 Poster: A snowHead
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First week if jan in the PDS you will be fine.
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I've been in the PDS first week of January when it was blazing sunshine all week and the snow was very, very, thin. The Swiss Wall was more rock than snow. I noticed as I went down in the chairlift.  As kitenski says, it is simply not possible in early November to have the slightest idea what the weather or the snow will be like by the end of the year.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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The FI ensembles not looking too bad this morning (00z). Although the broad pattern looks similar, once we get past this weekend temperatures stretching into FI look about two to three degrees lower than they did over the last few days, with continuing indications of blocking high pressures in the fourth week of November with the potential to allow cooler weather to flow down.
The broad trend of temperatures looking slightly cooler in the west continues (interestingly there is not actually that much difference in the temperatures east and west, but at this time of year you would expect it to be a bit cooler in the east rather than the west) and the west continues to look slightly wetter.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Yesterday's 12z GFS seemed to mark a high water point (as it were) in the recent colder forecasts. The last few runs have got a less clear cut cold evolution, though cold it would still be. Northern blocking remains a feature in both GFS and ECM, though they seem to be chopping and changing over quite where it would occur (Greenland or Scandanavia). But regardless a welcome and colder change in pattern once we get through the mild weekend temperatures.
In terms of snow In the Alps, Monday going into Tuesday looking best and for now quite quiet though cold after that.
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nozawaonsen, I'd still take any run for the eastern alps from the last 24hrs over the midweek ones!
The last couple of days have really done for most of the snow from last weekend, although it seems to be sticking better on the pistes so hopefully something for the new snow to fall on 
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This evening sees the shift to a colder pattern continuing. The 06z and 12z GFS ensembles over much of the Alps see the operational shifting towards the same cooler track as the control run. Good.
Still warm for next day or so before the weather changes Monday/Tuesday, rain first then as temperatures quickly drop it should deliver snow (a reasonable amount?) to about 1200m-1400m. Then a little beneath seasonal average for the rest of the run.
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nozawaonsen,
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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nozawaonsen, 12-1400 will do for me for now. Here's hoping most Austrian middle stations and above will get a good covering which, if it finally manages to stay cold then they'll get the cannons going and get it well bashed and groomed to form a winter long base. If it works they'll be able to open by the end of the month?
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brian
brian
Guest
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brian
brian
Guest
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robboj, below 1000m on Tuesday.
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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06z continuing to look colder in the longer term, the UK in particular could get an early taste of winter and further snow in Scotland (and possibly elsewhere). The Alps remain broadly on average for the time of year (east west split as above), indeed the ensembles have been quietly drifting the near term temperatures a little upwards over the last three runs... But potentially could get a lot colder by the end of the month if the current operational runs came through.
robboj, I would imagine the current forecast would be good for Austria, as I mentioned it seems cooler for now over the next week in the west of the Alps, but if the snow coming tomorrow gets topped up and it remains cold enough to run the snow machines it should be ok for those Austeian resorts opening in November.
If the colder forecasts come off (still an if at this point), and precipitation gets mixed in it should be no problem at all!
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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This is I think (?) the closest GFS ensemble for the Aosta valley and Gressoney.
The tricky bit is whether the majority of the precipitation on Monday/Tuesday occurs before or after the temperature falls. To me the 06z ensemble run suggests that a lot of this will fall as rain up to 2000m, whereas in the rest of the Alps the cold drop comes, crucially, just a little earlier into the precipitation leading to snow at lower altitudes... Predicting exactly how this will play out locally is rather fraught and subject to change... Which might explain contradictory forecasts... Could easily change in either direction!
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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This all makes VERY interesting reading nozawaonsen, thanks for the daily updates 
Have to admit it's looking quite exciting!
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
I've put together a number of ensemble runs below so as to make the comparison easier (and the Cairngorms for comparison with Scotland). One thing that shows up is that although the temperatures are broadly the same the west is cooler for the time of year and the east warmer. By the end of the run, it looks possible this could switch, but either way there is the potential for cold. |
Thanks for doing that, it's very interesting to see this - the west at the moment, Glencoe in particular, seems to be getting a lot more snow and cold than usual although I'm basing that on my recollections of the last few seasons rather than any empirical data though. Certainly there's a load more snow up there than is usually the case at the moment, the webcams are showing the upper mountain gulleys loaded with snow. Shame the company has just started the hiring process for the winter season though so are not in a position to open yet.
Very intersting runs in general at the moment!
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brian
brian
Guest
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roga, our weather has been mostly dominated by the atlantic over the last few weeks, with a number of pretty meaty storms, but the good news has been that they've tended to track pretty far south. Another example is on its way now:
If the centre of that low was up around Iceland, which is pretty typical, then the evil warm sector to the SW of Ireland, and its dastardly preceding warm front of heavy rain, would be heading for the Highlands. Luckily, we've been staying out of that mild yuckiness and catching snow laden occluded fronts instead. This early in the season, with the sea still relatively warm, they can be a bit hit and miss but we seem to be getting more hit than miss so far.
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brian
brian
Guest
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GFS 12z FI is an Austrian dream, and bone-chillingly cold. 
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brian, Not half! If i'm reading that right it shows the cold arriving from around the 23rd/24th, by the 27th the 850's for noon are showing -16/-18 in Austria 
That is truly a beast from the east!
Will probably downgrade tonight but as long as the cold trend sticks I'm happy
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brian
brian
Guest
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ECM FI is an absolute stonker for Scotland, E'ly backing NE'ly with plenty of snow potential, especially for Gorm/Shee/Lecht.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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on the web cams it looks like in the Monterosa region, the higher slopes have been plastered where as lower down 1600m etc.. it seems to have well and truly pissed it down! 
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milnerhome, are we going to get a weekend up is Scotland this year mate?
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You know it makes sense.
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replied on the other thread
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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brian, thanks for all that info.
Forgive my ignorance but what's the ECM FI and where can I see it?
Bit of a novice at this weather model watching thing but when it's as tantalising as it is at the moment I have to admit it's rather addictive!
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Poster: A snowHead
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milnerhome, it was turning to snow a bit late for webcams - might look better in the morning. chin up!
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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18z ensembles still pressing the case for a deep cold period in the Alps in FI from about next Wednesday/Thursday.
In fact I'd swear the operational run is exactly the same as it was six hours ago, except the control and the rest of the ensembles are closer to it. Cold.
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The top slopes got about 25cm, lower down the rain turned too snow and seems too have put a few cm's on the really low slopes
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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nozawaonsen, thanks for the explanation, there's a lot I need to get my head round!
Strikes me though that at the moment the runs are coalescing around more cold towards the end of the month which can't be a bad thing, although if there's one thing I've learmt it's that it can change and often does but with everything pointing in the same direction I guess it's more about how cold it'll be rather than whether it'll happen ... or am I deluding myself?!
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This morning continues the pattern for much colder weather in the Alps in about a week's time. Before then there is a slightly milder period which should also see further snow especially in the south (freezing level 1600-1800m?) around Sunday/Monday. Over the same time period it looks a little milder (freezing level 1800m-2100m?) in Austria also with less rain/snow.
And after that it looks cold (and for now- quite dry).
roga, as ever nothing is certain, but I doubt you would see a more consistent pattern across all the models pointing in one direction.
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Looking at some webcams it snowed down to at least 1100m in the Beaufortain overnight. But it's warmish this morning - it won't last two minutes at that altitude, as you'd expect in mid November, but the trends look good.
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Lunchtime (06z) GFS run looks like it might be sizing up a big green spanner to throw in the works...
The operational run switches to a much warmer trend taking things above average rather than below. It isn't hugely well supported, the control remains well into the cold territory with the average just behind it. So will all this evening's ensembles switch to the mild track or keep the faith?
In the meantime the warmer weather at the weekend would undo much of the snow at lower levels that fell overnight...
Tricky.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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nozawaonsen, wet heavy snow/rain here in Munich (Wessling actually by the DLR Oberpfaffenhofen) really horrible weather but it does not seem to be snowing on the mountains to the east (like the one above my village)
Looks like Western Tirol and Vorarlberg are getting some supplies and Kärnten has an extreme weather warning posted.
Very humid for the temperature and the wind is driving it through you like a knife!
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