 Poster: A snowHead
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Someone quite close to me had a mask fitting yesterday and there were gaps at the sides so they're trying to get another one for today. She's due to go in to the isolation ward today...
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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I think China is in a much better place to deal with a pandemic
No freedom of speech
No democracy
State law
They can make drugs/ equipment without law or certification.
Bearicracy and law will slow down the response of western nations.
We're more likely to throw medics into an infected ward without PPE rather than with PPE knocked up yesterday at a factory down the road that hasn't met BS 480564 yet.....
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I think that's right, plus the basic facts of how this virus spreads. As the lockdown is lifted all it takes will be for isolated examples of infection to spread through a newly unlocked population who are desperate to re-start their lives and we are once again back in an uncontrolled spread of infection.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| rob@rar wrote: |
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I think that's right, plus the basic facts of how this virus spreads. As the lockdown is lifted all it takes will be for isolated examples of infection to spread through a newly unlocked population who are desperate to re-start their lives and we are once again back in an uncontrolled spread of infection. |
I agree, but speculate that the lockdown will be lifted only very slowly, and with associated testing (antibody as well as RNA). Singapore never removed its SARS-induced temperature scanning at the airport; we might see much mroe of this.
So, for example, maybe we will return to mass school exams for GCSEs etc., but only after each child is tested, and with enforced 2m separation and masks. Possibly mixing in those with immunity (if such a thing exists) with those without as a further transmission firewall.
We have demonstrated as a society that we can do much more remotely than we ever thought possible - education and healthcare being prime examples that I have personal experience of. It may be that from now on, all face-to-face GP appointments will require phone triage first, which is proving very effective at reducing contact levels.
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| snowdave wrote: |
I agree, but speculate that the lockdown will be lifted only very slowly, and with associated testing (antibody as well as RNA). Singapore never removed its SARS-induced temperature scanning at the airport; we might see much mroe of this.
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This is also my view. A staged comeback.....or a sine wave of infection, going in and out of lockdown in a controlled way, so as to allow herd immunity to happen, while not overwhelming the health service. This needs to carry on until we have a vaccine. The very vulnerable will need isolated as much as possible, until vaccine available.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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I don’t trust the Chinese figure.
But Hong Kong, and probably Korea are dealing with the “second wave” right now. We’ll see how it goes in another week or two.
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| Quote: |
The very vulnerable will need isolated as much as possible, until vaccine available.
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Or a drug becomes available.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@Old Fartbag, @rob@rar, @snowdave, the graph above is, I believe, taken from the recent Imperial College report on the pandemic. It is scary, but it is also flawed.
The flat red line near the bottom represents ICU bed capacity. This line shouldn’t be flat. One of the main reasons for “lock down” is to buy time. Time for more ventilators to be made, the army to convert more buildings into hospitals and health staff to be retrained.
This analysis factors this in ... https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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The graph above doesn't really work
Social isolating has proved to have 10% lower cases in countries far down the line. - see my third video
There could be a second wave, if we don't handle the second growth better than we handled the first one.
We should be able to do this with adequate testing and temperature checking
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| abc wrote: |
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The very vulnerable will need isolated as much as possible, until vaccine available.
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Or a drug becomes available. |
I have no idea whether a drug gives immunity, or buys time until we get a vaccine, by controlling symptoms....but helping buy time if it can be rolled out in time, would be a big gain.
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You know it makes sense.
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The herd immunity model is horrific - You have to infect 30% of the population to decrease the infection rate by a third. That's 20 million poeple getting it - 1 million deaths.
and you've slowed it down by a third.
If you isolated the vulnerable and run it through the rest of the population then it could work.
The best hope is for a very hot spring. the virus hasn't spread through India anything like as quickly as Europe. This may suggest it doesn't like the heat. Southern Hemishpere countries are also well down on cases. - but it could be because those countries are not as socially mobile
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| snowdave wrote: |
| ... we can do much more remotely than we ever thought possible - education and healthcare being prime examples ... |
Worth noting that more than 90% of schools are still open, offering a childcare service for the family of key workers and this echildren identified as being particularly vulnerable without regular attendance at school.
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Poster: A snowHead
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| gvj wrote: |
| The flat red line near the bottom represents ICU bed capacity. This line shouldn’t be flat. One of the main reasons for “lock down” is to buy time. Time for more ventilators to be made, the army to convert more buildings into hospitals and health staff to be retrained. |
Sure, that red line will rise as capacity is increased. How much extra capacity will be added do you think?
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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The daily death numbers in the UK are getting frightened now wouldn't you agree Rob?
The capacity in Scotland has already been doubled(to 300 beds) and the aim is to go to 700 approx within a relatively quick time frame.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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We are creating 4000 beds in two wards at the Excell centre in London, these patients will not be getting proper critical care, a huge number will effectively be getting put in there to die, despite the heroic efforts of the people in there looking after them undoubtedly.
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@rob@rar, Great question. Unfortunately trying to answer it takes us from the realms of extrapolation into speculation. The whole idea of the “lock down” is to try and flatten that peak of cases enough so that the increased capacity is not exceeded. On evidence so far France may be more successful at doing so than the UK....on doit crosser les doits .... 
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| alasdair.graham wrote: |
The daily death numbers in the UK are getting frightened now wouldn't you agree Rob?
The capacity in Scotland has already been doubled(to 300 beds) and the aim is to go to 700 approx within a relatively quick time frame. |
Exactly what I was expecting, very sadly. Take a look at the graph to see how the margin by which NHS critical care capacity will be exceeded. I think this will happen everywhere, modern, well-funded health systems like our own, and almost not-there health systems in the least well-developed countries. The capacity in our NHS could be tripled, quadrupled and it would still be pitifully inadequate. There is no good outcome from this, only terrible outcomes.
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@rob@rar,
Agreed.
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| gvj wrote: |
| @rob@rar, Great question. Unfortunately trying to answer it takes us from the realms of extrapolation into speculation. The whole idea of the “lock down” is to try and flatten that peak of cases enough so that the increased capacity is not exceeded. |
Couple of things which I think are noteworthy: we don't have a lockdown as many people are still going to work (my girlfriend has just returned home and said the traffic was as bad as always on her commute home, which seems to echo observations made on snowHeads and elsewhere in the media). And from what I can see none of the models presented for managing the crisis in the UK indicate that exceeding the NHS capacity can be avoided. I understand that delaying the peak and flattening the graph has been the government's aim from that start, but that's to reduce the extent to which the capacity is exceeded not avoid that situation altogether.
I think you're right to say that some of the assumptions which are being made about forward projections seem to move us from extrapolation to speculation, but do we have an alternative? Will the country survive a second crisis of the same magnitude as we are about to experience this coming winter, without the economy collapsing to the point that it barely functions? The health implications of that are truly frightening.
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Buying time is important in many ways. By next winter, a lot of the current practice will be analyzed. The "locked down", if there's one will be more targeted rather than broad.
More ventilator, more hospital bed, earlier testing, more masks... all those currently not available will be more available next winter.
If we survive this winter, we'll be much better off next winter. But surviving this winter is far from guaranteed.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@cameronphillips2000,
The death rate per infection is nowhere near 5%, that is even higher than the death rate per positive test which are only being performed on Ill people in hospital. With many more people likely infected but asymptotic, the infection rate is somewhere near likely 0.5% and even lower than that if you are young or healthy.
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| cameronphillips2000 wrote: |
The herd immunity model is horrific - You have to infect 30% of the population to decrease the infection rate by a third. That's 20 million poeple getting it - 1 million deaths.
and you've slowed it down by a third.
If you isolated the vulnerable and run it through the rest of the population then it could work.
The best hope is for a very hot spring. the virus hasn't spread through India anything like as quickly as Europe. This may suggest it doesn't like the heat. Southern Hemishpere countries are also well down on cases. - but it could be because those countries are not as socially mobile |
That is exactly why the government is trying to get the vunerabe to do, hide away until its passed, the fatality rate in tested people 60 to 70 is 1 percent overall that is around the normal annual rate per year for that age IE at that age you now have twice the risk of dying this year than you did last year, also the study in Italy showed that for every person showing symptoms there were ten positve test where no symptoms were present , therefore we have to assume that the numbers infected in this country are pretty high already, if infection confers immunity, which is normal in viruses, then there is hope that when this lockdown is lifted numbers wont rise so fast next time.
Heat at normal temps isnt that good at killing the virus, UV light is what slows it own in sunnier climes and ventilation, IE people spend more time out doors and surfaces are cleaner due to UV killing the virus and fresh air reduces virus loading which gives the immune system more of a chance.
This is why doctors and nurses have been dying in numbers in Italy the air is full of virus and overwhelms even fit people. The experince in Italy where people were shut in houses during bad weather with people who already are shedding virus into stale air supports this assumption, I have seen this first hand in animals give them more ventilation and infections drop without any other action.
In other words open your windows and let fresh air in, if there is an infected person in your house this simple action might save a life
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| snowdave wrote: |
| @michaelf, yup, the rubber strap that holds the mask sufficiently tightly to your face to optimise effectiveness... stops the mask hanging loosely as you lean forward over a coughing patient. |
do they facefit test the medical staff for the masks do you know?
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| robs1 wrote: |
The experince in Italy where people were shut in houses during bad weather with people who already are shedding virus into stale air supports this assumption, I have seen this first hand in animals give them more ventilation and infections drop without any other action.
In other words open your windows and let fresh air in, if there is an infected person in your house this simple action might save a life |
Or we could lift the stupid lockdowns and get on with it I suppose. Heard terrified carers left corona patients to die in their beds in Spain to avoid catching it themselves. Words fail me.
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| Quote: |
The experince in Italy where people were shut in houses during bad weather with people who already are shedding virus into stale air supports this assumption, I have seen this first hand in animals give them more ventilation and infections drop without any other action.
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Are there air filters that can would work to cut down on virus load?
And I seem to read virus don't hang around in the air when it's humid. So I wonder if humidifier would have benefit?
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You know it makes sense.
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I posted an ad for my holiday home on another thread for someone who may want to lick themselves away for a couple of months.
I expected the usual self righteous brigade to comment but was quite staggered at the level of ignorance and misunderstanding people have.
Isolating the vulnerable is by far the best thing to do. If that means sone people move to places where they don't have to see anybody for a period of time then it makes total sense.
The biggest risk is the lack of PPE for medical professionals.
We cant afford for them to get I'll, or the virus to hospital wards full of sick and elderly people.
The weekend had showed signs of a peak in new cases per day in many European countries though, sadly this trend seems to have reversed in the uk today.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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@abc, “So I wonder if humidifier would have benefit?”
We had one delivered only yesterday after following advice of one of the many lists of useful things to prepare ourselves with in case one of us (will probably become both in that case) succumbs and isolates in a separate room at home. I think the idea had been to ease the coughing but see your point.
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Poster: A snowHead
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| Mother hucker wrote: |
| snowdave wrote: |
| @michaelf, yup, the rubber strap that holds the mask sufficiently tightly to your face to optimise effectiveness... stops the mask hanging loosely as you lean forward over a coughing patient. |
do they facefit test the medical staff for the masks do you know? |
In the vast majority of cases, no. I think that those dealing with known COVID patients in hospital get proper PPE, the rest generally get a surgical mask and a disposable plastic apron. When I said "optimise effectiveness" I really meant "stopping it being totally ineffective"!
I use better masks for DIY than my wife is being issued.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| snowdave wrote: |
| Mother hucker wrote: |
| snowdave wrote: |
| @michaelf, yup, the rubber strap that holds the mask sufficiently tightly to your face to optimise effectiveness... stops the mask hanging loosely as you lean forward over a coughing patient. |
do they facefit test the medical staff for the masks do you know? |
In the vast majority of cases, no. I think that those dealing with known COVID patients in hospital get proper PPE, the rest generally get a surgical mask and a disposable plastic apron. When I said "optimise effectiveness" I really meant "stopping it being totally ineffective"!
I use better masks for DIY than my wife is being issued. |
Listening to radio 4, the level of PPE has been set by the experts at Public Heath England.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| Quote: |
The biggest risk is the lack of PPE for medical professionals
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interesting to see the use of PPE in normal times
......on 29 Dec we had a 10hr corridor wait admitting my (now 102 year old) Dad to WorcesterRI with a severe chest infection.
Any patients with flu symptoms (not Dad) were being isolated in a separate room, with both them & their relatives being issued with full face plastic visor masks - all the medics had full PPE
..... And this was just for flu!!!
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| snowhound wrote: |
@cameronphillips2000,
The death rate per infection is nowhere near 5%, that is even higher than the death rate per positive test which are only being performed on Ill people in hospital. With many more people likely infected but asymptotic, the infection rate is somewhere near likely 0.5% and even lower than that if you are young or healthy. |
Nobody knows.
In Italy it's very high. In Germany very low
I would suggest the Gernan figure is more accurate as they have an extensive testing system.
The WHO currently estimates the fatality rate at 0 035%
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@alasdair.graham, to an extent, in the absence of a treatment*, everyone is effectively going into hospital today for "best supportive" care. So the Excel plan is in some ways no worse, other than a worse experience. *, OK anti-biotics where appropriate, but nothing vs. the virus.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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| under a new name wrote: |
| @alasdair.graham, to an extent, in the absence of a treatment*, everyone is effectively going into hospital today for "best supportive" care. So the Excel plan is in some ways no worse, other than a worse experience. *, OK anti-biotics where appropriate, but nothing vs. the virus. |
I don't know if C4 do podcasts but Channel 4 news had a professor of acute medicine from a London hospital for ten minutes.
It was the most enlightening interview I-'ve seen since the outbreak.
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| abc wrote: |
| Quote: |
The experince in Italy where people were shut in houses during bad weather with people who already are shedding virus into stale air supports this assumption, I have seen this first hand in animals give them more ventilation and infections drop without any other action.
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Are there air filters that can would work to cut down on virus load?
And I seem to read virus don't hang around in the air when it's humid. So I wonder if humidifier would have benefit? |
Carbon filters we use in tractor cabs to catch any spray vapours from entering would do I guess but a fan in front of a window causing a change in air every few minutes is just as effective but open windows would help a lot , Im lucky I work outside and am allowed to continue to as a food producer
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Some medical bod on the radio last night suggested that Italy has a high proportion of elderly, a high proportion of smokers (twice that of UK) and one other factor which escapes me at the moment.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| altis wrote: |
| Some medical bod on the radio last night suggested that Italy has a high proportion of elderly, a high proportion of smokers (twice that of UK) and one other factor which escapes me at the moment. |
It does have the oldest population profile in Europe. But Gernany is 2nd.
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@altis,
Northern Italy also has some of the most polluted air in Europe so that could well be a factor in the death/severe symptoms rates as well.
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