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The all new 10/11 Weather Outlook thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
wow, the pyrenees are having an exceptional run of snow falls in the past month and it just seems to keep going. Really hope that some of that snow beefs up a bit in the Frenchland alps.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
06z WRF looks like a pretty big downgrade on tonights precipitation for the Northern French Alps (inc. Tarentaise)

06z GFS looks quite bullish though.

Who to believe? Confused
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
The former - Tignes website / Meteo fFrance have been promising a big dump for the last 3 days.

Has it happened?

Hell no!
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Well, for the third time in three years the best skiing in Europe is right here in Britain !

The forecast for the rest of March could deliver more stable weather and then into the long range the suggestion is a cooler and wetter first half of April. If that is cool enough for more snow we would be looking at an epic run of skiable months, possibly 13 or 14 out of the last 18!
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Peter S wrote:
Well, for the third time in three years the best skiing in Europe is right here in Britain !


I'd say the pyrenees last year might effectively dispute that statement.. or even possibly the year before. I was boarding there on 16/04/09 and you'd have thought we were in the midlle of a good February there was so much snow..

And Italy this year might disagree as well...
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Meteo cham forecasting a dump

OVERNIGHT
Rainy from the east
SKY CONDITIONS (cloud) : overcast.
PRECIPITATION : continuous and light - moderate at times towards the middle of the night - rain-snow limit dropping towards 1600 m - expected snowfall towards 2000 m : 20-30 cm.
WIND - aloft : E -> NE -> NNE light to moderate.
TEMPERATURE : +4 °C.

TOMORROW - THURSDAY MARCH 17
Rainy - getting colder
SKY CONDITIONS (cloud - sunshine) : overcast - becoming mostly cloudy towards the evening - period of sunshine close to 0%.
PRECIPITATION : continous and light rain in the morning - showers in the afternoon, becoming scattered - rain-snow limit towards 1400 m, dropping - expected snowfall towards 2000 m : 15-25 cm.
WIND - aloft : NNE light to moderate -> moderate to strong.
TEMPERATURE : min +4 °C - max +5 °C.


freezing level just about OK.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
I like Cham meteo they seem to be very accurate and conservative. normally if they say it's going to snow it snows Madeye-Smiley
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Arteta10, indeed, they've been the most accurate local forecast of any place I've ever skied.
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Arteta10 wrote:
I like Cham meteo they seem to be very accurate and conservative. normally if they say it's going to snow it snows Madeye-Smiley


They provide forecasts for expeditions all over the world, they tend to be highly accurate locally, they were under threat of closure but survived because so many rely on it.
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Chamonix meteo are quite optimistic about precipitation but rain/snow level is going to be critical.
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Good, we're all agreed. snowHead
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Actually, chamonix is forecasting a good deal more snow than snow-forecast at the moment (we invariably get more centimetres than predicted by snow-forecast). If the Cham forecast comes off higher altitudes should do really well. Indeed, if their forecast comes off higher areas should get more than at any time in the season so far. I'm a bit dubious. But it's just started raining very lightly here, temperature at 1500m 4 degrees and dropping.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Just had my hourly check on the webcam at Valmeinier (off there in 3 weeks) and it's snowing thick and fast!! Allowing myself a happy grin. Very Happy
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Kruisler, perhaps *some* of the best snow in Europe???


http://youtube.com/v/zkmIWimoDGY
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
roga,
This week, no argument! Toofy Grin
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Kruisler, Cool
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
^^ stunning video, looks awesome!
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
looks like Aosta / Monterosa got some today!!!
http://www.regione.vda.it/protezione_civile/meteo/dati/Graf05.gif
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Should be snow at altitude coming into the Northern French Alps now.



And tomorrow morning.

This should continue moving across the Alps tomorrow and into Friday.

Potentially quite a bit of snow into parts of Switzerland, the Arlberg and Tirol come early hours of Friday.

Clearly the snow line (1800m to 1600m) could be an issue (indeed will be for lower lying areas), but it will be cooling over the next couple of days.

High pressure and cooler temperatures look likely for the first half of next week, probably warming slightly, but very unsure beyond that. 18z ends up with a cooler FI with snow. 12z was milder. Too soon to call.

If you are high up, then there should be fresh snow over the next couple of days in many parts of the Alps. With cooler weather and some sunshine over the weekend and early next week. Sounds alright.
wink
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Now heavy rain in Chatel (at 1300m). Just had to close the Velux. Hopefully snow not too much higher.
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Raining at 1500m in Les Saisies, too, though it's below freezing. Hopefully will turn to snow before long.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Absolutely thumped it down here in Serre Che last night: first rain, then snow. Still snowing heavily now. Rain-snow limit below 1500m. POWDER DAY snowHead nozawaonsen's predictions last week were spot on snowHead
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Steady rain in Chatel at 1300m and has been most of the night. Can't see a snowline though above around 1600m its just cloud.

I suspect the forecasts were correct and it is snow above 1800m.
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Sunday into Wednesday next week looks like it will be quite cool for the time of year, especially in the east, and sunny.

If you are high enough to take advantage of the snow coming down over the next couple of days it could be very pleasant. wink

Warming gradually though the week and with the possibility of sunshine during the day temperatures will rise during the day too (it is Spring).

After that... this morning's FI output sends a mixed rather mild message, but with no real confidence at this stage.
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 Damien
Damien
Guest
A good 10cm in Les Menuires at resort level and still snowing Very Happy
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nozawaonsen and Damien all good news Very Happy

can't wait to jump on the plane at the weekend now
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
I'm guessing from the webcams it is raining in St Anton and snowing in Stuben...
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
been snowing here since about 2 am (1500m) but not heavily. It's white, but only about an inch or so. Obviously will be more up higher. Visibility is very low so I can't see where the snowline is - not far below, by the look of it.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Why are so many people posting weather reports in this thread? Isn't this supposed to be the "Weather Outlook thread"? There are lots of other threads that cover most of the Alps where you can post your snow reports to!!
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
jimmybog, well said that man! This thread should be brutally moderated
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
^^ & ^ and all off-topic transgressors flailed alive ... starting with you two Wink
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Looking like a few more cm's of snow might be on the cards for the 3V's next Tuesday/Wednesday.

Temps also look set to stay low for the week which will give pistes a good chance of some recovery.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
jimmybog, +2!

roga, wink Me too!
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Quote:

Why are so many people posting weather reports in this thread?

Because the systematic observation of the difference between forecasts and the empirical evidence outside our windows lies at the heart of an understanding of the unknowable phenomenon of "weather".

And because today's actual weather is probably a more accurate guide to what we can expect in a couple of days than the myths being peddled by the so-called weather forecasters, many of whom, including chamonix meteo, have got it fairly spectacularly wrong.

roga, I think you mean "flayed"? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flaying wink

I wish I could believe that temperatures next week will be cold enough for cannons.
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Kersh wrote:
roga, wink Me too!

Laughing
pam w wrote:
roga, I think you mean "flayed"? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flaying wink

I think you're right! Toofy Grin
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shoogly wrote:
wow, the Pyrenees are having an exceptional run of snow falls in the past month and it just seems to keep going. Really hope that some of that snow beefs up a bit in the Frenchland alps.


Here in the central Pyrenees the snow level has been drifting between 1300m and 1500m for the last couple of days, at Peyragudes (everything is above 1600m) they reported 40cm yesterday and 20cm the day before. Overall the snow depths are fine almost everywhere though the snow is wet at low levels.

Current depths:

Superbagneres: 130/80
Peyragudes: 150/100
Baqueira Beret: 240/170

The last few weeks of the season are looking very nice indeed, tons of snow, typical spring conditions and more importantly empty slopes.... Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
jbob wrote:
Arteta10 wrote:
I like Cham meteo they seem to be very accurate and conservative. normally if they say it's going to snow it snows Madeye-Smiley


They provide forecasts for expeditions all over the world, they tend to be highly accurate locally, they were under threat of closure but survived because so many rely on it.


You are confused with Meteo France's office in Chamonix run by Yan Giezendanner which has nothing to www.chamonix-meteo.com which issued the forecast above.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
davidof, which one displays info in the Chamonix tourist office every day? (I'm confused now.)
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Hurtle wrote:
davidof, which one displays info in the Chamonix tourist office every day? (I'm confused now.)


No idea, someone would have to look at www.chamonix-meteo.com and compare with what is shown in the t/o.

However www.chamonix-meteo.com is an independent weather forecaster using GFS models (like here) and has been funded by the tourist offices in the Chamonix valley in the past.

It was Meteo France in Chamonix that was threatened with closure and they provide forecasts for expeditions. You can get their forecasts on Minitel (3615 METEO + no. de dept) and by phone on a premium rate number.
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davidof, ah. Thanks.
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