October-November-December temperatures to be average in the western Alps, slightly warmer than average in the eastern Alps, with Scotland average or possibly warmer than average.
October-November-December precipitation look pretty much average.
Back to June in the Alps and in contrast to much of winter and spring it is looking rather wet for the time of year, which could bring more snow to the glaciers over the coming week.
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Klaus Wolter at NOAA has updated his MEI/ENSO index, seeing a sharp upwards shift away from La Nina conditions, but still arguing that a return to La Nina conditions later in the year remains a possibility.
"With its unprecedented one-month rise for this time of year, La Niña conditions have actually almost expired in the MEI sense, making ENSO-neutral conditions the safest bet for the next few months. However, a relapse into La Niña conditions is not at all off the table, based on the reasoning I gave in September 2010 - big La Niña events have a strong tendency to re-emerge after 'taking time off' during northern hemispheric summer, as last seen in 2008."
Meteo France have put together an interesting review of snowfall last season.
- A promising start to the season.
- Snowfall started early (which seemed to auger well).
- By the end of November snowfall across the mountains was equal to or above normal.
- But the remarkable winter drought which followed particularly in the Northern Alps meant snowfall was well below normal.
- Seventh driest 2010/2011 period in last 50 years in Northern Alps, third driest in Pre Alps.
- April brought almost summer like temperatures, and rapid melting of an already thin snow base.
- The snow disappeared almost a month earlier than average.
The NOAA/CFS probability forecast has also now been updated to add January to March, more thoughts on that later (but CFS has been hinting at a slightly wetter picture over winter of late)[/url]
Last edited by Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see? on Tue 21-06-11 9:47; edited 1 time in total
CFS mean now suggesting a borderline weak La Nina developing over the coming winter.
JAMSTEC continues to see a deeper La Nina developing over a similar period.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Taking a look at how the CFS charts have been swinging back and forth... In general there has been a slight drift towards colder than average weather over the Alps, and slightly wetter than average. It would be good to see this trend consolidate over summer!
Pre season (October, November, December).
Scotland- Split between average temperatures and colder than average. Looking drier than average.
Western Alps - Colder than average ahead of average, wetter than average, ahead of average.
Eastern Alps - Colder than average and wetter than average.
Southern French Alps/North East Italy - Colder than average and wetter than average ahead of average precipitation.
Early Winter (November, December, January).
Scotland - Colder than average and drier than average.
Western Alps - Colder than average, precipitation split between wetter than average and average.
Eastern Alps - Colder than average, wetter than average just ahead of average precipitation.
Southern French Alps/North East Italy - Colder than average, wetter than average just ahead of average precipitation.
Winter (December, January, February).
Scotland - Warmer than average, average precipitation just ahead of drier than average.
Western Alps - Colder than average, average precipitation.
Eastern Alps - Colder than average, wetter than average.
Southern French Alps/North East Italy - Colder than average, wetter than average.
Late Winter (January, February, March) [initial runs]
Scotland - Average or warmer than average, drier than average.
Western Alps - Colder or average temperatures, wetter than average or average precipitation.
Eastern Alps - Average or warmer than average, average precipitation.
Southern French Alps/North East Italy - Average temperature, average precipitation.
The IRI seasonal forecast is also reaching out into October-November-December now. And by and large sees the Alps as having average precipitation and temperatures.
Rain coming across a lot of the Alps over the next day. Cooler temperatures in the east should mean quite a bit of fresh snow at the top of Hintertux and Stubai glaciers.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
nozawaonsen, fantastic posts as always, keep them coming, only 3 days to the solstice!
After all it is free
After all it is free
nozawaonsen, robboj, it's been hissing down for the best part of 24 hours and still no end in sight! My only consolation is that it is so cold here at 800m ASL that it must be dumping down on the glaciers
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Samerberg Sue, its been hissing down here for about 24 days!
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robboj, OK but you have a plentiful supply of moisture near by - with this wind direction the nearest ocean is over 1000kms away!
It has finally stopped Gott sei Dank, but it is sooooooo cold! Bring on the snow please, there has to be some compensation for getting Autumn weather in June
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
Samerberg Sue, as long as you don't get June weather in Autumn
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
robboj, with the way things have been this past year - who knows!
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
robboj, yup from about quarter past five on Tuesday evening, the days are getting shorter...
In the meantime it looks rather like temperatures will rally over the Alps over over the next few days before becoming quite cold at the end of the week particularly in the eastern Alps, and possibly bringing snow down to around 2000m again (looking like it could bring quite a bit at altitude in Austria).
Then possibly... getting a little warmer again for at least a short while, but not something I'd have much confidence in at this stage...
Which tends towards seeing neutral conditions persisting. As BOM comments CFS is now tipping towards a return towards weak La Nina conditions come winter.
Shorter term a colder end to the week in the Alps looks like being pursued by a spell of much warmer weather closing out June.
More generally it is worth noting that CFS' brief flirtation with a wetter winter in the Alps seems to be over and it is now returning to a drier outlook. No surprise to see it swinging back and forth. Whether it develops consistency over the coming months will perhaps be more telling... (colder than average or certainly not warmer than average across the Alps has been fairly consistent).
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Whilst for the timebeing it remains rather too mild in New Zealand...
Samerberg Sue, Mind you, IIRC was autumn 05 not a scorcher - right up until the end of October - and then it started - and didn't stop?
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
nozawaonsen wrote:
robboj, yup from about quarter past five on Tuesday evening, the days are getting shorter...
Aye..... the nights are fair drawin' in!!!
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Quick glance at how the last month has shifted some of the patterns in place over winter and spring over the Alps... Primarily because the first month of summer has been rather wet. Figures are rough. Summarised from NOAA.
Bourg St Maurice: last 30 days precipitation +130% of normal (wonder if I have that right?) bringing 90 day figure even with dry spring, to +15% of normal. Temperatures up too. +1C 30 days, +2.8C 90 days.
Bregenz: 30 day precipitation +60%, 90 day +5%. 30 day temp +1.3C, 90 day temp +2.4C.
Radstadt: 30 day precipitation + 55%, 90 day + 20%. 30 day temp +2.1C, 90 day temp +2.9C.
So June looking like it will have been quite a bit wetter than average (certainly compared to drought like conditions in spring) and slightly warmer than average (but not nearly as warm as earlier in spring).
Looks like a few days of hot weather on way. Then breaking down and cooler from around midweek.
Worth taking a look at "So will it rain tomorrow?" in the FT if your interested in a view of how the Met Office works.
Talks about the impact of ensemble forecasts, the difficulty of communicating probability forecasts and how better modelling of "blocking highs," ENSO "latest research shows that... El Nino tends to produce... cold winters in northern Europe" [I'd be interested to see a bit more on the source for this... seems to want to link it to -AO, -NAO] and impact of solar weather could improve seasonal forecasting.
Also gives a little boost to ECM - "particularly accurate." Apparently.
[edit: I do wonder though if the writer meant jet rather than gulf stream and may have mixed El Nino and La Nina?]
Last edited by You need to Login to know who's really who. on Wed 29-06-11 7:30; edited 1 time in total
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
nozawaonsen, I’ve been reading and enjoying your posts for the last year, thank you for your continuing efforts. I’d be interested in your views (and the views of others who know something about weather forecasting) on a couple of points:-
The FT article you linked to referred briefly to the possibility of cold winters because of a reduction in sun spot activity, as in the Maunder minimum and the Little Ice Age. What are your thoughts on this.
Secondly, I’d be interested to know if, in retrospect, there was any hint of the exceptionally warm dry winter and spring (at least in the Western Alps) we’ve just had in the long term forecasts last year. My recollection was that for most the season the forecasts went along the lines of ‘no snow for the next few days, maybe something in a couple of weeks’, with the possibility of snow being pushed back to later in the season on each update. Did anyone get close to an accurate overview before the season began?
Spud9, The sunspots question is interesting. There are a couple of good New Scientist articles on this from a while back linked at the top of the second page of the thread. I certainly think it looks worth watching. The Stuart Clark article is interesting, particularly Mike Lockward's thoughts on blocking. A meandering jetstream, leads to more blocking over Europe in winter leading to colder winters for Europe. It may be however that in the long run any cooling simply offsets warming for a while. It's a tricky area not least because it is so politicised.
As for last year, my sense was that there was a growing consensus (certainly not a full consensus) towards a cold and dry start to winter across several of the models and forecasts by October which started showing itself in August. That said it goes without saying that seasonal forecasts do not have a strong record and I would treat them pretty carefully. Still it will be interesting to see whether there is any consensus forming towards the end of summer.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
nozawaonsen, Thanks for that.I've done some more reading, it's obvious that there's a huge amount of disagreement about the whole sunspots thing, and its effects on global/regional weather patterns. Something to keep watching I think.
If this did come off (and it is obviously a long way out so I wouldn't take it very seriously at this stage) it would suggest an increased chance of colder weather across Europe including the UK. And of course depending where any blocking high did establish itself could also suggest an increased chance of drier weather across Europe as the Atlantic is shut out.
The latest monthly CFS temperature anomaly charts show colder than average temperatures primarily over Central and Eastern Europe and Scandinavia in late autumn and early winter.
At the same time the CFS ENSO mean has been shifting more and more towards La Nina conditions reasserting themselves through Autumn in Winter.
There is some research to suggest an increased occurrence of northern blocking during winters with La Nina conditions, though a fair amount of variability too.
Last edited by After all it is free on Tue 5-07-11 20:57; edited 2 times in total
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The last couple of weeks have seen quite a shift in a number of the CFS indicators including the ESNO mean which has strengthened even in the last few days and if it proved right would see La Nina conditions returning as soon as September.
At the same time the CFS three monthly probability forecasts have swung quite hard towards the following pattern.
- Cold early winter and pre season, especially in the eastern Alps.
- But dry, more so in the east than west and especially so in the southern Alps where there is a strong signal for drier than average weather all through winter.
- After a cold early winter Scotland generally looks wetter and warmer than average through much of winter.
In comparison to the previous fortnight that's quite a swing away from the wetter forecast and of course consistency is what you want for confidence rather than swings back and forth. There is though quite a bit of consistency starting to develop around a colder than average winter at least from CFS. Anyway it will be interesting to see whether the next few weeks stick with the current pattern or switch once more...
Pre season (October, November, December).
Scotland- Colder than average, average precipitation.
Western Alps - Colder than average, wetter than average.
Eastern Alps - Colder than average, wetter than average.
Southern French Alps/North East Italy - Colder than average and wetter than average ahead of average precipitation.
Early Winter (November, December, January).
Scotland - Colder than average and average precipitation.
Western Alps - Colder than average, drier than average.
Eastern Alps - Colder than average, drier than average.
Southern French Alps/North East Italy - Colder than average, drier than average.
Winter (December, January, February).
Scotland - Warmer than average, average precipitation just ahead of wetter than average.
Western Alps - Colder than average, average precipitation.
Eastern Alps - Colder than average, drier than average.
Southern French Alps/North East Italy - Colder than average, drier than average.
Late Winter (January, February, March)
Scotland - Average or warmer than average, wetter than average.
Western Alps - Colder than temperatures, average precipitation.
Eastern Alps - Colder than average, drier than average..
Southern French Alps/North East Italy - Colder than average, drier than average.
JAMSTEC has of course been showing colder and drier over winter for a number of months now.
robboj, flipping back to your earlier point Autumn 2005 in Austria did indeed start warmer than average (figures from ZAMG).
September - Consistently warmer than average (+0.5 to 2.0C)
October - Despite cold snaps mid month, temperatures in much of Austria were above average (+0.5 to 1.5C) especially in the final third of the month.
November - Colder than average in parts of Austria (-0.5 to 1.5C), including Tirol, spreading from mid month. Record snowfall in Carinthia and Southern Salzburg. Despite often quite dry conditions across the country.
December - 0.5 to 1.5C colder than average, widespread above average snowfall.
January - Very cold (-1.5C to 3C colder).
February - Cold (-0.5 to 2.0C colder than average). Rainfall about 75% average, though above average in parts of Carinthia.
That said a warmer than average Autumn in itself doesn't lead to a colder than average Winter.
Separately an interesting graph from Val d'Isere (apologies if it has been posted on another thread), showing accumulated snowfall at Val d'Isere from 71/72 to 09/10 which was getting some discussion on skipass.com. Slightly complicated by not knowing where the actual measurements were being recorded.
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nozawaonsen wrote:
robboj, flipping back to your earlier point Autumn 2005 in Austria did indeed start warmer than average (figures from ZAMG).
September - Consistently warmer than average (+0.5 to 2.0C)
October - Despite cold snaps mid month, temperatures in much of Austria were above average (+0.5 to 1.5C) especially in the final third of the month.
November - Colder than average in parts of Austria (-0.5 to 1.5C), including Tirol, spreading from mid month. Record snowfall in Carinthia and Southern Salzburg. Despite often quite dry conditions across the country.
December - 0.5 to 1.5C colder than average, widespread above average snowfall.
January - Very cold (-1.5C to 3C colder).
February - Cold (-0.5 to 2.0C colder than average). Rainfall about 75% average, though above average in parts of Carinthia.
That said a warmer than average Autumn in itself doesn't lead to a colder than average Winter.
I remember walking in the Pinzgau in late October in shorts and a T-shirt. A few days later I would have been dead inside an hour, it changed from literal summer (to a Scotsman) to full on winter in a matter of days.
IME people in Salzburgerland still talk of that winter as (for want of a better expression) the last 'big winter' and that those since have been adequate at best.
I know we cant reliably 'pattern match' the weather but the last few autumns have had early cold and snow and overall been quite promising and the winter hasn't delivered (in 05/06 terms) So, maybe a long warm autumn will lead to something else?
It certainly will be nail biting to wait and see, I'm going just after Xmas this year which is earlier than usual for me. So I really hope these predictions of early winter being colder and wetter than average are true!
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
robboj, guess we'll see how it develops over the coming months. I would want to see a pattern holding for quite a period before I began to have any sense of confidence in it...
The SLF website has some interesting historical data on it (flagged up on skipass.com). In particular the Weissfluhjoch monitoring site near Davos is worth a look. Here's a summary of some of the findings (roughly translated).
- So far climate change hasn't had any influence on winter snow cover at this altitude (2540m ASL)
- Average annual rainfall is 1200mm, 75% of which falls as snow.
- Highest snow depth recorded was 366cm on 09 March 1945.
- Snow depth on 01 January has oscillated between 38cm (1944) to 222cm (1975)
- The average date the first snow arrives is 18 October (the extremes being 06 September 1984 and 25 November 1983) [presumably the start of continuous winter coverage]
- The average date the snow cover completely melts is 09 July (the extremes being 03 June 1947 and 15 August 1983)
There is also a round up of winter in the Swiss Alps.
Unsurprisingly the pattern was very similar to elsewhere in the Alps. Early pre season snow fall, very cold December, followed by a very dry and increasingly warm finish to winter into spring. There is quite an interesting commentary (in French and German) going through month by month comparing weather with reported avalanches.
Back to winter 2011/2012 and there have been musings about colder winter weather for the UK on both TWO:
"Talking of winter, as I’ve said before don’t write off the possibility of winter 2011/12 being cold, just because the last 3 have been. If the odds of landing a head are 60% when you toss a coin, and you get 3 heads in succession, do you think probability suggests the fourth throw will give you a tail? It doesn’t it suggests you are more likely to throw a head again. Think about it…"
"Just been revisiting prospects for Winter 2011/12 for some clients, and I think you'll need plenty of warm clothes lined up! We'll have more on Weatheronline for you in the coming weeks."
We'll see I guess.
In the meantime still a bit more good weather to enjoy in the UK before it turns wetter in the second half of the week. So maybe don't rush back to work tomorrow?
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
NOAA/CPC weekly ENSO update is sticking with "ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue at least through the Northern
Hemisphere summer 2011." But does note that positive temperature anomalies in the Pacific are now decreasing.
Whilst "a majority of the ENSO models, and all three multi-model outlooks, predict ENSO-neutral conditions (Niño-3.4 SST anomalies between -0.5C and +0.5C ) to continue into early 2012," both CFS models are predicting La Nina conditions returning in April.
Meanwhile MSP have produced their own take on La Nina...
Over at TVmountain.com "Le Boss" is going for a high pressure dominated November and cold, dry and sunny November and December over the French Alps- "peu de neige pour le moment."
Colder than average in the far east and north of Europe. Wetter than average in the northeast of Europe and the Mediterranean. The Alps look fairly close to average.
Colder than average in the eastern half of Europe. Milder than average the nearer you are to the Atlantic. Drier further north, wetter nearer the Mediterranean. The Alps look fairly close to average.
lachainemeteo.com incidentally comment "Il semble possible que l'on s'oriente vers un automne à nouveau sec..."
Meanwhile ZAMG have produced some graphs for last winter and spring in Austria based on HISTALP data.
No surprises really, but it puts last season into a broader context, average temperature (very cold December of course counter balanced by the rest of winter) and dry winter, followed by very warm and dry spring.
"... over the last couple of weeks, forecasts created by [CFS] have begun to indicate the re-emergence of La Niña during Northern Hemisphere fall 2011... the possibility of a return to La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011 has increased over the past month. However, ENSO-neutral remains most likely into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011, with most models and all multi-model forecasts predicting ENSO-neutral to continue through early 2012."
Klaus Wolter meanwhile argues the odds of a return to La Nina territory from autumn are "better than 50/50."
Also thought it worth linking to the IOP's news release on Lockwood et al's paper on solar activity and winter:
""Considering all possibilities for how the sun will evolve, the overall likelihood of colder winters in the UK is set to rise by 15%.”
But Lockwood stresses that recent press reports that we are heading for a “little ice age” are completely inconsistent with his research..."
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Could be some stormy weather crossing Europe over the next week as the Atlantic mounts a charge and some cold air heads south.
First off heading towards Bastille Day, have a look at ESTOFEX (European Storm Forecast Experiment) and click on extended forecast- possibility of significant hail and severe wind gusts. This could sideswipe parts of the UK (west and far south east by the looks of it) tomorrow evening.
And then next Sunday to Monday parts of the Alps could see some snow at altitude and there could also be a very rainy start to the weekend in the UK (obviously this far out that could easily all change).
NASA have updated their experimental seasonal climate forecasts and they now cover early winter.
Currently they forecast:
November-December-January temperatures with a cold anomaly centred over... the Alps!
November-December-January precipitation looks to be average.
[links don't work for some reason, so if you want to look put "NASA experimental seasonal climate forecasts" in your search engine, then click on "Atm. Seasonal Forecast" on the left hand side].
Back to July in the Alps and it looks like some pretty unseasonal weather on the way at the weekend with snow possibly down to about 2300m in places on Monday.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Good updates, noza.
It looks like it might be a similar season to the previous one.
The NOAA/CFS probability forecast has also now been updated to add February to April more thoughts on that later.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Mid month CFS probability forecast round up...
- Colder than average for the season earlier in winter.
- Drier than average throughout the season in the south.
- Becoming warmer and drier than average for the season towards spring
Pre season (October, November, December).
Scotland- Colder than average. Looking drier than average.
Western Alps - Average ahead of colder than average, average precipitation.
Eastern Alps - Average and average.
Southern French Alps/North East Italy - Average temperature and drier than average.
Early Winter (November, December, January).
Scotland - Colder than average, drier than average.
Western Alps - Colder than average, drier than average.
Eastern Alps - Colder than average, drier than average.
Southern French Alps/North East Italy - Colder than average, drier than average.
Winter (December, January, February).
Scotland - Average ahead of colder, average precipitation.
Western Alps - Average and average.
Eastern Alps - Colder than average, average ahead of drier than average.
Southern French Alps/North East Italy -Average ahead of colder than average, drier than average.
Late Winter (January, February, March)
Scotland - Warmer than average, average precipitation.
Western Alps - Warmer than average temperatures, average precipitation.
Eastern Alps - Average temperature, drier than average
Southern French Alps/North East Italy - Average temperature ahead of warmer than average, drier than average.
Early Spring (February, March, April) [initial two runs]
Scotland - Warmer than average, drier than average.
Western Alps - Warmer than average, drier than average.
Eastern Alps - Warmer than average, drier than average.
Southern French Alps/North East Italy - Warmer than average, drier than average.
After all it is free
After all it is free
For a bit of fun in amongst the rather unseasonably autumnal weather at present... trying to pull some of this together for the Alps... (remembering not to take this very seriously, seasonal forecasts have a poor record, etc - feel free to disagree!).
Colder than average winter?
- CFS has been cycling back and forth between a colder than average and average winter in the Alps. The trend for colder than average seems to be stronger in early winter.
- JAMSTEC has consistently being seeing a colder than average winter across Europe.
- NASA is suggesting a cold anomaly over the Alps in early winter.
- IRI sees an average winter over the Alps.
Winter blocking? (cutting off the Atlantic, bringing cold in from the north and east).
- CFS suggestion of blocking in December.
- Beijing Climate Centre sees blocking in winter.
- NASA see some blocking over winter.
Drier than average winter?
- CFS has largely been shifting back and forth between drier and average. A stronger signal for drier weather to the east and even more so to the south.
- JAMSTEC started drier for winter, but has been shifting more towards average.
- IRI sees average.
- NASA sees average.
Obviously still far too off in the distance for any confidence...
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Looks like pretty subdued temperatures and unsettled weather across the Alps (and indeed much of Europe) for the coming week.
Which should bring some fresh snow to the Alpine glaciers.
Temperatures for summer so far in the Alps have been running above average (+1 to 2C), but the unseasonably cool temperatures over the coming week looks like they will push these closer towards average.
Nice piece in Meteo France discussing the remarkably hot and dry first half of 2011 in France.
April stands out with +4.0C and 29% of the precipitation.
But as they say this is no indicator of how the second half of the year will play out.
JAMSTEC's July commentary mentioned that their "model again shows that the La Nina condition would return back in fall and persist out to 2012." Looking across the models neutral still seems to be the most favoured outlook, but there is momentum towards a weak La Nina.
Eventually of course with enough attempts one of the forecasts will be right...
[edited to add glacier comment]
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nozawaonsen, July 25th in the Alps sunny for the week
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