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The All New 16/17 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@Charliegolf, both are at the eastern end of the Alps, Val Gardena on the southern side, Obergurgl on the northern side.

Right time for another glance at the ensembles. You can see GFS 06z op was an outlier in FI.

Best of snow continues to look like Austria (northern side of the Alps) for now with some game changing snow in the coming week. Some hope for Scotland in FI?



The Arlberg



Chamonix



Cairngorm



Sestriere



Eastern Pyrenees

snow conditions
 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@nozawaonsen, Any reasonable hopes for meaningful snow in Verbier or Zermatt over the next week?
snow conditions
 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@Ptspeak, I was about to ask the same thing
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mheadbee wrote:


If it transpired that Morzine was a golf course and only a few open in Avoriaz which were sheet ice I think we would be disappointed.


That's probably a fair reflection of current conditions!! Fingers crossed the things change for the western alps pretty soon!
snow conditions
 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
There's plenty open in Avoriaz and conditions on piste are generally really good.
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nozawaonsen wrote:



Chamonix




The 11th appears to be worth watching?
snow conditions
 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@buchanan101, Zell lake partially frozen an hour ago when I drove past. Temps down to -20c later in the week will probs see that expand to 50% of the lake, if that continues could see it being nearly all frozen by the 9th.

I've been in Austria since Friday staying in Kaprun, the warmest I've seen it was 2c in direct sunlight. Most mornings it's been -10c and been very cold in the almost sun less village, so the conditions have been great. The locals were also saying half a metre of snow WILL arrive midweek since Friday. So I'm very excited for the next few days. Leave on the 7th Sad
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Strongy suspect it will dump on 12th as I fly back to Geneva for a ladies ski weekend in the GM. Bound to have to put snow chains on the hire car and ski in a white out. Spent 2 weeks at Xmas skiing in full sunshine on hardly any snow. Husband who is going the following weekend with the chaps, will of course benefit from said white out and get to ski in full sunshine on loads of lovely snow wink
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@nozawaonsen and Buchanan101, thanks for that- I've downloaded a 'whole-alps' resort map too for context.
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AthersT wrote:
@buchanan101, Zell lake partially frozen an hour ago when I drove past. Temps down to -20c later in the week will probs see that expand to 50% of the lake, if that continues could see it being nearly all frozen by the 9th.

I've been in Austria since Friday staying in Kaprun, the warmest I've seen it was 2c in direct sunlight. Most mornings it's been -10c and been very cold in the almost sun less village, so the conditions have been great. The locals were also saying half a metre of snow WILL arrive midweek since Friday. So I'm very excited for the next few days. Leave on the 7th Sad


Great about the lake - saw it fully frozen in the 80s with ice yachts on it. 4 years ago wasn't frozen which was disappointing as it is stunning from the top of the Schmittenhohe.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.

EC.

GFS.

Up to 80cm for Eastern Parts of Austria
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
C'mon snow gods, give us some snow in Alpe d'Huez! First(and maybe the last time) I buy a season pass!
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Bergfex have been solid on this for the last week - forecast for Kaprun at 911m. At altitude its snowHead but a bit too windy



3029m


Last edited by So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much on Tue 3-01-17 17:26; edited 1 time in total
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Hi, sorry for the naive question but does anybody have a link or an explanation on how to interpret the squiggly line graphs? Ta in advance...!
snow conditions
 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
HTL wrote:
Hi, sorry for the naive question but does anybody have a link or an explanation on how to interpret the squiggly line graphs? Ta in advance...!


Here http://snowheads.com/ski-forum/viewtopic.php?t=14852
snow conditions
 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@Ptspeak @Run28 ATM looks like 30-50cm to Next Monday
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Whitegold wrote:
First half of January will be windy.



As predicted a week ago.
snow conditions
 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Whitegold wrote:
Whitegold wrote:
First half of January will be windy.



As predicted a week ago.


Spooky.

Errm. Ok, ok. My turn now!

I reckon.... Hmmm... Wait. I'm thinking.

No don't interrupt!

I've got it.

In this month (January I'm not always good with months), I think, cos you know, I think.

That some places in January will be windy. Some places, OK, they will not be so windy. But maybe not at the same. Time that is. Though they could be. At the same time.

But I don't know. Really.
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nozawaonsen wrote:
Whitegold wrote:
Whitegold wrote:
First half of January will be windy.



As predicted a week ago.


Spooky.

Errm. Ok, ok. My turn now!

I reckon.... Hmmm... Wait. I'm thinking.

No don't interrupt!

I've got it.

In this month (January I'm not always good with months), I think, cos you know, I think.

That some places in January will be windy. Some places, OK, they will not be so windy. But maybe not at the same. Time that is. Though they could be. At the same time.

But I don't know. Really.


snowHead snowHead snowHead
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@nozawaonsen, far too vague.

The first half of January will be cold and snowy at times.
At other times it will be cold and sunny.
Some days it won't be all that cold.
The wind will not cause significant problems, except for skiers on exposed chairlifts on the really windy days.

This forecast is specific to some parts of northern Europe.

You mark my words, I'll be able to out do @Whitegold's I-told-you-so's
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Me, me, me - I predict there will be snow this month - 26th of Jan 22.00 in Tignes.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
I think it gets colder in winter and warmer in summer. I predicted this YEARS ago! Better than Whitegold any day!
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@Whitegold, will sometimes be right and will be able to say "I told you so". Sometimes he will not be right and will say "but I told you that I'm not always right". So what ever he says you can be assured that one way or the other he might be right.
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An authoritive forecast for UK snow, it will be great to use my fat skis in Sheffield
http://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/748576/January-2017-weather-forecast-snow-UK-winter-heavy-snow?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=DX%2F2017HeavySnow&utm_term=DX%2F2017HeavySnow&utm_content=DX%2F2017HeavySnow
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Whitegold wrote:
Whitegold wrote:
First half of January will be windy.


As predicted a week ago.


Not windy in Tignes today or did you not include French Alps Puzzled
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Bit of a change here in the Pyrenees today. Late afternoon yesterday a breeze picked up and for the first time in probably a month we did not have frost in our garden this morning (630m) which due to the inversion has been stuck with us. Clear blue sky still persists, and there are no signs of this changing anytime soon.

At Baqueira today which as a lot busier than yesterday, and they had canons running until mid morning, and they were on again by about 1600. There is a lot of skiing however more snow is needed as there are too many stones for my liking especially on the runs back to the base.

It looks like I will be swapping the two skis back for two wheels and get my bike out Very Happy Very Happy
snow conditions
 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
On the GFS outputs, what rate of snowfall does '5' equate to? Obviously it's the area under the graph that counts for total depth. Thanks.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
mheadbee wrote:
Quote:

zzz
hors Piste
Posts: 552
Location: Morzine, France

@mheadbee,

Very little sadly. They continue to open more pistes though as they make more snow.


I could probably live with that. This is the lads 3 day trip so as long as there are some decent pistes we will be happy. If it transpired that Morzine was a golf course and only a few open in Avoriaz which were sheet ice I think we would be disappointed.


Prepare to be disappointed
snow conditions
 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Bloody FREEZING at Stubai today - down to -12°C at the base station at the end of the day. 10-15cms of new snow last night was just enough to sneak some offpiste turns in between rocks and glacier ice in places.
snow conditions
 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
stewart woodward wrote:
Whitegold wrote:
Whitegold wrote:
First half of January will be windy.


As predicted a week ago.


Not windy in Tignes today or did you not include French Alps Puzzled


Bise here in Grenoble.
snow conditions
 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Recent model runs still showing lots of high pressure over Spain/France out to 8-10days, but these two snap shots at 144h caught my eye. ECM left, UKMO right. Probably nothing.
GFS equivalent isn't as pretty so I've obviously not shown that one.

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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Quote:

zzz
hors Piste
Posts: 554
Location: Morzine, France

mheadbee wrote:
Quote:

zzz
hors Piste
Posts: 552
Location: Morzine, France

@mheadbee,

Very little sadly. They continue to open more pistes though as they make more snow.


I could probably live with that. This is the lads 3 day trip so as long as there are some decent pistes we will be happy. If it transpired that Morzine was a golf course and only a few open in Avoriaz which were sheet ice I think we would be disappointed.


Prepare to be disappointed


I don't think we will be. Most people are saying there is a lot open in Avoriaz and still two weeks to go. Those charts above show very cold weather coming up and potential precipitation from the 9th to the 19th.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
la Grave

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Just looked at the Salzburg airport weather, thundersnow is mentioned for tomorrow afternoon...

Dumptastic snowHead
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
2planks wrote:
Just looked at the Salzburg airport weather, thundersnow is mentioned for tomorrow afternoon...

Dumptastic snowHead


You're right about that.
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I'll share a nice link with you guys
https://www.ventusky.com/?p=46;-7;2&l=gust&t=20161011/18&m=icon&w=0QEQYp_5B
Interactive GFS and GEM viewer.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@Jellybeans1000, nice, that should help fill my 13 remaining work days before heading out!
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@clarky999, yes to that. Very cold further east too!

Looking deeper into FI the signal for a pattern change remains. In the reliable outlook the eastern Alps are favoured, further out snowfall pushes back west, but still too soon to have confidence.
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Anything for Zermatt/Cervinia with these storms to the North and East? Arriving there on the 14th. Thanks.
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Jellybeans1000 wrote:
I'll share a nice link with you guys
https://www.ventusky.com/?p=46;-7;2&l=gust&t=20161011/18&m=icon&w=0QEQYp_5B
Interactive GFS and GEM viewer.


That's an incredible site! Shocked

How reliable is this technicolour feast for the eyes? Seems a lot like snow-forecast.com - a lot of detail with a lot of colour, a long way into the future... very tempting to take as gospel... but seems like the deep fidelity in graphics tracks back to being based on one model run extrapolated, with the same likelihood of wild U-turns on weather outcomes as the forecast date approaches?
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