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The All New 16/17 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
HeidiAmsterdam wrote:
Sat in Reno, NV at the mo - so much snow, so much weather, resorts are completely closed or partially closed. Dangerous driving conditions. I wanted snow, but not THIS much


Sometimes too much of a good thing... Looks like the wind, and the freezing levels are all over the place for Tahoe. More coming later in the week too. Such polar opposites with Europe and the snow fall for the USA West Coast.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Mammoth are reporting 50", yes, 50 inches of fresh snow overnight. That's amazing!
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
snowing hard in Mürren now Wink
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Anyone currently in La Plagne who can report on conditions pls? From what I can make out from my v basic knowledge it doesn't look like La Plagne is gonna get much from this storm, is this right? Going on the 15th......
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Few CM's and counting here in Chatel (PdS France). We will take all we can get at the moment. I have been skiing good pistes and had lots of happy clients over Xmas and NY, but real natural snow is more than welcome! We have had great pistes in the morning on the fresh artificial snow. By 11am most days we have been on some firm ice with stones in places, admittedly its not very rocky at all, I have even dared to ski on my brand new skis on the odd occasion which is saying something. It is a shame this has come so late, hopefully more the follow.
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Snowing hard in Wengen but very windy
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Anyone currently in La Plagne who can report on conditions pls? From what I can make out from my v basic knowledge it doesn't look like La Plagne is gonna get much from this storm, is this right? Going on the 15th......
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Snowing in Les Saisies - because I didn't put my car in the garage. rolling eyes
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Snowing in Chamonix at present, lightly but it's better than nothing!
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Yes, light snow in the Lake Geneva area too
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Ricklovesthepowder wrote:
Mammoth are reporting 50", yes, 50 inches of fresh snow overnight. That's amazing!


A lot of moisture in that AR coming off the Pacific. Up to 7 inches of precip. which equals lots and lots of snow.

http://www.mammothmountain.com/winter/mountain-information/mountain-information/storm-tracker
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
In Chatel and it is snowing lightly and has been since about 19.00, would say about 4cm has settled. May not make a huge amount of difference to the off piste, will however freshen up the pistes that were much better than we expected in PLJ today. Forecast over next week, although not set in stone, looks like moving away from the annoying high at least for a bit.....
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@Crispyapplepie, I'm in Tignes 20km away as the 'oiseau' flies, it is snowing lightly and blowing a gale, but you are right we are not expecting much in the next 2 days. As for next week it is looking unsettled but the forecast is highly uncertain. Meteo France have issued a confidence level of 1 out of 5 for Sundays forecast, so to be honest its a lottery, but I would say La Plagne will have more snow by the 15th than it has now.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Hi. Any charts for Selva Val Gardena please? I have found wettercentral but do not know how to put the coordinates in 😳

We are travelling out on the 14th and I know the pistes are open and apparently in good condition but snow to cover some of the mountain would be great!

Thanks for your help
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Any news for any snow for St martin in the 3 valleys?
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@darbyrw@rob.m, Search it on Ventusky
https://www.ventusky.com
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
It's been snowing well at Snowmass all day. Windhold up top.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?


This is how 18z GFS sees it out to 12 January now. Although the numbers shouldn't be taken particularly seriously the pattern it shows emphasizes the contrast between the northern side of the Alps and the southern side which continues to look very dry for the next week. Back on the north side it is still the eastern end and Austria in particular that looks likely to see the most snowfall (though some of that is of course linked to the current storm). That said there is still time for this to shift.
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Currently in La Plagne, piste conditions very icy at the moment as well as very crowded. Lots of bare patches on the lower pistes above 2000m but we desperately need some snow to freshen things up. Had only a very light dusting in plagne centre tonight but hoping for some more overnight or it's another day of limited skiing. Sorry it's not more positive news but keeping everything crossed for tomorrow am.
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@Jellybeans1000, will do. Thanks
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You usually need a storm from the South to give widespread and good snow to the Southern Alps.
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I have 3 weeks in la trois vallees > val d'isere > chamonix from Jan 20 to Feb 10, will be my first ski trip to Europe after 5 years of Japan.

The current conditions are looking pretty sad, and the forecast (from what i can gather) not much better. I had a look at ventusky.com but can you really trust the data? Precipitation seems to be all over the place. Are there any long range forecasters here that can see anything ~10+ days out for this region of the alps?
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
darbyrw wrote:
Hi. Any charts for Selva Val Gardena please? I have found wettercentral but do not know how to put the coordinates in 😳

We are travelling out on the 14th and I know the pistes are open and apparently in good condition but snow to cover some of the mountain would be great!

Thanks for your help


Looks like there may be a dusting over the next 24hrs.

An approximate GFS chart location for the Dolomites...

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=46.5&lon=11.9

Looking further ahead there have been indications of more unsettled weather through the middle third of Jan, but impossible to state with any certainty yet and it does seem to be dialling back.

Check out the Dolomites thread for more links & info...

http://snowheads.com/ski-forum/viewtopic.php?t=126808&start=160

Though the weather gurus hang around on this thread interpreting the long-term outlook.
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@neslot, 13-15 January looks like light snow for Chamonix, but 16-18 looks heavier. This is from latest EPS Control run and Spag, etc.

Ventusky only displays GFS and GEM output, exactly like Meteociel and Wetterzentrale's output quality. Except for Physics, the chart shouldn't be from a human.

If you are really suspicious of Ventusky, there is also Windytv which has GFS, EC and NAM
https://www.windytv.com/?39.690,-105.007,6
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@rob.m, looking out of the window in Les Menuires, it looks like one or two cm has fallen on the road, the snowplough has just been by. The Biolley run to St Martin is skiable albeit very hard on the last pitch before the tunnel under the road.
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A dusting in Geneva. Looks like a heavy dusting in Chamonix.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.

There's a surprise.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Middle of next week 11-13 looks like it could bring further snow to the northern Alps. Still looks pretty dry on the south side.

Winds dropping in east tomorrow, temperatures too.

Some ensembles...



The Arlberg



Chamonix



Cairngorm



Sestriere



Eastern Pyrenees



Aosta valley

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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.

http://youtube.com/v/Vet6AHmq3_s

If you are lucky enough to be heading up to the slopes in parts of Austria once the storm passes... Remember... Think!

Here's some extracts from the LWD Salzburg report.

Snowdrift problem: practice restraint!

"Inhospitable conditions: bitter cold, storm, poor visibility."

"Exposed terrain utterly windblown."

"Avalanche Danger

Caution, the conditions are unfriendly, danger of slab avalanches CONSIDERABLE (3) widespread except in Lungau Nockberge, where it is LOW (1). The snowstorm has created drifts in all aspects and is continuing to do so. These bonded layers can be triggered with relative ease and are nearly impossible to recognize. In steep terrain, the weight of one sole person is sufficient to trigger them. Most danger zones are in gullies and behind terrain edges in steep forest-edge zones and distant from ridgelines and forests. Slab fractures of 30 to 100 cm are possible, even fractures all the way down to the ground."

"Over the last 24 hours there has been 30-60 cm of snowfall amidst strong W/NW winds, since yesterday evening amidst powerful gusts and significantly dropping temperatures an additional 20-40 cm."

"Repeated bouts of snowfall all day long today in the form of heavy showers, less intense this afternoon, with intermissions. By midnight, the snowfall will terminate. New fallen snow: an additional 20-40 cm, excluding Nockberge. Poor visibility. Very strong northerly winds, in exposed terrain at storm strength."
[url][/url]
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Are the three valleys western alps, and generally central as opposed to North or South?! A similar question was asked earlier but i'm struggling to dissect the answer! TIA.

PS: Really enjoy keeping up to speed with this thread - thanks to everyone who contributes!
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@Liam, northern side of the Alps, western end.
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For the last 14 years I have skied every winter, sometimes fortunate enough to get in 3 trips, sometimes 2 but always 1. I have followed snowforecast.com preceding every 1 of these and it has always been correct. Sure it go's a bit wild on the quantities, that's fine with me I like big numbers Smile , and sure it changes as per the charts its based on but its never failed me.

That's why it always makes me annoyed when certain posters on here always give it a slating. Its a fantastic site, easy to use, full of features charts maps and a ton of other info, and it must take a huge effort to keep this operational. It also gives decent reliability, bearing in mind how difficult it is to predict weather, especially in the mountains...!! Yet here we are on here heavily criticizing it from our desk's laptops smart phones or whatever when it actual fact the site owners are pretty wealthy by all accounts...?!! They must be doing something correct....!

Another point I must air is how certain posters take great delight in being rather sarcastic and rude to other poster's posts which I always find pretty pointless and a little sad.

The reason we come on here is for our love of snow and the weather behind it. Its always a subjective and opinionated topic and some posters are new etc. All they look for is hope....!! Smile Smile Smile Smile
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@harrymac, Agreed!
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@harrymac, +1
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@harrymac, not quite sure where that came from?
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Drammeister wrote:
This links to a map to give you wiggles for wherever you click.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs.php?carte=1


Very useful - Which model(s) does it use? Is it reliable?
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@harrymac, agreed - for many on here it's all about squiggly lines and if you dare look at anything that has a more simple user interface then you are deemed to be less intelligent about meteo matters rolling eyes
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@jamz0770, that particular chart is for GFS. The big US model. It's good, but like all it starts to suffer beyond seven days (see page one, post one). The data for GFS is free to use so it gets used by the vast majority of internet based forecasts (such as snowforecsst.com). Most of these simply apply the data from the operational or deterministic run. Doing this beyond five to seven days will start to skew the reliability of any forecast because the ensembles are really meant to be used in that way, but because it's free to use people tend to use it.

Meteociel itself carries charts for all major weather models.
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@Weathercam, that's not true at all and I'm disappointed you say that. I try as patiently as possible to explain the advantages and disadvantages of different tools. Certainly some websites are easy to use but in apparently simpifying a complex problem they give false confidence over the solution.
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@nozawaonsen, Im on here every day have been for a long time, dont post but read and listen etc and its observations I have picked up on from my many seasons. There is no finger pointing but just a generalisation on what I see. I am no weather expert but certainly there is often a tense atmosphere on here from how posts are and posters are sometimes made to feel stupid for just writing their opinions? I just think it really needs to lighten up and be for fun. If someone post that its going to dump 100cm when in fact it maybe 15cm does that matter?!! Lets just be grateful that we are alive and well as a very good friend of mine who I have skied with for all of these years will miss year as he battles C. lets just enjoy! Smile
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