The All New 15/16 Weather Outlook Thread

A snowHead

@Ben E C, why? It seems to me that the high pressure is about to give way sometime during the first week of Jan, and that's been forecasted for the last few days.

A snowHead

00 looks better

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Red alert now issued for parts of Lancashire. Take care if you are in NW England right now Shocked

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?regionName=nw&from=rss&sn=C517B605-CA85-A903-4665-DD0957DEF6F0_2_NW&tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=7&lon=-3.35&lat=53.77&fcTime=1451088000

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I am now thinking, do I just bin off the holiday to tonale on the 16th? Save the spending money and lift pass and book later?

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@Piemonster You don't want to be in Trysil Norway. I've been skiing the same (very busy) three pistes all week. It's been warm, and we had a load of rain as a Xmas present to make the little snow even icier. My worst holiday ever. I thought I was being clever going to Norway and would escape another December snow drought.

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@sugardaddy, all forecast precipitation completey disappeared last night

After all it is free

The models have just pushed it out a bit further. Much higher snowfall being touted for the 4th.
What's important is that the weather is changing and temps are dropping.

I faced the same situation in California last year. There was a huge blocking high over Lake Tahoe and the forecast was always showing snow in the 7-day range. It was the most frustrating wait of my life. The snow never came and the season ended up with 92 cm for Squaw Valley. I hope this is not a "deja vu".

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latest GFS

@letsgetpiste, I don't see much forecast at all from the fourth. A suggestion of some snow on the gfs runs but it seems to be reducing by the day, at least for the PDS.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_746_ens.png

Local Maire have asked all season pass holders to avoid skiing next week to reduce traffic. As if we need persuading!

You know it makes sense.

They can sort the slopes out within 1-2 days if enough white stuff drops - not every slope and not off piste stuff but its not as though they aren't prepared - the pisteurs are all at the start gates for at the 1st sign of snow. In essence anyone going within 1-2 days of the 1st snow should be Ok for some reasonable skiing. The warm ground is the major problem though. the snow needs hard ground to stick to

Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:

A snowHead

A snowHead

Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?

Well I have to say this is the first time I have considered doing Scotland instead of Europe!

For the next week it looks like there is potential for it to be snowy at least (I shan't mention the generic Scottish weather) but its generally white!!!

The Lecht is looking quite snowy along with a some of the others.

http://m.webcam-hd.com/ski-scotland/the-lecht

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The bottom line is: a few more days of searing temperatures and big crowds. The damage to the snow will be critical. Indications would appear to be snow coming just as crowds clear off. It will be like starting all over but with any hope set up the rest of the season. If this snow does not materialize it will be very grave. .

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Some very quick Boxing Day morning thoughts, more this evening.

Looks broadly similar to how it did a few days ago.

Pattern change for the Alps looking more likely with ECM now well on board. Snow and colder temperatures arriving at the end of the year.

More following around 04/05 January and a snowy week to follow.

@snowheads68, there is no more point in looking at those charts each run at this range than looking at snowforecast. It will chop and change each time.

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@PeteMan, When the weather finally breaks, it could all change in the course of a few days (like this time last year). If it's of any comfort, our Christmas week guests have just left, saying they've had a "great week" (their first visit so they're not comparing it to what's normal).
61 lifts out of 70 are in operation. The main links are all open, so it's possible to ski around the circuit and plan itineraries between Saalbach, Hinterglemm, Leogang and Fieberbrunn. Also the main pistes down to the village are open. That's not to say that all of the pistes are in great condition all of the time, but there is enjoyable skiing to be found, especially in the morning. One of the surprises that we get that makes it different from late season skiing, is that, since the sun is low in the sky, when you get down to the lower slopes that have been in the shade, the snow is invariably better than higher up. So, when skiing the south-facing slopes during the afternoon, you go from good snow at the top, through the crud, and then back to good snow at the bottom. A good example was the run down to the bottom at Hochalm yesterday - the final steepish piste down to the road is not usually a beginner's dream, but yesterday our novice skier reckoned it was the nicest piste he'd done all day - hard-packed with a coating of light powder.
Apart from that, it's typical spring skiing conditions - below freezing last night, so the snow cannons were running. The general feeling has been one of relief that it's been so much better than last year; however the coming week could be a different story!

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@stephap, unlucky. Some of the Scandinavian resorts seem to have been doing OK (Hemsedal and Are), if a little warm. We were trying to get to Trysil for half-term but weren't able - place was booked out. May have had a lucky escape, if the weather is going to carry on as it is.

After all it is free

There's some reasonable skiing to be had. IN many places there is more snow than there was this time last year, and it looks like there's up to 10days of snowfall on the way. It's hardly a season (or an Alps ski industry) killer yet!

@davidof lol, this picture really says it all.

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If it weren't for the snowguns, about 90% of the Alps would be unskiable right now.

Looks like the tone of the thread is about to switch from snowdrought despair to avalanche teethsucking.

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@Whitegold, Laughing

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My word, wonders will never cease. A sensible and amusing post from @Whitegold!! Shocked

You know it makes sense.

Not a bad ECM tonight.

GFS chopping and changing a bit this evening, but looking at today's output as a whole it still looks likely there will be fresh snow to relatively low levels at the end of the year (5-10cms looks about right for now) in the northern Alps followed by further snowfall later that week.

This pattern change now has cross model support and it would take a major shift for this not to happen. This has also been fairly consistent so far in the model output. Some runs have had it closer to the 31st some closer to the 4th. But that broad envelope has been consistent. What it hasn't done is consistently stuck to the earlier date with the heaviest snowfall, but the very fact it hasn't has served to underline that this was an unlikely outcome. Cherry picking your favourite run and then being surprised that it doesn't hold to that is a sure way of being disappointed.

Regardless we are still five days from the end of the year so still time for the details to shift back and forth.

What's less clear is how long this shift in the pattern will last. For it to make up for the exceptional mild and dry December would take an equally exceptional cold and wet January. That is not likely. But this may over the next few weeks go some way to resetting things if it can last and we get a series of storms hitting the Alps.

What about the broader pattern? A positive NAO looks like the form horse. In that sense the pattern for the UK looks the same, but with high pressure at least weakened over Europe it should allow storms to make there way to the Alps. But keep in mind that the general pattern would be mild and wet. Good for snow at altitude.

How does CFS see January? Very mild and very wet in the northern Alps. Drier in the southern Alps (also continuing very wet in parts of the UK).

Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:

NB the CFS charts shouldn't be taken as gospel, they are more use if at all as broad indicators.

A snowHead

@Koleoptero, Sympathise. We went to Squaw in Jan 15 to visit Mr P's son who was instructing there last season. Terrible. Sat in shirtsleeves and skied mush for much of the 10 days we were there.
Now he is Vermont, also working as an instructor at a private ski club. It was 20C there yesterday....and the club had not opened! Meanwhile Squaw has already had more snow than the whole of last season.

A snowHead

I'm sat in a hotel in bourg en bresse tonight ready to do the final trip up to morillon in the morning for our first ski trip in 11 years (the kids first ever). I know it can all change, but you have given me a small glimmer of hope that we might see a little bit of snow before we leave on the 3rd. Thank you all for your fantastic updates. I've been completely addicted to this thread over the last month! X

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@nozawaonsen, just another note of thanks - this is really appreciated.

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3 to 4 deg above average hopefully still means mostly snow. Presumably January is about the coldest time of the year so snow/rain shouldn't be that borderline...

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This has been painful viewing but, hopefully the end is in site. I fly to Italy in 3 weeks, I think it's gonna be ok........just. cheers noza, your efforts are appreciated.

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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...

That hurts to read.

After all it is free

Be careful what you wish for, especially on changeover days.

@Whitegold, given that at this time last year there was much less in EK open I find that surprising.

The next week or so will be interesting. If there is no significant snowfall then the "but it's early season" arguments will start to ring hollow. We will then move on to those due to go in February half term as this will start to get anxious; especially given the hugely inflated prices that are commanded at that time.

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@Whitegold, but we don't need an average season... rolling eyes

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The All New 15/16 Weather Outlook Thread

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