 Poster: A snowHead
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| pam w wrote: |
And because today's actual weather is probably a more accurate guide to what we can expect in a couple of days than the myths being peddled by the so-called weather forecasters, many of whom, including chamonix meteo, have got it fairly spectacularly wrong.
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I can't see how today's actual weather is a more accurate guide to whats going to happen in two days time? Today's weather is todays weather. It might be sunny today but in two days time it could be chucking it down with heavy snow or rain? I think I'll stick to reading the weather charts and satellite & radar images rather than base a forecast on whats happening right now!!
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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jimmybog, yes, I don't disagree actually!  Generally the forecasts, where they all agree, are pretty useful though as Noza has been telling us for a long time now, when there's huge variation and uncertainty, they are fairly useless. Certainly for the last few days it would have been nearer reality to assume that things were going to go on much the way they were - next week around here now looks like being quite like last week (warm and sunny for the most part) whereas GFS and the forecasts based on it were telling it very cold until recently. Hence the hopeful comments about snow cannons.
It's the difference between what is happening and what was forecast which can be quite interesting, if you try to work out why.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Temperatures look set to drop, cooling beneath seasonal averages for the next few days across the Alps. High pressure and sunshine should become increasingly prevalent from Sunday. And the spring sunshine will warm things up during the day. It should be very pleasant.
By mid week temperatures will be rising though and heading slightly milder by the weekend.
From here there is quite a bit of uncertainty. In general it looks like there is milder outlook, but a number of runs continue to offer a switch to colder temperatures from the north. I would expect this to start to become clearer in a couple of days.
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First ski trip in 20 years, and worst French-Alps snow in 10. Bother.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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on the meteogram, is the 2nd box pressure? and thus showing it rising and then starting to fall again at the end of the month in this chart??
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kitenski, yes
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yep... the alps are going to be bathing under yet another area of high pressure all next week by the looks of it. Not bad temps though so should be a great week... looks like it'll be chopping and chaning between northerly and easterly winds as well.
I'm now demob happy and can't wait 
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jimmybog, I read somewhere that tomorrows weather is more or less the same as todays, 85% of the time. I guess the forecasters give us an extra 10% and a couple of extra days.
I do know for certain the forecast has no impact on the weather what so ever
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| Quote: |
First ski trip in 20 years, and worst French-Alps snow in 10. Bother.
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where are you going, DaKid?
Warm sunshine when you ski is really very nice, you know - and softish snow is better than ice and much better than no snow.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| As flagged up on TWO updated Japanese seasonal forecast has warmer than average Winter for UK, colder than average for alps. Strong and long La Nina and heavy snow for parts of Japan. Good for everyone planning to ski in Japan this season , perhaps less so for those skiing in Europe as precipitation is forecast to be lower than average across Europe. |
Wow, that was August, you were well on the money.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| pam w wrote: |
where are you going, DaKid?
Warm sunshine when you ski is really very nice, you know - and softish snow is better than ice and much better than no snow. |
Getting the train to Arc 1800, a week tomorrow 
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Split between the GFS 12z control and operational runs from next weekend underlines the current uncertainty over next week. Probability of mild remains more likely, but colder options certainly exist...
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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The perigree moon is shining bright tonight. Going to be a cold one.
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Poster: A snowHead
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spat, holy crap - what is that!? I love the look and feel, but have absolutely no idea what most of it does...pretty though 
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Some smashing weather over next few days.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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There has over the last few days been a slight suggestion that we would see temperatures cooling from today into midweek, then warming up to the weekend, then (and this is the bit that is less clear) possibly cooling into midweek next week, before warming towards the next weekend.
Still very much just a ghost in the machine, but the GFS 06Z ensembles shows it quite strongly. It will be interesting to see whether this does indeed develop over the next few runs (I mean the part about midweek next week).
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12z GFS keeps with the idea of a slight cooling mid week next week. It all really depends on how far cold air from the north flows down.
In the meantime a couple more days of cooler temperatures before some really spring like temperatures take hold for the weekend.
At the moment as I mention above it does look like it is possible there will be a slight cooling midweek before it warms up again going into the next weekend.
Some snow possible at altitude on 27 March.
Spring is here.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
Spring is here. |
can you tell it politely to go away........
thank you for all the effort you have put into this thread this season...its been excellent reading
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nozawaonsen, - I will second that - is your real name Michael Fish? 
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18z GFS continues the trend for a slightly cooler than average middle of next week. Will be interesting to see if this is sustained through tomorrow..
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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^ Colder over Scotland into the weekend and early next week?
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roga, yes as I mentioned a few posts above the weather pattern in Scotland is slightly reversed. In the Alps it is colder than seasonally you might expect though warming towards the weekend. In Scotland it is currently relatively mild. The same cold air which could reach the Alps next week looks like arriving in Scotland with the weekend.
06z continues the trend.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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roga, BBC countryfile weather for the week ahead were calling snow showers by Friday this week in Scotland...
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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nozawaonsen, it's certainly cooled down and clouded over this afternoon in Serre Che.
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12z runs continue to suggest cooler, if not cold conditions early next week, before warming up again.
Check the BBQs, check the wax, check the girls on the terrace next door...
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You know it makes sense.
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Can anyone pls tell me what the weather forecast is for 3v's? I'm going on sat and would like an idea if were gonna see fresh snow or blue bird skys....
Thanks
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Can I also chuck in a request for thoughts on the weather for Saas Fee from this coming Sunday onwards. Out there for the first time with the family so hope it's a good one - I see some more snow is forecast for Sunday!
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Poster: A snowHead
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Last couple of runs have seen GFS talking itself out of bringing in slightly cooler weather across the Alps for a few days next week. ECM still considering it.
Same goes with possibility of snow on Sunday which GFS is also backing away from. GFS in general pushing a more solid sunny spring outlook.
Will see whether they have settled in one direction this evening.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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FI looking very warm (at least for the Arlberg)...still plenty of time for a cool down/April showers before I arrive on 10th April!!
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| kitenski wrote: |
| FI looking very warm (at least for the Arlberg)...still plenty of time for a cool down/April showers before I arrive on 10th April!! |
I'll be 10 miles away at Ischgl in the next valley the same week so I'm keeping an eye on evelopments too. For the Arlberg area, the GFS shows a long term view that is looking unsettled at least ... http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=&ext=1&y=&run=6&lat=47&lon=10&runpara=0 ... so there's probably more chance of major precipitation in the next 2-3 weeks than any time this year.
As our group's Easter trips invariably coincide with major dumpage, the plot above is a good sign. A little tweak in the position of the high pressure is all it'd take for the majority of those 850's to be below freezing.
The ECM model has a large chunk of the polar vortex spinning down to ever lower latitudes but just stays a bit too far East to deliver the snowy goods at the moment ... http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECH1-240.GIF?22-12
Other models are indicating more conducive synoptics  ... http://91.121.84.31/modeles/nogaps/run/nogapsnh-0-144.png?22-11
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| moffatross wrote: |
A little tweak in the position of the high pressure is all it'd take for the majority of those 850's to be below freezing.
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But as things stand, doesn't it look like rain to quite high altitude in early April?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| Red Leon wrote: |
| moffatross wrote: |
A little tweak in the position of the high pressure is all it'd take for the majority of those 850's to be below freezing.
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But as things stand, doesn't it look like rain to quite high altitude in early April? |
Yes. Although it will work out quite differently, if you did ignore Foehn warming, evaporative cooling and frontal activity etc and just pretended that any precipitation would fall with no other factor other than a standard atmospheric lapse rate affecting the rain/snow boundary at a flat mean of +5C for 850 hPa, it would create a rain/snow boundary of about 2,400 metres.
Last edited by Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do. on Tue 22-03-11 14:28; edited 1 time in total
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| moffatross wrote: |
| Red Leon wrote: |
| moffatross wrote: |
A little tweak in the position of the high pressure is all it'd take for the majority of those 850's to be below freezing.
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But as things stand, doesn't it look like rain to quite high altitude in early April? |
Yes. Although it will work out quite differently, if you did ignore Foehn warming, evaporative cooling and frontal activity etc and just pretended that any precipitation would fall with no other factor other than a standard atmospheric lapse rate affecting the rain/snow boundary at a flat mean of +5C for 850 hPa, it would create a rain/snow boundary of about 2,400 metres. |
Wow, that has to be one of the most comprehensive answers that I don't understand at all
If your off somewhere near me at the same time I shall look forward to you forecasting dumpage and dropping temps! Like you I think I have had fresh snow every holiday taken over Easter for the past 8 years or so!!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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If you want to go skiing sometime over the next two weeks and want powder (I do) isn't the no brainer option to forget europe and head to mammoth mountain et al - looks like they are getting record dumps now and more next week - anyone been before? rough plan fly into LAX, then hire a car or ?
Is there another thread where i can coherse others to join me in this last minute idea...
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Windskisurf, yeah that's probably not a bad plan.
I've driven to Mammoth from LAX a couple of times and the drive is fine, hiring in LA is easy enough but as far as I know they don't do winter tyres so you might want to buy some chains on the way. IIRC there's a place in Bishop where you can buy chains before the road starts climbing up high.
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FAQ
I'll just shut up and go back to looking at the pretty pictures 