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The all new 10/11 Weather Outlook thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Yes, I certainly didn't mean to suggest it has been a good season across the Alps, although it may be hard to remember now the very cold temperatures of December (and record snowfall in parts of Austria). I think I meant that it was not universally bad (and as others have said) the poor snow in France has coloured the overall perception.

Overall (and compared to their own averages rather than each other) I'd have though you might give the Northern French Alps a 1 out of 5, Switzerland a 1 too (?), Austria a 2, Italy and Southern French Alps certainly a 3, maybe just reaching a 4?

And of course in the end it all comes down to personal perception. As it happens the skiing I've done this season has been by and large in fresh powder. At the same time for various reasons I have cancelled more trips than I have skied this season.

So I guess fair enough to say it has (overall) been poor so far, but some parts (Italy, Southern French Alps) have probably seen at least average if not slightly better than average.

Of course still a month and more to go (though I think mid March we can safely say we are now in Spring)...


Last edited by Poster: A snowHead on Sun 13-03-11 23:42; edited 1 time in total
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Quote:

mid March we can safely say we are now in Spring

since we've been coming out here mid March has seen some of the more impressive accumulations of snow and by far the best skiing. "Late season" skiing, for me, begins around the end of March. This is - or should be - still peak season in many French areas. I've been muttering since mid-January about the big snow coming in in March; not lost faith yet, but..... Puzzled
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Not saying that mid March won't produce more snow. Spring does not necessarily mean we won't see more snow, indeed March is by and large wetter than January and February. But winter finished at the end of February.

Spring does not mean no more snow, nor does it mean no more colder temperatures. But it means it is less likely we will see extended deep cold. And more likely we will see milder stretches.

That said by and large we are seeing cooler temperatures modeled from mid month and some unsettled weather. wink
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Don't we always get a warm spell in march? Often gets folk panicking, but normally seem to get good snow in march/april as well??

Not based on any facts, just my memory/gut feel.....
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http://youtube.com/v/eZQyVUTcpM4
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There is (in the northern French Alps) far, far, more bare ground now than in any March since 2003 - there's just no comparison. Much of it has been bare for some weeks, and baked by weeks of warm weather. Even in March 2007 snow cover was good, after a dire period earlier in the season. I don't recall any talk, or prospect, or "early closures" in any previous year but there are already mutterings to that effect for the end of season 2011. I saw a lot of pistes today, still covered with natural snow but getting very threadbare, that won't last till the end of March without new snow. Some might not make it to the end of this week, if this foehn is complemented by the threatened rainfall.

If there's a couple of decent snowfalls the pistes will be fine, and if temperatures drop enough for the cannons to run, the end of March and into April could be the best time since Christmas/New Year, which was good.
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nozawaonsen wrote:
adam.b, Yep, it's been a good winter for Italy and it looks like there is more to come, I was puzzled on another thread to see someone suggesting they'd heard it had been a "poor season in the Alps," which doesn't really seem to me to have been the case nor what has been reported.

Yes I quite agree, some friends of mine just spent a week out in Italy and they reported the conditions were great, their photos look good too!
Quote:
Really rather poor in Northern French Alps and much of Switzerland, below average, though great at times, in Austria, definitely above average, if not outstanding in Italy

That's certainly in line with what I've been told.
Quote:
(probably the same in Scotland ie not on a par with last year over the season even with a lot of snow in last few days)

Below par when compared to last season which was absolutely exceptional although early this season was excellent and not that dissimilar to 09/10 but there was a very early season start (we've had top to bottom skiing at Cairngorm since early November) then freeze thaw weeks from after Xmas into mid January with the occasional snow to freshen stuff up (probably more than in the western Alps) then a relatively okay February but over the last couple of weeks a gradual melt but still some good on-piste (poorer off-piste) and now ... goodness, well now quite exceptional amounts of snow coming down across all the ski areas and still snowing very, very heavily.

I guess overall it's been above average for on-piste but around or a bit below average for off, I suspect the latter is about to change significantly though!
Quote:
probably same in Southern French Alps.

L2A has had it's ups and downs from what I hear but okay at the moment I believe.
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pam w wrote:
There is (in the northern French Alps) far, far, more bare ground now than in any March since 2003 - there's just no comparison. Much of it has been bare for some weeks, and baked by weeks of warm weather. Even in March 2007 snow cover was good, after a dire period earlier in the season.


Worst season for a generation then Pam wink

In fact Meteo France are now saying it is the worst snow cover since 1970 for the Vanoise, Maurienne and Haute-Tarentaise and dire elsewhere in the Northern French Alps, it may turn out to be the worst winter since 1964-65.
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roga, yes, I would probably say Scotland has been 3 reaching towards 4 out of 5 compared to it's own record so far (and I'm thinking across the season, not just in the last day or two). So not the 5 out of 5 which last year would have recorded, but probably above average across the season. I think that probably compares with Italy and the Southern French Alps (L2A on the northern edge of this, I'd be thinking more Serre Chevalier and Puy St Vincent).

Again I'm not trying to compare overall snow fall between regions which quickly descends into a rather banal argument about where individuals either skied or own property, live closest to or like most, but just trying to get a sense of how much snowfall compared to their own average places have picked up. Even then it can of course can end up being very subjective.
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davidof, there's been so little precipitation, I guess it must bode ill for water supplies later in the year, unless we get a very wet spring. Yes, definitely the worst season for a generation, so far, but it most certainly wasn't the worst January. wink
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December was pretty good in the Tarentaise, apart from one warm spell of a few days and then a few brutally cold days. November was also OK from what I remember, and my season got off to a splendid start in Tignes at the end of September/beginning of October.
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First week of the season was excellent in La Plagne, I'm hoping end of March and into April in Tignes will be just as good.. least some snow's forecast above 2000 metres mid-week.
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nozawaonsen, yeah I'd say that's a pretty good summation of it so far, maybe closer to a 3 off-piste and closer to 4 on.

One other thing I should say is that this season has really been the one far more people have sat up and noticed Scottish skiing, last season seems to have marked a sea change in perceptions, but the current one is probably closer to the average than many people realise - certainly in the last 3 to 4 years we've had some very good seasons indeed, with 2009/10 the real standout.

Of course the other factor is that many are perceiving the Alpine season this year as being so much worse than usual when in reality it's more the case that the majority of resorts visited by Brits (i.e. the north western Alps, mainly France) have been the ones hardest hit whereas many other places have had an average to good season - again it's all about a perception based on some of the facts that sometimes don't actually reflect the full picture, something Scotland has suffered from in the past!
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The word on the pistes in Austria last week was that any more snowfall now would be fairly useless, the ground is far too warm to hold it. In fairness though, Austria hasn't had a terrible season, the early snow in December was great and the huge dump at the end of January has kept going nicely until now with just a few small top-ups (and snowmaking). It's all still skiable but suffering from warm temperatures. Can't really grumble, it's not as though any of us actually haven't been able to go skiing is it.
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Mild with foehn winds for the next few days.

But quite a change coming midweek as low pressure drives through. Looks like bringing substantial snow at altitude across the Southern French Alps (although probably reaching further north than the most recent band) and particularly Italy and into Eastern Switzerland and Western Austria (the Arlberg).

As the snow moves east cold air is moving west, so this may favour places further east who will have colder temperatures in place when the precipitation arrives. Very tentatively the snow line looks to be around 1800m+, possibly slightly higher as the snow arrives in the west then cooling. Good then for altitude, could be quite tricky for lower lying places.

The trend from the end of this week across the models is for cooler weather. And the trend for the week after (with lower confidence) is for cold weather. Continuing unsettled, offering the potential for fresh snowfall lower down.

Cold in Scotland, temperatures rising over next few days with snow coming through tomorrow (snow line perhaps around 1000m), warming further, then cooling steeply at the end of the week.
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 Poster: A snowHead
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rob@rar wrote:
December was pretty good in the Tarentaise, apart from one warm spell of a few days and then a few brutally cold days. November was also OK from what I remember, and my season got off to a splendid start in Tignes at the end of September/beginning of October.

Ageed, plus I skied at October half term in Montalbert Very Happy


Last edited by Poster: A snowHead on Mon 14-03-11 9:20; edited 1 time in total
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I see Chamonix Meteo is suggesting a tentative 1600m snowline for the precip arriving on Wednesday. Fingers crossed for you all still enjoying some turns that the only way that figure goes is downwards Very Happy
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queen bodecia wrote:
The word on the pistes in Austria last week was that any more snowfall now would be fairly useless, the ground is far too warm to hold it.


I am sorry, but I just don't buy this. Lower down I agree it won't help off piste, landing on warm ground, but higher up, where the cover is still deep, wide and cold any new snow would make a difference, and cold snow landing on cold snow on pistes is going to hang around. Take the Valluga in Arlberg, still -7 up there, despite being +2 in the village.

The normally very downbeat St Anton website concurs to snow coming later this week:

The beginning of next week will bring more settled conditions. The southerly foehn current will lose strength, and the clouds will disperse. The periods of sunny conditions will become longer. On Wednesday, the southerly foehn wind will gain strength and bring patches of thick clouds from the south. First showers are forecast for the evening. Dense overcast with some precipitation will probably determine the weather conditions on Thursday and on Friday. The snowfall line will sink distinctly below 1500 meters.
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Quote:

higher up, where the cover is still deep, wide and cold

I suppose a lot of Austrian pistes are on lower, essentially pasture, areas and the same is true of many French places, such as the Arly Valley, Megeve, Les Gets, Morzine. Depending on aspect (which is critical at the moment) there is a lot of bare ground at "pasture level" - as I said above, I have not seen as much bare ground in mid March before now and the coverage round here is worse than it usually is at the end of the season (I've only seen one end of season much worse than current cover). There are many reports and pictures of "white snakes" of pistes through bare ground, even fairly high up in the case of the 3 Valleys recently. I suppose those are the areas which will struggle to hold new snow - though a week or two of really cold weather could make a big difference and I have certainly not given up hope of a really good end to the season!

Is there much "wide, deep snow cover" in France? There's certainly none in the 3 Valleys, to judge by recent reports where pistes are reported as being threadbare and rocky right up to the top. The real off piste explorers have been finding some good pockets but for the ordinary mortal, they're few and far between, it would seem.

I wonder whether water supply problems might get in the way of extensive cannon use, even if it becomes cold enough?
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kitenski, yes that sounds like a rather sweeping statement to me. Where it may be true (and obviously not just in Austria) is that places where there is bare ground are less likely to hold snow as we are in spring. Fresh snow on existing base is completely different.


Last edited by Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do. on Mon 14-03-11 9:53; edited 1 time in total
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pam w, looks pretty wide to me, at 1800 in Courchevel, no brown around, the white snakes of piste seem to be much below this height in France from what I am reading??

http://www.skiplan.com/webcam/tania/boucblanc.jpg

and here's someshot quicky googled from Les Arcs

http://www.trinum.com//ibox/ftpcam/les-arcs-arcabulle.jpg


Last edited by You'll need to Register first of course. on Mon 14-03-11 10:31; edited 3 times in total
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Water is going to be a big problem this summer if it doesn't rain a lot now. There is already an issue with fires, a big one in the Ecrins the other day which burnt 10 hectares and one at St Columban I saw last week.

Snow cover is limited below 1800m on south facing slopes, 1400m on north faces but any snow that falls above these levels will be good. Pam is right, where this falls on bare ground it will just melt off again very quickly, it is too warm now.

For the last couple of months of the season I'm personally focused on resorts above 1700m but the snow cover cannot by any stretch of the imagination be called "deep" - 1m of snow on north faces at 2000m at this point in the season is poor.
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kitenski, thanks for the thread page destroying picture width! Puzzled

good point well made though snowHead
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nozawaonsen, do you reckon this is a 4 or a 5? Wink

How deep ? from Doug Bryce
http://vimeo.com/20999522

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kitenski wrote:
queen bodecia wrote:
The word on the pistes in Austria last week was that any more snowfall now would be fairly useless, the ground is far too warm to hold it.


I am sorry, but I just don't buy this. Lower down I agree it won't help off piste, landing on warm ground, but higher up, where the cover is still deep, wide and cold any new snow would make a difference, and cold snow landing on cold snow on pistes is going to hang around.


A friend of mine went to Soll in late-March during a poor season and most of the lowers pistes were poor and closed.

They had a massive dump and piste-patrollers had to get all the markers for these pistes they had just put away and put them back up. Nearly everything was opened again.

Was in Dorfgastein on Thursday and Friday and had some brilliant skiing. Hardly any bare patches. The artificial stuff does wonders in making piste last longer.
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topjack wrote:
kitenski wrote:
queen bodecia wrote:
The word on the pistes in Austria last week was that any more snowfall now would be fairly useless, the ground is far too warm to hold it.


I am sorry, but I just don't buy this. Lower down I agree it won't help off piste, landing on warm ground, but higher up, where the cover is still deep, wide and cold any new snow would make a difference, and cold snow landing on cold snow on pistes is going to hang around.


A friend of mine went to Soll in late-March during a poor season and most of the lowers pistes were poor and closed.

They had a massive dump and piste-patrollers had to get all the markers for these pistes they had just put away and put them back up. Nearly everything was opened again.

Was in Dorfgastein on Thursday and Friday and had some brilliant skiing. Hardly any bare patches. The artificial stuff does wonders in making piste last longer.


similarly, there was a lot of all of the Scottish ski areas that were completely void of snow a week ago.... look at them now Very Happy

slightly different climante, i know, but proves the point that you don't need a snowy base to hold new snow. just cold temps to keep it there that little longer Very Happy
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shoogly, topjack, problem is the ground is actually warm underneath so ain't going to last long where it has fallen on bare earth. Falling on existing snow is a different story............
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yes well, anyway, let's get back to discussing whether snow will actually fall and then it will become apparent if it settles or not...
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ok... Very Happy

forecast for 3 vallees area



looks like the models are mostly in agreement for the next few days and even a wee bit further out. Rain for a while with snow higher up then set to get colder with the odd snow shower thrown in.

Hope i'm reading this right. If it stays below 0ºC for as long as this looks like, is that long enough for the ground to freeze and new snow to settle?
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Much Better

That's a big spike, then a good run of cannon-friendly temps Smile
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 Poster: A snowHead
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ok from a ramping point of view read this

http://www.wepowder.com/weather

Quote:
on Tuesday Yvan will hit the Alps with a bang, again for the Southern Alps! While the snowline will be slightly higher this time (1500-1700m), the precipitation will be so intense that this will start falling rapidly. An orographic side-effect. While clouds full of moist hit the Alps, they start rising quickly and cool off rapidly. As cold air holds less moisture, snowfall is imminent. As a result, the air below cools, leading to a genuine snow bomb!!!


Quote:
there will be snow in the Northern Alps and yes, it will get colder. The European models are slightly more positive than others and if we follow them, we are looking at snow from Wednesday night up until Saturday, with a possibility of more snow on Sunday due to a Polar Low. We’ll keep you posted as the situation develops. In the meanwhile, let’s look a bit further into the future, as the NOA-index is ready to collapse. From highly positive (snow in Norway) to highly negative. And this opens the door for cold from the North. Is this an invitation for the 3rd Nordstau of the season around march 23rd? An opening for King Winter to make April unforgettable? While the high season is over and a lot of people are already preoccupied with spring, freeriders are getting their hopes up.


Quote:
Powder Advice
Be in the Southern Alps on Wednesday. Just be there, because it’s going to be DEEP. Anything is good, Sestriere, La Thuile, the eastern Queyras, Monte Rosa and all of those little secrets we’re not telling just yet. Then on Thursday go higher and ride until your legs are burnt. Because the Northfohn will start spoiling most of the fun soon afterwards...
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kitenski, I meant for the closed/bare pistes, not the pistes that already have snow, as discussed with a couple of the instructors in Kitzbuhel. They have pretty much given up on the hope of any off-piste this season, but for the pistes that still have snow, a bit more might freshen them up nicely.
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shoogly, I think that long lat is closer to Sestriere? Which is on the Italian side of the Alps.

roga, lovely, but I'm not sure you should really judge a season just after a huge snowfall anymore than you should after it hasn't snowed for a few weeks.
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My OH was in Sauze last week with her girly pals. They had good snow conditions with heaps of sunshine. Sat eve/ Sunday it snowed heavily.


Last edited by You need to Login to know who's really who. on Mon 14-03-11 21:07; edited 1 time in total
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the 12z is crazy - if that comes off then an epic next few weeks!!
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nozawaonsen wrote:
roga, lovely, but I'm not sure you should really judge a season just after a huge snowfall anymore than you should after it hasn't snowed for a few weeks.

Very true but we can judge yesterday/today Toofy Grin
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nozawaonsen wrote:
shoogly, I think that long lat is closer to Sestriere? Which is on the Italian side of the Alps.

roga, lovely, but I'm not sure you should really judge a season just after a huge snowfall anymore than you should after it hasn't snowed for a few weeks.


It's the one I use for Serre Chevalier too.
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yes, a bit far south for the 3 Valleys. Be nice if we could all appropriate that southern snowfall for ourselves! Snow to the south of us, snow to the north of us, but never snow right here!! wink
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To be honest I think it's a little far east and on the other side of the mountain range for Serre Chevalier too...
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nozawaonsen, true, but it is the closest that I can get with the GPS grabber. From my Iphone, I am at 45.97185, 6.51027 in Monetier-les-Bains.
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