[quote="Snowbandit56"]Sleety snow here on the West Lancashire plain 15m above sea level in the shadow of the Parbold Massif. Great conditions on the Stubai Glacier last week seem like a distant memory today, oh well countdown to the next fix in just over 4 weeks has already begun.
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Sleety snow here on the West Lancashire plain 15m above sea level in the shadow of the Parbold Massif. Great conditions on the Stubai Glacier last week seem like a distant memory today, oh well countdown to the next fix in just over 4 weeks has already begun.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Sleety snow here on the West Lancashire plain 15m above sea level in the shadow of the Parbold Massif. Great conditions on the Stubai Glacier last week seem like a distant memory today, oh well countdown to the next fix in just over 4 weeks has already begun and praying for the return of proper winter conditions in the Salzburgerland.
For those Half term’ers and those interested in the Tarentaise forecast for the weekend .
Bit of snow Sat night when the foehn ends apart from a few flakes on the borders in Val/Tignes …..below
Forecast for your weekend:
Saturday :
️Foehn !
A cloudy, gray and windy day awaits us this Saturday, some precipitation could overflow from the border, especially on the sides of Tignes and Val d'Isère.
We will have to wait for the evening to see hoping the rainfall will arrive and the end of the Foehn, around 19/21h depending on sectors.
The rainfall will therefore spread in the evening and will affect us until the end of the night from Saturday to Sunday.
The cumulus will range from 5 to 10 mm.
It will snow tonight at 1100/1200m at the beginning of disturbance then the LPN will quickly descend to 900m by the end of the evening, and into the night.
We expect 5cm from 1200m, locally 10cm above 1500m.
The wind will therefore blow up to gusts at 60/70km/h from dawn, and will affect us until the end of the afternoon, beginning of the evening.
Above 2500/3000m altitude, gusts could reach 100/110km/h on exposed sectors.
Temperatures are dropping, going from +8°C to +12°C in the valley, from +6°C to +9°C to 900m, from +1°C to +3°C to 1800m, from -3°C to -2°C to 2600m and from -8°C to -6°C to 3500m altitude.
ISO 0°C will be at 2400m altitude at best of the day and the pressures will be in degenerates, 990hPa expected during the day.
S U N D A Y :
Covered...
A few more residues at sunrise with a few flakes up to 1100/1200m.
Then the rest of the day will be done under a well covered sky and sometimes overcrowded peaks, dropping some flakes in altitude.
The wind is Westerly and blowing lightly, very slightly more sensitive over areas exposed to Westerly wind, some gusts to 40/50km/h above 2000m.
Temperatures are dropping, from +4°C to +7°C in the valley, from 0°C to +6°C to 900m, from -4°C to 0°C to 1800m, from -8°C to -5°C to 2600m and from -14°C to -12°C at 3500m altitude.
ISO 0°C for best time of day at 1700m
Pressure is rising slightly, after the disturbance passes 1000hPa during the day.
Thank you for reading, have a good evening everyone, see you on Sunday for the next bulletin of your first part of the week!
Roman VIVIANI by Météo Tarentaise
Our partner R’les Arcs la radio station
( www.laradiostation.fr )
Map from GFS (Weather) model
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
But looks like it’s snowing nicely over the border in La Thuile .
After all it is free
After all it is free
Lot of rain in NW Alps.
Snow up top.
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We arrived in La Foux d'allos late yesterday in the Southern French Alps so can provide an update for anybody heading to the Alpes Maritimes or Haute Provence.
Rain in Nice changed to snow enroute at about 1450m altitude, so a little lower than forecast. It continues to snow and is forecast to keep going until Sunday morning. New snow in the village (at 1800m) is presently approx 20-30cm. There must be much more on the slopes above. We will find out shortly. Thankfully little wind.
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Arrived midday in val cenis drive from macon fine. Car hit 15 degrees before temp started to fall. 2 degrees in town mixture of rain/light snow. Hope gets colder and snows overnight nothing at all now.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
Rob Mackley wrote:
But looks like it’s snowing nicely over the border in La Thuile .
Just had a powder day at Pila, with knee deep snow in places, so Aosta was getting the goods. Was pouring with rain up to about 1600m, then changed abruptly. Snow surprisingly light considering.
We were going to go to La Thuile but it looked completely socked in.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Some good snow to be found higher up today in Monterosa. Was soft and wet lower down though. The place was deserted which made for a fun day.
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
leggyblonde wrote:
@DomEvans8, I'll try and remember to update as I'm there this weekend. But it looks like sleet turning to snow for before you arrive so should be fine!
Hope you've had a good weekend! How's it looking out there?
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Doesn’t look like anything major for the week ahead , back to mild perhaps possibly very mild Valentine’s Day with s disturbance end of week with snow mid to high up .
The cold spells being flirted with in Western Europe keep getting pushed out, now end Feb /early March if it happens at all , time will tell .
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@Rob Mackley, it’s coming sooner than that
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@polo, Hope so how about next week ?
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
What’re you thinking @polo? Definitely cooling down after 14/15th but doesn’t look anything other than seasonal average in PdS?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
I will be heading to Andorra between March 3rd - 9th and it seems more and more likely there wont be any significant snowfall by then. Anyone following forecast for the Pyrenees by any chance? Also, anyone skiing there these days wanna share their experience regarding conditions?
I will be heading to Andorra between March 3rd - 9th and it seems more and more likely there wont be any significant snowfall by then. Anyone following forecast for the Pyrenees by any chance? Also, anyone skiing there these days wanna share their experience regarding conditions?
Thanks a bunch
There is an individual thread for the Pyrenees this year that you can see some conversations about it, I am heading on Paddy's Day (17th of March) so you will have better conditions then I would be the looks of things.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
polo wrote:
@Rob Mackley, it’s coming sooner than that
Not sure about this @polo ... it looks as dry as a well crafted martini in the NW Alps over the next 7-10 days.
After all it is free
After all it is free
@franga, meteoblue has a fairly significant dump in Avoriaz next weekend
, but haven’t really seen that anywhere else.
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andy from embsay wrote:
@franga, meteoblue has a fairly significant dump in Avoriaz next weekend
, but haven’t really seen that anywhere else.
Meteoblue was saying the same for me for Bretaye (1800m, about 20 miles east of Avoriaz), just updated it this morning and it's all but disappeared
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Ski the Net with snowHeads
Getting a bit of support on MeteoSki as well @DomEvans8, but it’s a long way away yet!
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
@DomEvans8, There was 5+cm on Thursday night and 10+ on Saturday night in Diablerets above 1600m or so. The pistes are in a good condition except lower down, in fact I'd say some very good above Bretaye. Glacier 3000 has been closed for a few days due to wind but I imagine it will be excellent up there when it opens
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Ok should explain myself....a bottle of Italian red during yesterdays rugby viewing may have skewed my objectivity.
No question it's been a disappointing season given the various signals, and while back loaded cold is still a possibility, multiple teleconnection signals have failed to live up to expectations. Then again none of them are reliable in isolation. The main problem with the near season long S/SW running 'El Nino' jet has been the lack of favourable northern blocking, without which, we get predominantly mild flow into the west.
So, defining a cold spell as several days sub zero at 850hpa, I'll have a proper look at whether the current output shows potential before end of feb/early mar.
Bear in mind the second weak and brief SSW of the season is due in a weeks time (this is one thing that the Nino-eQBO combo has delivered on....SSW's).
The issues with strat warmings are a) whether they actually impact (downwell) on the tropospheric pattern, b) where that impact is felt....will europe be on the warm side or the cold side of any polar air digging south and c) the timing....will we get a QTR (quick trop response) or slow multiple week downwelling, which brings us firmly into spring.
Can't answer any of those questions now but as we get closer to the 19th (expected zonal wind reversal) the models will start to factor in any strat impacts.
Near term, the warm up this week should peak on the 15th around +10c, before trending back to low single digits into following week (per current ensembles).
EC46 for week 19-26th has improved over the last few days.....latest update showing greenland block and NW flow to alps.
One other good chart is the NOAA 8-14 day composite....a meteorologist there decides each day on the weightings of a ECM/GFS/GEM combo to produce the chart, and again for the same week it's showing the atlantic mild air has been largely cut off, with greenland high and scandi trough trying to dig south. It's a messy chart (and US-oriented), but here's the link. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php
SSW impacts aside, those are the only 2 charts that offer straws of hope.
Looking at the more traditional day 10 mean ensemble anomalies, it's chaos. Bordering on completely useless. ECM, GFS and GEM
As those are for the 21st, it's still early in the week, so doesn't mean EC46/NOAA are unrealisitc. About all you can say here is 2/3 maintain heights over western europe at day 10, with only GFS showing low's. One or two of these models are going flip drastically in the next few days, but until then there is no clear signal.
Summing up, next week will very likely be colder, but apart from GFS no sign of sub zero 850's. But looking a little further into the unrelialbe (19-26th) there are encouraging signs. But as Rob says they have been getting pushed back. Still no way we can call the end of feb/early mar as the week before that is still in with a decent shot.
Last edited by And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports. on Mon 12-02-24 18:22; edited 4 times in total
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@polo, excellent summary and clearly explained thanks
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
leggyblonde wrote:
@DomEvans8, There was 5+cm on Thursday night and 10+ on Saturday night in Diablerets above 1600m or so. The pistes are in a good condition except lower down, in fact I'd say some very good above Bretaye. Glacier 3000 has been closed for a few days due to wind but I imagine it will be excellent up there when it opens
Glad to hear it! Reckon that will last with the mild week forecast?
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
GFS 06z again shows the potential, first shot (weak) for 19/20th, 1000m snowline, and then the holy grail reload 25th....13 days away though, so very much a fantasy at this stage
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
The models show a trend that we have seen on a few occasions this winter, i.e. a warm plume from northwest Africa heading to the Alps later this week, with 5000 ft temperatures in the range PS 05 to 10C. This is followed after day 7 or so by a cooling trend, with some solutions looking very promising for significant snowfall. Reality often looks different with the long-term cooling being less significant than predicted. This may be an inherent problem with the models, as they do seem to over-predict the likelihood of cooler air in the period beyond 7 days, so an element of caution may be necessary before we get too excited!
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@Onelasttime1!, well Dr Amy H Butler, an atmospheric scientist at NOAA is not heeding your advice, she has just tweeted how "psyched" she is about the upcoming SSW
I don't know much about her, apart from seeing a few tweets posted here and there, but I imagine she is more excited about the technical fact that we are having 2 SSW's in one season, than the possibility of pow filled late half term chaos and some new sH gopro footage.
She notes this has only happened 5 times since records began in the 1950's (SSW's, not the HT chaos / gopros). Last one was 2010. I won't be charging mine until I see solid consensus at day 5. The last SSW did nothing for us.
In other tweets, Finland hit a new 21st century low of -44.3C last month, and overall is having it's coldest winter since 2010 as well.
Strong El Nino's are nearly always mild and wet overall for europe it seems......but still over 2 months to go, maybe the best is yet to come.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@polo, am I right in thinking the SSW happens then the impact is felt a week or so later?
@matejp, I think that's the average expectation....but no hard and fast rules as it might not impact the trop at all, or it could be days / immediate.
It's a pretty grey area, you'd look at where the strat vortex gets displaced to (from the warming)....in this case it's going to be forced to sit over the european side 25km above us, but then you'd have to look at the layers from 10hpa down to the surface to see if there is a matching -ve anomaly all the way down to a euro trough @500 hpa for example.
The main takeaway is that the westerly zonal winds above us are in a very weak state and the strat pv has been split/displaced. This can lead to arctic outbreaks to mid latitudes in the lower levels that impact our weather, more -AO etc.
Thing is, we are already in a -AO phase, with some good potential for mid atlantic ridge (possible MJO assistance). So an SSW might actually mess the whole thing up.....just can't say with any confidence ahead of the event.
Lower trails across Europe today are browning up. Mud showing thru. More ice than Santa's backyard.
Zero iso zooming back up to 3500m in Italy, France and elsewhere this weekend.
Too hot to spray snow.
Feb 12 is the spring tipping point for Europe.
Spring is right around the corner.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@polo, it sounds like a win/win situation. No snow and we don't have to put up with the selfie stick footage of you skiing all on your ownsome on Mont Chery, or loads of snow.... and we'll suffer for the cause.
Here's to seeing some more of that crazy Go-Pro action
After all it is free
After all it is free
@zzz, yeah no one should have to put up with that, lucky I didn't cross post it to several threads.....I'd recommend not pressing the buttons
Weak troughs sliding east next weekend, ....high pressure stubborn over central europe, as per usual
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
Ok it does seem to me that this warm spell has now been going on for a long time, is my impression accurate? Like long enough to be defining for the season
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
8611 wrote:
Ok it does seem to me that this warm spell has now been going on for a long time, is my impression accurate? Like long enough to be defining for the season
It has been incredibly long. Heat and torrential rain came to Schladming the day we left on 23 December. One cold snap in The Alps since, was it the third week of January? So 7 and a half weeks of mainly very mild weather.
Fortuitously there’s still a significant snow base from Nov/early Dec on higher pistes. France suffered from two or three huge low pressure systems delivering rain to the Alps in January. Relatively speaking this is better than Xmas to mid March a year ago.
FAQ
Poster: A snowHead
️Foehn !
but as we get closer to the 19th (expected zonal wind reversal) the models will start to factor in any strat impacts.
