 Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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brian
brian
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Don't get too excited, the foehn is coming this weekend. 
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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brian, you're full of hot air 
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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I was surprised and impressed to get a snowplough up here last week after about 10 cms of snow. This morning it's a lot more - a good 20 - and they were up early again.
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kitenski, I've got all these ovens to clean....... yes, I know, I'm a wimp. I admit it.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Some great pictures to be had as the sun burns through the cloud on the snowy mountains... But the warmer temperatures and the foehn are going to eat into the snow from midweek...
01 November paying no attention at all to my hyperbole and looking more lamb than lion now 
Snowing in Hokkaido though!
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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MoodyFFS, it only seemed to have 18z runs? Which I thought may have been down to the site it was linked to as I noticed that my links to wzkarten were also only giving 18z runs. Could just be my lack of IT skills shining through though... 
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nozawaonsen, i'll get that updated tonight... the other link you sent seems to have the latest runs so I'll use that instead... any other suggestions recommendations? 
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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MoodyFFS, great!
Not quite sure why the websites switch back and forth? But there you are...
Anyway, early November is looking rather... boo, hiss... mild... (though a mild early November really means nothing as far as Winter is concerned).
As far as I can see weather is zonal for now, with system after system of wet and mild weather sweeping in and driving in off the Atlantic and for now ploughing through Europe. It looks like part of the system which will swipe the UK round the 29 October will hit the Alps around 01 November.
Soooo...arriving in the Alps around All Saints day... ("Never ever have I ever felt so low...")
Anyhow, a low pressure system on or around that date seems to have been a persistent feature for a good number of the ensembles over the last few days and would look like snow at height (2000m+? higher?), but rain lower. From what I can see the precipitation looks like it will hit the west and south of the Alps harder than the north and east.
[Edit: Looking really rather warm in Alps around 5th November.]
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Poster: A snowHead
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This evening's 12z GFS ensembles look interesting.
The last half a dozen runs have seen outliers diving below well below average on or around 07th November. This evening it all looks far more determined with the operational and control joining forces and delivering -5C across much of the Alps at 1500m and a high sitting over the UK.
All in FI, but worth keeping an eye on!
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Rainfall and higher up, snowfall for 31 October and 01 November looks like it could be fairly strong from the GFS ensembles, particularly to the south and west of the Alps, but there is an interesting disparity in the potential quantities in several of the ensembles. The Chamonix run above being a good example, where the operational is (and has been for a while) running far beneath the rest of the ensembles for the same time and location. So it will be interesting to see where this comes out. It also means if a forecast is running off the GFS operational run (and you can see this for example I believe on the www.snow-forecast.com/ forecast?) then it will not be flagging up the potentially higher amounts of precipitation that could be about to arrive.
Anyway this does look like it will provide some more snow at the top of the mountains, building up the base, but the rain will have the opposite effect lower down.
Secondly the last few runs are continuing to support the idea that the mild weather pattern might be broken around 07 November, with temperatures dropping by 10C or more. Whether this would then settle into a colder pattern (and whether indeed it will happen at all) should become clearer in the next few days.
Incidentally here is a rather good website for those interested in Colorado snowfall:
Colorado Powder Forecast
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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nozawaonsen, here in the eastern Alps we have a massive Föhn storm running right now - been building up for 2 days and couldn't you feel it too! Temperatures outside currently resemble early summer and, but for the very strong winds, it would have been a nice temperature to breakfast on the balcony.
Due to break tomorrow and then rain again from Monday but our predicted temperatures are relatively mild for the next week considering it is the start of November. Our local 16-day forecast is not giving any minus temperatures on the northern side of the Tirol/Salzburg Alps until the beginning of the third week. Whilst not the most accurate, it is a relatively reliable predictor of trends in general.
Here's hoping we are not seeing a repeat of last year's early season debacle  I want to start to use my season pass next weekend!
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Samerberg Sue, yes the temperatures in the Tirol and Vorarlberg look above average right up until 07 November according to the GFS run. And indeed it is looking really quite warm across the Alps around Guy Fawkes. The potential change of pattern from 07 November is certainly just a hint at present and not one the other models seem to be picking up yet (or by any means all of the GFS ensembles). But worth watching anyway!
The chart below shows how the temperature anomalies are currently above average above across most of Europe except for a narrow band at the western end of the Alps.
10-day temperature outlook for Europe (look at the third of the three maps to see the anomalies)
And this map also show how the likely 01 November snowfall/precipitation is running around that same part of the Alps.
Last year the first week of November and even into the second week it was actually quite cold and there was quite a bit of snow all across the Austrian alps. It was the second half of the month and the first week of December which not only didn't deliver, but actually melted much of the early snow... Anyway as you say let's hope the second half of November doesn't go that way this year!
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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nozawaonsen, that map's good enough for me
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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This evenings GFS ensembles continue to provide support for the idea that 07 November might see a break in the mild pattern, bringing in some potentially quite significantly colder air across the Alps. ECM ensembles from other parts of Europe also have the 07 November marking a move to colder weather.
Whether it would be just a short sharp cold snap or something longer lasting, and quite how cold it would get, is unclear. 06z GFS looked slightly more keen on the idea than 12z GFS, both though had quite unsettled periods in the second week of November, which if the cold did come would bring snow.
Of course, as ever, this is all a long way off and subject to change...
Incidentally some of the ensembles for the Aosta Valley are quite incredible. Looks like it really is going to put down some rain and snow at height over the next couple of days (puts the Chamonix forecast above to shame!)
Interesting piece by Brian Glaze at TWO, Winter thoughts…
"I think those people expecting the winter to be dominated either by a mid Atlantic high, or high pressure sitting over the British Isles are barking up the wrong tree. We’ll see how it pans out, but it looks to me as though this winter will see high pressure developing over Scandinavia, bringing a good chance of bitterly cold from the east reaching Britain."
The piece is illustrated by a GFS chart reaching out to the end of its run. If it came off (and it is far too far away to have any confidence at this point) it would be a pretty cold mid November.
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Looks like it has been snowing in parts of the Italian alps and there is a bit more to come yet.
It's forecast to be pretty warm over the Alps for the next week... But... the models continue to support a pretty substantial temperature drop on or around the 07 November.
A week from now GFS has a high sitting west of the UK, blocking the mild Atlantic weather and a deep low pressure coming from the north into the UK with Arctic cold coming down across Europe. This would bring cold and quite possibly snow to high parts of Scotland, as well as pretty windy and wet weather to much of the UK.
The ECM model is slightly different and has the low further to the West of the UK and temperatures recovering faster.
Following the GFS model the Alps would cool considerably around 07 November, dropping almost 15C and then tracking beneath average for the next week (keep in mind that November sees the seasonal averages move down the whole way in any case - almost 3C between now and mid November) with the cold accompanied by snow.
Here's a chart of the GFS model for Monday 08 November (limited confidence at that range that this is how it will play out!)
[edited to adjust chart]
Last edited by Then you can post your own questions or snow reports... on Tue 2-11-10 9:00; edited 4 times in total
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It's been getting pretty white over the last day in the Monte Rosa region, although a warmer spell is expected mid week, due to drop shortly afterwards...
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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due to drop shortly afterwards...
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Finger's crossed milnerhome!
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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been snowing all day in the monte rosa region, not had a depth figure quoted but it's all on top of the 30cm which had been deposited a few days before, temperature's are predicted to rise mid week, sharply falling later on in the week, but it's not looking to shabby so far.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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milnerhome, the same weather system caused some real problems a bit further south with reports of flooding, mudslides and apparently over 700mm (!) of rain in three days in parts of Italy! 
Here's an interesting chart showing how the jet stream is forecast to rise over the high pressure in the Atlantic then dive down south driving the low pressure with it...
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12z GFS ensembles for the Alps follow 06z by easing off a little on the cold in the second week of November. Temperatures would still drop on Sunday, but would be closer to seasonal average for the second week of the month rather than running below.
Given the unsettled weather it still looks like a fair amount of snow could be on the way, certainly above 2000m and if the forecast goes back to some of the earlier runs it would be quite a bit lower. It will be interesting to see which way the ensembles go over the next few days...
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brian
brian
Guest
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Medium term outlook looks good to me. Azores high in the right place for average to cool moisture to head for the alps. Pretty much what you'd want in early November.
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brian
brian
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Wow, check this little beauty ... (equivalent GFS has the low centred over Brittany up near the Faroes, big difference!)
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Poster: A snowHead
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brian
brian
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Hah, GFS falls into line, this chart is for the same time as the ECM one I posted yesterday. Near enough identical.
Cracking setup for E Scotland but about 6 weeks too early.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Hmm, ECM now has that second low staying north of the UK, pinned back by high pressure to the south and moving east rather than charging through the UK a few days after Monday's stormy weather. Nevertheless it looks like there should be some snow in Scotland in the next few days along with really quite nasty weather across the UK...
Accumulations in the Alps over the next week aren't looking bad, especially at the eastern end in some of yesterday's ensembles. The last couple of runs have slightly eased up though.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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Samerberg Sue, yes this weekend has been looking like it was going to be very mild for a while, until tomorrow when the temperatures should drop fairly quickly into Monday.
Which Austrian site are you using? I can't see much dry next week, certainly not in the west of Austria (and Bergfex, Wetter.at all look fairly snowy at altitude next week?). The Arlberg, Stubai, Hintertux, Ischgl, Solden all look like they are going to get a fair amount of snow in the coming week.
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nozawaonsen, not using an Austrian one I use wetter.com and then just put in the location I want. I mix it with a whole host of satellite and real time interpretation sites (rainfall, wind speed and direction, etc). I still find the Met Office charts amongst the most accurate ones for forecasting up to 3/4 days in advance. I also use Bergfex and the DAV weather pages.
Nice situation building though that could provide some of the white cold fluffy stuff: northerly air stream screaming down the North Sea meeting with a deep but perfectly formed intensive LP zone brewing up in the Adriatic. Usually results in a nice snow conveyor belt in the eastern Alps later in the season. May just be too warm still to be of any use except the higher levels.
We have some rain forecast but no significant amounts mixed with low temperatures. After the middle of the week they are currently hedging their bets with forecasts of light showers. Northern Germany has copped a hell of a lot of the moisture this past week so I suppose the air is a wee bit drier by the time it has beaten its way down to us. That's were the Adriatic lows are of use for topping up the atmospheric water content.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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FAQ
As far as I know it is still snowing heavily there and should continue to do so until the middle of the week. I'm in the Alpenvorland between the Salzburg and Inntal autobahns at a mere 800m asl.
but which bit the site itself, the grab, getting the grab or the data in graph the grab gets? Let me know and I will get it fixed 
