 Poster: A snowHead
|
|
Samerberg Sue, surely recent forecasts mean that Arlberg will have a nice start to the season with snow from 2200m+? Isn't it optimistic to expect good snow to the valley before mid-December at least?
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
|
Ricklovesthepowder, looks to me from that forecast like the rain on Thursday could wash away much of the snow that falls? But it all depends what happens to the freezing height after midweek. The last few days have seen various models bringing in a deep depression towards Scotland at the end of the week, hence the wind and rain. The wind speeds in particular look like they could create problems for walking. Keep an eye on how the low pressure coming in on Thursday/Friday develops!
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
|
nozawaonsen, Could you keep me updated with your predictions for this area? The freezing levels are just above the summits for this location, but due to the excessive wind for that location the temp and windchill will be below freezing all week. I think that there still could be some on the summits due to this. Cheers for your help mate
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
brian
brian
Guest
|
Ricklovesthepowder, wind chill is just how it feels to you. Unfortunately snow isn't so easily fooled. 
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
really, thanks i honestly didnt know that. So it has no effect on the temp what so ever?
|
|
|
|
|
|
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
|
|
Ricklovesthepowder, that's why, even when it's cold, and you're driving your car at 70 mph, the "wind chill" doesn't turn the rain on the windscreen to sheets of ice. Just as well, really.
|
|
|
|
|
|
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
|
pam w, ok smarty pants, never thought of it that way really 
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Snowing in Alps and Scotland, and windy in parts of the UK too apparently...
After the current snowfall it looks like there will be intermittent snow showers, but a few slightly unreliable spikes to one side, nothing too sensational. This mornings 00z continues the trend os seeing things warm up quite rapidly at the weekend with FLs stretching to 3000m+ at times  Obviously this won't do much to help the snow that falls this week... Frankly I think that's just inconsiderate...
On the positive side 00z does start to build a consensus tightening the length of the warm spell and confining it to the weekend with cooler temperatures and freezing levels of around 1500m once more from Monday 15th!
For those walking in Scotland on Friday, you wil be accompanied by a low pressure system which is passing over the top of Scotland at the same time. Looks like it comes in quite tight, but loosens up a little as it arrives...
|
|
|
|
|
|
brian
brian
Guest
|
|
This morning's GFS (and ECM v similar to my eye) showing an absolute deluge on Friday. Plenty of snow up high if it comes off but snowline might be 2500m+.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
|
|
|
|
Poster: A snowHead
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
So the weather is up and down like the proverbial ladies drawers, with snow going down, then rain and foen killing it again. Should we start getting pessimistic yet? By when do we need a decent amount to stick around in order to have a base for the season? Or are we in for a season of going up and down the only slopes equipped with cannons?
fyi I have a 17-22nd December booked in Schladming, and looking to book a week early/mid Jan in Val d'Isere, and looking for another week late March.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
|
Dr John, December trips to low lying Austrian resorts booked well in advance and before snow has fallen are the preserve of the extremely optimisitic
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
|
red 27, you're not helping
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
|
Dr John, you'll be fine. Schladming only needs 20-30cm of snow to open iirc.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
|
Timmaah, yeah, I'm not too worried about Schladming, staying at a mates place so it's nice and cheap anyway. It was more generally I was thinking about, probably nothing to worry about, but was wondering what the wise and wrinkled SH contingent thought.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dr John, I wouldn't be too worried. Like others have said there is still plenty of time, Autumn often sees temperatures rising and falling quite rapidly. Some years it can mean you get a great early spell, some years not. I don't think based on what we've seen so far this season is looking like it is going to have amazing snow in November (like there was a few years ago in Austria in mid November!) though that could change quickly and how things might unfold in the second half of the month isn't clear yet.
The relatively volatile temperature in November also mean it could shift pattern fairly quickly (a mild end of November and early December last year was followed by a very cold mid December). A few days of heavy snow in the last week of the month could really set things up! If we were still in this sort of pattern with no base forming in December I might be a bit more anxious (not least as I'm planning to be skiing then!) but even then it is no real indicator of how things might look later in the season! 
12z GFS started to reel in the more extreme operational rainy runs, though it also seemed to slightly extend the subsequent mild spell (looking to me slightly warmer and wetter in the western alps). Still looks tricky and the rain that does come, and the warm temperatures, aren't going to help, except in the higher parts of the Alps. Some signs this evening that temperature might then fall again from around middle of next week (like hedley's crystal ball suggested!) and perhaps be accompanied by some precipitation. But that's off in the distance! The next few ensembles may give more of a steer...
Looking pretty wild in Scotland on Thursday night with another low coming in. Still not clear whether it will bring a lot of rain or more snow.
[edit: 18z follows a similar pattern to 12z, if anything it's a slightly better run, temperatures rise at the weekend as some rain comes in snowing above around 2000 to 2500m. It looks like there will be more precipitation in the west and also slightly warmer temperatures over the weekend (possibly freezing levels of 3000m+). Temperatures look like they should fall back to around seasonal average on Monday, possibly a little lower. It looks like there is a possible further drop in temperatures around 19th/20th November. It looks fairly unsettled next week, but difficult to see any real pattern at this stage, although again it looks for now like there would be more precipitation in the west rather than the east].
|
|
|
|
|
|
brian
brian
Guest
|
| nozawaonsen wrote: |
Looking pretty wild in Scotland on Thursday night with another low coming in. Still not clear whether it will bring a lot of rain or more snow.
|
At the moment, looks like snow at first, turning to rain up to maybe 1000m, then snow showers to lower levels. I think the rain will largely wipe out the lower level snow.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
00z bridges things so instead of having a dip back to average temperatures on or around 15th November it holds on to warmer temperatures for almost a week, all through to 19 November before going below average.
This run might make me start to think about getting a little bit anxious if I was hoping to open around 26 November...
Will be interesting to see whether later ensembles go with this.
|
|
|
|
|
|
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
|
|
Let's say this base sticks despite the rain, would that not create a very avalanche-prone base? Due to the constant snow, thawing, snow, rain, snow?
|
|
|
|
|
|
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
|
Timmaah, difficult to say but in general, I'd prefer a snowpack that has been through a bit of freeze-thaw action to a bit of early snowfall followed by cold dry spell
freeze thaw snow will usually be pretty solid of itself but if it freezes hard and then you get cold snow falling on top you have an ideal sliding layer. if you get wet snow turning to cold snow, it can bond pretty well.
if you have a thin layer then cold temps, that can set up a layer of depth hoar which can create instabilities which last until spring
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Arno, I'd agree as I reckon the cycle would consolidate the snow pack, but I think you'd want a bit more pack to consolidate in the first place.
I'd add that my comment about being concerned was only given the short timings between now and November 26. By this weekend that's only two weeks off and if a week of that was above average then it would need quite a good week to bring things back on track. So you'd want that week to be cold and bring some snow. Which in the second half of November is very possible. You're just running a bit short on time...
|
|
|
|
|
|
You know it makes sense.
|
Not much to like in the 06z GFS ensembles that I can see. The rather extreme rainy operational ensembles are back for the western alps on Friday having been missing for a few runs. Along with the temperature rise over the weekend. For now the ensembles seem to see a gradual week long drop in temperatures rather than any sudden dip, but there are various options and how this will play out will become clearer in the next few days.
After Friday's rain/snow at heights the third week of November looks warm and dry, certainly for the first half - this in slight contrast to some of last night's ensembles which saw a slightly cooler and wetter second half of the week...
|
|
|
|
|
|
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
|
|
|
|
Poster: A snowHead
|
|
very wet in pds area this next week it seems
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
|
if only the area was another 500 metres higher,and it would be "dump" time shame what a waste of water!!!!
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
|
First week if jan in the PDS you will be fine.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Dr John wrote: |
So the weather is up and down like the proverbial ladies drawers, with snow going down, then rain and foen killing it again. Should we start getting pessimistic yet? By when do we need a decent amount to stick around in order to have a base for the season? Or are we in for a season of going up and down the only slopes equipped with cannons?
fyi I have a 17-22nd December booked in Schladming, and looking to book a week early/mid Jan in Val d'Isere, and looking for another week late March. |
still over a month away.. and if its rubbish you can drive up to obertauern first thing in the morning.. or get a cab if you want to get on it..
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Ricklovesthepowder wrote: |
| First week if jan in the PDS you will be fine. |
Not just me.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
I really would not be especially concerned about what this current spell of weather means for January or even December, at this stage. It can all shift around very quickly. Last year being a good example where a mild November rolled into a very cold mid December.
I would however be looking at the forecasts a little nervously if I was looking to open a resort for the end of November. The 06z ensembles would not do much to reassure me with what looks like an extended mild and dry spell. To cheer myself up I would look at the 06z operational run and try and persuade myself it was an outlier indicarting a change of pattern and a colder trend from around 20 November
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
phillip33, I have been in Val D'Isere where it rained to the top, and also been in PdS before Xmas where it dumped loads of fresh snow.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FAQ
(obviously so far out as to be completely unreliable... hey, ho... )
