 Poster: A snowHead
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
@jamz0770, that particular chart is for GFS. The big US model. It's good, but like all it starts to suffer beyond seven days (see page one, post one). The data for GFS is free to use so it gets used by the vast majority of internet based forecasts (such as snowforecsst.com). Most of these simply apply the data from the operational or deterministic run. Doing this beyond five to seven days will start to skew the reliability of any forecast because the ensembles are really meant to be used in that way, but because it's free to use people tend to use it.
Meteociel itself carries charts for all major weather models. |
Thanks for the response, very interesting. I will temper my expectations for anything more than 5 days out then. Its just so painful hearing of all the snow the east and north is getting when you are booked for the South West!
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@nozawaonsen, Thanks - a slight relief if the brief overview you've recently provided is anything to go by.
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@jamz0770, its the GFS data.
As for reliability it's as good as anything else, so ok out to 3 days. Beyond that, treat the forecast as one possibility amongst many. No forecast can be better than that really as weather is a chaotic system.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@harrymac, I think the only issue with snow-forecast is when folk get really excited about a "HUGE" dump it predicts 2 weeks into the future that doesn't materialise and they then slag it off as being unreliable.
All people seem to be saying is take that kind of longer term prediction with a massive pinch of salt (regardless of the site it comes from)
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[quote="kitenski"]@harrymac, I think the only issue with snow-forecast is when folk get really excited about a "HUGE" dump it predicts 2 weeks into the future that doesn't materialise and they then slag it off as being unreliable.
This.
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| harrymac wrote: |
@nozawaonsen, Im on here every day have been for a long time, dont post but read and listen etc and its observations I have picked up on from my many seasons. There is no finger pointing but just a generalisation on what I see. I am no weather expert but certainly there is often a tense atmosphere on here from how posts are and posters are sometimes made to feel stupid for just writing their opinions? I just think it really needs to lighten up and be for fun. If someone post that its going to dump 100cm when in fact it maybe 15cm does that matter?!! Lets just be grateful that we are alive and well as a very good friend of mine who I have skied with for all of these years will miss year as he battles C. lets just enjoy!  |
I have to say, I disagree. Like you, I've been reading this thread often, and learning a lot, but post infrequently. In general, I'd say the SHs who take the lead on here are usually balanced in their approach, and not dismissive of those (like me) with less knowledge.
And it does matter if 100cm is posted instead of a more realistic 15cm. For a start, it's going to have an effect on where I go after I've flown to Geneva a week tomorrow.
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| Weathercam wrote: |
@harrymac, agreed - for many on here it's all about squiggly lines and if you dare look at anything that has a more simple user interface then you are deemed to be less intelligent about meteo matters  |
As much as it pains me....I agree😂😂
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| MCHP wrote: |
| Weathercam wrote: |
| @harrymac, agreed - for many on here it's all about squiggly lines and if you dare look at anything that has a more simple user interface then you are deemed to be less intelligent about meteo matters |
As much as it pains me....I agree😂😂 |
I don't think the user bashing is limited to this thread, i'd go as far as to say that this thread is one of the friendliest. I've used many forums over the years but unfortunately snowheads is one of the most aggressive at times.
i'm sure i'm not the only user at times who hasn't bothered to post an opinion on a subject simply because you know it will be quickly followed by a tirade of abuse.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| Quote: |
you know it will be quickly followed by a tirade of abuse.
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what absolute rubbish !!!
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Heading to Sella Ronda at the end of January...is there anything out there which remotely suggests that there might be faintest hope of a few mm of snow between now and the end of time? It looks drier than a you know what!... 
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| eddiethebus wrote: |
| I don't think the user bashing is limited to this thread, i'd go as far as to say that this thread is one of the friendliest. I've used many forums over the years but unfortunately snowheads is one of the most aggressive at times. |
Sorry for the thread hijack, but i felt this was worth saying. I've only been on SH for a couple of years and my experience has been the exact opposite. Like all forums there's the usual willy waving etc... but I've haven't seen anything excessive here.
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You know it makes sense.
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Out of interest are there any sites that collates the 'predictions' of snow fall from snow websites and then compares that to the actual falls that occur? In other words shows site x is good at predicting 3 days in advance, but not good over one week, whereas site y works well up to a week in advance, but only for the US (or any other ski area)
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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@mheadbee, Your a prime example The one thing that does seem to get up the noses of the experts on here is calling the charts "wigglies" as we are not at school anymore and when people ask for a forecast for four weeks time. Whenever I read that I cringe and think, wait for it....
My point exactly.......a true sarcastic remark proving my point exactly. I rest my case.
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Poster: A snowHead
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Can we all take a deep breath and get back to weather forecasting?
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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It's not the "weather models they follow" it is their software which picks one of several possible outcomes and gives no indication of reliability. Thanks to this thread over many years I have learnt a lot, coupled with looking out the window over 13 seasons.
No problem if folk choose to eschew the uncertainties of chaotic weather systems and choose a simple version but a bit much if, when that proves unreliable, they rail against "forecasters" or even, absurdly, claim that forecasts were better in the olden days.
Now - a spot of empirical data - a level 5" at 1550m outside my apartment. More than I thought, and I must have been asleep when the plough came up our cul de sac. 
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And if you think there are some tart exchanges on this thread you should have been here in the days of the late, great and lamented Carled.
Nozawaonson is a model of restraint and civility!
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@harrymac, at the end of the day when you do get the snow, the differences in accumulation can be amazing just within 5-10km and no model can get close to predicting that at a local level.
I know I'm a scratched record on this and can hear poor old Noza groaning, but it's the local factors of Cols, ridges etc that will actually determine if people are frustrated with the likes of SnowForecast not delivering.
It's only since I've been living full time out in the mountains (fourth full season) that I've come to understand why the locals and experienced professionals (guides etc) tend to have a "wait and see shrug" when it comes to discussing forecasts, though my interest is biased towards off piste conditions.
That said still interesting to see/guess when the white stuff might be coming and if a road trip is necessary to chase it down.
But was speaking to a "guide" neighbour last night who has many South American clients and he is getting worried about what to do week after next when he has some very good skiers arriving from Argentina, did suggest Austria and he just rolled his eyes
Last edited by Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do. on Thu 5-01-17 12:41; edited 1 time in total
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I just know my current clients are going to complain about the snowing, the clouds and the wind as they leave on Saturday...
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Currently snowing in Zurich and there's a carpet of white. On the train to Klosters  . It bodes well!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@harrymac, totally disagree with your sentiments.
This is my go to, first stop website/ thread in trying to determine upcoming and current weather/ snow conditons in the Alps. I think the opinions are generally diverse and fair. To be honest - what's wrong with a bit of sarcasm from time to time. If someone's talking b%#*^%ks, they should expect to taken to task a little. After all we're British.... mostly 
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Internet tends to get fractious and aggressive, or seem so when words are spoken without intonation. But like many others I've learned a huge amount from this thread and if you're willing to park your ego and sensitivities so will others. I think analysis of weather requires a cold logical approach - not necessarily so much room for over indulging being sensitive to other people. Plus having posters come on (myself included) asking questions that have been asked and answered 33 times previously in the thread in a given season cannot increase the chances of being deferential and overly sensitive to others.
Internet - serious business! Almost as serious as ski addiction!
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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javascript:emoticon('@Penzanceopinion, ') +1
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Dissatisfaction with simplified forecasts is not just down to local effects but I do agree that local variations can be hugely significant.
If just one run of a model (a la Snow Forecast) was a sound basis for forecasting why would they bother to model the impact of multiple slight variations? And sometimes come up with hugely different outcomes even a few days ahead.
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| Penzanceopinion wrote: |
@harrymac, totally disagree with your sentiments.
This is my go to, first stop website/ thread in trying to determine upcoming and current weather/ snow conditons in the Alps. I think the opinions are generally diverse and fair. To be honest - what's wrong with a bit of sarcasm from time to time. If someone's talking b%#*^%ks, they should expect to taken to task a little. After all we're British.... mostly |
+1
They're Teddy bears on this thread.
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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I'm very much hoping for an upgrade on the current forecast for Alpe D'Huez. Leave Sat and it's looking really poor on the various webcams. Frustrating as the snow is bucketing down across the rest of the Europe (it feels like ). I'm clinging on to the fact I've seen about half a dozen downgrades of promising forecasts in the last few weeks, so surely it's due the reverse and it'll be hammering down when I arrive due to a last minute switch in something up there..
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Poster: A snowHead
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A general question for the weather experts here -
What sort of changes in the weather patterns are needed for snow to come to the Dolomites? Obviously more southerly winds but is there anything that precedes that?
I guess those with an interest in the south western alps have similar questions
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Who said it was difficult to forecast exact snow depths? That Ski World forecast is showing 83.9cms for La Plagne between 17 and 25 Jan. Not 83cms, not 84 cms but 83.9! Idiots.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| Ghanny wrote: |
| Who said it was difficult to forecast exact snow depths? That Ski World forecast is showing 83.9cms for La Plagne between 17 and 25 Jan. Not 83cms, not 84 cms but 83.9! Idiots. |
Didn't you know that precision is the same thing as accuracy?
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You chumps need to stop bickering and whining.
Snow is coming.
The East this week. The West next week.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| shiva_71 wrote: |
| Heading to Sella Ronda at the end of January...is there anything out there which remotely suggests that there might be faintest hope of a few mm of snow between now and the end of time? It looks drier than a you know what!... |
Based on the latest GFS run, possibility of light snow on the 10th/11th. Just have to keep an eye in the next few days whether this changes or not. Anything past the 11th, I wouldnt even attempt to make a guess at.
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@rutlandchris if you are prepared not to ski over in Auris and except that the runs to resort maybe don't look pretty but are skiable then you should still have a good time.
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@howiet Yes that's very much going to be my approach. I'm sure of the higher up areas will be OK. I don't ski off-piste anyway so that doesn't matter.
To be honest, I dodged a bullet as nearly booked accommodation in Auris - thank god I didn't
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Harrymac, totally agree with your sentiment. I am also an avid reader, and post once a week at most. It must be annoying though if you have a good meteorological knowledge, and someone says something a bit daft! A few corrections are then in order. We should however always be as polite on the site as if everyone was sat around a table having a beer. Also it is sadly the case that unless you are very good, the written word never carries the meaningful nuances of conversation in tone and pitch. Hence I'm sure a few peoples scribings can be misinterpreted.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| agw wrote: |
A general question for the weather experts here -
What sort of changes in the weather patterns are needed for snow to come to the Dolomites? Obviously more southerly winds but is there anything that precedes that?
I guess those with an interest in the south western alps have similar questions |
Areas of high pressure to the South or SOuth West of the UK are going to be the biggest stumbling block for snow to come to the Dolomites. Ideally you need pressure to start falling across Iberia and low pressure systems to start forming in the Western mediteranean. If these then start tracking SW to NE towards Northern Italy then they should eventually start pushing weather fronts into the Dolomites. Thats just a very simplified explanation. See below link for "Genoa Low" for further explanation.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genoa_low
Biggest problem right now and for the upcoming week or so, is that high pressure across Southern France/Iberia/Pyrenees is stopping the moist atlantic air getting into the West Mediterannean.
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@harrymac, The problem is, some people post their opinion as fact. The experts on here sometimes seem like they are putting people down but I don't see it like that. the experts will say things like you can't reliably forecast past 3-5 days or for specific amounts of snowfall. That isn't them trying to put people down, it's science fact.
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FAQ
