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The All New 12/13 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@steve: mate, if I get a little bit of freshening up, piste or not, I won't be complaining at all!!
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Temperatures currently about 8C above average in the Alps. By next Friday 12C below average...

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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Quote:

Temperatures currently about 8C above average in the Alps.


But just looking at the current cameras in St Jean d'arves (vested interest snowHead ) it looks nice and snowy, not nasty and rainy so that 8C isn't too harmful there.

Actually its not 8C anyway there, and I meant to ask, the ensemble for 6, 45 shows a diurnal variation of +5 to 0 and as the 30 year middle runs along at about 0c thats actually only about 2C above normal as you would expect the ensemble line to vary +- of the 30 year mittle which I'm expecting has the diurnal variation averaged out (i.e average of the daily temperature).

everybody understand that? Puzzled
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andyrew, I was simply trying to illustrate the substantial swing from the recent (and current) milder than average temperatures to much colder than average. I don't think I said anything about it being harmful, nasty or rainy?

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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Quote:

andyrew, I was simply trying to illustrate the substantial swing from the recent (and current) milder than average temperatures to much colder than average. I don't think I said anything about it being harmful, nasty or rainy?


No, I know, everyone else on snowheads does that Toofy Grin The first hint that temperatures are going to be a bit above normal and the weeping wailing and gnashing of teeth "will all the snow go" starts Toofy Grin

at a possible 8C above normal I wondered if there would be rain where I'm going, its heartening to see its snow (and obviously even more heartening that I can see the temperatures will be dropping significantly snowHead
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emwmarine, no, disagree with that completely.

Groomed, fresh snow is much more pleasant (on piste) than old snow. Given fairly constant weather conditions, it will slowly deteriorate with time and traffic to become icy and hard-packed, then it'll stay that way until new snow arrives or Spring conditions develop.

Admittedly, if you insist in skiing in some over-populated hell-hole (sorry, "major resort"), then this process will take about 5 minutes... wink
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Well, hardly up there with the input the rest of you are able to give, but this has me really excited!!

http://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/La-Rosiere/6day/top
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
SkiG,

La Rosiere has you excited? Toofy Grin
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Quote:

disagree with that completely.

Groomed, fresh snow is much more pleasant (on piste) than old snow


+1. How could anyone possibly argue otherwise. Puzzled
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zzz, ahh, don't say that, first time there!!
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SkiG, ignore it; there's a lot of rather tedious "in jokes" about La Rosiere on this forum! Anyone not excited about a ski holiday doesn't deserve to be going on one. wink Have a great time. And when a lot of "trendier" places (such as Morzine...) are getting rained on in the next week, La Ros will be snowed on. We enjoyed our first holiday there so much we went back for a second. snowHead
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
ZAMG's round up of winter 12/13 in Austria.

http://www.zamg.ac.at/cms/de/klima/news/winter-2012-13-wenig-sonne-viel-schnee

- A little sun, lots of snow.
- One of the darkest winters in 130 years, -37% sunshine.
- Unusually large amounts of snow, twice the average in Vienna, four times in Bregenz.
- Temperature in mountains -1.6C below average. Ischgl -2.4C

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So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
nozawaonsen, Not clear from the ZAMG about snowfall between far east and far west, from personal observations I'd say average or less for the middle of the northern Austria alps. Though there was the xmas thaw and then rain which dented the accumulated snow depths.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
waynos, says 10% above average in Salzburg, but the article does focus more on above average snowfall in cities rather than the mountains.
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pam w wrote:
Quote:

disagree with that completely.

Groomed, fresh snow is much more pleasant (on piste) than old snow


+1. How could anyone possibly argue otherwise. Puzzled

Easy I reckon Smile - just had 2/3 weeks here of mostly sun, above freezing daytime temps and sometimes below zero nights but no fresh snow and frankly the (old) snow when the sun softened it up a bit was really, really lovely but not so nice on the colder days when it didn't soften. Couple of miserable drizzly days thrown in recently though but after a refreeze and soften the snow was again surprisingly lovely so I'd suggest the quality of the snow, old or new, is therefore rather dependant on the quality of the overheads and general temperatures although there's no denying that fresh groomed 'hero' snow is probably preferable for many of those who are currently less confident in their technique because it tends to be more consistent than anything else.

All academic now though because it's snowing here and set to continue for a few days so fresh will be the order of the day for a wee while at least snowHead
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Quote:

there's no denying that fresh groomed 'hero' snow is probably preferable for many of those who are currently less confident in their technique

well that's probably most of us, compared to the select group of ski-gods around here. snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
where are you Roga?
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
pam w, lol, most people improve and get more confident given the right input and practice Very Happy

mr ted, Aviemore! Cool Shocked
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pam w,

It's raining today in Morzine wink
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Should start cooling down fairly rapidly from tomorrow, very cold by Friday with a fair bit of snow midweek.

Next Sunday looks like it could see further substantial snowfall, particularly in the western Alps.

Temperatures returning to average or a little above from next week.
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zzz, apparently around 8cm of fresh snow up above the top of the super morzine lift.. not managed to get out today myself.. bad times!

fingers crossed for a more impressive dump mid-week..
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Quote:

fingers crossed for a more impressive dump mid-week..


Just hold you breathe and push, it usually works for me



(sorry, couldn't resist it)
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Chances of midweek snow have rather ebbed. Looks like there'll be some, but pretty light. Much colder though.

Temperatures rising a bit over the weekend, closer to seasonal average after a cold end to the week. Potentially quite a bit of snow to come Subday and Monday, well worth keeping an eye on. Next week temperatures look average or colder than average.
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Off to Les Gets on Sunday, hopefully a bit of snow on the horizon, would prefer visibility next week as the wife and kids don't like white outs. Conditions looking pretty good all round so far.
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The whiteout today didn't hold many back, was great in the trees, although I was over on the Avoriaz side. the lower slopes are getting icy and sugary so really hoping for plenty more fresh snow
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nozawaonsen wrote:

Temperatures rising a bit over the weekend, closer to seasonal average after a cold end to the week. Potentially quite a bit of snow to come Subday and Monday, well worth keeping an eye on. Next week temperatures look average or colder than average.


Bergfex are offering a stunning 31cm next monday where I'm going (St Sorlin d'Arves) with an additional 20 spread over sunday to wednesday. Even if its half that it will be quite a top up. The snowline is to be below or well below 1000m.

The ensembles (sorry, wigglies for the under 5s Toofy Grin ) have a precipitation spike for monday that has well pierced the 30 jahres mittel! The temperature is predicted as about 5 below average.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
andyrew wrote:
nozawaonsen wrote:

Temperatures rising a bit over the weekend, closer to seasonal average after a cold end to the week. Potentially quite a bit of snow to come Subday and Monday, well worth keeping an eye on. Next week temperatures look average or colder than average.


Bergfex are offering a stunning 31cm next monday where I'm going (St Sorlin d'Arves) with an additional 20 spread over sunday to wednesday. Even if its half that it will be quite a top up. The snowline is to be below or well below 1000m.

The ensembles (sorry, wigglies for the under 5s Toofy Grin ) have a precipitation spike for monday that has well pierced the 30 jahres mittel! The temperature is predicted as about 5 below average.


Yep looks like most of the Alps (France, Italy Switzerland) is going to get a good dump of snow. I'm off to SKi Amade region in Austria tomorrow. No suprise to see that region is going to be the least affected with just a brief period of snow on Tuesday. Usually I go to the Dolomites which looks like being one of the most affected areas.

The precipitation spike for Folgaria below is just stunning:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_1146_ens.png
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jimmybog wrote:
[
The precipitation spike for Folgaria below is just stunning: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_1146_ens.png


If that comes to fruition, you might be indoors all day!
Although the predicted snowfall is nothing like as dramatic as Folgarida, it looks like sunshine will be in short supply in Arabba next week http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_1247_ens.png
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Red Leon wrote:
jimmybog wrote:
[
The precipitation spike for Folgaria below is just stunning: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_1146_ens.png


If that comes to fruition, you might be indoors all day!
Although the predicted snowfall is nothing like as dramatic as Folgarida, it looks like sunshine will be in short supply in Arabba next week http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_1247_ens.png


That link is for a point quite away NOrth of Arraba near the border with Austria. I think you'll find the precipitation is going to be higher in Arraba than that chart shows.
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Arabba is at latitude 46.4992 (that's decimal rather than minutes and seconds) so is pretty much halfway between the 1246 and 1247 forecasts. One degree of latitude is approx 70 miles. 1246 is in the foothills of the Alps, North of Treviso. 1247 is right on the Italy/Austria border North of Brunico.

Take your pick!
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Wags wrote:
Arabba is at latitude 46.4992 (that's decimal rather than minutes and seconds) so is pretty much halfway between the 1246 and 1247 forecasts. One degree of latitude is approx 70 miles. 1246 is in the foothills of the Alps, North of Treviso. 1247 is right on the Italy/Austria border North of Brunico.

Take your pick!


And weather conditions in that 70 miles could be highly variable especially so with snowfall. Lot of factors will be involved in determining where the heavier snowfall will be. Either way the charts are still a pretty good indicator but should not be taken at face value for a specific location unless that location matches the exact co ordinates
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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jimmybog wrote:

The precipitation spike for Folgaria below is just stunning:
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_1146_ens.png



http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_645_ens.png

My spike is bigger than your spike Twisted Evil
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
jimmybog wrote:
andyrew wrote:
nozawaonsen wrote:

Temperatures rising a bit over the weekend, closer to seasonal average after a cold end to the week. Potentially quite a bit of snow to come Subday and Monday, well worth keeping an eye on. Next week temperatures look average or colder than average.


Bergfex are offering a stunning 31cm next monday where I'm going (St Sorlin d'Arves) with an additional 20 spread over sunday to wednesday. Even if its half that it will be quite a top up. The snowline is to be below or well below 1000m.

The ensembles (sorry, wigglies for the under 5s Toofy Grin ) have a precipitation spike for monday that has well pierced the 30 jahres mittel! The temperature is predicted as about 5 below average.


Yep looks like most of the Alps (France, Italy Switzerland) is going to get a good dump of snow. I'm off to SKi Amade region in Austria tomorrow. No suprise to see that region is going to be the least affected with just a brief period of snow on Tuesday. Usually I go to the Dolomites which looks like being one of the most affected areas.

The precipitation spike for Folgaria below is just stunning:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_1146_ens.png


Ski Amade/Salzburg area got (apparently) the most from the storm that just passed through, so don't worry too much.

More snow than I expected here, 20-25cms fresh today, still snowing up top.
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Quote:

20-25cms fresh today, still snowing up top.

sounds good. snowHead
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pam w, only fairly lightly, but I'm not complaining wink
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I just hope the system tracks a little west to bring big spikes for Arabba! wink
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Crikey, looks like snow sun-thurs in les gets next week........ not sure if that is good or bad, my wife and the kids are not keen on white outs or the cold.
If it was a lads trip I would be very excited, but now just a bit apprehensive.
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Complicated spread in GFS FI this morning raising the possibility of a cold end to the month. The op is an outlier, but it has been in this territory in a couple of runs recently so interesting to see which way it goes.

The Arlberg



Les Deux Alpes



Some decent snow between Sunday and Tuesday and again midweek as well as possibly next weekend.
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Sunday and Monday snowy, but also windy.

http://www.meteocentrale.ch/en/weather/foehn-and-bise/foehn.html
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22:40 snowing now in St Jean d'Arves, and not petite neige, GRANDE NEIGE!!
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