......on 29 Dec we had a 10hr corridor wait admitting my (now 102 year old) Dad to WorcesterRI with a severe chest infection.
Any patients with flu symptoms (not Dad) were being isolated in a separate room, with both them & their relatives being issued with full face plastic visor masks - all the medics had full PPE
..... And this was just for flu!!!
Now that's interesting. I'm getting suspicious of the apparent downgrading of PPE - and if Public Health England have a justified reason for doing this they should be explaining it better
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
under a new name wrote:
@alasdair.graham, to an extent, in the absence of a treatment*, everyone is effectively going into hospital today for "best supportive" care. So the Excel plan is in some ways no worse, other than a worse experience. *, OK anti-biotics where appropriate, but nothing vs. the virus.
Hospitals have the correct equipment and facilities to look after people properly, at best this field hospital will have tanks of oxygen by every bed, it will be an absolute breeding ground for spreading the virus to the staff there as well.
I do realise we have no choice tho
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
cameronphillips2000 wrote:
snowhound wrote:
@cameronphillips2000,
The death rate per infection is nowhere near 5%, that is even higher than the death rate per positive test which are only being performed on Ill people in hospital. With many more people likely infected but asymptotic, the infection rate is somewhere near likely 0.5% and even lower than that if you are young or healthy.
Nobody knows.
In Italy it's very high. In Germany very low
I would suggest the Gernan figure is more accurate as they have an extensive testing system.
The WHO currently estimates the fatality rate at 0 035%
I am less interested in the death rate v positive tests, as this is not a consistent measure.............but I still cant get my head round the low overall deaths in Germany v immediate neighbours??????
Current figures (RHS), deaths per Million pop - I have just pasted the first page. UK number is 6, Germany currently on 2, same as USA/China.
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Interesting paper from Oxford, suggesting possibly a much wider spread of infection than considered elsewhere, haven't read in detail, just downloaded and printed.
Key point, serological testing required to establish actual exposure rates.
@under a new name, yup, I read it yesterday, but... it reads to me like an exercise in fitting a model to a crucial hypothesis: "our overall approach rests on the ASSUMPTION that only a very small proportion of the population is at risk of hospitalisable illness". i.e. based on that assumption, they can build a model that explains the current epidemiology by implying mass infection.
Edited (since you also edited yours ) to say I totally agree, as does absolutely everybody involved in this, that antibody and RNA testing are crucial. This makes the lack of testing all the more appalling.
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@snowdave, One has to wonder doesn't one, as to why it isn't happening? At least the Ig testing, takes a pinprick and 10 minutes. RNA testing admittedly resource intensive.
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Prince Charles got a test. Maybe front line NHS workers can get one.
I see Switzerland now has th2 highest number of cases per capita. I wonder how much this is linked with skiing?
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
GreenDay wrote:
cameronphillips2000 wrote:
snowhound wrote:
@cameronphillips2000,
The death rate per infection is nowhere near 5%, that is even higher than the death rate per positive test which are only being performed on Ill people in hospital. With many more people likely infected but asymptotic, the infection rate is somewhere near likely 0.5% and even lower than that if you are young or healthy.
Nobody knows.
In Italy it's very high. In Germany very low
I would suggest the Gernan figure is more accurate as they have an extensive testing system.
The WHO currently estimates the fatality rate at 0 035%
I am less interested in the death rate v positive tests, as this is not a consistent measure.............but I still cant get my head round the low overall deaths in Germany v immediate neighbours??????
Current figures (RHS), deaths per Million pop - I have just pasted the first page. UK number is 6, Germany currently on 2, same as USA/China.
I’m still trying to decide whether to normalise things per population is the right measure or not as this has generally been a very regional thing. A massive non-affected population outside Wuhan region will distort population based figures, for example. I think per population measures only make sense when you know or can assume the virus has spread through that population?
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
cameronphillips2000 wrote:
under a new name wrote:
@alasdair.graham, to an extent, in the absence of a treatment*, everyone is effectively going into hospital today for "best supportive" care. So the Excel plan is in some ways no worse, other than a worse experience. *, OK anti-biotics where appropriate, but nothing vs. the virus.
I don't know if C4 do podcasts but Channel 4 news had a professor of acute medicine from a London hospital for ten minutes.
It was the most enlightening interview I-'ve seen since the outbreak.
I believe I saw that. I think he said something like - One reckless person with CV, can set of an exponential rate chain of infection, that would overwhelm the ICU of a big hospital - so not paying attention to Isolation advice is criminal.
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
cameronphillips2000 wrote:
altis wrote:
Some medical bod on the radio last night suggested that Italy has a high proportion of elderly, a high proportion of smokers (twice that of UK) and one other factor which escapes me at the moment.
It does have the oldest population profile in Europe. But Gernany is 2nd.
Japan has the oldest population in the world.
But they don’t have a full fledge outbreak.
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
under a new name wrote:
Interesting paper from Oxford, suggesting possibly a much wider spread of infection than considered elsewhere, haven't read in detail, just downloaded and printed.
Key point, serological testing required to establish actual exposure rates.
Mrs has just told me we now have five people we know who have it, up one from ten mins ago.
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
abc wrote:
cameronphillips2000 wrote:
altis wrote:
Some medical bod on the radio last night suggested that Italy has a high proportion of elderly, a high proportion of smokers (twice that of UK) and one other factor which escapes me at the moment.
It does have the oldest population profile in Europe. But Gernany is 2nd.
Japan has the oldest population in the world.
But they don’t have a full fledge outbreak.
Or not that we know about maybe? I have friends who have been working in Japanese resorts this winter who have said that people have been turned away from being tested when they have symptoms and they've been trying to play it down over there to try and protect the image, so who knows. Be interesting to see what happens now the Olympics is delayed...
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
It’s very difficult to compare data from different countries. Everyone is measuring infection and death rates very differently, testing programmes are different. Italy count every death with Coronavirus as having been caused by Coronavirus. Some countries are testing the whole population with or without symptoms, others are only measuring people in hospital with symptoms etc....
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
abc wrote:
cameronphillips2000 wrote:
altis wrote:
Some medical bod on the radio last night suggested that Italy has a high proportion of elderly, a high proportion of smokers (twice that of UK) and one other factor which escapes me at the moment.
It does have the oldest population profile in Europe. But Gernany is 2nd.
Japan has the oldest population in the world.
But they don’t have a full fledge outbreak.
The mortality rate is linked to age. But not tbe rate it spreads.
Asia we t for swift and early testing and locked it down.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
snowhound wrote:
It’s very difficult to compare data from different countries. Everyone is measuring infection and death rates very differently, testing programmes are different. Italy count every death with Coronavirus as having been caused by Coronavirus. Some countries are testing the whole population with or without symptoms, others are only measuring people in hospital with symptoms etc....
Personally, I think this is an important point and one that needs to be kept front and centre. It's also a point coming from our Govt advisers.
Asia we t for swift and early testing and locked it down.
China didn't. Japan didn't. South Korea I think is a notable exception, and seemed particularly geared up to act as a result decisions taken following the SARS outbreak. Even so, they still had a widespread infection and a large number of deaths. I suspect that there are a number of Asian countries who don't have the level of national resources of South Korea who will not be able to follow the same actions take by the Koreans.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Old Fartbag wrote:
snowhound wrote:
It’s very difficult to compare data from different countries. Everyone is measuring infection and death rates very differently, testing programmes are different. Italy count every death with Coronavirus as having been caused by Coronavirus. Some countries are testing the whole population with or without symptoms, others are only measuring people in hospital with symptoms etc....
Personally, I think this is an important point and one that needs to be kept front and centre. It's also a point coming from our Govt advisers.
Yes, totally agree. It must be very frustrating for those trying to make public health decisions based on this inconsistent data.
All health services should at least produce equipolent data imho, so that with data manipulation of different data sets that could be knocked into comparative data sets to compare countries & regions e.g. number of tests/1000 of population/ criteria for having undergone that test
Measured v control groups ( say random 1000 tests) to be able to plot your infection rates versus other countries experience, general population, risk groups, etc, etc, etc. These are basic requirements now & going forward imho.
I think that the point is indeed a call for widespread testing, using a routine model framework and calibrated other than the fraction susceptible to serious disease using inputs that seem generally agreed on as reasonable (e.g. R).
I think the underlying point is that they are seeing a good model-to-observation fit if the susceptibility variable is around 1% and so it's not unreasonable to suggest that this could be the actual situation but without robust sampling, there's a great big blind spot in the planning dashboard.
I think...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@cameronphillips2000, it's been a frustration for us to see celebs and politicians getting tests even tho' they don't meet the criteria, whereas NHS staff can't get them and are taken out of work (or at least have their effectiveness impacted by remote working).
After all it is free
After all it is free
@under a new name, agreed - it appears they're saying that they can fit a model to the data (as I suspect could any decent analyst) but there isn't enough data to tell them which model fits. I think their point is that the same flaw exists with the Imperial modelling.
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@snowdave, Yep, that too I think. Oh and yes re. testing of persons of much fame but little useful substance.
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In the mid nineteen forties, scientists became more powerful than politicians. We are now in the same situation again. Despite Cummings thinking he knew the maths the best it seems the UK government is now listening to the scientists more than the advisors.
There is one anomaly though. A certain Mr Trump.
If there is one time in world history that you wouldn't want a Maverick in charge, it is now.
I feel for them more than ever today. New York will see more deaths than 9/11 if Trump continues thecway he has managed things so far.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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In the mid nineteen forties, scientists became more powerful than politicians. We are now in the same situation again. Despite Cummings thinking he knew the maths the best it seems the UK government is now listening to the scientists more than the advisors.
There is one anomaly though. A certain Mr Trump.
If there is one time in world history that you wouldn't want a Maverick in charge, it is now.
I feel for them more than ever today. New York will see more deaths than 9/11 if Trump continues thecway he has managed things so far.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
cameronphillips2000 wrote:
In the mid nineteen forties, scientists became more powerful than politicians. We are now in the same situation again. Despite Cummings thinking he knew the maths the best it seems the UK government is now listening to the scientists more than the advisors.
There is one anomaly though. A certain Mr Trump.
If there is one time in world history that you wouldn't want a Maverick in charge, it is now.
I feel for them more than ever today. New York will see more deaths than 9/11 if Trump continues thecway he has managed things so far.
EU corona deaths = 13,500
US corona deaths = 800
It is clear which region is the anomaly.
EU disaster, as always.
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@Whitegold, That's like comparing Italy deaths to other EU countries before they had any, and saying they were responsible for a disaster.
As usual, you compare unrelatable stats and come up with a boll**ks conclusion.
USA is behind Europe in this situation. Let's see what the total is at the end. 1/3 of their population do not have health care, and Trump is still in denial about the scale of the situation.
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
I've just remembered the third thing he said about Italy: antibiotics are commonly not as effective as they are here. Although an antibiotic is no use directly against a virus they are effective against pneumonia which commonly gets in aftetwards. Presumably, they have used more in the past and the bugs there have built up a resistance.
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Whitegold wrote:
EU corona deaths = 13,500
US corona deaths = 800
It is clear which region is the anomaly.
EU disaster, as always.
Come back in 2 weeks and update the number
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Sitter wrote:
abc wrote:
cameronphillips2000 wrote:
altis wrote:
Some medical bod on the radio last night suggested that Italy has a high proportion of elderly, a high proportion of smokers (twice that of UK) and one other factor which escapes me at the moment.
It does have the oldest population profile in Europe. But Gernany is 2nd.
Japan has the oldest population in the world.
But they don’t have a full fledge outbreak.
Or not that we know about maybe? I have friends who have been working in Japanese resorts this winter who have said that people have been turned away from being tested when they have symptoms and they've been trying to play it down over there to try and protect the image, so who knows. Be interesting to see what happens now the Olympics is delayed...
They maybe under-counting to uphold an "image". But if there's a huge outbreak, no way it would go unnoticed. I'm satisfied there isn't a "full fledge" outbreak. No country, even one as tightly controlled as China, can hide a large outbreak.
Particular interesting is the column "Total recovered".
China: total case, 80 thousand, total recovered, 73 thousand. Granted, China is not the most trustworthy country.
South Korea is probably a better example: total case 90k, recovered 37k.
Now look at Europe. Italy, Spain both have 10's of thousand cases, with recovered cases in thousands. They're still deep in the mist of it.
US.
It's got almost as many cases as Italy, but how many "recovered"? a few hundred! (in fact, the next column "active case", US already passed Italy! )
The worst is yet to come for my countryman, I'm afraid.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@abc, do they say what the definition of 'recovered' is? For example, S.Korea 90K confirmed cases and 37K recovered - what category do the other 53K fall in to? They haven't had that many fatalities, so does it mean "not yet recovered"? Does it mean "still alive but with some lasting impairment"?
I heard today, that people start to get the pneumonia stage generally after about 8 days of the cough, though this is variable.
So many countries are at such different stage if you click on each individual country on the above link then it gives day by day breakdowns for each country.
Italy seem have have had and extra 5200 new cases for the last 2 days having peaked at 0ver 6000 on Saturday. It's all about reducing the trend in new cases now. I sincerely hope it calls in coming days in Italy. New cases have thankfully fallen today in Spain. Both of thse countries are consdierably in to the lockdown.
The worrying trend is in the States with more new cases today than Italy or Spain have had ion one day. They are significantly Spain and Italy in the lockdown so, hopefully they will show decreases by this time next wekk, if not, before.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
altis wrote:
I've just remembered the third thing he said about Italy: antibiotics are commonly not as effective as they are here. Although an antibiotic is no use directly against a virus they are effective against pneumonia which commonly gets in aftetwards. Presumably, they have used more in the past and the bugs there have built up a resistance.
The main problem appears to be an inflammatory pneumonitis rather than a bacterial pneumonia. Antibiotics are probably not going to make much difference in most cases.
After all it is free
After all it is free
@Whitegold 'EU disaster, as always.'
London: 143 deaths
New York: 210 deaths
The President's response? "You can't just come in and say, 'Let's close up the United States of America, the most successful country in the world by far."
Money before people, America's Manifest Destiny in action. Not for me. Give me Europe over a Trump America every time.
Last edited by After all it is free on Wed 25-03-20 21:36; edited 1 time in total
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FAQ
Poster: A snowHead
) to say I totally agree, as does absolutely everybody involved in this, that antibody and RNA testing are crucial. This makes the lack of testing all the more appalling.
)
