boredsurfin, currently looks like it might get slightly more settled by next week... Still looking rather on the cool side, but maybe less wet on the French side of the Alps than it will be further east. Nevertheless I wouldn't be counting on blue skies at this stage... Could change though!
"ENSO neutral conditions are expected to continue into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011."
(and whilst a "majority of the ENSO models, and all three multi-model outlooks, predict ENSO-neutral conditions (Niño-3.4 SST anomalies between -0.5C and +0.5C) to continue into early 2012" both CFS models see it shifting into La Nina conditions later in Autumn).
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Rather guardedly... Continues to look slightly better in western Alps from next week...
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
IRI (International Research Institute for Climate and Society) have updated their seasonal probability forecasts and now include early winter. Their assessment is that a colder start to winter than average across much of Europe including the Alps is the strongest probability. Precipitation would likely be average.
Meanwhile looks like more snow for Austrian glaciers over the next few days particularly Saturday. Temperatures looking closer to average for time of year in the Alps from middle of next week.
"Neutral ENSO conditions continue to prevail across the tropical Pacific Ocean. Over the past two weeks most atmospheric and oceanic indicators of ENSO have remained close to normal. There are currently no precursors present for a La Niña or El Niño event to develop, and the majority of international climate model forecasts of ENSO show that neutral conditions are likely to continue for the remainder of the southern winter and spring."
And some coverage on the snow in the Alps earlier this week.
ECM has also been moving towards a slightly more La Nina flavoured outlook for winter. Still a number (majority?) of the ensembles favouring neutral, but certainly looking more negative than it was in June which you can see toggling between the June and July forecast on the left.
2010 (very cold) and 2007 (very mild) are quite a contrast. But noticeable that Scotland was close to average in 2009 compared to the slightly cooler in the south in and in 2006 when it was milder than average in much of Scotland it was actually slightly cooler than average in the far south.
As for the coming winter, obviously we've still got so terribly long to go, but there are some suggestions (very low confidence indeed) that there might be another cooler start to winter. You'd need to see that pattern repeating itself regularly over the coming months to have any faith in it.
In the meantime looks like more cold and wet weather overnight in the eastern Alps. The Hintertux glacier should get a fair amount of fresh snow. Temperatures start moving up towards seasonal average during the week, but it still looks quite unsettled in the eastern Alps, more chance of blue skies in the west.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
CFS meanwhile continues to see a cold start to winter across most of Europe, but is tentatively prolonging it and perhaps not looking quite as dry as it was this time last month. More on that later.
Last edited by You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net. on Wed 3-08-11 22:39; edited 1 time in total
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Over the second half of July CFS has strengthened the probability of a colder start to winter across Europe.
More recently it has also thrown up a different pattern for the second half of winter suggesting the cold might continue into early spring. That pattern for later winter and spring is however in contrast to what it was suggesting earlier in the month, so at this stage I'd argue that this just suggests there is no clear pattern at this stage (and given how far off it is that is hardly a surprise).
But consistency continuing to develop around a colder than average start to winter from CFS (LRF, pinch of salt, etc, etc, etc...).
Pre season (October, November, December).
Scotland- Colder than average, drier than average precipitation.
Western Alps - Colder than average, drier than average split with average precipitation.
Eastern Alps - Colder than average, drier than average just ahead of average precipitation.
Southern French Alps/North East Italy - Colder than average, drier than average just ahead of average precipitation.
Early Winter (November, December, January).
Scotland - Colder than average and average precipitation.
Western Alps - Colder than average, average precipitation.
Eastern Alps - Colder than average, average precipitation.
Southern French Alps/North East Italy - Colder than average, average precipitation.
Winter (December, January, February).
Scotland - Colder than average, average precipitation.
Western Alps - Colder than average, average precipitation.
Eastern Alps - Colder than average, average precipitation.
Southern French Alps/North East Italy - Colder than average, average precipitation.
Late Winter (January, February, March)
Scotland - Warmer than average, wetter than average.
Western Alps - Warmer than average ahead of colder than average temperatures, average precipitation.
Eastern Alps - Warmer than average split with colder than average temperatures, drier than average.
Southern French Alps/North East Italy - Warmer than average, drier than average.
Early Spring (February, March, April)
Scotland - Average temperatures ahead of warmer than average, wetter than average.
Western Alps - Warmer than average just ahead of colder than average, average precipitation.
Eastern Alps - Warmer than average just ahead of colder than average, drier or average precipitation.
Southern French Alps/North East Italy - Warmer than average, drier than average.
"The majority of international climate model forecasts of ENSO show that neutral conditions are likely to continue for the remainder of the southern winter and into spring with the chances of an El Niño developing now considered unlikely. In fact, more models are now predicting further cooling over the coming season."
- Third coldest in last thirty years.
- In parts of Tirol and Vorarlberg July was colder than June.
- Rainfall was more mixed, much higher than average in some places, but again very wet in parts of western Austria.
- The colder weather and snowfall in July provided some relief for the glaciers (or at least will have reduced the melt, but this won't have done much to offset the warmer second half of winter and particularly spring which meant the glaciers will have had less snow and ice to melt in the first place).
August has started off slightly better, but by middle of next week it is looking like it could be pretty cold spell across the Alps again.
- Eastern parts of France saw temperatures between -2.0 and -2.5C below average.
- Parts of the Pyrenees and the east and south east saw more than double the normal rainfall for July.
Touches on winter (1m18s), "start of winter... cold, very cold, and dry."
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Some cool temperatures for August overnight in the Alps at the start of the next week. Looks like it could also be quite clear for much of the Alps, but further east could provide a bit more snow for the Hintertux glacier.
Looking at ENSO Klaus Wolter continues to see a likely return to La Nina conditions in the next few months:
"I believe the odds for this are still better than 50/50. If history ends up repeating itself, the return of La Niña should happen within about two to three months."
Meanwhile LaChaineMeteo have updated their winter thoughts a little further:
- November cold, but dry, snowfall coming late this year except for the Mediterranean Mountains.
- Colder to the north and east of France in December, possibly quite mild in much of France, but one can't exclude "l'arrivée brutale de la neige" and cold from the east.
- January predominantly cold with snow falling to low lying areas.
Obviously all a long way off, but "...it's all right." (3m.04s)
"ENSO-neutral is expected to continue into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011, with ENSO-neutral or La Niña equally likely thereafter."
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Some cooler weather looks likely in the Alps again next Monday after a warmer spell over the weekend, accompanied by heavy rain in the east. Snow line around 2800m? So should top up the glaciers.
Also worth noting that from about that time (mid August) the 30 year mean temperatures begin their slow descent towards winter...
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
NASA have updated their experimental seasonal forecast.
- December January February would see average temperatures and precipitation for the Alps.
- Fair potential for northern blocking over same period.
[last month the NASA forecast suggested a cold anomaly over the Alps for November-December-January, unclear whether it would still be thus month as the forecast period has moved forward].
Solar activity went through an upswing at the end of July, since then it has been dropping off quite rapidly (depending how you count it yesterday was spotless).
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
nozawaonsen, thanks again, keep it going!
By next weekend we will be two months past the NH summer solstice and I wondered about a wee 'guess the first snowfall' competition? Just to build the excitement and anticipation!
Nothing serious, just pick a calendar week and a country. We can decide on the criteria for the 'snowfall' my suggestion would be the first one that covers a resort and leaves it white down to base station, even if it all melts by afternoon?
Thoughts and suggestions anyone?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Just over two weeks of summer left and JAMSTEC have issued their August update for their Winter (December-January-February) forecast...
Elsewhere La Meteo have also updated their seasonal forecast.
November
- Average temperatures for the Alps, most rainfall near the Mediterranean.
December
- Average temperatures, dry in general, wetter nearer the Mediterranean.
January
- Mild temperatures, weak rainfall, though not extremely dry.
Shorter term the prospect of cooler weather in the Alps at the start of next week has faded somewhat over the last few days and for now at least much of the rest of August looks like it will be at or a bit above seasonal temperatures.
[the blog is being updated about twice a day at present].
CFS meanwhile continues to see a cold winter (and for the time being a cool spring) over the Alps (slightly less clear cut for the UK). Still quite dry, especially so in the Southern Alps. More on that later...
Incidentally solar activity having been very active (at least relatively speaking, for SC 24) at the start of the month has plummeted over the last week or so with a spotless day today (depending how you count it the last three have been spotless too).
And here are several interesting pieces in Climate Watch on the weather patterns in 2010 and in particular the influence of Arctic Oscillation.
This is how the CFS seasonal probability forecast saw winter and spring 2011/12 during the first half of August...
- strengthening probability of a colder start to winter across Europe. Though in later runs the core of cold was on the continent with much of the UK starting to show indications of a mild winter.
- increasingly dry in the Southern Alps throughout winter and spring.
- colder weather reaching throughout winter in the Alps.
- Spring in general looking close to average for temperatures.
Consistency continuing to develop around a colder than average start to winter from CFS (LRF, pinch of salt, etc, etc, etc...).
Pre season (October, November, December).
Scotland- Colder than average (though this started to unpick in later runs trending towards warmer), drier than average precipitation.
Western Alps - Colder than average, average precipitation, just ahead of drier than average.
Eastern Alps - Colder than average, drier than average just ahead of average precipitation.
Southern French Alps/North East Italy - Colder than average, drier than average.
Early Winter (November, December, January).
Scotland - Colder than average (again warmer in the later runs) and drier than average.
Western Alps - Colder than average, average precipitation.
Eastern Alps - Colder than average, drier than average ahead of average precipitation.
Southern French Alps/North East Italy - Colder than average, drier than average.
Winter (December, January, February).
Scotland - Colder than average, average precipitation.
Western Alps - Colder than average, average precipitation.
Eastern Alps - Colder than average, average precipitation ahead of wetter than average.
Southern French Alps/North East Italy - Colder than average, drier than average.
Late Winter (January, February, March)
Scotland - Warmer than average in later runs, colder in earlier runs, average precipitation.
Western Alps - Average temperatures, average precipitation.
Eastern Alps - Average ahead of colder than average temperatures, average precipitation.
Southern French Alps/North East Italy - Average precipitation, drier than average.
Early Spring (February, March, April)
Scotland - Warmer than average temperatures, average precipitation.
Western Alps - Average temperatures, average precipitation.
Eastern Alps - Average temperatures, average precipitation.
Southern French Alps/North East Italy - Average temperature, drier than average.
Spring (March, April, May)
Scotland - Warmer than average temperatures, average precipitation.
Western Alps - Average temperatures, average precipitation.
Eastern Alps - Average temperatures, average precipitation.
Southern French Alps/North East Italy - Average temperature, average precipitation.
Incidentally the map below from San Francisco State University clearly shows the southern jet stream curving down to the south pole then racing up towards New Zealand last Sunday.
IRI have updated their seasonal forecasts. And rather like the recent CFS probability forecasts (though not to quite the same extent) they see a higher probability of a colder start to winter over the Alps particularly November and December. January looks closer to average. Precipitation looks average throughout. The cold anchored to the continent rather than reaching up to the UK.
- "Despite this cooling, current indicators remain well short of the strong La Niña conditions evident at the equivalent time last year."
- "While no models suggest El Niño conditions are likely, two of the eight models predict further cooling over the coming season and into the southern summer."
But lest we forget El Niño here is the late Chris Farley with an explanation.
- "... struggling to come up with adjectives that do this storm justice. It's not uncommon to get big snowfalls from time to time at resorts here and there. The share scale and breadth of this event is unprecedented. Not one ski hill has missed out. Storm snow totals range from 20cm to 120cm... now is the hour, do whatever you can to partake in the mass powder piggery that is coming to a hill near you."
- "The biggest snowfall in 50 years graced Queenstown and isolated the resort from every entry point including air for 3 days."
- "The long range is looking pretty nice as the high dominates the weather right over the country through to at least the middle of next week."
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
nozawaonsen, What did the CFS seasonal probability forecast say at the same time last year for the 2010/2011 season? Just interested to see if they were any where near right.
After all it is free
After all it is free
FraserP, as it happens CFS was suggesting a cold start to winter for the Alps and a dry winter. A few points to consider though...
- whilst there might be some potential to identify broad trends, they are unlikely to identify detail.
- any LRF is going to be pretty low confidence, the more so the further out.
- if you have a 40/30/30 split although 40% is the most probable of the three there is still a 60% probability it won't be that. Obviously that changes once you get over 50% for one outcome.
Both CFS and the Beijing Climate Centre see high pressure anomalies in winter in the Atlantic rather than the northern blocking we had at the start of last winter. If this were to come about it would reduce the likelihood of a very cold winter in the UK. But that could certainly all change especially given we are still in August!
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
NOAA have had a La Nina watch in place for a couple of weeks now.
"El Niño or La Niña Watch: Issued when conditions are favorable for the development of El Niño or La Niña conditions within the next six months."
And you can see from BOM how close we are to dropping below -0.5C and how the cooling has set in since the start of July.
If you toggle back and forth you can also see how the Met Office forecast has shifted quite substantially towards a La Nina type outlook in comparison with the last few months.
Time to pull some of this together and see what the straws in the wind are for winter... (remembering not to take this very seriously).
Colder than average winter for the Alps?
- CFS has been consistently strengthening the probability for a colder winter, particularly early on.
- Having been consistent over the last few months in seeing a colder than average winter across Europe JAMSTEC's latest update reduced the likelihood, though still narrowly saw it as cool.
- NASA suggested a cold anomaly over the Alps in early winter, but did not see this extending into later winter in its August update.
- IRI has been suggesting a higher probability for a colder winter over the Alps in its las two monthly updates.
Winter blocking? (cutting off the Atlantic, bringing cold in from the north and east).
- CFS has moved away from northern blocking with high pressure anomalies further south in the Atlantic.
- Similarly Beijing Climate Centre sees high pressure anomalies further south than last December.
- NASA see some northern blocking over winter.
[worth saying that the northern blocking pattern for early last winter started really becoming apparent towards the end of September].
Drier than average winter?
- CFS has largely been shifting back and forth between drier and average for the Alps. A stronger signal for drier weather to the east and even more so to the south.
- JAMSTEC has precipitation on the drier side of average. Though drier in the southern Alps.
- IRI sees average.
- NASA sees average.
Winter in the UK?
- CFS continues to swing back and forth between colder and warmer - so no clear signal. Possibly a slightly higher chance of a colder start.
- JAMSTEC has shifted from its colder outlook, now seeing it between cool and average (cooler in the north and west)
- IRI sees average.
- NASA sees average.
Obviously still far too off in the distance for any confidence, but the general trends seem to suggest a higher chance of colder start to winter over the Alps, quite possibly drier than average (though average conditions have also been favoured at times). As we move through autumn it will be interesting to see if this pattern is sustained and strengthens or whether it shifts.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
Current hot weather over the Alps looks set to continue for much of the rest of August (likely dropping closer to average in the last couple of days of the month). This looks like it will offset the cold July temperatures giving a summer which will end up ranging somewhere between average and warmer than average (warmer relatively further east).
Meanwhile for winter JAMSTEC suggests:
"The La Nina will also help to reduce the surface temperature over many parts of the globe except the northern Eurasia and southern USA in following seasons. Wet/flooding condition will be realized in Indonesia, India, the eastern Africa. A fall rain (shurin) front will be active in eastern China, Korea and western Japan."
The Alps is roughly the diving line in Europe, north of this and east currently looking warmer than normal for winter in the JAMSTEC model, the Alps themselves look slightly cooler.
Japan and the western and north western US (California round to PNW and Alaska) would be colder than normal.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
- A majority of the ENSO models, and all three multi-model outlooks, predict ENSO-neutral conditions (Niño-3.4 SST anomalies between -0.5C and +0.5C ) to continue into early 2012.
- However, an increasing number of models predict the onset of La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011.
"As we head deeper into autumn, however, the influence of the NAO will likely become more predominant, and a return to below-normal temperatures is likely sometime in November. While it is still quite early to make confident winter predictions, an initial analysis suggests that a winter closer to what was observed in 2008-09 might be in the offing. It may not be as severe as the last two winters."
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
And there you go.
We've dropped below -0.5 to -0.56 which puts things squarely in La Nina territory. If it stays like this for a month and is forecast to stay like this for the next three then a La Nina episode will be declared.
Meanwhile ZAMG is predicting a slightly above average temperature for Autumn for the Eastern Alps with the warmer than average temperatures expected at the start of Autumn and closer to average temperatures for October and November.
"... As we near the end of fall, however, we feel that there are increasing chances for below-normal temperatures across the central and eastern US, as atmospheric blocking re-emerges.”
ZAMG meanwhile suggesting this August could be one of the hottest on record in Austria after a cool Juky. The terrific weather looks set to continue through tomorrow before it breaks down on Saturday.
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
A good piece on Wasatch Weather Weenies giving some context to potential La Nina impacts for winter in the US.
The points he makes about the lack of clear correlation between ENSO conditions and weather are even more the case in Europe.
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
I'd argue that the cold blast on Saturday was really the first brief ripple of the coming winter reaching towards us rather than the final echoes of the past winter now long gone. Record high temperatures were being set in parts of Austria on Friday before temperatures tumbled on Saturday, as much as 28C in places, bringing 5cm of fresh snow above 2000m to parts of the Alps. More seasonal warmth quickly replaced Saturday's cold ( though not quite as warm as last week) and melted most of the snow.
Here's a piece from La Chaine Meteo on summer in France.
"Au niveau des températures, c’est finalement un été normal, assez chaud même dans l'est."
Overall the exceptional cold of July balanced out by hotter weather in June and August, leaving Summer temperatures for France just a little above normal. But precipitation generally quite a bit higher.
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
By and large the CFS probability forecasts over the past fortnight have shown a consistent pattern for a colder than average winter and warmer than average spring in the Alps. But a higher probability for drier conditions in both seasons. For the UK the pattern is less consistent, but has over the last two weeks trended towards a cooler start to winter.
Of course this is only the probability and an indication of which of three states (colder/drier, generally average, warmer/wetter) the model sees as most likely.
As we get closer the anomaly may also be worth looking at (these may not always equate with the probability). NOAA provides various charts for the CFS forecasts. Meteociel also collates them in more detailed table and chart form (focussed on France), but you can see further west (and north) as well. Clearly they suffer from the same difficulties of all long range models. And the further out you are the more the detail will shift and slide back and forth.
Broadly speaking these seem to suggest a cold November and December in the Alps, colder and drier in the east and cold returning in February. But plenty of potential to change as we head through autumn!
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
ENSO stays in La Nina territory for a second week (just) at -0.54.
On a completely unrelated note I saw a sign today explaining that it cost about 3 euros to produce 1 cubic metre of snow. And it required a cubic metre of water to produce 2.3 cubic metres of snow.
nozawaonsen, The snowmakers lake in Montalbert has lots of info signs around it telling the how whys etc This one caught my eye.
Quote:
The snowmakers can work automatically once the temp is below +2.5c
and each snowmaker can make 30 cubic meters of snow an hour using 15 cubic meters of water per hour
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Looks roughly the same water to snow (2:1), not sure if the difference is technical or just rounding (the one I saw was by a reservoir at the top of Reiteralm).
Meanwhile TWO autumn forecast http://theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/uk-seasonal-weather-forecast out suggesting a "wintry sting" in the tail and "may be a decent start to the Scottish ski season again." And wraps it with a comment that there seems to be little sign of a return to the mid 90s and early 21st century pattern of warm summers and mild winters.
Le Boss (TV Meteo) seeing a lot of blocking over winter. Cold and often dry, blocking breaking in January before high pressure, cold and sun returns for February.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
So with the end of summer this is how the CFS seasonal probability forecast saw winter and spring 2011/12 during the second half of August...
- strengthening probability of a colder start to winter across the whole of Europe.
- drier than average conditions likely in the Alps throughout winter.
- colder weather reaching up until the end of winter and spring in the Alps, less clear that it will last beyond December in the UK.
- Spring looking warmer than average across Europe.
Consistency continues to build around a colder than average start to winter from CFS, a pattern that the model has been developing since spring.
In some ways the pattern; cold start, dry and warm spring, has some similarity to last season. That said last year had record breaking cold in December and record warmth and dryness in spring. Just because models are suggesting a higher probability of a colder start, warmer spring and dry conditions does not necessarily mean that last seasons extremes will be replicated.
Pre season (October, November, December).
Scotland- Colder than average, drier than average precipitation.
Western Alps - Colder than average, average precipitation.
Eastern Alps - Colder than average, average precipitation.
Southern French Alps/North East Italy - Colder than average, drier than average.
Early Winter (November, December, January).
Scotland - Colder than average, wetter than average.
Western Alps - Colder than average, split between average precipitation and drier than average.
Eastern Alps - Colder than average, split between average precipitation and drier than average.
Southern French Alps/North East Italy - Colder than average, drier than average.
Winter (December, January, February).
Scotland - Colder than average split with warmer than average, wetter than average precipitation.
Western Alps - Colder than average, drier than average precipitation.
Eastern Alps - Colder than average, drier than average precipitation.
Southern French Alps/North East Italy - Colder than average, drier than average.
Late Winter (January, February, March)
Scotland - Warmer than average, average or wetter than average precipitation.
Western Alps - Average temperatures, drier than average precipitation.
Eastern Alps - Average just ahead of colder than average temperatures, drier than average precipitation.
Southern French Alps/North East Italy - Average precipitation, drier than average.
Early Spring (February, March, April)
Scotland - Warmer than average temperatures, wetter than average precipitation.
Western Alps - Average or warmer than average temperatures, drier than average.
Eastern Alps - Average or warmer than average temperatures, drier than average.
Southern French Alps/North East Italy - Average temperature, drier than average.
Spring (March, April, May)
Scotland - Warmer than average temperatures, average precipitation.
Western Alps - Warmer than average temperatures, average precipitation.
Eastern Alps - Warmer than average temperatures, average precipitation.
Southern French Alps/North East Italy - Warmer than average temperature, no clear indication.
After all it is free
After all it is free
So is a cold, dry winter (were that to come about) necessarily a bad thing? It all rather depends...
Certainly last winter started cold and continued dry, warming through winter into spring (and remaining very dry!).
Here are some ZAMG stats for St Anton in the Arlberg for 10/11.
December 2010. -1.2C below average. 47% of average rainfall.
January 2011. +1.3C above average. 46% of average rainfall.
February 2011. +3.4C above average. 08% of average rainfall. [!!]
March 2011. +2.4C above average. 24% of average rainfall. [!]
April 2011. +4.1C above average. 53% of average rainfall.
So using St Anton as an example you can see the cold start (it was colder elsewhere in the Alps) and that through out the season rainfall rarely got above 50% and even went as low as 8% during February.
But some good recent seasons have also had relatively dry and cold winters. Here is 2005/2006.
December 2005. -1.4C below average. 74% of average rainfall.
January 2006. -3.5C below average. 36% of average rainfall.
February 2006. -0.5C below average. 77% of average rainfall.
March 2006. -0.4C below average. 247% of average rainfall. [!!]
April 2006. +1.4 above average. 88% of average rainfall.
Bar the incredible March snowfall it was actually a relatively dry (though cold) season.
2006/2007 was certainly not good. But heat was a key issue then (as well as dryness for much of the season).
December 2006. +2.5C above average. 29% of average rainfall.
January 2007. +5.4C above average. 117% of average rainfall.
February 2007. +3.3C above average. 67% of average rainfall.
March 2007. +2.3C above average. [no rainfall figure]
April 2007. +6.0 above average. 19% of average rainfall.
2007/2008 was (from memory) back on track.
December 2007. -0.2C below average. 83% of average rainfall.
January 2008. +2.8C above average. 41% of average rainfall.
February 2008. +2.5C above average. 21% of average rainfall.
March 2008. -0.3C below average. 148% of average rainfall. [!]
April 2008. 0C average. 179% of average rainfall. [!]
Cool start, but winter was dry and relatively warm. A strong finish to the season though.
2008/2009 another cold, dry start, which continued throughout winter.
December 2008. -3.8C below average. 47% of average rainfall.
January 2009. -1.3C below average. 39% of average rainfall.
February 2009. -0.5C below average. 41% of average rainfall.
March 2009. -0.3C below average. 86% of average rainfall.
April 2009. +2.6 above average. 27% of average rainfall.
And for completeness 2009/2010.
December 2009. -0.2C below average. 78% of average rainfall.
January 2010. -1.0C below average. 11% of average rainfall. [!!]
February 2010. -0.5C above average. 22% of average rainfall. [!!]
March 2010. -0.4C below average. 50% of average rainfall.
April 2010. +1.5 above average. 77% of average rainfall.
So cold for winter, but really quite dry.
Obviously that's just a set of figures for St Anton and doesn't necessarily replicate the whole Alps. But you can see how both the last two bad seasons 2010/11 and 2006/07 were marked by and large by not just dryness, but also warmth (despite the very cold start to 2010). And of course when it snows during the month can also be crucial (eg if the only precipitation comes during a warm spell that will be doubly damaging!).
Still all to play for...
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
All the ensembles now suggesting a steep drop through September and at least a weak La Nina event over winter. The mean now suggesting a stronger La Nina event than last year and a number of the runs being much more radical than that. Interesting. Looks quite a bold forecast to me. But worth keeping an eye on.
FAQ
Poster: A snowHead
