BTW this chart, is it a summary of all the past 4 GFS runs for the day?
No that's three bits of data for all the runs (the ensemble) at that particular latitude / longitude for the last GFS that started computing at 6.00 am. In the URL you'll see run=6 and you can change that number 6 to 0, 12 or 18 to see the other 3 runs in the last 24 hours.
I'm keeping everything crossed for the Tyrol too.
Hmm, confused now!! How does that differ to the usual wigglies then???
What do you mean by the 'usual wigglies' and why did you think the chart referred to something different ?
The 'wigglies' we look at represent the many and various possible outcomes the supercomputer can come up with as a result of a little bit of deliberately introduced programming chaos and will naturally diverge from a state of agreement (the known present) to all sorts of different outcomes as they model further and further ahead in time. They plot both projected temperatures at a fixed atmospheric pressure along with the surface level rain equivalent precipitation and are always for a fixed point above the surface of the Earth. Sometimes you'll see the most recent model run plotted for a city or location with only the 850 hPa temperature (usually around 1,500 metres ASL) and precipitation such as these GFS wigglies for Geneva & Aberdeen ...
... and the one you referred to is also for data generated by GFS but for a location determined by latitude and longitude in the URL, for any (but not all at the same time) of the last 4 daily model runs and as well as 850 hPa, it also includes the temperature for 500 hPa pressure (usually around 5,500 metres ASL).
You never, ever see them here (and you'll rarely see them posted on the weather forums either) but wigglies are also available for all of the major weather models which publish their data in the public domain ...
... but conspicuously absent on the open internet are the UK's own Met Office model wigglies (they will exist to those who'll pay hard cash for the data generated by the systems generously funded by the British tax payer) and the ECM (a collaborative European weather model from a centre based near Reading and ditto to having to pay for it).
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Quote:
they will exist to those who'll pay hard cash for the data generated by the systems generously funded by the British tax payer
thereby saving the British tax payer money, of course.
they will exist to those who'll pay hard cash for the data generated by the systems generously funded by the British tax payer
thereby saving the British tax payer money, of course.
In which case our government should push them off the fence, make them a commercial organisation & be no longer allowed to accept public donations. The same should apply to the Ordnance Survey.
moffatross, What I meant was how does this wiggly chart differ to the 2nd one posted, apart from having the temp at 500hPa?
No difference.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Well cooler options are still out there in the coming week around 05 and again 08 April (more so further east). But it is going to be rather warm this weekend...
Its tricky with the different models. GFS puts more out for free covering more areas, out to a further date. So there does tend to be a GFS bias. If there were easy to find ECM (or as moffatross, suggests metoffice ensembels) for the Alps that would be a good thing. But GFS does tend to be easier to use. Doesnt make it correct though!
After all it is free
After all it is free
nozawaonsen wrote:
Well cooler options are still out there in the coming week around 05 and again 08 April (more so further east). But it is going to be rather warm this weekend...
Yup, watching those both with ALOT of interest!! How do you guage confidence in either of the cold snaps actually showing up??
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kitenski, repeated pattern increases confidence. Operational and control working together increases confidence. Cross model (eg ECM) support increases confidence.
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so the 12z taking it warm in the operational ain't good then
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
Hope someone can help me on this thread as some advice is needed.
It seems that the forecasts on this thread of high temputures for much of europe are going to be correct with snow-forecast.com predicting well into double figures for much of the Milky way and The Dolomites as someone who has never skiied this late in the year and who has next week booked off work but as of yet has not booked their ski holiday, what should I do?.
Will conditions be that bad that its not worth going or can the snow hold up in those kind of temps.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Vintageryan, book somewhere with lots of snow depth and high skiing, ie up to 3000m, I've skied in 20 degree temps and enjoyed it! You may get hard pistes in the morning, a perfect few hours following the sun as the snow melts the top layer, then it can turn slushy after lunch so stay high.
If it was me I'd still go....
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Vintageryan,
Snow can cetainly hold up in these temperatures, these kind of temps are fairly common at this time of the year. It helps if it freezes well overnight. It looks to me that the problem this year is that the exisiting snow base is far less than usual for the time of the year. I often look to go to a medium altitude resort early April with plenty of North facing stuff. This year it really looks like you need to go high.
Edit kitenski got there before me, same advice though.
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Quote:
Will conditions be that bad that its not worth going or can the snow hold up in those kind of temps.
Vintageryan, in my mind, conditions are bad when it's pouring with freezing rain and sleet, being blown into your face by storm force winds and you can't see the patches of frozen snow between the rocks to find your way back to your car because you're inside dense cloud.
In comparison, skiing on spring snow on a warm & sunny day and then packing up early if it gets too slushy so as to sit & drink a beer in a snowfront bar is actually quite pleasant.
Maybe my tolerance level is higher than yours though.
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Quote:
Maybe my tolerance level is higher than yours though.
You may be right but I have never skiied in those kind of temps so I really didn't know what to expect.
Does anyone have any advice where to go?.
Would really like to go to the Dolomites but its forecasting 14c on monday with rain.
Where at the moment is high enough?.
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
I was in Val d' Isere / Tignes last week, conditions were fab for this time of year. Zermatt is another option.
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Quote:
It looks to me that the problem this year is that the exisiting snow base is far less than usual for the time of the year.
Spot on. In our village, at 1650m, conditions are already worse than I've seen them in mid April for the last 10 years. When it normally just starts to get warm around this time of year, there's still plenty of snow with plenty of life in it. But it's sadly not true now, at medium altitudes. I'd be inclined to head to Tignes (or somewhere with a similar amount of high skiing) too.
However, Italian resorts have done better for snow - so might be worth getting some up to date local info about them.
Spring skiing - hard in the morning, nice late morning, slushy early afternoon, then stop early and put your feet up, is delightful. But we've already had a month of that!
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Vintageryan, well I've been skiing here in Austria down to 750m on northerly slopes and the piste are still in great shape despite the high temps, recent rain and now wall to wall sun. As long as it freezes overnight the snow will hold out well.
Vintageryan,
Snow can cetainly hold up in these temperatures, these kind of temps are fairly common at this time of the year. It helps if it freezes well overnight.
It only holds up when it's deep.
If it's thin, it melts in these temps and there is nothing left to freeze at night... and it's too warm for cannon fodder too.
The near closure of many resorts is proof of this and as the brown grass and rocks bask in the day time sunshine, any new snow over night will struggle to settle.
I'm off to Chatel and Avoriaz next week... cant wait... There's plenty of snow for skiing from 9am right up until early afternoon...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
bar shaker,
Quote:
It only holds up when it's deep.
Hence the rest of my post
Quote:
It looks to me that the problem this year is that the exisiting snow base is far less than usual for the time of the year. This year it really looks like you need to go high.
After all it is free
After all it is free
So, speaking for the Arlberg, GFS still calling for silly high temps this weekend, but a cooler outlook from the 4th/5th April, where the temps could drop from +15 to 0 with some precipitation around!
after that some disagreement, some runs going back to +15, some calling for 'only' +5 so will be interesting to see how it pans out over the coming days.
Any experts care to offer what other forecasts are looking like post 5th April??
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anyone know if the weather in Scotland is going to calm down for the weekend. hoping the storms that are battering the highlands now aren't going to damage the slopes too much!
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kitenski, wetter.at for hauser near schladming seems to support colder and snow from 4 april onwards, could be an early april fool, lets hope not.
More spring skiing this morning, solid piste at 8:30, nice and soft by 10ish.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
shoogly, from MWIS:
Planning Outlook for all mountain areas from Friday, 1st April, 2011
Widespread rain over most mountain areas, heaviest in western Scotland on Friday - although there will be very little across Wales and the southern Pennines. Rain will clear on Saturday to give a colder showery period, with freezing levels in Scotland at around 900m. Much milder again from Tuesday, with further rain, again mostly over western Scotland.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
kitenski, fingers crossed. Forecast for Kaprun looks hopeful, especially up on the glacier
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Elizabeth B wrote:
kitenski, fingers crossed. Forecast for Kaprun looks hopeful, especially up on the glacier
I'm just back from 3 days on Kitzstienhorn.... if you are going in the next week or so be prepared for typical spring skiing....and plan to quit by 2pm. If you can get up in time for the first lifts you will not be disappointed....First couple of hours are amazing! The Glacier really is the only place worth skiing...Zell Am See is in a poor state...
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
I never understand this quit by 2pm stuff, wide skis, stay high, or bash some slushy moguls, plenty of fun in the afternoons.
but back on topic and looking at the wigglies for the Arlberg, seems to be above average temps, but a temporary plunge of about 15 degrees over the coming days and hopefully some new snow. Then warming up again, with the hint of a similiar drop/precipitation event around the 8th/9th, before warming up again, and something to keep my eye on around the 13th/14th....
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
kitenski wrote:
I never understand this quit by 2pm stuff, wide skis, stay high, or bash some slushy moguls, plenty of fun in the afternoons.
Totally agree! Problem is that everyone and their uncle had the same idea.... and by 2 the top runs were so bumpy and busy it really took the fun away... I tried it and spent all my time watching out for others who were struggling in the conditions - I really did not enjoy it.. defeats the purpose
sorry...dragged off topic!
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
It's been very hot and sunny across the Alps over the last few days. Far milder than you would expect for the time of year. It does look like it will cool down quite a bit at the start of the coming week towards more seasonal temperatures, but this looks like only being a brief interlude before some very warm temperatures return in the second half of the week. Although there look like being further cooler (or at least seasonal) periods these are bookended by more very warm temperatures. All in all good for the sun terraces, but looking more like mid to late April on the slopes.
Some interesting stats in an article in Osterreich this morning, suggesting the ski industry was expecting between 2 and 3% drop in profits this year. Across the province of Salzburg there has been only half as much snowfall this season as normal, and Lech-Zurs has produced an extra 100,000 cubic meters of artificial snow. This year the bill for snow cannons and artificial snow production for the Arlberg lift company has been 9 million euros.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Quote:
Far milder than you would expect for the time of year.
And all over. Drove back from the Mediterranean coast of Italy today. Stopped for a cold drink in St Gervais - around 5.30 pm, it was 21 degrees and very pleasant in a T shirt with a cold Coke.
In Northern Italy we were told this was the weather of late May. We have only been away from Les Saisies for 3 days and the deterioration in the snow cover was very marked.
so, no sting in the tail of this long dry winter then!
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
off to Megeve this weekend, it's looking pretty desperate I know but am wondering if anyone can offer any crumbs of comfort - any chance of it getting colder and/or snow? We are going with Simon Butler who are talking of bussing us to les Contamines which apparently is holding up a bit better? We'll have a car so any advice on where else we can drive to would be appreciated. Thankfully we are going to Risoul the following week which seems to be holding it's snow a wee bit better.
shoogly, the sting in the tail appears to be the hairdryer in full force....
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
kitenski, indeed! a bit disappointing and i feel quite sorry for all those folks who are expecting a good easter ski hol
After all it is free
After all it is free
shoogly, I am one of those folk, but fortunately out this weekend, so we shall ski what we find and enjoy ourselves regardless!
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philipb, I drove through Megeve on Saturday on my way home, the daffodils were out.
All the Espace Diamant stations apart from Les Saisies have closed, only the Rochebrune, Plaine Joux, Le Radaz and Cote 2000 lifts are still running in Megeve today.
How far would you want to drive ? Unless you go to Tignes then I doubt you would get more than a couple of hours of worthwhile skiing.
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philipb, I suspect that Les Contamines is a bit better than Les Saisies, but I'd agree with rjs that there's nowhere nearby which would give you more than a couple of hours. Les Saisies is being heavily rained upon today. I plan to go into the ski school tomorrow morning and have a word with them about prospects for the lessons we've booked for my grand-daughter, next week. Might just be OK for a 7 year old to have 3 x 1.5 hour private lessons - their flights are paid for, might be worth their coming.
Can't say for the Grand Montets as I don't know it. That would be within reach but maybe everybody and his auntie will be up there.
tomorrow the sun will be shining but today is a completely ghastly day - rain, rather cold (but not cold enough) very poor vis, and as far as I can see from the webcams, nobody out and about. I have no intention of actually going and looking for myself.
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