 Poster: A snowHead
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
According to the TWO forum "The Met Office's seasonal forecast for winter 2010/11 (which of course it no longer makes public) is that the UK is likely to experience average to above average temperatures with average to below average precipitation."
The CFS seasonal forecasts have been flip flopping over the UK forecast over the last few months, but are currently suggesting a similar forecast ie average to above average temperatures and below average precipitation (though they have also had it colder than average pretty recently too...).
Joe Bastardi also had a similar-ish suggestion last month "I don't think Great Britain is as cold as last year, more or less a normal winter. But this will be a rough winter in areas in central and eastern Europe, the interior part of the continent. That is a thumbnail sketch, a rough look. One more thing... precipitation will be a bit below normal for much of Europe this winter."
Netweather had the UK colder, but also drier.
There does however seem to be a general consensus amongst the LRF's that continental Europe will see a colder and drier than average early winter...
Anyway all of this needs to be taken with a fair dose of salt! It will be interesting to see what turns up.
In the shorter term there is some suggestion that something quite cold might happen in the second half of October (some of the more outlying runs even brought light snow to the hills in the north of England before the end if the month...). But it's all a bit flirty at the moment.
Anyhow here is the early October update of the TWO Christmas forecast!
Forecast headline - Christmas 2010: Higher snow risk
Our fourth Christmas 2010 forecast update brings suggests another slight increase in the chance of snow falling on Christmas day in parts of the country. We think there's a significant probability of the UK being under a cold northerly air stream on Christmas day bringing the risk of snow showers, particularly in the north.
Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day
North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 35% - 45% (risk increases to 45% further north)
South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 20% - 30% (risk increases to 30% further north)
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
|
anything has to be better than the low grey cloud that has sat on North East england this weekend
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
|
robboj, watch and see if the other runs come into agreement closer to the time....
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
|
Seems to be quite a consensus building over last day or two about a rather cold spell in the Alps over the weekend... (and in the UK for that matter). Maybe even a little snow down to the valleys in parts of the Alps? After that the ensembles are flapping all over the place! But worth keeping an eye on
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
robboj, oooh people still using my GFS grabber from last season... just noticed there are over 1,800 grabs in the folder.... oops 
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
MoodyFFS, i have it saved as my favourites! Could you possibly make one for some resorts that i request to you? pretty please?
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
Ricklovesthepowder, sure... no worries... i might delete some of the historic stuff though... 110mb of grabs in the folder 
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oh and in case people don't know what I am going on about... you are able to grab a screenshot of the latest GFS run here - this means that when you are talking about a specific run it doesn't change with time as it would with a live link to the graph
|
|
|
|
|
|
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
|
MoodyFFS, Yep, sure am, I saved it as a favourite also! 
|
|
|
|
|
|
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
|
|
nozawaonsen, Agreed, consensus pretty good on the 18Z out to T168, even heading out into FI there's not as much spaghetti as you might expect on the cusp of major seasonal change?
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
robboj, it's been playing round with the idea of another blast of cold in FI for a while, but GFS 12z for example flips it right over and has 10C rather than -5C for 850hPa. Hey ho.
|
|
|
|
|
|
You know it makes sense.
|
|
It's only October, snow often comes & goes this time of the Year
|
|
|
|
|
|
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
|
|
kitenski, oooooh you spoilsport!
|
|
|
|
|
|
Poster: A snowHead
|
|
kitenski, of course. But I do rather enjoy watching the gradual approach of winter in the mountains . The colours of the autumn leaves, giving way as belts of cold slowly come over. The snow line moving down the mountain. Ebbing and flowing with each snowfall, melting away, then once more. Until it stays and the valleys are white and winter has arrived in force. It's a splendid time of year.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
|
MoodyFFS, cheers, if I give you the postcodes of some places, all in the uk could you do it that way?
Last edited by Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person on Tue 12-10-10 23:08; edited 1 time in total
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
|
Ricklovesthepowder, sure - it only works for full long and at co-ords
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
|
Brilliant, here you go. M28 2ED, DG7 2ET, CA9 3DD, PH22 1RB, Also glencoe, Nevis ski resorts if possible. Thanks so much!!!
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
No probs, thanks very much. It is just for personal use mainly so I won't be posting them really. Looks like a sudden dip in temp for weekend up here in Manchester!!!
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
kitenski, cheers, i will keep my eyes on it. will be good to see how good these graphs are for my local area. I will look at yours aswell, cheers.
|
|
|
|
|
|
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
|
Here comes some... snow... (maybe)
The 12z GFS runs show the cold spell hunkering down well into FI in the Alps. Obviously the usual caveat that anything 3 seconds out is subject to change... But there does seem to be quite a lot of cold in the models... And a bit of snow... Though it could all change.
robboj, I remember much of last November being really rather warm, windy and wet in parts of Austria. Several resorts ended up pushing back their opening days and much of the October snow was stripped off... So...
Incidentally, if you flip back a page around 24 September you'll see a model predicting pressure over the next few months. The northern high by December is not so much building as seriously entrenched and dug in. And the low pressure, unable to get past the block of high pressure is spinning off further south than normal. This type of pattern is not dissimilar to what we got last year, northern blocking letting the cold flood in from the East and forcing low pressure systems south.
Brian Glaze of TWO incidentally crops up in the Telegraph suggesting:
“...we expect the third colder than average winter in succession this winter, with very sharp cold spells bringing heavy snow and severe frost.”
Mr Gaze told the western half of the UK to brace for heavy snow - while the eastern half freezes in temperatures as low as 5F (-15C).
“The weather pattern may be different this winter, with cold air from the east or south-east, rather than north east,” he said.
“The heaviest snowfall occurs on the boundary between cold, dry air from the east and mild, moist air from the Atlantic - so it would not be a surprise to see the west of the UK having heavy snowfalls."
Interesting. We'll see...
|
|
|
|
|
|
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Quote: |
Even though I would take 09/10 again now, if offered
|
robboj, for sure! Funnily enough though I think I had some of the best snow in that second half of December when it was super cold. Really light. But maybe I just remember it because it was such a relief after early December!
|
|
|
|
|
|
You know it makes sense.
|
|
|
|
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
|
roga no, not really, I've skied in Scotland since about 1982. In my experience, for every day you describe in your signature line, I've had five days of soft, melting snow and ice, huge crowds, huge queues and windblown drizzle! Unless you can ski midweek after a good snowfall and persistent deep cold then skiing is Scotland is sh 1 t compared to the Alps !
As I've recently said, the hills apart, the (relatively) huge amount of snow in Scotland last winter, for 95% of the time it lay, was a complete pain in the a**e!!!
|
|
|
|
|
|
Poster: A snowHead
|
|
|
|
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
|
|
nozawaonsen, oooooooh where's that map from??
|
|
|
|
|
|
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
|
18z and 00z GFS still trying to push the extended cold story all the way to the end of October. Especially in the Eastern Alps. With some snow.
[edit: worth saying that ECM is not quite so bullish on extended cold and sees the blocking high fading sooner, so interesting to see where GFS goes in later runs]
Here's the full TWO press release which the Telegraph is running with.
UK Winter 2010/11 – initial prospects
"... we expect the most persistent cold in eastern England and Scotland with temperatures falling as low as -15C overnight, and at times remaining sub zero during the day, but with the chance of heavy snow in western regions and Northern Ireland. We expect the worst of the wintry weather to come during January and the first half of February."
"I wouldn’t be surprised to see some locations in the west of Britain and Northern Ireland having significant snowfalls, but the coldest weather is likely to persist for longer in eastern Britain. The core of the cold may well be slightly further east than last year, and this is also likely to give much of mainland Europe below average temperatures. If this occurs the alpine ski resorts may have another good season, although cold conditions on their own don’t ensure this because unless some mild and moist air gets into the mix, it often remains too dry for the heavy snow needed."
MoodyFFS, http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_00_UTC_05Grad/180_24.gif  (wouldn't necessarily vouch for the accuracy of the predicted accumulations...)
|
|
|
|
|
|
You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
| robboj wrote: |
| roga no, not really, I've skied in Scotland since about 1982. In my experience, for every day you describe in your signature line, I've had five days of soft, melting snow and ice, huge crowds, huge queues and windblown drizzle! Unless you can ski midweek after a good snowfall and persistent deep cold then skiing is Scotland is sh 1 t compared to the Alps ! |
The quote isn't from me it's from an unbiased pro who might just have skied a few more places than you or me combined - personally I'd tend to give him more credence than folk with obvious axes to grind!
From your comments you obviously didn't ski Scotland last season (and I wonder whether you actually have at all the last few seasons), or you have bizarrely bad luck unlike me (often travelling from Bristol) and pretty much anyone else you care to mention or else you'd know just how good it was (if you could bring yourself to admit it which I suspect you couldn't) particularly at Cairngorm. In fact it is on record that at points in the season Scottish ski areas had the highest snowfall anywhere so I don't know what the snide '(relatively)' comment is based on!
Anyway, I'll just have to accept you finding it a pain of a pain in the backside if it means another winter like the last. as I'm sure will all those rural Scottish communities who had millions injected into their economies last year.
So here's to another like the last (from someone who was actually there) and you have a nice time wherever you jet off to for your week/2 week snow holiday and spare a thought for us poor souls skiing days, weeks and months on end in Scotland ... sob!  
|
|
|
|
|
|
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
|
roga, all rather off topic but you're not getting away with that!
1) I'm sure Mr Schenholm had a great time. He was certainly a very lucky man if he skied either of the last two seasons in Scotland. Maybe he'll think differently if he comes back in a more 'typical' season?
2) I have no axe to grind, would you care to explain why you think that what I relayed above is anything other than facts of long (28 years) experience.
3) Correct, I did not ski Scotland last winter. I had a month in the Alps, which was a real luxury in terms of time away from business. I planned Glencoe and Nevis over the long weekend just before Easter and just in time for a thaw, so we changed our mind and kept our money. I did ski Cairngorm the year before, and somewhere in Scotland in probably half of the other 27 before that during which I stopped skiing for about 10 years and went mountaineering instead. How many of them did you ski in Scotland?
4) If you read my post I said I hope it stays in the hills this winter. Therefore you and all your friends can have a great time in Scotland and a very few rural economies will benefit. Far fewer than the many rural economies of Scotland who suffered terribly with lost livestock, crops and even lost lives in last winters snows. Not minding of course the rest of the not so rural economies who endured the financial and social impact of weeks of lying snow and ice which could not be treated by local authorities who had run out of both the salt and the cash to deal with it. I do doubt that, coming from Bristol, you have any concept of getting on with your normal day to day life and business, in a urban area, in a winter like last?
5) If you had read the thread you might have realised that nozawaonsen and I were talking about the Austrian Alps with regard to my "adequate" comment.
6) I'm quite concerned about your reading skills now? Especially as you describe my use of the word "relatively" as snide? Allow me to explain, last winter Scotland had a relatively huge amount of snow compared to the average of the last 30 or so years. It may even have been a huge amount relative to the Alps? Would you like me to explain further?
7) Im so pleased that you were "actually there" not least because that meant you weren't where I was  In fact I'm so moved by your dedication to Scotland I emailed Alex Salmond to petition that a medal be struck for you in recognition of your efforts last winter! My thoughts and prayers, and I'm sure those of all the other snowheads, will be with you in your brave venture in 2010/11!
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Cheers robboj, we'll have to agree to disagee on much of what you say I think and if I misread/misunderstood anything you wrote then apologies but don't expect to get away with great sweeping comments suggesting stuff like "Unless you can ski midweek after a good snowfall and persistent deep cold then skiing is Scotland is sh 1 t compared to the Alps" - IMHO a gross generalisation particularly in the light of the last few seasons and frankly I can't see that anyone can make such comments unless they have a view of things that's pretty inflexible, and won't change no matter what evidence to the contrary is mentioned.
For example:
| Quote: |
| 5) If you had read the thread you might have realised that nozawaonsen and I were talking about the Austrian Alps with regard to my "adequate" comment. |
If you'd said that in the first place (snide thought the comment is, like much else you seem to be writing above lol) rather than taking the opportunity to slag off skiing in Scotland we wouldn't be having this off-topic conversation now!
27 years takes us back to 1983 if I'm right in my maths, I grew up skiiing snow in Scotland and skied regulary there until the late 80s, I remember one particularly apalling season (early to mid 80s I think) when there was viryually no snow at all, I have an article cut out of The Scotsman from the time showing snowless slopes. I didn't ski there again (didn't ski at all actually) until 2005/6 and since then have been very pleasantly surprised by some awesome conditions. In the meantime I have also skied all over the Alps and done a bit at my favourite Californian resort Mammoth, some very memorable days at all these locations including Scotland which has stood up well in comparison over these last few years.
Maybe I missed some particularly dreadful years in the 90s and early 00s and that's what's affected your view of Scottish skiing, if that' the case I'm sorry you had such a poor time. However, after seasons like last (and some other recent seasons) to make the sorts of unprompted gross generalisations you made in response to a simple question from me above about your usage of the word "adequate" suggests to me those experiences must have been so bad that you've got something of a 'fixed' opinion that isn't likely to be changed by the reality of more recent seasons.
As for the 'terrible' affects of the cold in the cities, we'll have to adapt if this is a pattern that's going to be repeated. If we believe the history books we've had such cold periods before and, even with less technology available to cope, we seemed to survive. If you think it's dire in the central belt you should see how rubbish people are at coping in the south of England ... but you probably knew that already
Anyway, I don't think we'll have a meeting of minds on this one and it's not the right thread for this discussion anyway so if you want to have the last word on the subject go ahead, I'll stick to weather comments from now on (but beware I might do something outrageous like suggest snow in Scotland is a great thing) but rest assured I will make sure I don't do crazy things like light heartedly ask you to clarify what words like "adequate" mean in the context you use them in.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
roga, with with regards not carrying on talking, please reconsider as am enjoying this
|
|
|
|
|
|
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FAQ
).
