 Poster: A snowHead
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xander89, we've just had a top up. Over night.
Freezing temperature is going to be a lot higher than 1700m in the next week. More like 2600m+ at times and sunny. Good practice for spring.
As to the possible colder temperatures in the second half of January I'd say "could" rather than "should."
In any case GFS FI heads cooler from 12 January.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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needs to be heading cooler from 12/01...i m out to Ste Foy........first day of skiing will be 13/01...so noza if you could organise a little dusting that would be most welcome
cheers
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Looks like the L2A glacier will be my hang out spot next week 
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Can anyone advise how this crazy warm weather next week will affect the slopes, were off to val disere for the first time next week and ive never really skied in +5 temps. Always tend to ski in January, when its not usually that warm lol......
I'm assuming even though they have great snow depths, that it will become slushy in the afternoons, sounds like not much fun....hope it doesn't spoil our first trip to the area 
Thanks Neil.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| In any case GFS FI heads cooler from 12 January. |
Do you get that from the GFS ensembles, Nozza? The one I looked at shows it getting much colder after 11/12 Jan (and has a nice precipitation spike too - here's hoping!).
It's still looking very cold at night though, eh? Clear skies I guess.
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neilkav, it'll be fine. the very lowest slopes may become slushy mid afternoon, or icy as the sun drops below the mountains and the temps drop.....
If it has been slushy the day before and frozen overnight then head to the groomed slopes and follow the sun, as it will soften nicely 
It's not crazy warm tbh, I've skied in +20 degrees in spring and it's been still enjoyable.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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kitenski, Callum001,
Thanks both, heres looking forward to a smashing panda tan!!!
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neilkav, don't worry, stay high, enjoy the sun, download in a lift. The pistes will be in great shape and the queues should have disappeared.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
xander89, we've just had a top up. Over night.
Freezing temperature is going to be a lot higher than 1700m in the next week. More like 2600m+ at times and sunny. Good practice for spring.
As to the possible colder temperatures in the second half of January I'd say "could" rather than "should."
In any case GFS FI heads cooler from 12 January. |
yer i saw the freezing level was going to be 2.5k+ but just in terms of actual temps its hovering around 0-2c @ 1.7k so i was talking not so much about the actual freezing alt just in terms of how cold it would be. But thanks for the info, it looks like the temps should drop as you said around the 12th.
Where abouts are you based noza?
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Having only skiied in March for most of the past few years, worrying over temperatures in the mid-to-high single figures for a week is a bit silly.
If it were mid-single figures at night then you might want to worry about losing snow, but in the day (short January days at that) it'll be fine - indeed better than fine - nice...
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Happy new yearnozawaonsen,
Are there any crumbs of hope in FI ? I've had a look and it looks there is not much agreement between the models two weeks away, but the blocking high might help things in Austria hopefully in FI.
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You know it makes sense.
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Warming up quite a bit by the start of next week and withe the sunshine should be very pleasant. There's a pretty strong signal from this evening's GFS for cooler temperatures by the end of next week.
As ishay says it's worth remembering we are in early January so the sun doesn't get that high which means that the days are shorter and the angle of the sun means the heat is less direct than it will be come spring so warmer days and sun have less impact than they will in spring.
All the same there should be some good terrace weather and with bella figura in mind well worth practicing a few moves to make sure you look your best.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| Quote: |
with bella figura in mind well worth practicing a few moves to make sure you look your best.
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like removing sunnies, flicking hair back, Miss Piggy stylee, replacing sunnies and looking round to see who's watching?
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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I know this is mainly a European weather discussion but I wonder if any of the gurus have an idea what is happening in Hokkaido trend wise. I know it is snowing there, as per normal for this time of year, but I am wondering if there are any patterns developing for January. I have observed that over the last 3 weeks the forecast snow from many different sources varies. This also varies to that measured as fallen at resort. Normally a bit more. The thing I haven't seen yet are the 30 cm+ dumps that have been reported in other years. The gentle supply from the Siberian sea effect snow is still there but no regular super-dumps. Any opinions out there?????? 
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From salzburg lawine "By tomorrow morning, about 10 cm of new fallen snow is anticipated. Over the course of the day, brisk northwesterly winds will come up. Temperature at 2000 m: minus 4 to minus 1 degree; at 3000 m: minus 6 degrees.
Tomorrow, Friday, gloomy and foggy, accompanied by repeated snowfall amidst temperatures of about minus 3 degrees at 2000 m (snowfall level at 1200 m). Stormy northwesterly winds above the tree line. By Saturday morning, about 30 cm of fresh fallen snow is expected. Caution: On Saturday, heavy snowfall is anticipated, as much as a half-to-three quarters of a meter, most of which will fall in the northern barrier zones. Storm strength winds and minus 3 degrees at 2000 m will accompany it, making it not overly cold."
that's up to 1m over fri/sat, though snowline may be hovering above valleys.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Like I mentioned the snow on the ground compared to forecast tends to be more when compared retrospectively to the forecast. The snowfall you describe is the kind of snowfall I would expect every now and then (after weather watching the last few seasons). I take it that windchill will depress those temperatures further. We are headed out there on the 10th so are hoping for some classic conditions. I guess January is a good month potentially???
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Hearnig forecasts of 30-60cm for parts of Tirol over the weekend...
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snorkyvandyke, check the Japan threads!
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snorkyvandyke, it's snowed pretty heavily this December in Hokkaido. Above average I reckon. January is usually where the really strong snowfall kicks in.
As for forecasting snow fall very accurately, it is very difficult to do. You simply cannot predict in advance snowfall to the cm (though this doesn't prevent many websites from doing so). It gets more complicated when you recognise that measuring snowfall accurately is also very complex. And often subject to all sorts of biases. So trying to compare the two is pretty fraught.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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If I read the GFS and ECM correctly looks like a shift to colder weather from around the 11th Jan onwards?? For those that wished the cold would return, be careful what you wish for, some GFS runs going VERY cold!
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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I for one would happily eschew the kind of temps we got round here last February in favour of a bit of slush underfoot...
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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kitenski, how cold are we talking? I know it's still 7 days out but what are the models saying temperature and precipitation wise?
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You know it makes sense.
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| kitenski wrote: |
| If I read the GFS and ECM correctly looks like a shift to colder weather from around the 11th Jan onwards?? For those that wished the cold would return, be careful what you wish for, some GFS runs going VERY cold! |
In FI a couple runs ago it was hovering around -16C across the alps (at resort level) 
Weather is a beautiful thing, one week it's almost spring like with people getting teary eyed worrying about all the snow melting, and the next (let's say FI is correct for now) is positively Arctic almost! Fascinating.
PS: interesting piece Noz
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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nozawaonsen, thanks for the link, very interesting and it now makes sense.
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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nozawaonsen, I love that photo you posted.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| Quote: |
I for one would happily eschew the kind of temps we got round here last February in favour of a bit of slush underfoot...
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+1
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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This is quite interesting. Remember that normally in winter the polar vortex is a solid mass of low pressure sat atop the pole. But in this evening's 18z following the sudden warming of the stratosphere it gets ripped apart...
And replaced by high pressure leaving the vortex in pieces (Three or four purple pieces in this chart of the northern hemisphere).
And cold weather flows south.
All FI at this stage, but colder weather in the second half of the month starting to look increasingly likely.
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nozawaonsen, what does "FI" mean?
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andy from embsay, the further out the models go the more unreliable they become. FI (Fantasy Island) just means it is too far out to take it very seriously.
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Ripping apart the polar vortex sounds very Doctor Who.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Indeed! And here's how it looks in this morning's 00z Ensembles for the Arlberg. Both the control and op run going very cold (across the Alps) from mid month.
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noza, but does it bring much precip with it normally?
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FAQ
stupid weather ! I love sunny days for skiing but April temperatures in January is a bit much ! 
some how i think that is not going to happen oh well better pack the sun screen and shades rather then the extra thermals 
either way there is loads of snow on the ground in the Alps so skiing over the next few weeks should remain excellent just does not look like much off piste will be available 