 Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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BOM have now declared a La Niña event.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/outlook/
However, noting:
“The majority of models predict an easing of the La Niña in early 2023, suggesting a relatively short-lived event; ENSO events typically peak during the southern hemisphere summer and decay during the autumn.”
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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So what if any affect will this have on Europe? Anyone have any historical view? Past two years have been La Nina and snow has looked pretty poor in Chamonix, where I am heading in Early Jan.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@skiberg, as mentioned on previous page direct correlation is hard to make for Europe. It’s part of the broad pattern, but it’s not really possible to make much more than very general statements.
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Good, you are confirming what I have heard many times, I guess it just makes me feel better when I hear it again after I have paid for the trip. Taking a whole bunch to Cham this year and hoping it works out. Thanks.
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@skiberg, The Severe Weather articles linked above go into this in some detail though the result is general analysis not a snow forecast for Chamonix! Even in a snow poor winter there will be some periods with good conditions. From what I have read it seems another snow poor winter is a higher possibility than a snow rich one, though with the number of variables any attempt at a "forecast" is likely to be wrong in some key aspects.
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We flew over the alps yesterday and they were white over  . It know it will melt yet but it looked nice.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Based on some firmer data, the North Atlantic is somewhat warmer than "normal", the Severe Weather folks are suggesting western Europe is more likely to have a warmer & dryer than "normal" winter https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/ocean-anomaly-atlantic-gulf-stream-forecast-winter-united-states-europe-fa/ . This seems a bit less speculative than the usual long term "forecasts". Given we know that our climate is very much influenced by the Gulf Stream (the usual comparisons of Scotland to Canada) it seems very reasonable to suggest that a warmer north east Atlantic results in a warmer western Europe (supported by long term climate data). Not good for either skiing or more generally when there has been such a prolonged period of below average precipitation. Seems like the cold, wet & miserable weather over the past couple of days is going to be the exception rather the rule over the coming months.
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Well that’s the season pretty much written off right there I’d say… And only mid September. But there you go.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@nozawaonsen,  Forecasts have been known to be not quite correct.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Or absolutely rubbish further out than 1 week?
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I admit I will expect positive forecasts of any sort to be correct, and pessimistic ones wrong
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You know it makes sense.
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+1. I can only add that I'll go skiing anyway, be it on a narrow white strip in a green/yellow field. It all beats working and then a burger in front of the TV
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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Yep end of the month round 27/28 September looks like there could be a reasonable amount of snowfall above 1500-1700m in northern Alps.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Do we need to wax up the touring skis for the weekend???
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Best snowfall looks like Tuesday at moment with 20-30cms at height and snowline dropping to 1500-1700m before rising above 2000m. Snow showers about here and there in the northern Alps much of the week above 2000m.
Below average temperatures for time of year over coming week.
http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4
Above average precipitation for time of year over coming week.
http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4
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| BobinCH wrote: |
| Do we need to wax up the touring skis for the weekend??? |
Looking forward to the trip report already 
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Apparently even the Spanish Sierra Nevada has had a small fall of snow.
Hope it melts quickly as they havent finished their new ski lifts and I suspect handling steelwork at -1C is not very pleasant....
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Florence Rabier (DG ECMWF) warning that high pressure likely to dominate Western Europe in November, December increasingly likelihood of colder than usual and drier than usual weather.
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@nozawaonsen, don’t like the sound of Florence!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Mid month FI has been looking interesting on GFS last few runs. Too soon to tell if it’s noise or signal at this point mind you.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Severe Weather folks latest long term outlook suggests less snow than "normal" (not no snow) based on the ECMWF analysis (as above) but the UK Met office seems to think the southern side might do better https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-2022-2023-seasonal-snowfall-predictions-update-united-states-canada-europe-fa/ . As ever this sort of analysis cant answer the "will there be snow at Christmas in..." question (there might be!) but there is a fair amount of agreement that we are not particularly likely to get a very snowy winter. That might be good from an energy supply perspective but less so for sliding down mountains.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Whilst Met Office contingency planners suggesting an increased likelihood of milder and drier temperatures for the U.K. up to year end the overall probability of average conditions for the period remains highest by some way. Within this broad assessment there is of course variability regionally and over the time period. It also notes that at the same time as La Niña tends to favour early winter high pressure the same period may also see increased cyclonic activity with potential that hurricane season may run later than usual (so on the one hand drivers for high pressure on the other drivers for low pressure, overall leading to reduced confidence in the outlook).
Of course for the Alps any weather would be driven by where exactly any high pressure did set up. So we’ll see. As to good for/bad for skiing. I’d suggest:
- it’s a bit early to say.
- it’ll probably depend on when and where you are skiing.
- massive winter storms aren’t necessarily great for skiing.
- in any case, good wine, company and food is happily not effected by the weather.
- it’s a bit early to tell.
The summary of the contingency planners can be found here:
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook-ond-secure.pdf
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This morning’s GFS 00z continues the trend of the last few runs to hint that there may be some cooler and snowier weather in the wings mid month. Whether that develops into a clearer signal, time will tell.
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You know it makes sense.
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Sticky, please
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Looks promising…
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Poster: A snowHead
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12z GFS also going for cold mid month, with temperatures 8C below average for the time of the year in the Alps…
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Looks like a fusted blush on recent runs. Next.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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End of month in Zermatt looking decent. A long way off but hope is key
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Indian Summer coming back before a possible hint of something at the end of the month?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| BobinCH wrote: |
Indian Summer coming back before a possible hint of something at the end of the month?
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how do we read these squiggles?
Top line temperatures & bottom perception? Not sure what the P numbers mean, but can work out the white is the mean average/median
Does one P number have a more likely outcome than another?
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TLDR
My eyes are not good to read lots of text 
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@Gored, posts #2 and #3 in the thread that @kitenski linked give you a decent starting point. Then it's a case of reading and thinking - there are a lot of nuances and complexities that can't easily be covered in a couple of sentences.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| Quote: |
| Looks like the first UK snow could be as early as Friday over the huger Cairngorm summits |
That's a start - but we want it over the lower Pennines summits Peter S 
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FAQ
