 Poster: A snowHead
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@Whitegold, I wish I had your crystal ball.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| esaw1 wrote: |
| @Whitegold, I wish I had your crystal ball. |
A 100% accuracy rate this season, son.
Predicted dry Dec, windy early-Jan, and snowy mid-Jan 
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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I don't doubt it. That's why I wish I had your crystal ball.
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Much of this week looks very pleasant. Cool and sunny.
After that is unclear.
00z ECM keeps high pressure in charge into the second week, which would be settled but increasingly mild.
12z GFS is still toying with fresh snowfall in the north from around 27 January in far FI and closer in has snow in the southern Alps next Sunday and for the Pyrenees tomorrow and Saturday.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Lucky escape at Westendorf near Kitz. Five skiers buried one fully, none had transceivers, but fortunately the avalanche safety team were training nearby and the buried teenager was found safely by one of the Alsatians being put through her paces.
http://tirol.orf.at/news/stories/2820031/
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
12z GFS is still toying with fresh snowfall in the north from around 27 January in far FI and closer in has snow in the southern Alps next Sunday and for the Pyrenees tomorrow and Saturday. |
A few cms around the 23rd also (for E Alps anyway)?
http://www.meteociel.fr/tendances/40887/bad_gastein.htm
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looking at the recent model run its hard (for an amateur) like me to understand whats going on... few forcasts are toying with the idea of bringing back decent snow by the 24th / 25th to the west.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
Lucky escape at Westendorf near Kitz. Five skiers buried one fully, none had transceivers, but fortunately the avalanche safety team were training nearby and the buried teenager was found safely by one of the Alsatians being put through her paces.
http://tirol.orf.at/news/stories/2820031/ |
Lucky!!
German photographer was less lucky in Brand (Vorarlberg) yesterday 
http://vorarlberg.orf.at/news/stories/2819978/
I'm not sure ORF have all of it correct (differs slightly to the radio anyway - who reported the mountain rescue got to the avalanche area rather than the end of the debris), but roughly:
2 ice climbers + photographer on a shoot were caught by a powder avalanche that swept them all several hundred metres down the mountain. One climber managed to free himself then find/rescue his partner alive; they then both located/dug out the photographer under 80cm of snow who was sadly already dead. They called mountain rescue, who came came to the area but could not go all the way due to continuing avalanche danger. They spoke to the two climbers on the phone and directed them to safety - but both were caught in a secondary slide on the way out (but were ok). The photographer was recovered today I believe.
I was only about 30km away at the time and the blizzard was FIERCE all day. I assume they must have been experienced going climbing/shooting in those conditions - certainly after the avalanche they seemed to deal with the situation very effectively.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@whitegold
I'm impressed with your 100% accuracy so far this season, what does February offer us ?
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| ribblevalleyblue wrote: |
@whitegold
I'm impressed with your 100% accuracy so far this season, what does February offer us ? |
And how about March?
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| DJL wrote: |
| ribblevalleyblue wrote: |
@whitegold
I'm impressed with your 100% accuracy so far this season, what does February offer us ? |
And how about March? |
There will be no snow in July and it will be warm.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| FrediKanoute wrote: |
| Quote: |
@Jellybeans1000
Possible El Niño by April according to current modelling from NASA and UKMO.
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What does this mean? A dry March and warmer temp's? |
It's just food for some thought. It doesn't mean a whole lot for Europe except interactions with other teleconnections.
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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@neslot EC is showing some interesting stuff around that time. Long term update in the works.
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Poster: A snowHead
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| neslot wrote: |
| Is data this far out to be trusted? |
no
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| kitenski wrote: |
| neslot wrote: |
| Is data this far out to be trusted? |
no |
no's probably a bit simplistic of an answer. its obviously a long way out, but i'd think that with that much activity something is likely to happen, its just too early to agree when.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| eddiethebus wrote: |
| kitenski wrote: |
| neslot wrote: |
| Is data this far out to be trusted? |
no |
no's probably a bit simplistic of an answer. its obviously a long way out, but i'd think that with that much activity something is likely to happen, its just too early to agree when. |
By "that much activity" you mean "complete disagreement in the ensembles" 
Seriously it's too far out, it's an interesting event to keep an eye on and see if/how it develops IMHO.
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| kitenski wrote: |
| ...it's an interesting event to keep an eye on and see if/how it develops IMHO. |
That's the most you can ever hope for, that far out. Something to follow with interest to see how it develops, but not something to plan for or even pin hopes on.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| kitenski wrote: |
| neslot wrote: |
| Is data this far out to be trusted? |
no |
With full access to all long range resources, you can make a general prediction. Has some worth if you are smart about it, especially now we are into proper cold winter.
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All the same I would have thought the sheer repetitive number of large peaks on the Chamonix chart over a number of days is a bit unusual? Especially as several different perturbations are involved? Would it be ridiculous to say they are on to something but just can't pin when?
Over on TWO there is talk of an SSW event pending? Obviously the chat there is UK focussed so not sure what that means for the Alps?
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| kitenski wrote: |
By "that much activity" you mean "complete disagreement in the ensembles"
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Its not complete disagreement though is it. They are all saying to expect some precipitation, they only disagree on the amount and the exact timing.
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A quick question - weather systems coming in from the Atlantic, what we normally have (in the UK) have been lacking so far this winter in comparison to other years, but what impact do these have on the Alps in regard to snow fall, if any?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| iPope wrote: |
| A quick question - weather systems coming in from the Atlantic, what we normally have (in the UK) have been lacking so far this winter in comparison to other years, but what impact do these have on the Alps in regard to snow fall, if any? |
Lack of snow in the NW Alps
Last edited by Ski the Net with snowHeads  on Mon 16-01-17 14:18; edited 1 time in total
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| iPope wrote: |
| A quick question - weather systems coming in from the Atlantic, what we normally have (in the UK) have been lacking so far this winter in comparison to other years, but what impact do these have on the Alps in regard to snow fall, if any? |
Depends on how these weather systems affect the UK. If they move across the UK in a NW to SE direction, then they will usually affect the Alps (West and North). If they move across or affect the UK in a SW to NE direction then they usually (if at all) will not affect the Alps. Thats a very simplified explanation though. The problem this winter has been high pressure being dominant across Western Europe and thus blocking the weather systems from reaching the Alps. And as you have already mentioned, these weather systems have also not been affecting the Southern half of the UK very much
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Over the last few days model output for the last week of January has shown a tendency to bring back an increased influence of the Atlantic, certainly in comparison to the coming week which is dominated by high pressure.
So this week looks settled, sunny and generally quite cold in the Alps.
The following week looks more unsettled, possibly stormier and under the influence of the Atlantic milder. If that came to pass you would see snowfall for the northern side of the Alps more so in the west, but a higher freezing level.
On balance and based on the current output that feels about right to me, but at that range you can't talk about high confidence (and usually confidence and trust go together). Certainly at that distance I'd have a low level of confidence in terms of important details such as snowfall amounts, freezing level, wind and actually what day any system might hit and from what direction! But I'd certainly say it's worth keeping an eye on.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| But I'd certainly say it's worth keeping an eye on. |
Don't worry, we'll certainly be doing that.
Indeed, as is clear from this thread, some of us hardly do anything else.
(Back out to the mountains tomorrow - will be taking the extra thick long-johns and my woolly muffler)
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You know it makes sense.
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Haven't got on the snow yet this season, went to the sun instead over NY.
I'm due in Verbier 1st week in Feb, so keep the good news coming!!
P.s. don't worry about reliability/trust/etc all vastly overrated imho, I'm much more into happy optimistic weather forecasts tbh. Well I live in Ireland & you kind of have to have that attitude about the weather in fairness.
'Ahh shur, it will be grand'
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Thanks for the explanations in response to my question about Atlantic weather systems - as I suspected there are many variables to consider.
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@nozawaonsen, and that means?? (for the simple folk...like me)
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@Chris Brookes, potential for heavy snowfall for northern Alps. Particularly the western end. But. Also stormy, high winds and possibly above average snow line especially the western end.
Plenty of detail still to be sorted out though.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Thanks @nozawaonsen
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@nozawaonsen, In my case sometimes knowing a little is much worse than knowing nothing but the 850's look alarmingly high? Hope that doesn't mean rain below, say, 2000m?
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@robboj, possible but far too early to tell.
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Alps warming up, possible heavy rain. UK cooling down, possible heavy rain. How ironic would that be?
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ECM sees it quite a bit colder?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@nozawaonsen, you're undoubtedly right but my ability to be rational about FI never ceases to go out the window as soon as it turns adverse in such a way.
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Really strong winds and drifting snow forecast for Lake Geneva for the next two days from the icy Bise wind. Don't know if/how this will affect the resorts south of the lake
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