 brian
brian
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Just had a looksee at snowforecasts and we are getting over 10cms dump on 31st Jan at Kranjs!!!!! About time!!! Hopefully, it'll hang around during Feb!
My brother took off for Switzerland today. No idea where he is going, but he said its deep there.....
Fx
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| Quote: |
| looksee at snowforecasts and we are getting over 10cms dump on 31st Jan at Kranjs!!!!! |
Oh... well if snowforecast have said it then obviously it must be true... 
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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We shall see; I have no idea how to read these flashy website Carled.....
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Fruity, sweet, i predicted this over a week ago! pretty pleased with myself..... 
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..from what i can see it doesn't look so good for the dolomites? ... anyone got a thought on htat one?
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brian
brian
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| abar1990 wrote: |
| Fruity, sweet, i predicted this over a week ago! pretty pleased with myself..... |
Yes, what a weather god you truly are... Just in case you've forgotten, just refer to your original post in which you say:
| Quote: |
| but they're predicting -18 on the 2nd feb with 4 days of continous snow, its a long way off, but have found that this website, even this far off is quite accurate. |
and now your post I've quoted above from yesterday and now look at your favourite super-accurate weather-site again and note how, curiously enough, the forecast for Feb 2nd is now somewhat different to what it was "over a week ago" (strange - this site is meant to be "quite accurate" even this far off...) and then again how different it is from when 10cm of snow was predicted...
This is exactly the kind of nonsense that gets posted on here month on month, year on year and all it does is falsely raise the expectations of those who struggle to comprehend the vagaries of the weather whereby -18c can become +1c in a short space of time.
I'm not saying it WON'T snow at KG (or anywhere else) around the turn of the month, but anyone thinking that ANY of these sites that translates trends into empirical values (i.e. turning "it looks like there'll be a good amount of precipitation around" into "there will be 19.4cm of snow on the 2nd Feb" for example) is deluding themselves and, by posting supportive comments on forums such as these, more worryingly is deluding others.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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carled, firm, but fair...
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brian
brian
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To clarify my somewhat downbeat assessment above. I still think we're in for a burst of cold and snowy weather with Scotland (and actually most of the UK could see a bit of the white stuff) first in the firing line, followed by the alps a couple of days later, but it doesn't look like it's going to last more than a few days, whereas at one stage it was shaping up into a nice little mini ice age. Ah well, ho hum ...
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carled, thankyou for the early morning rant, everybody appreciates your patronizing tone. It would be nice if you could keep comments like these:
(to fruity)...'Oh... well if snowforecast have said it then obviously it must be true... '
...to yourself, it shows a complete condescending manner to other 'less experienced' snowheads.
I am unexperienced in this field but my prediction still shows precipitation and a cool period for that time, so i dont really see how im that far off, especially when i mentioned it a week ago in the middle of a warm spell,......of course things are going to change........ everybody knows that.
I will listen to the demeaning nature of your post and take some advice, but really.........if you havent got anything nice to say, dont say it at all..... alot of us are still learning.
Fortunatley i have a new obsession in watching weather, so i will still take a keen interest in this forum........on any other forum, i would of left due to people like you.
brian, Dont the gfs runs show a further cooling from the 5th onwards?  as long as we can get out of the warm spell then thats good for me! 
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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abar1990, I'm not even going to dignify that pile of tosh & vitriol with a response. You're beginning to sound suspiciously like a troll from about this time last year... don't feel you have to stay around here despite "people like me," will you? Love & kisses, carled
brian, Don't get me wrong, I'm, like you, disappointed at the sudden change around in the models that were looking spectacular and are now, what? merely very good! First week of Feb across most of the Alps looks like seeing a good amount of cold & snow about, maybe just not in the much larger quantities than were showing until recently. It does have to be noted that the 06z main run was, whilst not quite an outlier, at least one of the far warmest runs in the ensembles. I would be fascinated to know what seems to be the innate ability of the GFS system in particular to unerringly fasten onto any mild conditions up to two weeks away with complete accuracy, whereas any cold spells progged at the same distance always seem to end up being massively downgraded nearer the time. It would be nice to see it go the other way for once... 
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Poster: A snowHead
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Not sure whether you would agree but in my experience there is a worrying trend in all this forecasting. Not sure I was sitting worrying about mild Alpine winters in years gone by.
Anyway 5days+ looks better, for now.
If this doesn't come off I am not sure where we will be.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| Quote: |
| Not sure I was sitting worrying about mild Alpine winters in years gone by. |
Neither was I, but maybe that was in part because there was not so much data, and so much conjecture, floating around for non-specialists like me to look at for free. So far this year, I have been skiing since 5 January and conditions have been absolutely excellent. Some sun, plenty of sun actually, but also small but useful snowfalls every now and then. I distinctly remember January skiing, over many years (because it's the cheapest time we always used to go in January) and having very poor snow in Serbia, very poor snow in the Portes du Soleil, not very good snow in Alpbach, etc etc. And some very mild weather too, as well as some perishing cold times.
abar1990, said
| Quote: |
| alot of us are still learning. |
Indeed we are. And we can learn more from careful reading of what people like Brian and Carled have to say, than by presuming that any forecast number of centimetres of snow, on any forecasting site, a week or so ahead, is something that "will happen". The more "professional" forecasts, such as meteo France or the UK Met Office, very rarely quantify amounts of precipitation. The numbers coming out of snow-forecast etc are just crunched by a computer. I have been watching snow-forecast, and the actual Alpine weather, for 6 winters now. I can assure you that it is extremely rare that the actual amount forecast - even two days before - actually falls. I am also happy to say that, in the case of snow-forecast, it almost always chucks down more than they predict. That has certainly been the case here since mid-December.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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red 27, i must agree with you.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| carled wrote: |
| Quote: |
| looksee at snowforecasts and we are getting over 10cms dump on 31st Jan at Kranjs!!!!! |
Oh... well if snowforecast have said it then obviously it must be true... |
well I'm feeling like a naughty schoolgirl.........
this place has changed since I last visited snowheads... I came for advice, cos I thought that people would be friendly and helpful. I am sure if you are talented in the ways of meteorological forecasting, then trawling through the 20 or so pages of this thread would be entirely helpful. But, Kranjs hadnt been mentioned....so I had no interest in the rest of Europe....it only sought to depress me, as I knew I should have booked Austria or Italy where we have had tried and tested snow in march in previous years....
I wasnt expecting to be in any way patronised for my lack of degree level knowledge of weather systems in Europe. Sadly, I'm just someone who is looking forward to my holiday and praying for snow. Pretty much like everyone else I guess.
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Fruity, when something happens in KG, ill start a thread, and keep u informed!
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Thanks Abar1990......
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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ECM back on track tonight, although 12Z GFS back tracks. Suggest there is little real idea what happens as we enter Feb.
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lisach, what does this mean? 
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| Fruity wrote: |
well I'm feeling like a naughty schoolgirl.........
this place has changed since I last visited snowheads... I came for advice, cos I thought that people would be friendly and helpful. I am sure if you are talented in the ways of meteorological forecasting, then trawling through the 20 or so pages of this thread would be entirely helpful. But, Kranjs hadnt been mentioned....so I had no interest in the rest of Europe....it only sought to depress me, as I knew I should have booked Austria or Italy where we have had tried and tested snow in march in previous years....
I wasnt expecting to be in any way patronised for my lack of degree level knowledge of weather systems in Europe. Sadly, I'm just someone who is looking forward to my holiday and praying for snow. Pretty much like everyone else I guess. |
I'm sorry if it came across like that Fruity. On one of your points, KG is rarely mentioned on here because I'm afraid relatively few snowheads (that I can tell) actually go there. Snowheads is very similar to other forums in that there are "search" and "sticky" functions... you could search for information on KG and you could have used the sticky function to see the "beginners guide to forecasting" thread on here and saved youself the need to trawl through all twenty pages.
I think it's important to stamp on the "snowforecast say x cm" as soon as they appear, because otherwise we get the next novice user seeing your post and not seeing it refuted, therefore believing it, then it (if you'll pardon the pun) snowballs and we get a whole ramp of overexcited people reporting 5 different sites reporting 10 different levels of cm of snow in 2 days and we're all going to hell in a handcart. Mainly BECAUSE, as you say, all of us going away skiing hope desperately for snow. But hoping for it doesn't make it happen and posting stuff on here based on what known erroneous sites are making is really not going to help much, I'm afraid...
SH is a friendly place to those that take advice offered in the right spirit. Like any friendly environment, there is a certain amount of mickey-taking done, some of which is not intended to be mean-spirited. Take a look at the "SCGB plagiarising again" thread in "the piste" for an example of a good old snowheads row...
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Brian please tell me there is to be fresh tracks in Chamonix for week coommencing the 2nd feb like the forcasts I have seen.
I know alot can change in that period of time but I cant help getting a little excitied 
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You know it makes sense.
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Thanks guys....I felt a bit chastised there for a moment.....
ah well, its amazing how a roast pork dinner can cheer you up.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Fruity, what is it about Pork that puts a smile on ones face... hey ho... back to the weather... It's 'big boys' on here fruity, carled may not be the most...er... gentle of posters on SH, but goddamn he knows some weird s*** about the weather - just don't mention the 'punter' weather sites. we've all done it - and all felt the heat of the Great Mans wrath 
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Poster: A snowHead
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Fruity, hello there m'dear! (It's all Fruity's fault I found Snowheads at all )
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Oh no... I've been barking at eng_ch's friend... I'm sorry (btw eng_ch... that ski trip we pm'd about is now looking like up to 14 people could be involved! Might be a bit of a squeeze for your place! I'm getting everyone to sort out how TRULY interested they are before going any further... )
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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carled, good luck with that 
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| carled wrote: |
I think it's important to stamp on the "snowforecast say x cm" as soon as they appear, because otherwise we get the next novice user seeing your post and not seeing it refuted, therefore believing it, then it (if you'll pardon the pun) snowballs and we get a whole ramp of overexcited people reporting 5 different sites reporting 10 different levels of cm of snow in 2 days and we're all going to hell in a handcart. Mainly BECAUSE, as you say, all of us going away skiing hope desperately for snow. But hoping for it doesn't make it happen and posting stuff on here based on what known erroneous sites are making is really not going to help much, I'm afraid...
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Carled, do you not think that "amounts" forecast can give an indication as to what may happen when they all concur a few days out? ie if 5 sites are saying 1-5cm, then you can assume some light snow may fall, it may be 10cm, it maybe 1cm, but odds on it's not going to "dump" for days...
Similarly if 5 sites are saying 50cm a day for 5 days, then odds on it may well dump a fair bit over the coming days...
regards,
Greg
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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| dk100 wrote: |
Fruity,  Can't see what you said to deserve that verbal onslaught. Not all act like that, thank God  |
Yep, just me. I'm such a rogue. You can tell I feel really chastised by your backhand wrist slap too, can't you dk100? Thanks for caring. Who's "God" btw?
kitenski, Yeah, I kind of agree with what you're saying, but that kind of thing isn't what was happening. We were getting the same old, "Snowforecast says we're getting 27cm of snow on Tuesday, wahoo!" followed by, "why does metcheck now say 3cm of snow?" followed by "Now it says 15cm of snow, wahoo again!" and so on... If people would spend 5 minutes only reading the first post or two in "a beginners guide to gfs forecasts" or whatever the sticky at the top of this section is called (and people don't need to think it's complex, it isn't) then MAYBE we'd get a bit more sanity and a lot fewer "how many cm of snow will I get in resort x on <insert>"...
Anyhow. You alpine folk, find something warm to wear very soon... there be a big cold a comin'
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Brian, How long does it generally take for a system to cross the atlantic from nova scotia to us? 2 weeks? or less.
Just been looking at this http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/5day_ensemble.asp and trying to figure out what's likely.
looks like lots of northerlies (for us) and easterlies (for the alps).
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brian
brian
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shoogly, that's what it's all about
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FAQ
... and the dreaded 'F' word at T+192.
