Windskisurf, well apart from the fact you can't forecast that far ahead! It could easily turn to rain over there and snow in Europe!!
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
By and large most of the models continue to see a slight cooling down (to around seasonal averages) from Sunday into the middle of next week before temperatures rise again. GFS seems slightly less set on this than most of the other models. Probably some light snow on Sunday at altitude. In general though it is a spring like outlook.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Quote:
It could easily turn to rain over there and snow in Europe!!
Let's hope so, kitenski, or mid April skiing is going to be fairly rubbish in most places, including here. I am beginning to research other things a 7 year old might enjoy doing.
Has anyone any thoughts on whether there will be snow in or around Les Gets? We are heading out on the 8 th April and in previous years there has always been a huge dump of snow!
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
snowflake38, welcome to snowheads. 8 April is still some way off but at the moment the prospects are not looking too clever. Nearby Avoriaz is a fair bit higher and should still have some snow. Keep watching this thread and this one specifically about Les Gets. http://snowheads.com/ski-forum/viewtopic.php?t=66981&start=800
Quite a bullish 00z GFS. Operational not that far off the control. So potentially quite a bit of snow (at altitude) around 28 March if that were to verify. Wetter's charts are missing the operational this morning which doesn't help...
ECM 00z keeps things cool for much of next week once we are past this weekend. Here is Wednesday.
Let's see where we are this evening.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
So, nozawaonsen, almost no snow all year, and the weekend we arrive in France for our week's skiing, you're saying we're going to get loads of snow? Wahey
After all it is free
After all it is free
DaKid, not really. I'm saying this morning's models include the possibility of some snow at altitude Sunday/Monday. I'd say the probability is that it will be light snow, but the possibility, slightly stronger after this morning's GFS run is that is could be heavier, but you would need to see that repeated over several runs before you had any real confidence.
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Chamonix meteo are now calling snow from Sat night onwards down to 1700m at first. It's always good when they start saying it's going to snow
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wetter.at have had snow for sat and sun for a couple of days now. Though starting with high snowline.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
nozawaonsen wrote:
DaKid, not really. I'm saying this morning's models include the possibility of some snow at altitude Sunday/Monday. I'd say the probability is that it will be light snow, but the possibility, slightly stronger after this morning's GFS run is that is could be heavier, but you would need to see that repeated over several runs before you had any real confidence.
I shall remain wildly and inappropriately optimistic, if it's all the same to you
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
snowflake38, I was in Les Gets today and it is pretty desperate. No snow anywhere in sight, just a few pistes holding on as white stripes with green hills all around. One local suggested that the resort is considering closing at the end of next week. Hire shops in town have got the mountain bikes out!
Sorry!
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Pretty warm over the next few days, before a change arrives at the weekend. Temperatures will drop, though still looking rather mild for the time of year. And the potential for some snowfall across the Alps remains Saturday through Tuesday. How much? It chops and changes.
But a number of runs today are suggesting it could be quite a bit in places. With a snow line around 1600m to 1800m+.
From midweek... warming up and more sunshine...
Les Deux Alpes/ Alpes D'Huez
The Arlberg
Quite a warm trend in FI. But then again it's too far off to take seriously and so too far off to worry about... (yet).
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
noza, It has been a terrible season in the European Alps this year.
One of the worst for several years.
In contrast, most of northern Europe, North America and northeast Asia have had good seasons.
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Very warm in Tignes this morning. It's 07.28 local time and water is dripping off the roofs at an alarming rate.
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
stewart woodward, The webcams are showing 100 mile visibility today. It looks stunning but the freeze level will go up to 2700m. Definitely a day for SPF 50!
Set to get colder with snow on Sunday, possibly quite a bit.
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Whitegold, yes I think few people will reminisce about the great 2010/2011 season in the Alps except perhaps in parts of Italy. Of course any season is made up of moments and if you have happened to have been lucky or at least made the most of your luck then there been good times aplenty. And as you say the poor season in the Alps compares to a great season in North America and at least from snow a good season in Japan.
Overall winter (D, J, F) was probably not far off average temperature wise. Possibly over or under. I'd be interested in comparing average temperatures from various places in the Alps over the season. But the very cold weather in December will have offset some of the subsequent milder winter temperatures [edit: in terms of the overall seasonal average].
However once the northern blocking of December pulled away high pressure repeatedly dominated much of western Europe forcing the jet to the north, which subsequently prevented high pressure reestablishing itself to the north. More over particularly for the northern French Alps more often than not this meant snow fell to the east as the jet was forced over the top.
When the Atlantic did break through it brought mild temperatures too, so an already low base got hit by mild temperatures and rain.
Later in winter we saw a series of low pressure systems moving in to the Mediterranean. These brought significant snowfall to the north west of Italy and also parts of the southern French Alps.
Much of spring so far has tended towards being milder than normal.
Interestingly there was a fairly broad consensus gradually developing from as early as August amongst the LRF's that Europe would experience a colder, but drier winter (not least in response to the growing La Nina). Obviously these things are pretty broad brush, but certainly winter kicked off exceptionally cold and certainly remained dry.
Anyway more short term. Models split over extent of snow coming on or around 27 March (GFS pushing it back towards the end of next week, Euros still keeping options open).
Temperatures mild. Sun never too far away. It's spring. There is still snow. Head high. There's still plenty of fun to be had.
Last edited by Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person on Thu 24-03-11 9:56; edited 2 times in total
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Dont think the northern french alps will get anything this weekend - the GFS has the low passing to the south.
Interestingly there was a fairly broad consensus gradually developing from as early as August amongst the LRF's that Europe would experience a colder, but drier winter (not least in response to the growing La Nina). Obviously these things are pretty broad brush, but certainly winter kicked off exceptionally cold and certainly remained dry.
noza, I remember those longterm forecasts. Cold in first quarter of season. Warm in next three quarters. Largely on the money.
I have not checked any stats yet, but my gut says snowfall in the European Alps this season will end up hugely below the longterm average.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Whitegold wrote:
I have not checked any stats yet, but my gut says snowfall in the European Alps this season will end up hugely below the longterm average.
On the basis that there hasn't really been any snowfall this season, do you want go away, check the figures and come back to let us know how much you are prepared to bet?
After all it is free
After all it is free
It's not just snowfall, there's been very little precipitation of any variety.
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but if I read all that right, still above average temperatures???
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Quote:
It's not just snowfall, there's been very little precipitation of any variety.
do you think that might become a problem for France this summer if its a warm dry one? No snow in the bank=empty reservoirs?
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
Never fear we are camping in the Alps for 2-weeks in the summer so you can be sure of rain then
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Quote:
do you think that might become a problem for France this summer if its a warm dry one
yes, definitely. Davidof reported on that on another thread. I've not been to one of the many big hydro dams round here this winter, but I bet they're looking pretty low.
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
pam w wrote:
Quote:
do you think that might become a problem for France this summer if its a warm dry one
yes, definitely. Davidof reported on that on another thread. I've not been to one of the many big hydro dams round here this winter, but I bet they're looking pretty low.
The biggest problem for skiers will be more glacier shrinkage this Summer.
With below-average snow built up over the Winter, there will likely be extensive melting this Summer.
Marginal glaciers like Val d'Isere, Tignes or Les Deux Alpes may get battered.
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Quote:
Marginal glaciers like Val d'Isere, Tignes or Les Deux Alpes may get battered
nothing new about that, they've been battered for years. I was chastened to be shown, by an instructor who had been in Tignes for just 17 years, where the glacier had been when he arrived. Easiski will tell the same story about Les Deux Alpes.
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
hmm, looking at the GFS for the Arlberg, looks like some precipitation around 27th, with a dip in temps shortly afterwards, then slowly warming up as we go into April, but then a hint of it cooling down again out in FI, and a huge spike from the GFS around the 5th April that I will be watching with interest!!
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Some pretty warm temperatures forecast. And the aspect of the terrace you choose to sit on is going to be all important. East facing terraces will get the sun early and are likely to be most suited to an early morning coffee or hair of the dog. South facing should be excellent for chilled bottle of wine at lunch and south west or west facing for a beer from about 3pm when the pistes are soft...
Anyway, conditions for the coming week look consistently mild, though slightly cooler in the east overnight. It looks like there could be some snow into Sunday/Monday. The WRF chart below suggests this could bring 5cm to 10cm plus in some areas, freezing line looks like it will be between 1600 to 1800m depending.
There could well be another band of snow midweek depending. Although it looks like being fairly cloudy Sunday/Monday the sun looks like it will be pushing back in from Tuesday.
By the end of the week temperatures are pushing higher and the weekend, looks like there could be some high temperatures across the Alps.
Beyond that in deep FI (and clearly very low confidence) the trend continues mild, just possibly cooling towards the very end of the run. There has been a suggestion in about 50% of the GFS runs over the last few days of something kicking up on or around 05/06 April which could bring snow at altitude (as kitenski mentions).
So warm, spring weather in the Alps.
Well worth reading this piece from HAT on spring skiing!
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
So what's happening in the next couple of days?
Well it looks rather like it's going to snow! Now of course this being spring and a mild one at that this is going to be a mixed blessing if you are lower down and in many villages this will mean rain. The snow line looks like it could be around 1900m+, but it is moving around a fair amount.
What that does mean is snow at altitude though and in parts of France in particular this could be quite a bit...
Here's the latest WRF out to Monday night (and it represents a bit of an upgrade on the 00z).
Elsewhere looking towards the middle to end of this week there is a possibility of more snow (look at the control), but that is going to need some firming up yet. Tuesday and Wednesday looks sunny in the east.
Further out still the 12z operational throws into the mix a cooler run into FI with a couple of cooler dips in April. Now it's going against the trend (which is still solid mild) so this is far from being a probability. But worth keeping a hopeful eye on to see if the possibility develops any momentum. On the subject of outsiders also worth keeping an eye on the possible snowfall (at altitude) around 05 April.
Going to Pila Italy tomorrow, what can I expect? I know it's never definate, but I don't even know if I'm East West or wherever!!
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Gilly28, spring. A bit of everything. Some snow over the next couple of days high up, but not too much, then again north west Italy has done rather well earlier in the season. Rather mild for the time of year.
18z operational also going cooler (comparatively) a couple of times in FI, 05 and 10 April. And possibly snowing around 05 April too... ECM 12z tips its hat in that direction too. Worth keeping an eye on. Mind you it will be really rather warm for the first few days of April by the looks of things...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
yes watching the cool spells with alot of interest, something on the cards, if it comes I will be a happy bunny, in the Arlberg from the 10th...
BTW this chart, is it a summary of all the past 4 GFS runs for the day?
BTW this chart, is it a summary of all the past 4 GFS runs for the day?
No that's three bits of data for all the runs (the ensemble) at that particular latitude / longitude for the last GFS that started computing at 6.00 am. In the URL you'll see run=6 and you can change that number 6 to 0, 12 or 18 to see the other 3 runs in the last 24 hours.
I'm keeping everything crossed for the Tyrol too.
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My amateur reading of the wiggles suggests I should take my golf clubs to the Arlberg this weekend. Bergfex has 18 Degrees (Centigrade) on Saturday.
Can anyone offer a less pessimistic interpretation ?
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moffatross wrote:
kitenski wrote:
BTW this chart, is it a summary of all the past 4 GFS runs for the day?
No that's three bits of data for all the runs (the ensemble) at that particular latitude / longitude for the last GFS that started computing at 6.00 am. In the URL you'll see run=6 and you can change that number 6 to 0, 12 or 18 to see the other 3 runs in the last 24 hours.
I'm keeping everything crossed for the Tyrol too.
Hmm, confused now!! How does that differ to the usual wigglies then???
FAQ
Poster: A snowHead
8 April is still some way off but at the moment the prospects are not looking too clever. Nearby Avoriaz is a fair bit higher and should still have some snow. Keep watching this thread and this one specifically about Les Gets. 
