 Poster: A snowHead
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Hold your horses - GFS 18Z and 00Z runs both have a much lower snowline for Friday and Saturday, especially in the northern Alps. Would be a miracle for things to change at this late notice, but one to watch?
Edit: ...and 06Z continues the cooler theme for Friday / Saturday, with snow mostly to below 1500m in the NW Alps.
Last edited by Poster: A snowHead on Wed 8-03-23 7:35; edited 1 time in total
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Meteo Tarentaise this morning is long so will just present highlights , light to moderate snow this morning/early afternoon in waves snow level rising to 1700/1800m , intense precipitation after 4pm with possible thunderstorms snow level rising sharply to possibly 2000m before returning back to 1600/1800m 7pm .
New bullitin later this week ahead of weekend storm but notes models have changed and snow levels may be 1500m ? Good news possibly .
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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We can all pray. Pls do update this thread!!
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That would be immense (and very surprising) if it happens 
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@denfinella, it’s a very chaotic scene as far as I understand it so fingers crossed the fl is lower!
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Here in St M in the 3V it’s snowing at 1450m, which it better than the forecast predicted, though I think it’s still set to turn to rain later. We’ve had a couple of inches since late yesterday.
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Snowing in Saas-Fee down to the village at 1800m.
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The freezing level for Chamonix on Snow Forecast has come down by more than 1km for Friday night / Saturday morning. Snow instead of rain all day Saturday and then dropping winds might make Sunday the best powder day of the season.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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For those wanting yet another source of forecast I have used the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) over the last few weeks. I'm sure old news to many in this thread.
The way I get to a resort forecast is a bit convoluted and I'm sure there is a way to set this up but have not invested time there. Anyway the steps I take are:
Goto Forecast>Charts>Medium Range
I then select 'Rain and mean sea level pressure' but probably other charts will get to the next step.
You can then click a location on the chart and you are then able to type in a named location. So La Plagne is there, as is Les Coches ( occasionally it is not found for some reason). Les Arc does not seem to be but Vallandry is.
You are then given a 10 day forecast for various parameters and can select 15 day, precipitation type ( not at that exact location) and other items. I'm sure the location forecasts carry some error due to local variables etc.
As to accuracy, I'm sure others will comment versus other models for Europe. The chart certainly forecast the storm/perception for the second half of the week 10-15 days out. The freezing level has moved around a bit so will be interesting to see what I encounter when arriving on Saturday evening - it now looks a bit colder.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Thanks @chocksaway, I do read your Tignes thread too, I'm just getting impatient as usual!
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Hi Scot, yes the ensemble charts (jaggy lines) you will see posted in this thread are from either the GFS or ECMWF models. We will look at the temp (either 850hPa or 2m) along with the forecast precipitation to forecast snow based on the FL. Most weather forecasting sites are taking this ensemble data, getting the mean and then using the same to produce a forecast.
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@hold_my_biere, wowsers if it comes good!
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You know it makes sense.
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Rain turning to snow now somewhere around 1600 meters but not heavy. There's been 15cm of new snow at 2300 meters in the mountains around Grenoble since the current weather event started.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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At Valmeinier 1800: had maybe half an inch fresh snow last night which improved conditions a great deal this morning. Soon melted down by lunch time and very slushy lower down still. This afternoon there is very wet snow/ rain pretty continuously in the resort with snow higher up.
All in all it’s been probably been good for the high slopes but with the way the resort is organised it may have done more harm than good overall with the connections into Valloire below 1500.
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Poster: A snowHead
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Very similar here in La Rosier. Snow all day but a little damp at resort level. Definitely improved the pistes on this side but will be interesting to see how La Thuile is tomorrow with it being slightly lower.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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In La Thuile today, loads of fresh powder at 2200m (Gondola station), lower runs into village (1550m) were holding up well when we finished at 4pm, but since then, rain in the village has become very heavy.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Rain in resort here now as well, will hopefully turn back to snow soon!
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Raining in Cesana (1350) but I see wet snow on webcam at 2150 ish.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Hosing down rain in Chamonix … hope the LPN is lower than I imagine…
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Big miss on the forecast last night.
In Mottaret and I can't see a fresh snow line anywhere up the side of the mountain. On the plus side, it didn't seem like a lot of rain came down either.
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12cm in Tignes Le Lac, bit more higher up. The freezing level is moving back uphill for Saturday 
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Raining steadily in Nasserein, St Anton. The webcams are showing IMC conditions on the Gampen and Galzig, ie pea soup. It is -2.6C on Albona, -2C on Galzig, and 3C at the Galzigbahn base.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Sunny with a dusting of fresh snow to 1400m in Bormio.
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God have mercy lol. France getting hammered with rain
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Meteo Chamonix makes the following predictions for Friday then Saturday, Sunday afternoon should be intermittent sun then snow at low altitudes next week.
but not the 2.5 meters quoted above but far from a disaster if this forecast is accurate
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The sky remains cloudy throughout the day, but the precipitation is light and intermittent, especially towards the Pre-Alps. In the mountains, it snows from 1300-1500m. In the evening and the following night, the rain is more consistent. The rain-snow limit drops to 800-1000m. Stormy west wind.
Iso 0°C : 1700m
Forecast for Saturday 11 March 2023
Remaining disturbed. Regular rain towards the interior of the Alps. Around the Jura and the Pre-Alps, precipitation is weaker and more intermittent. The rain-snow limit rises to 1500-1700m or even 1200-1500m in the Haute-Savoie. The following night, the weather becomes dry again. Strong south-west wind.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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That Meteo Chamonix forecast is saying 40-60cm on Friday at 1,600m followed by another 50-70cm on Saturday. I'll be delighted if they can pull that off.
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New snow down to village level and below overnight in Saas-Fee. Bright in town, murky higher up and the high lifts are closed.
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You know it makes sense.
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| hold_my_biere wrote: |
| That Meteo Chamonix forecast is saying 40-60cm on Friday at 1,600m followed by another 50-70cm on Saturday. I'll be delighted if they can pull that off. |
https://meteo-chamonix.org/
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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A meter would be good but not great for Sunday skiing as they'll probably have to blast all day.
Anyway looking better now in the 74, perhaps a bit warm further south.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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For those interested here’s the Meteo Tarentaise forecast for tonight till Sunday
  FORECAST FOR YOUR DISTURBING EPISODE BETWEEN NEXT NIGHT AND THE END OF THE WEEKEND:  ️
marWe already had the first part of this episode between Tuesday night and this morning.
The raised cumulas are in the nails of the forecast, we rise between 35 and 50 mm depending on sectors.
It's especially the snowfall limit that was observed much higher and more sustainably than expected.
LPN went up last night to 2200/2300m in some areas and had trouble coming back down.
Nice calm today with some nice clear skies, but that will be temporary since the weather will change drastically in the next few hours!
àIndeed, the clouds will increase in number this late afternoon and evening as a disruption approaches.
Rainfall will approach the Tarantaise from 00h/01h depending on sectors.
Snow will start in disturbance at 1500/1600m next night.
These precipitation will affect us all day tomorrow, with average intensities depending on the times of the day but sometimes marked, especially at altitude.
Snow in the morning at 1200/1300m then 1100/1200m during the day, before a brief ascending from the LPN to 1700m during the following night.
Over tomorrow's day is expected in the valley, an average of 20/30mm locally 35mm.
At altitude 20/30cm snow expected above 1500/1600m.
⏺After a brief ascent of the LPN during the night from Friday to Saturday, up to 1700 locally 1800m at the highest of the redoux, we'll find an LPN at 1600/1700m on Saturday morning, always under regular and sometimes marked rainfall.
It will precipitate throughout the day on Saturday with sometimes strong intensities, especially in the early part of the day with hourly intensities 5 mm/h or 5 cm/h depending on the altitude, see more.
Snow will fall in the morning at 1500/1600m, just like in the afternoon, still with marked precipitation as well as in the evening Saturday to Sunday but with less marked intensity than the rest of the day.
Overall this day, accumulations will be important, we could raise 50mm valley, locally 60/80mm, with spikes at 90mm on the hardest affected areas.
At altitude, more than 50cm is expected above 1800m, locally 60/65cm at 1800/2000m, and close to the meter above 2500m.
auConditions will also be marked by strong winds or stormy in the mountains, especially tomorrow Friday with gusts of 50 to 70 km / h in the valley, 70/100 km / h on our stations above 1800 m, 150/170 km / h above 2500 m and gusts that could approach 200 km / h above from an altitude of 3000 / 3500 m.
Wind will still be present Saturday but to a lesser extent, 40/45km/h in valley, 60/65km/h at station, 100km/h near 3000m, W winds.
.Sunday, the weather will calm down, the sky could still remain busy with some light precipitation (LPN around 1400/1500m) at the beginning of the day before the total stop of precipitation for the rest of the day.
A new passage of snow is expected in the models for Tuesday and Wednesday (to be confirmed... ) .
️Given conditions that could 'be extreme in altitude, wind and expected large accumulations of snow, avalanche risk will become extreme! Be very careful this weekend, classified as high risk with this heavy rain-snow-windy episode...
Thank you for reading, a tracking will be launched tomorrow and updated several times throughout the day, just like for Saturday!
Romain VIVIANI from Météo Tarentaise
Map from the ARPEGE model showing the possible cumulus (not to be taken lightly)
And let's not forget the leetchi potty for those who want to join me for the project of installing weather sensors on the Tarantaise and Haute Tarantaise, the link https://www.leetchi.com/fr/c/lNLA8NVD
Our partner R’les Arcs la radio station
( www.laradiostation.fr )
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Hmm maybe we are snow magnets, verbier here we come, departure time 3pm tomorrow as planned!! Fortunately most the way is motorway apart from that dodgy bit by the French border. Just hoping we can get up to the chalet as we only have snow socks  .
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Quite concerned about the avalanche risk. We’re going next week, hoping it won’t be a week of lift closures… 
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Went to Orelle today and skied into Val Thorens, into the top of the Meribel side and down into Les Ménuires. As expected, a great deal of fresh snow up in Val Thorens and the higher slopes in Les Ménuires and Meribel. Pistes were very powdery, especially early on and became quite chopped up. Good fun if hard work - not fun for beginners. Down in Les Ménuires was very warm and slushy but conditions up high were very good and will have freshened up a lot from the latest dumping. Fingers crossed the weather cools down for those going out there over the next few weeks to maintain some of the fresh snow.
Back in Valmeinier 1800 conditions don’t appear to be very good. Car thermometer was reading +7 degrees at resort level this afternoon. Lower slopes looking very slushy and bare.
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| Quote: |
hoping it won’t be a week of lift closures
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better lift closures because of too much snow than piste closures because of too much grass
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Not a stack of snow so far, around 20 to 30cm in the French Northern Alps above 2000m. The fresh that fell lower down (around 10cm at 1400m) melted in what was an exceptionally warm Thursday yesterday.
Not a game changer so far although freshened up at high altitude.
Today it is grey and windy with some light snow above 1700m dropping during the day and continuing on Saturday with the snowline at 1400m before clearing up on Sunday afternoon with a return to snow about 900 (Jura) to 1200m (French Alps) on Monday afternoon - or higher depending on your forecast. All this with some very strong winds.
Somewhere like the Beaufortain snow trap could get 50cm today. I think the Pierra Menta ski tour race is on at the moment, so that may cause issues. Other areas 20 to 30cm.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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looks grim !
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Oh lord
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FAQ
