 Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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p.s. i don't care that the webcams are all clearly still green... still got me excited 
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GFS for the alps looking a little bit less evangelical about the longer term cold this evening (12z) with a few of the runs (including the operational) heading above average towards the end of the month. Also perhaps a little less precipitation about than earlier runs today. Although inevitably at that distance it could easily change again.
In the shorter term looking quite a bit below average for the next week with some snow, as MoodyFFS suggests particularly in parts of Austria.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Light snow starting to fall across Alps today (now). Maybe light snow in Scottish mountains by mid/end week (UK looking quite chilly all week from this evening).
Keep calm and carry on piece by BBC/Met Office Cold(er) spell on the way....
"the latest Met Office longer term (i.e., in medium range) analysis keeps things somewhat on the cool side, but no early or widespread advent of winter weather in the true sense."
[edit: GFS 06Z keeps the Alps cold for at least the next week, after that it is still looking likely to be a cool exit from October and even raises the possibility of some quite sizeable snowfall but it's too far out to really have any confidence...  ]
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Little bit of a shift tonight. Looking Eastwards... To Japan! For those fortunate enough to be heading out to Japan this season.
Japan Meteorological Agency temperature outlook for Winter 2010/2011
Japan Meteorological Agency precipitation outlook for Winter 2010/2011
Mixed, in fairness, warmer than average in Hokkaido, average in Nagano and Niigata and average precipitation for most locations through much of winter, though of course even an average Japanese winter is a pretty good thing!
Back in the Alps, GFS 12z reinforces the cold and pushes snow into Switzerland as well as Austria.
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nozawaonsen, cheers for the J-forecast - my reading is that it doesn't look very far from average anywhere in Japan, which as you say is excellent news! Would definitely apprecite the above average precipitation zone spreading though 
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This evening's 12z GFS ensembles start to flesh out what might be happening this time next week. Temperatures across the Alps look cold running into mid week and another band of light snow comes across on Wednesday/Thursday followed by some even colder temperatures on Friday morning.
Going into next weekend it looks like it warms up (still below seasonal average though) before temperatures drop once again and further snow (possibly quite a bit) comes across on Sunday/Monday.
Back in the UK and the Sunday papers have been getting excited about the weather. As flagged up by Whitegold on another thread The Mail says Wrap up warm: Early winter snow forecast in Britain from Tuesday onwards and goes on to suggest "Big Ben could be covered in snow from Tuesday onwards as Britain braces itself for some early winter snow." Which would rather surprise me, but it is looking like some snow in Scotland mid week and it is even possible some might make it to the hills further south. ECM is pushing the cold period to roll on to the end of the month now.
The Daily Star speaks to Netweather and comes up with BIG FREEZE ON CARDS THIS WINTER
Netweather's seasonal forecast comes out this later week. But the headlines seem to be cold start to winter and extremely dry and milder from February onwards.
Finally the TWO forum flagged up the a BCC (Chinese) seasonal model. Which is interesting because it has slightly warmer anomalies in Canada and Alaska and slightly cooler one's for Japan and Europe.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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looks like Engelberg has done well so far...
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kitenski, reckon so. Largest snow accumulation has been drifting west last few days, now looking more focussed around Switzerland. GFS looks reluctant to give up below average temperatures over the Alps, but heading in that direction and looking to warm up slightly as October shifts to November.
Netweather winter forecast for UK online. Cold and dry. Bastardi maybe casting his dice on Wednesday?
[edit: and The Telegraph has some stuff about early Siberian swans apparently... ]
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Here is Joe Bastardi's Europe winter outlook.
"THE WINTER OUTLOOK FOR EUROPE
EUROPE
In 2003, the fierce heat wave centered in France was replaced by a chilly October, and when winter came, much of Europe was warmer than normal. However the area that was near normal to a bit below was close to where that heat wave was.. and then eastward through southern and southeastern Europe.
This years August heat wave, like 2003, coming off an el nino winter the year before, was over Russia and into central Europe,. October has been cold in much of this area and guess what, the winter will be most fierce from Euro-Russia into the Alps. Russian temps as much as 3C below normal for the winter are possible, 1-2 C below normal westward into the Alps. Most of northwest Europe will be near to a little below normal ( up to 1C below normal) while northern and central Scandinavia Scotland, and Ireland are near or a bit above normal.
Snowfall will be above normal across much of Europe with heaviest in the Alps into Russia, perhaps a bit below normal in northern areas.
To sum up, a severe winter looks to be on table from the Alps into Russia, but winter in Great Britain and Ireland will not be as severe as last year.
Globally. Opposite of last year, the globe will be cooling considerably and temps by Spring should be running near or below the normal. This trend will probably make 2011 the coolest year since the late 90s. Arctic sea ice will continue to recover from the 2007 lows, with the summer ice melt season next year probably returning ice to pre 2006 levels"
Snowing quite nicely across parts of the Alps this morning.
Last two GFS runs still emphasising a quite strong warm up in by the weekend followed by a second cold and snowy blast on Sunday/Monday, then warming up a bit, but despite that there seems to be a slight stubborness in FI to really push above seasonal average and take the warming seriously, even temperatures drifting back down? November is going to be interesting...
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Looking at 00z GFS temperatures look likely to rise by 5 to 10 degrees C over next few days before falling sharply on Sunday evening into Monday morning. Snow which has fallen at lower altitude in last few days will take quite a beating before the next snowfall which could be quite substantial comes on Monday morning. FI currently sees fairly consistent warming up as we go into early November with temperatures warmer than they have been recently, less wintery although around seasonal average for second half of autumn. FI looks quite unsettled (which could translate as light snow at the top of mountains and some rain lower down). Worth saying though that the models have had difficulty really locking in the move to milder weather over last few days.
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You know it makes sense.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| Looking at 00z GFS temperatures look likely to rise by 5 to 10 degrees C over next few days |
Which area are you referring to as you can get GFS for most places in the world!!
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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kitenski, a selection of ensembles from across the Alps all of which currently seem to share the same broad trend give or take. Given that we are still in autumn broad trends seem more interesting than bothering to look at what might exactly be happening here or there. So it's a bit zoomed out and looking at how autumn is shifting to winter. Hope that's ok?
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Poster: A snowHead
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Cheers, just trying to understand where you were talking about. Just heard courchevel will open on 4th December due to the heavy snow
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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kitenski, surely it's too early for them to have decided they can open early due to snow?! They've got another month to watch it all thaw and melt yet! 
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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kitenski, Hmm? I hope that's right but its seems to be a hell of a big gamble 6 weeks out?
Then again there were reports of cannons going in Austria this week so maybe they are confident that they have a base, maybe one of frozen slush, but usable nonetheless
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Following the 12z GFS 850s, in broad terms the trend across the Alps appears to remain... the same...
Warmer for next day or two then temperatures drop followed by some snow down to around 1000m.
Exactly how much is as ever hard to tell, it looks like the quantity GFS is predicting is slightly less than it was a couple of days ago, but that could easily change (looking at the general sweep I'd say slightly more East and South).
After that temperatures seem pretty set on moving towards seasonal averages, but with generally rather less haste than a day or two ago.
By the end of the month temperatures at 1500m look they would be moving around 3 or 4 degrees C. So I would imagine snow beneath 2000m would deteriorate quite a bit (?). However, by the far, far end of FI you can see both the operational and control looking at cooler runs, but that's a long way off.
Scotland incidentally follows a not dissimilar pattern though a little earlier with the temperature falling a bit sooner and rain/snow coming sooner too (tonight/tomorrow), but then as temperatures rise, perhaps sitting slightly above seasonal average going into November.
Bastardi has promised a slightly more detailed European forecast over the weekend.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| Quote: |
Just heard courchevel will open on 4th December due to the heavy snow
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Well they generally open about the first weekend in December, don't they? I think that date's been planned for some time; nowt to do with a few fllurries of snow in October with the cows still on the pastures.
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Bastardi's Europe thoughts round II:
"Some of you, especially my readers in the United Kingdom are really chafing at my less than enthusiastic winter forecast there. Sorry, I just dont believe its going to be that cold.. a bit above normal in the north, near normal in the south, and while I am sure there will be times winter comes calling, there is more danger of it being warm than cold this winter. Its not last year.
That being said, from Italy and the Alps through the Balkans and Turkey, through the Ukraine and into the south of Euro Russia, this looks to be a cold winter and one with more than normal snowfall."
He then breaks this down to "regions" so:
United Kingdom
London
Temps: minus 0.2F below normal
Precip: 90% of normal
Snowfall: normal
Glasgow
Temps: plus 0.5F above normal
Precip: below normal
Snowfall: below normal
Ireland
Dublin
Temps: plus 0.2F above normal
Precip: 90% of normal
Snowfall: below normal
France
Paris
Temps: minus 0.2F
Precip: 90% of normal
Snowfall: near or a little above normal
Spain
Madrid:
Temps: minus 0.6F
Precip: normal
Snowfall: near or a little above normal
Switzerland
Geneva
Temps: minus 1.0F
Precip: normal
Snowfall: above normal
Italy.
North
Temps: minus 1.0F
Precip: near normal
Snowfall: a bit above
Austria
Vienna
Temps: minus 1.5F
Precip: a bit above normal
Snowfall: above normal
Elsewhere looking at this evenings 12z GFS forecasts across the Alps the trend from the last two days is the same, warming for the next 24 hours, then a sharp drop followed by a fair amount of snow. The temperatures then look set to warm up quite a bit and by and large the trend is for a milder pattern to settle in...
But... this evening and yesterday evening (though not in all the runs in between) there seems to be a suggestion, in FI admittedly, that things could break down round about the 01 November and run a repeat of the wintry pattern, things could cool once more and more snow could come in... ... Then again...
In the UK, for now the mild trend after the weekend is looking more dialed in.
Looks like Hokkaido might get some snow on Tuesday too!
Finally, I really like holly berries and other signs of autumn and winter, but I reckon that their early appearance is probably more due to the season we have had rather than the one we are going to get 
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I reckon that their early appearance is probably more due to the season we have had rather than the one we are going to get
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Agreed.
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Here's a nice forecast if you happen to be in the Mount Baker Region in the Pacific North West...
(assuming snow is what you are after!)
Look like about 3 foot of snow to me!!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Well it definitely won't last but there's a nice snowy view out of my window this morning. Snow-forecast had it right, except that the FL dropped faster than they predicted.
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Heavy rain at the moment at 1600m in the Tarentaise instead of the snow that was forecast a couple of days ago. Pretty heavily clagged-in, so I can't tell what sort of altitude it's snowing at.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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stevomcd, strange, isn't it, how the FL changes so much around the mountains. We're at about 1600m and it's been snowing all day, but damp stuff, settling on grass and cars but not on the road much. Just been for a walk up to about 1800m and there's up to 5" of fairly respectable snow up there. Part of the walk downhill was on a piste which you could easily have skied down. With the fresh green vegetation, and a lot of the deciduous trees, like birches, still with some leaves, it's all very pretty. I think it's going to snow a bit all night and much of tomorrow. I have no snow tyres, or chains, so I could just have a slight problem getting too Geneva on Tuesday, when it's supposed to be very cold and freezing.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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It's just one guys opinion. Ever hopeful 
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You know it makes sense.
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| pam w wrote: |
| Part of the walk downhill was on a piste which you could easily have skied down. |
I trust you will be out with the skis tomorrow Pam & look forward to the picture
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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scotia, I'm hoping to ski Scotland this season, have rellies in Inverness which would a good base non?
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Poster: A snowHead
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MoodyFFS, yeh, wrong end of the country for me to give advice though. Give me a shout if you do decide to head up.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| Quote: |
I trust you will be out with the skis tomorrow Pam & look forward to the picture
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if I didn't have to clean the apartment and pack tomorrow, I'd be up there like a shot....
it's chucking it down at the moment. It's just possible that given my lack of foresight in having no snow tyres or chains we shall get snowed in. I am going to the garage tomorrow with a set of chains that don't fit, and some stuff to cobble them together - they'd only need to last a short while.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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pam w, pack & clean tonight 
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MoodyFFS,
Well under an hour to CairnGorm, a bit more to the Lecht, about 2-2 1/2hrs to Nevis & Glenshee (passing another ski area on the way).
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Joseph D'Aleo has put together some further thoughts on Winter 2010/2011 (D'Aleo is a pretty outspoken climate change or at least global warming sceptic, who argues we have entered a period of global cooling... so worth keeping that in mind...).
"... another cold winter for the upper Midwest, probably again heavy snows for the northwest, Rockies, Northern Plains, Midwest and northern New York and
New England with ice storm threat(s) further south. "
"...more snow and cold for Great Britain and eventually much of Europe where they are getting used to weather more like the Dalton Minimum with snowy
winters and long cold spells."
"The winter should start out cold in central and eastern United States, Western Europe and China. A cool summer start seems in the cards for South America. The late winter looks very cold in Europe and western Asia, while it retreats west in the United States. Blocking in the Arctic/North Atlantic, last year at a 60 year record level, appears to be again a major factor."
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what...snow, thanks... i've driven past the signs a number of times but never in the winter... in the winter we tend to fly up as you never know when the A9 will be closed... hopefully some bumper snow will make it worth the trip, can bundle the wife and kids to see the rellies and I can skiiiiiiiiiiiii...
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There's been heavy snow in the past few days in Japan, China, India, Europe, US East and US West.
The Northern Hemisphere Winter is off to a good start.
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Lou, call me a wimp, but the thought of getting all my ski gear out to climb 300 metres in ski boots with my skis on my shoulder, only to ski down again, then have all that wet gear to put away, is not very enticing.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Coldest night of the winter last night. -1 on the coast. (-6 inland)
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Webcams are looking pretty good across Alps and there should be some great photos once it clears later in the week!
But... despite the snow and cold weather it does rather look like the colder temperatures are about to pack their bags for while and things look like they will be warming up towards seasonal averages within a couple of days (sooner in the UK).
After that it still looks possible that there may be some sort of rain/snow around 1 November, but it is not, at least for now, looking like it will fall as snow at especially low levels. Worth keeping an eye on though.
Hopefully the warm temperatures we got last November won't come back this year... If they don't, today's snow could lay a good base at the top of the mountains!
johnboy, cold! And a good frost too!
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FAQ
its not looking good for Scotland this season though 
