 Poster: A snowHead
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We certainly won't be moaning if the rules change if we are there it's a calculated gamble, we lost the last three weeks this year but difnt try and get any refunds from either the owner or lift pass nor will we this year if it goes oear shaped.
I doubt any of the ski resorts would survive with non native skiers, the brits make up a large percentage of skiers in many resorts
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| robs1 wrote: |
| ...I doubt any of the ski resorts would survive with non native skiers, the brits make up a large percentage of skiers in many resorts |
I woul say 'some' resorts, rather than 'many'. In most countries there are plenty of smaller resorts with very few brits at all.
From memory I think the UK provides only around 10% of the alpine skiing market, and other non-alpine countries perhaps a further 10%. With the exception of Austria (which would need support from Germany), alpine countries can probably manage comfortably for a few years with only native skiers.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Not looking for an argument but I looked up the numbers of skiers per country and germany is miles out in front but france is not that far in front of the uk which has more skiers than italy which surprised me, of course we are used to cold weather whereas lots of the french and italians dont like it, hence why we have always gone in Jan . I would agree that there are lots of small resorts that brits never go to, as we drive we try and visit these forca day especially this year as we were there for a long time we went to several during the brit half term as queues at the usual brit favourites were horrendous, we went to plaine joux one day and didnt see another uk car or hear any english all day.
Those resorts wouldn't care if the brits never went skiing but places like three valleys, paradiski etc would
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| ecureuil wrote: |
| robs1 wrote: |
| ...I doubt any of the ski resorts would survive with non native skiers, the brits make up a large percentage of skiers in many resorts |
I woul say 'some' resorts, rather than 'many'. In most countries there are plenty of smaller resorts with very few brits at all.
From memory I think the UK provides only around 10% of the alpine skiing market, and other non-alpine countries perhaps a further 10%. With the exception of Austria (which would need support from Germany), alpine countries can probably manage comfortably for a few years with only native skiers. |
Ahem,
Skiing in France is FUBAR without foreign visitors....
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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The fact that 70% of skiers in France are foreigners doesn't mean that 70% is equally spread across the hundreds of resorts. There aren't many foreigners in the Espace Diamant and few of them are Brits. A fair few Belgians and Dutch, and a smattering if Italians.
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It would be interesting to know if anyone had modelled the infection patterns in a typical ski resort against being at home. And I don't mean based on Winter 2019-20 but on the setup planned for Winter 20-21. A navette isn't going to be any worse than the bus to school; a télécabine isn't going to be any worse than a train commuting into work; a café/bar in the resort isn't going to be any different than a café/pub at home, and a piste is going to be a lot safer than being in the office/school. One possibility is perhaps that resorts start selling themselves as actually being safer than staying at home.
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@LaForet, I think they are quite different:
A local bus or train going into work is the same cohort of people, day after day, not a new, heterogeneous population from all around the world that evolves each week. I would see the same people on the same train each day when I used to commute.
So if I were to commute into work again, my number of unique contacts in a day would initially go up maybe 20x (guessing at the # of unique people I spend more than 2 minutes within 2m of). However, it's the same people, so over a month, my # unique contacts wouldn't really change much.
Conversely, if I were to get a bin each day in Chamonix, _each bin_ would be potentially 10-50 unique contacts, and it could easily exceed 1k within a week.
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| Quote: |
Conversely, if I were to get a bin each day in Chamonix, _each bin_ would be potentially 10-50 unique contacts, and it could easily exceed 1k within a week.
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And then they pass it to a couple on the plane home, who then each pass it to a few people... Not hard to see why international travel is more problematic for containing the virus than staying at home.
I'm low risk for developing complications from covid. If I hadn't got so many days snowboarding the last few years I would almost certainly be planning a trip this season. I have sympathy for those that want to go but imo it is a selfish decision (albeit one I would also make).
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| thefatcontroller wrote: |
| ecureuil wrote: |
| robs1 wrote: |
| ...I doubt any of the ski resorts would survive with non native skiers, the brits make up a large percentage of skiers in many resorts |
I woul say 'some' resorts, rather than 'many'. In most countries there are plenty of smaller resorts with very few brits at all.
From memory I think the UK provides only around 10% of the alpine skiing market, and other non-alpine countries perhaps a further 10%. With the exception of Austria (which would need support from Germany), alpine countries can probably manage comfortably for a few years with only native skiers. |
Ahem,
Skiing in France is FUBAR without foreign visitors.... |
Rubbish. If you look at the original report here https://vanat.ch/international-report-on-snow-mountain-tourism (page 27) it says that 70% of skiers in France are French! iloveski seem to have read it wrongly. And there will be some French nationals who ski in Switzerland, Italy etc
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| Quote: |
70% of skiers in France are French
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Seems like a more realistic number.
If Nepal can afford to cancel the Everest season ($10,000 per climbing permit!) and is still closed to tourists for the trekking season (tourism is around 8% of GDP), I think France can survive without Brits going there to ski!
I suspect in these covid times we will see increases in domestic tourism anyway. Clearly seems to be the anecdotal evidence coming out of Canada. Many in tourism were worried because international borders are closed, but most were full (of course "full" right now is reduced capacity due to covid, but best outcome possible) with domestic tourists that would usually go abroad.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Unless they completely shut the borders down, we are going to Alps for Xmas and NY, as we usually do.
If they close the lifts, we will have to learn touring or snowshoeing.
Quarantine back in UK is not a big deal, work/school from home and have everything delivered.
Quarantine in France is a bummer, but I am willing to accept the risk.
Selfish? Probably. Those who are at real risk from the virus should stay at home and shield. I am not going to put my life on hold for years for 0.01% chance of getting a remotely serious case of covid.
Last edited by snowHeads are a friendly bunch. on Fri 4-09-20 21:20; edited 2 times in total
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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@Oleski, +1
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Looks like North American resorts are going down the route of capping numbers each day. Already a reservation system in place for epic passes. Will be interesting to see if Europe also goes for this approach. Seems like a sensible precaution to avoid risk, and queues if gondolas and lefts are running at lowered capacity.
@oleski like I say I have sympathy and would probably do the same thing in your position. I'm fortunate in that I've got so many days in the last few years it's actually going to be nice to not snowboard and focus on some new things for a season.
It seems like with the current measures we are destined to continue in this life of semi lockdown where we have some limited freedoms and the virus will continue to spread (although at a controlled pace). At the time I was against lockdown and favoured letting those of us at low risk and wanting to get on with things to make our own choices about what risks to take. Now I wish we'd have a really strict lockdown, closed borders, and eliminated the virus here (new Zealand approach). Would have hurt in the short time, but can't help think things would be better right now.
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You know it makes sense.
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| boarder2020 wrote: |
Looks like North American resorts are going down the route of capping numbers each day. Already a reservation system in place for epic passes. Will be interesting to see if Europe also goes for this approach. Seems like a sensible precaution to avoid risk, and queues if gondolas and lefts are running at lowered capacity.
@oleski like I say I have sympathy and would probably do the same thing in your position. I'm fortunate in that I've got so many days in the last few years it's actually going to be nice to not snowboard and focus on some new things for a season.
It seems like with the current measures we are destined to continue in this life of semi lockdown where we have some limited freedoms and the virus will continue to spread (although at a controlled pace). At the time I was against lockdown and favoured letting those of us at low risk and wanting to get on with things to make our own choices about what risks to take. Now I wish we'd have a really strict lockdown, closed borders, and eliminated the virus here (new Zealand approach). Would have hurt in the short time, but can't help think things would be better right now. |
Two points, we will never eliminate the virus and NZ has it back again.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| Oleski wrote: |
| Selfish? Probably. Those who are at real risk from the virus should stay at home and shield. I am not going to put my life on hold for years for 0.01% chance of getting a remotely serious case of covid. |
Each to their own but lots of people currently happy to chance the 0.01% of getting serious case but their spread will probably cause the borders to be closed again in winter.
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Poster: A snowHead
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Not booking yet but winter would be similar low risk to summer. Travel in own car via tunnel to own apartment, ski if we can, most catering in apartment, travel home in own car via tunnel. Similar risk as at home.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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As long as resorts are open I, like the convicts, could not give a Castlemaine for quarantining thereafter.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| Quote: |
Two points, we will never eliminate the virus and NZ has it back again
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NZ eliminated the virus. It returned once they started letting flights in. Hence why some people in NZ are very unhappy and want the airport closed. I can't blame them, right now I'd take normal life being confined to NZ than the situation with have in Europe.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| boarder2020 wrote: |
| Quote: |
Two points, we will never eliminate the virus and NZ has it back again
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NZ eliminated the virus. It returned once they started letting flights in. Hence why some people in NZ are very unhappy and want the airport closed. I can't blame them, right now I'd take normal life being confined to NZ than the situation with have in Europe. |
I couldn’t help wondering at the time they made that claim - how they could make it?
Given we are being told that a large number of people have with no or very mild symptoms, the only way you can make that claim as far as I can see is to test the entire country at the same time. As far as I am aware no countries have the ability to do this.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| boarder2020 wrote: |
| Quote: |
Two points, we will never eliminate the virus and NZ has it back again
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NZ eliminated the virus. It returned once they started letting flights in. Hence why some people in NZ are very unhappy and want the airport closed. I can't blame them, right now I'd take normal life being confined to NZ than the situation with have in Europe. |
Bet all those NZ businesses that rely on visitors arent happy, what about business travellers both in and out?
Let me say it a different way the world will not eliminate the virus, it will mutate quicker than the vaccine can be updated, just look at flu or better other corona viruses like the common cold.
Hundreds of thousands of us have had to carry on working during lockdown to keep the country going, if we are happy to take the risk of working most will be more than happy to take that very small risk to go on holiday .
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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| robs1 wrote: |
| boarder2020 wrote: |
| Quote: |
Two points, we will never eliminate the virus and NZ has it back again
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NZ eliminated the virus. It returned once they started letting flights in. Hence why some people in NZ are very unhappy and want the airport closed. I can't blame them, right now I'd take normal life being confined to NZ than the situation with have in Europe. |
Bet all those NZ businesses that rely on visitors arent happy, what about business travellers both in and out?
Let me say it a different way the world will not eliminate the virus, it will mutate quicker than the vaccine can be updated, just look at flu or better other corona viruses like the common cold.
Hundreds of thousands of us have had to carry on working during lockdown to keep the country going, if we are happy to take the risk of working most will be more than happy to take that very small risk to go on holiday . |
Exactly, 11% of New Zealands GDP is tourism. I know people there, they are very, very worried. New Zealand has put themselves on the pedestal of being 'COVID free' (actually impossible) but to remain so they must continue to refuse all tourism until a vaccine is fully rolled out at least another 6-12 months? How will New Zealand survive economically?
With caution but removing the now over exaggerated fear we need to move on.
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I fully accept this virus is deadly and highly contagious. However, it is also overwhelmingly survivable by the vast majority of people. Transmission is going up (which will never be stopped unless we completely shut down) but deaths and admissions are not.
We're doing the right think and protecting vulnerable groups the rest of us need to get on. The policy of disrupting young peoples lives needs to stop and forcing industry into liquidation needs to stop.
There are people in my office very close to me confirmed to have had the virus mid March before lockdown. I may have even had it on that basis. The actual death rate is so insignificant based on the total infections we will never know the true figure and as I say we are now protecting those groups better.
I think more and more are of the belief we need to move on. Pressure will be mounting for that to happen
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@James77, as an older person (76) I completely agree with you that we need to move on. Fortunately I do not have any serious health issues but I do not expect the whole country to suffer for the sake of us oldies. Very very few previously healthy people under the age of 45 have suffered from the serious form of the illness so I believe we as a country have to grit our teeth and get back to work. It is not sustainable to continue to pay people not to work in anything more than the very short term. We have to learn to live with this virus
Last edited by After all it is free  on Mon 7-09-20 7:37; edited 1 time in total
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@Rabbie, speaking as a youthful 61 year old, I completely agree with you.
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NZ went 3 months without any positive tests. If that's not covid free I don't know what is! Scientists said the idea that the virus was being passed around by asymptomatic people for that long without a positive test is incredibly unlikely, the obvious answer is it was bought in by someone arriving in NZ. There were also the two that came to visit UK and took it back home to NZ.
If a few countries had went with very strict lockdowns managing to "eliminate" coronavirus they could have set up air bridges with each other. Unfortunately NZ is in the awkward position of being on its own.
Personally, it would suit me just fine saying ok let's all go back to normal. I'm healthy and willing to take the incredibly small risk of suffering serious effects of covid. How many deaths would it cause though?
I don't know what the solution is. Clearly the current protocol is not working as the virus continues to spread and people don't seem happy with things. Relax things more and let people make their own choices and you are almost certainly going to see an increase in deaths.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| boarder2020 wrote: |
| ....................Relax things more and let people make their own choices and you are almost certainly going to see an increase in deaths. |
but thats the point, read the information out there, we are not seeing an increase in deaths, far from it.....
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| boarder2020 wrote: |
| NZ went 3 months without any positive tests. If that's not covid free I don't know what is! |
All you can say with certainty is that there is 99.9% (or whatever the false negative rate is) probability that each individual* that has been tested didn't have the virus at that point in time
* not total probability. Let's do the maths, shall we?
Assuming false negative rate of 0.1% (and that's a damn good one, I don't know if any such tests actually exist)
a group of 10 individuals who all tested negative would have 0,999^10 ~= 99% probability of being actually all clear.
A group of 100? 0.999^100 ~= 90%
for 1000 people: 0.999^1000 ~= 36%
for 10000: 0.999^10000 ~=0.004%
Do you see where I am going with this? Your cute PM can make all the claims she wants, but hard maths isn't on her side.
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@Oleski, losing the will to live.
I've booked refundable accommodation for January but will hold off booking flights till much closer to the time. I wouldn't trust any airline not to cancel/reschedule with the way things are.
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You know it makes sense.
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@Oleski, ignoring the misogynistic comment, the sums that you have shown don't prove your point. New Zealand had no restrictions had no internal restrictions for those three months so it would be reasonable to expect an R rate of well above 1, probably in the region of of 3 to 4, if anyone had the disease. A doubling of infections every five days would be likely to occur with no internal restrictions as was seen in other countries. Therefore, if when restrictions were lifted after 55 days approximately 1000 people would have the virus. The exact hospitalization rate is disputed as no one is quite sure how many asymptomatic cases there are but if the hospitlaization rate was was just 5% that would mean that after two months over 20 people per day were being admitted to hospital with coronavirus and I think that the NZ authorities would have noticed this. After three months a small number of people were discovered in a single cluster with symptoms suggesting that the diesease had re entered the country. Therefore, I think that is fair to assume that for the best part of three months NZ was coronavirus free. Sadly, the hard logic isn't on your side.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| rambotion wrote: |
| New Zealand had no restrictions had no internal restrictions for those three months |
No restrictions for 3 month? Unfortunately hard facts are not on your side. They downgraded to Level 1 lockdown on 9 June.
By 11th of August they already had a community transmission from people who "were all from the same family, who had no link to overseas travel or quarantine measures in the country"
And that's just detected one. How many people went asymptomatic and/or untested?
On 12th August they went back to level 3
That's barely 2 month and calling Level 1 "no restrictions" is nonsense. All vulnerable groups were still under advice to stay home.
Sure they've had it easier. But are you seriously comparing a country with tiny population and barely any international traffic with busy hives that are US and EU?
This virus isn't going anywhere. Get fit and learn to live with it. Lockdowns are not an answer and I hope this is becoming obvious to more and more people in power.
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Poster: A snowHead
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[quote="Oleski"]
| rambotion wrote: |
| This virus isn't going anywhere. Get fit and learn to live with it. Lockdowns are not an answer and I hope this is becoming obvious to more and more people in power. |
This bit I agree with. Its not just ski season or holiday season. Lockdown hurts so many people in so many different ways, well beyond what the virus does alone.
Lockdown earlier this year across the world was a credible response to ease the peak impact on hospitals as the first wave badly stretched resources. Whether the 2nd or 3rd or 4th waves are as sever and require the similar response is debatable. A good example is Melbourne - lock down; release from lockdown; back into lockdown; lockdown extended; lockdown extended again - you have businesses that haven't opened or operated properly since March - the ski resorts have been closed - how many people have been infected? 19,500 with 675 dead. Melbourne/Victoria have a population of around 6m people. Its crushing a nut with a sledgehammer.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Using a sledgehammer to nick a nut whilst splitting the table in two.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Greek Islands added to the list today. I had hoped this ridiculous flip flop strategy strategy would be canned for a more sensible approach. I know it's 4 plus months away but things are not boding well. I'm usually upbeat but definitely feel worn out by all this.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@FrediKanoute, first lockdown was "justifiable" in the sense that the virus was new thing and politicians had to be seen "doing something" amid senseless mass media panic.
Now the novelty has worn off and no one wants to wreck economy any further. Second lockdown will cost them votes. A lot of votes. Especially younger people who perceive this to be yet another "let's screw the young over to help the boomers"
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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I plan to book very late.
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| boarder2020 wrote: |
| Quote: |
Two points, we will never eliminate the virus and NZ has it back again
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NZ eliminated the virus. It returned once they started letting flights in. Hence why some people in NZ are very unhappy and want the airport closed. I can't blame them, right now I'd take normal life being confined to NZ than the situation with have in Europe. |
Life is pretty normal in Sweden  Probably more normal than locking down Auckland, a city of 1.7 million over 4 cases.
And the UK last minute notification / flip-flop / inconsistency within the Union is also getting more ridiculous by the week.
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I've booked flights already for New Years, planning to book more for early Dec, Feb and probably early easter. Flights are cheap as chips (eg £40 rtn to Turin) with full flexibility. Accom supply will outstrip demand. The only unknown will be changing isolation on return policy. I suspect there will be a more intelligent approach and blunt one-size fits all will fade.
The elephant in the room is the risk of reciprocal isolation on arrival - Brexit and the need to attract UK visitors to euro land - may ironically work in our favour.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| robs1 wrote: |
Bet all those NZ businesses that rely on visitors arent happy, what about business travellers both in and out?
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That is rather point, there is almost no travel in or out. The result for the snowsports areas has thus been pretty positive, the loss of international skiers has been made up for by NZ citizens being unable to travel and in some cases reduced working or working from home, all helping boost the NZ ski areas numbers this season.
We've seen this in parts of Scotland, the big drop in international inbound tourism has been countered (in some cases significantly more so than can be coped with in parts of the Highlands) by UK citizens who also aren't going on overseas holidays. But the UK has not tried to go for zero covid over the summer, that leaves Scotland already seeing exponential increases in the first week of autumn before the weather really turns, not good at all.
There are discussions going on within the Scottish ski industry regarding capping numbers and potentially as a consequence moving to online advance ticketing only. The numbers were rising steadily at Glenshee and Glencoe in the days leading up to lockdown, it was clear there were a lot of people new to Scottish Skiing and a good number had just had holidays cancelled or curtailed in the Alps - add in the ongoing cluster-sounds-like-duck at Cairngorm, this points to the potential for demand to be overwhelming when the capacity will almost certainly have to be reduced. Off site ticketing so day trippers don't travel without having a ticket seems like a necessity to avoid carnage in the base areas and a large number of disappointed people getting turned away. Balancing the desire of people who can only go at holiday times to secure tickets well in advance and the practical case for only selling tickets at short range due to weather uncertainty will be an interesting conundrum to say the least!
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@haggishunter,
There are many negative as you touch upon. Scottish skiing really is not set up for numbers of people and if the weather closes it's all closed down which is a common occurrence. Additionally, as has been said before, don't go to Scotland and expect a ski holiday, go to Scotland for a holiday and if you get to ski it's a bonus. As much as Scotland is a sensational part of the British Isles and has incredible scenery and culture it's the skiing I'm interested in (certainly during the winter months). So it's not an alternative. It's also a days drive from the south and I can get to the alps in a day from the south.
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FAQ
