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The All New 12/13 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
+6
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
+7
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
+8
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+9
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
get well soon Noz - you're snowHeads MVP
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+10
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
That sucks nozawaonsen, hope you're fit again soon!
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
+11

Really sorry to hear that. Get well soon!
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+12

This thread and the odd visit to Netweather are my main forecasting fixes. Get well soon.
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+13
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
nozawaonsen, hope you make a good recovery and can get back on the slopes before too long!
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
The last of the UK snow is passing over the Pennines. Europe is getting dumped on right now! (Pink indicates snowfall)


http://nwcsaf.smhi.se/metop/metop02_20121208_1022_31848/metop02_20121208_1022_31848_satproj_00000_01079_avhrr.ch_06_16_11.png
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Many thanks for all the nice comments! Really cheers me up! I'll spare you the details, but on the plus side the pain killers are nice and strong.

Also good is the snowfall! Have a look at this chart.

Snow depth percentage of long-term mean values

Large swathes of Switzerland with 2 to 3 even 4 times the amount of snow depth you'd expect at this time of year.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Looks like some very cold temperatures overnight, particularly in the east, with clearer skies overhead.

Arlberg meteogram.



Snow in the northern Alps from Sunday evening through Tuesday, before clearing up again.

Mid month looks milder (or rather not so abnormally cold), though GFS FI saw a return to colder than average temperatures and further snowfall later in the month.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Basically, we're set up for the whole season again just like last year!

I'll rather miss the 'will there be enough snow' angst. Heigh ho, just have to re-focus on 'will there be enough sun' instead Toofy Grin
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
+14.

On the up side you'll have more time to write for this forum Happy

Get well soon
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
red 27 wrote:
Basically, we're set up for the whole season again just like last year!

I'll rather miss the 'will there be enough snow' angst. Heigh ho, just have to re-focus on 'will there be enough sun' instead Toofy Grin


Indeed, I'm resigned to the fact I'll have an awful week in Val, all that snow..
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Hope some of that snow in the Northern Alps finds it's way down to the Southern Alps too.

Got a workout today in 2 feet of fresh Cascade powder. Up North the resorts were reporting over 3 feet in 24 hour period. It's been a great December and it's only Dec. 7th! Very Happy
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nozawaonsen, I've been following this thread religiously over the last few weeks as I'm heading out to Les Deux Alpes next weekend and the service you provide is second to none. Wishing you a very speedy recovery.
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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http://youtube.com/v/5Imps6XcmA0

Here's some ensembles...

Chamonix.

The Arlberg.

Hintertux.

Bad Gastein.

Sestriere.

Folgaria.

Zermatt.

Cairngorm.

Hemsedal.

Eastern Pyrenees.

Les Deux Alpes.



You can see here the very cold temperatures over the next few days, before a warm up towards more seasonal, but still cold temperatures. As the Atlantic builds up mid month the possibility of further snow for the western Alps increases (though more something to watch at this stage).

This same Atlantic push means the likelihood of extended very cold weather for the UK next week has reduced quite a bit, but it still looks cold on Tuesday.

Looking further out some suggestions (more so in the 06z which will update above in 90 minutes or so) of cooler than average weather returning to the Alps as we approach Christmas.
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A good summary as usual Noz.

wishing you a spedy recovery back to sliding fitness.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
WRF showing snow this evening focused on eastern Switzerland and the Tirol.

Sunday 1800z

http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=CE&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=36#model

Monday 0300z - heavy in the Arlberg

http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=CE&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=45#model

Monday 2100z - pretty much the same areas picking up the snow (a little lighter during the day)

http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=CE&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=63#model

Tuesday 0600z - calming down.

http://www.meteocenter.eu/index.php?id=regions&region=CE&section=precip&forecast=Snow&time=72#model

Much lighter then clearing by Thursday.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
nozawaonsen, sorry to be so late in sending you very best wishes for a speedy recovery. Hope you get some skiing before the season ends.
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Beatles in Obertauern! Reading 'your' thread for a few years now nosawaonsen. Have a speedy recovery. Taking my middle daughter back skiiing after a triple ligament injury a couple of years back, which occured in Obertauern!
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12z GFS sees the Atlantic rolling back in at the end of the week.



And as that warmer, moist air hits the cold air over the continent... you get snow. So after tomorrow's snow (strongest in the eastern and central Alps) it looks like mid week may be a calmer spell, before further snowfall at the end of the week. Temperatures dipping again in the run up to Christmas.
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nozawaonsen, sorry to hear of injury, speedy recovery. I can report snowfall at present in Luxembourg, a little wet but sticking to the minor roads. I'm done for driving today but suspect tomorrow could be an interesting drive southeastwards through germany and austria, on the plus side I should be skiing powder Tuesday, though technically I'm scheduled for non-skiing activities, some agile management will sort out the most valuable task - powder.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
waynos, good luck with the rest of the journey. Should be clearing by Wednesday in Schladming.

With more snow on the way I thought this might be worth flagging.

Avalanche Training, Confidence and Risk Perception

"... victims with basic formal training exposed themselves to more hazard than any other group, including those with no awareness of avalanches."

Mind you people tooling about too fast, on piste, early season, without thinking can also make poor calls...
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Hope you have good recovery Noz. Thanks for all your good work
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
i see snow-forecast are follwing this thread, there 6pm update (out about 7) follows Noz the omnipotents' view Very Happy
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Glad to see signs of colder weather returning later in the month. Also looks like a fair bit of precipitation 14/15/16th, hope it holds up in the next few runs.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Quote:

nozawaonsen, sorry to be so late in sending you very best wishes for a speedy recovery. Hope you get some skiing before the season ends.

+1
Quote:

looks like a fair bit of precipitation 14/15/16th, hope it holds up in the next few runs.

be careful what you wish for.... looks a tad warm.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
We got a big hit overnight in Lenggries. Must have had 8-10" of new snow so far and still snowing hard. I would imagine most of the Tirol is also getting this and so an already good ski situation is likely to be awesome later this week.


Last edited by Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person on Mon 10-12-12 9:55; edited 1 time in total
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Someone let the dumpasaurusrex out of it's cage, it's hooning down here...
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Looking forward to next weekend it looks pretty snowy from Friday with snow continuing through Monday.

Temperatures will be quite a bit warmer than they currently are (mind you it's cold now).

It's too far out to tell at this stage, but I would imagine freezing levels reaching up to 1500m at times, though falling as fronts pass through. Something to keep an eye on.

Week after currently looks a little below average, with further snow.
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I hope it does not get too high a freezing level. I am off to the 3 Valleys this coming weekend don't want all that lovely powder ruined by rain !Crying or Very sad fingers toes crossed !

Wishing you a speedy recovery nozawaonsen.
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been snowing since last night and still going on here in Val D'Isere. 15cm overnight and they are calling for another 10-15 during the day. If I read my GFS correctly, GFS didn't pick up on this precipitation at all??

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harri20000, As am I! We can only hope....

I'm sure it'll be fine! Puzzled
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
kitenski, three points, firstly the location of that chart is on the Italian side some distance (relatively) from Val d'Isere. Enough to mean it is not going to give you fine detail. Secondly GFS resolution doesn't really do fine detail, you need something finer like WRF (which was showing snow for where you are today, finally and related to those two points I don't know that GFS ensembles are going to tell you much about orthographic lift. So short term I tend to look at the weather part of the avalanche forecasts.
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Hmmm, don't like this: http://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/Les-Deux-Alpes/6day/bot[/img]
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nozawaonsen, Sorry to hear you're crocked - get well soon!

This might be of interest ...

I was trying to find the site which produces the "MeteoGramm" you posted on Saturday. I failed but I stumbled across this site

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=006610

Using the Google Maps link at top right, you can generate outputs for various locations worldwide. Is it something you've seen before?
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