Weather Outlook Thread

A snowHead

Metcheck is now showing a lower freezing level for Obertauern for the next 7 days - the previous forecast for rain is changing to snow snowHead

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/snow_forecast_7.asp?resortID=11

A snowHead

Yes without wishing to get carried away the 06Z GFS chart made signficant changes to temps from Sat into Sunday. Where the Ski forecasts on Netweather were showing torrential rain on Sunday they are now showing heavy snow. In fact the cooling trend should mean that this disturbance will mean snow for a large area of the Alps over the weekend.

Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?

The 3Vs predictions that I've been looking at would tend to bear that out with as much as 36cms in some areas on Sunday.

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wetter.at has been predicting snow for ski amade area for the weekend over the last few days, never mentioned the R word. Not sure what model this service is based on.

Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.

mcfcPaul, the problem isn't now and the next day or so, it's around the weekend and onwards! That's when it's getting warm...

I agree on your generalisation for accuracy only on specifics... it is quite easy to pick out general warming trends even for a week or two out. The pattern does shift, but you get a good general idea and I think it's fairly clear from the current synoptics that it will be warm for a while from this weekend onwards.

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You have to be careful with sudden shifting of weather forecasts. Most weather prediction models do several runs each day, with lots of minor variation of parameters that, over time, amplify the effect, making the prediction less reliable. As weather is so random (think of the classic butterfly's wings saying) at each hour, another variable is introduced which means that the further awy the prediction, the more variables and the more inaccuracy. When the forecast is only for a few days away, the various variables don't have as much cumulative effect, so when you look at a GFS-type chart (such as the pic below for the St. Anton-ish region of Austria) you see the various "runs" are all closely packed at the start and get more and more spread apart over time as the variables kick in. Where there is not a wide spread of the runs, you will find that the forecast is pretty accurate, a classic example of this is the current run:

Now the problem is that occasionally (as above - look at the disparity between the thick green line and the rest of the bunch!) you get what's called an "outlier" in that the run used to produce some of the day's weather charts are using a forecast member (wiggly line) that is way above or below, or both at different times of the run... therefore it's highly unlikely to be the most likely outcome in the forecast. Human forecasters take this into account... pure computer ones don't tend to, so you end up with hugely fluctuating forecasts.

Any way you cut it up, it is absolutely obvious that it is more than likely that the next 10 days or so will see a climb to warmer temperatures (look at how they're all bunching together even a week or so off), lots of precipitation and then hopefully a gradual cooldown again. When you lot dive into a pure gfs control run-based forecast (which I believe metcheck is?) then you'll be up and down every 6 hours or so as it seizes upon a different operational run.

As has been pointed out before... you can normally find a weather forecast to suit your needs if you keep looking, but if it's the only one saying that when all the rest say something else, how likely is it to come off?

(Edited to say that before some smarty-pants points it out, I know it's the blue thick line that the weather charts are produced from... I'm using the high-res green thick line as an example in this case to point out what an outlier looks like!)

brian

I wouldn't overdo the doom and gloom too much. Yes, it looks like western europe is in for a spell of atlantic dominated weather, so it's going to be alternating mild and cool as the systems track past. Good amounts of precipitation around though. I'm hoping GFS will take a swing towards a little cooler over the next few days. The ECM has won virtually every bout of model divergence over the last few weeks. If it wins this one too, then things don't look bad at all wink

btw, the outlook for Scotland over the next week or so is excellent, seriously hopeful of getting a good base laid down this winter. Very Happy

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brian, the forum seems so French Alp-oriented that I hardly dare ask, but have you got any views on what might happen in the Parsenn area as from this weekend? (Hope it's OK to ask.)

brian

Hurtle, no problem. There will be practically no tartiflette, next to no fondue and the people will speak with strange, teutonic accents. Shocked

Weather-wise it looks like snow on Sunday (maybe 20-30cm) above 1500m, snow line dropping later. Then most likely a bit changeable, a short lived colder clearer spell followed by a little milder with some more snow.

brian

Incidentally, the Swiss meteo outlook is here ...

http://www.meteosuisse.admin.ch/web/fr/meteo/previsions_en_detail.html

... or here if you prefer German ...

http://www.meteosuisse.admin.ch/web/de/wetter/Detailprognose.html

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Hi Guys - I am getting really worried looking at the forecast temps for the French Alps Sad

- going to Courchevel on Saturday and although it is nice to see that there is some precipitation forecast, will it fall as SNOW?

Chris

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Brian - Firstly, many thanks for your continued updates. I'm geeky enough to always keep an eye out for them! We're off to St Anton on Sunday.. looking at the chart above, I can see it's going to be a bit warmer but are we likely to see rain while we're out there?

brian

blondends, worry ye not, the vast majority of Courchevel's skiing is nice and high, so whatever happens there will be some great skiing to be had next week. Snow/rain lines are tricky beggars to predict but it currently looks as though you'll get a very heavy dump of snow on Sunday. I would think above 2000m is pretty safe, at 1800m my guess would be heavy wet snow, below that rain is increasingly more likely. Below 1500m I would imagine will almost certainly be pretty wet.

thatmanwoody, see reply to Hurtle above (Davos is pretty close to St A as the chough flies).

btw, it's really a bit far off for trying this kind of detail so .... a large disclaimer of a) I'm only a (rank) amateur and b) the actual model output will most likely change quite a bit applies !

You know it makes sense.

Brian - many thanks again.

Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:

Brian, yes, thanks very much !

A snowHead

What the weather going to be like in Saalbach from the 5th jan onwards? Ive checked sallbach.at, and they say snow on Sunday.
I know they havent had that much for a while, im gutted becuase it looks like it might be better to take a pair of ice skates rather than skis.

Anyone been there over NYE? what are the slopes like?

A snowHead

brian, yes, thanks! Keep the info coming, please! The FL is coming down a bit on snow-forecast. It looks like some fairly marginal variations either way is going to make the difference between a great dump of snow and a very depressing washout next week for a lot of resorts which are based around 1300/1800. But that's weather, isn't it? Butterflies' wings, indeed.

Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?

brian, Thank you, thank you! No problem with lack of tartiflette and fondue - I shall manage just fine with Kaseschnitte!

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Karl Moto, At the moment, the predicted freezing levels seem to be changing quite significantly with each run.

For Zillertal, I'm just hoping it stays cold enough for any precipitation next week to be snow down to 1300m, otherwise I may be spending more time over at Kaltenbach than in the Zillertal arena.

Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.

Is most of Chamonix skiing > or < 2000?

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Tim Sawyer, lots above 2000m, lots below!

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[quote="alex_heney"]Karl Moto, At the moment, the predicted freezing levels seem to be changing quite significantly with each run.

The GFS has tended to over cook 2m temps this winter, it favours the Atlantic and the ECM has been far more accurate.

blondends, similarly getting a bit concerned. Like you, we're due out on Saturday, but slightly lower down in La Tania which looks like it could be on the damp side. From what I can see the freezing line may go as high as 1800 Shocked

right about the time of the highest amount of precipitation.

Still, nought to be done about it and as Brian pointed out, there'll still be some outstanding skiing to be had Cool

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Marcus, and in Courchevel you have the luxury of going up to the snow in a gondola so you don't get rained upon en route to the fresh powder.

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Dont panick!- alot can and will change in the next few days. Look at the very bright side of it- theres loads of precipitaion forecast for the next week or so. Most of the resorts will HAVE ski-ing above the freezing line-theres gnna be an absolute powder fest all over europe- so waht if it rains lower down, just spend more time in the mountains Laughing

YYYEEEEEE HHHHAAAAAAAAAAAA........!!!!

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harrymac is my kind of snowHead

You know it makes sense.

ski-finder, are you out the alps soon?

Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:

harrymac, Avoriaz on 21st Jan... can't flippin wait!!! Been glued to the sunny skies on the Avoriaz webcam... any expectations on whether the upcoming precip will fall as snow/sleet/rain on the slopes above Avoriaz?

brian

A snowHead

brian, merci. Toute les jours sont "un veritable reve du skieur"

Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?

brian, Wear The Fox Hat, I guess you're not pining to have your work corrected....? wink

brian

Hurtle, for heaven's sake, it was a cheap gag. rolling eyes

However, since you're persecuting me wink

, what is wrong anyway (ignoring accents, circumflexes, etc. which admittedly I was too lazy to find) ?

Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.

As if by magic the 12Z progs temps lower still from the weekend, I would really not look too far ahead at present as the model is struggling to cope with a 'normal' winter!

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ski-finder, above 2000m loads of powder, below could be like the uk rain, snow, sleet the whole lot. Laughing

Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...

After all it is free

brian, oops, sorry, only a joke! Embarassed

Not many mistakes, it was really very good and did not justify pedantic beastliness!

I respectfully suggest "de neige" not "de la neige". I'm guessing you meant "encore de neige" rather then "plus de neige". "Aidera" rather than "aidez."
And WTFH should have put "tous les jours." And I think "reve de skieur" would perhaps be more idiomatic.

Hurtle, Stick to English !

"Aidera ...Aidera .... wtf is Aidera" ... last heard in 1872 wink

brian

Actually, I meant to write, "J'espere que ca vous aide", the z slipped on by reflex Embarassed

Other beastly points noted. wink

Agenterre, same tune as wtf is Alice I presume ? Toofy Grin

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Weather Outlook Thread

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