12z ECM and GFS both going for much colder weather at the end of October start of November. The GFS control run in particular was very cold.
Meanwhile worth keeping a little watch out for Typhoon Bualoi hitting Japan at the end of the week. Typhoon Neoguri is currently bringing a lot of rain to places, but Bualoi could be very wet indeed.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
This morning’s output has shifted away from yesterday’s colder outlook, or at least pushed it further east. So not ruling it out, but a lot less confidence.
I don't understand any of those weather charts. Looks to me as though someone failed a lie detector test or there was an earthquake.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
Kitzbühel have kept up their October "ski opening". It always looks pointless to me, the weather is much more suitable for walking boots or mountain bikes not skis!
Mittersill (Austria) (AFP) - A singular bright strip of snow stands out brightly against Austria's autumnal surroundings but the ski slope's early opening is drawing concern from environmentalists.
Ski season in Europe's Alps usually starts from mid-November but in fashionable Kitzbuehel in western Austria, a 700-metre-long (2,300 feet) track using recycled snow already opened last weekend.
For enthusiasts, especially young competitors in the region, they say skiing in October is "a chance not to be missed". But for Austria's Green Party wing in Salzburg, it's "just grotesque in the era of climate urgency".
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@Toadman, more pictures in the link above, including the "snow store" and the work to create the "piste". This snow doesnt come from snow cannons but is collected at the end of the previous season and kept under a layer of hay and a tarpaulin so that the lift company can say the resort is "open" from the middle of October. Personally I think it is rather pointless though it probably helps a few junior ski teams.
I do agree with your comments about the amount of water and thus energy that is now used to ensure there is enough "snow" so the resorts can open whatever the real weather. There are bigger issues in terms of energy use and carbon dioxide but it is pretty extravagant all things considered. From a personal perspective I avoid going skiing if what is on offer is white strips on an otherwise green mountainside, it really is not the experience I am looking for, much as I would avoid "snow domes" in Dubai etc.
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Ski resorts are now getting much more skilled at farming presummer and prewinter snow.
Few European resorts opened early on farmed snow in the 20th century.
Today, the list is growing.
Ruka, Kitz, Livigno, etc.
Still niche, but definitely a trend.
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@Toadman, using water in Liverpool is no worry. Looks my golf will be called off for the 3rd week in a row due to waterlogged fairways.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Here’s an encouraging forecast for an early November opening!
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Just to whet the appetite here are some snow projections. As ever these are still moving about a lot so I’d treat them with caution.
After all it is free
After all it is free
Temperatures are going to fall to well below seasonal average as October ends. Freezing levels could drop to 1200m at times in the eastern Alps (1500m+ further west). There will be some snowfall, though doesn’t current look like a huge amount before temperatures rising back up to average for early November. A further fall in temperatures currently looks possible around 08/09 November.
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GFS 12z op went for some big storms out in FI, ECM was less stormy, but below average temperatures. Both interesting in their own way. Maybe tomorrow might see if one option or another starts to build support.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
GFS still sizing up some stormy weather in FI...
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
I see the GFS Op has been promising all sorts of varied eye candy in FI recently, but with little support. Whereas the mean 8-10 day anomaly charts posted last week are again a good match for pressure and temps at t+0 below.
Still way above average over parts of europe, with the coldest anomalies in the northern hemisphere over the US.
Scanning the latest T+144 charts (2nd Nov) there is still a lot of variation across the models with a shallow low digging E/SE ahead of a small ridge.
After that, in 8-10 day outlook, there is nice agreement between ECM and GFS means for renewed Greenland-Iceland heights, with NAO and AO potentially turning -ve again after a brief zonal spell next week.
Much better set up with mid atlantic highs, and a band of low's undercutting the northern blocking on a NW/SE track. However if the lows end up west of the alps, the southern alps would get the most snow, while if the lows can push further east the northern alps would do well....at altitude for now.
There has been good snow falling in Iceland recently.....and here's a cool shot my brother-in-law took of the aurora borealis over their summer house last night
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
GFS op today.
GFS op from 10 days ago for yesterday.
GFS op from 8 days ago for today.
Think the op was it was in the right ball park 8-10 days out, but would certainly expect it to be moving around more than the mean, ops gonna op after all.
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
The coming winter in Europe this year will be hot and wet.
@nozawaonsen, we'll probably never agree on mean vs Op.....you once told me using the mean was 'not very helpful', or something along those lines.
The beauty, and inherent accuracy of those 8-10 day charts, is that they include 72 hours of Ops and ensembles. So in the GFSs' case, that's 12 Op runs, and all the ensembles in one chart. Of course you can cherry pick some of those 12 Op runs and say voila. Equally I could highlight some of the very inaccurate Op runs in any period....eg top of the page -12c anomalies for 1st Nov, is now likely to verify as 12-16 degrees warmer than that.
I think at different timeframes and circumstances both are useful.
Last edited by Poster: A snowHead on Sun 27-10-19 20:17; edited 1 time in total
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
That article basically says that a number of models are suggesting a +NAO. As mentioned a couple of pages ago the Met Office Contingencies planners have been suggesting a moderately increased likelihood of a +NAO, CFSv2 is also suggesting that at the moment (as are others I’ve not checked according to the article).
Is a +NAO a bad thing? Firstly it’s very much indicative and at this stage not certain. With a +NAO you would expect over the season that there would be stronger storms coming off the Atlantic and hitting the northern side of the Alps. This would mean at times warmer temperatures and at times increased precipitation. But not across the whole period. And off course +NAO winters often bring huge nordstau snowfalls with deep snow higher up on the northern Alps. Some of the highest recent snowfalls for the northern Alps have cone during periods of +NAO. Lower down there can be an increased chance of rainfall. But it rather depends on the weather (of course). On the south side of the Alps it can mean colder and drier.
But it’s hard to draw precise conclusions from. Is it a bad thing? Not necessarily. Indeed quite possibly it’s great news if you head high and like deep snow. So. If you are looking for fresh snow, look north, be prepared to dodge storms, get ready to pounce. Or. It may not turn out that way at all.
Sorry @Whitegold, that you may not have unearthed the grim news story you appear to have hiked it might be.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
polo wrote:
@nozawaonsenI think at different timeframes and circumstances both are useful.
About sums it up. I wasn’t cherry picking incidentally (and it’s not necessary to suggest I was). Just grabbed the charts that were 8-10 days ago. The mean gives the mean the op shows you what the op is showing. Different charts for different things. The mean alone risks excluding potentially critical outliers. The operational without the context of the mean (or the control) risks leading you down the garden path.
@nozawaonsen, agreed, but on here, we're all surely biased to cold and snowy charts. So it's understandable, and fun, to pick out the nice looking Op charts. It's entirely subjective as to which approach is more misleading / likely to verify.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
@polo, there are a couple of people who seem to like hunting out warm and wet ones...
Well I desperately want all of the cold ones (just droppped a packet on my first splitboard ), but also appreciate a balanced and more realistic outlook, the good, the bad and the trolls.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
What do you consider “high”? 2000 meters or 1500 meters? It seems in the few years I’ve followed you guys it seems the freeze line tends to be 300-400 meters lower in the east than the western or southern alps.
After all it is free
After all it is free
@Ptspeak, very roughly I’d say high is 1500-2000m+, but as you say it tends to be cooler in the eastern Alps as they are under more of a continental than Atlantic influence, so you can knock roughly 300m of that further east. But it’s only very rough estimates of a general climactic outlook which may not turn out that way at all. So...
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Currently here in the UK it seems we are having a good old fashion Autumn so far with gradual cooling frequent rain and no extreme hot and dry spells like recent years , I presume the alps have been experiencing similar conditions.
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Ski the Net with snowHeads
@Rob Mackley, strong Föhn and record breaking warmth in places last week.
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