 Poster: A snowHead
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nozawaonsen,
Any sign of how long this high pressure may be around for? Pardon my paranoia, just remember a high coming in around the same time last year and not shifting!
As many have said before me, many thanks for sharing your (extensive!!) knowledge, reckon this must be the best skiing weather information on the net for those of us baffled by terms like gfs and ECM!
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| Quote: |
a high coming in around the same time last year and not shifting!
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where? there was plenty of new snow through January in France, though from early February on it did get rather scarce!
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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SkiG, I think you are misremembering this period last year. As pam w, says the Alps were hit by repeated heavy snow in January last year. Pattern matching from one year to the next is pointless. Pattern matching from one misremembered year to the next is surreal. Don't do it. This will cure you paranoia.
One point worth noting is that without getting too geeky there are strong signals that the stratosphere could undergo substantial warming in the first week of January. If this happens it is likely to disrupt the polar vortex and could bring a return to much more blocked conditions and much colder weather in the second half of January. Something to keep an eye on.
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Any idea about the next few days in the northern Alps? Rain or snow at 1000m? Or just too close to call? We like our villages white you see..
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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nozawaonsen, what would cause the stratosphere to undergo "substantial warming" and why would this bring colder conditions?
Thanks
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| Ricklovesthepowder wrote: |
nozawaonsen, what would cause the stratosphere to undergo "substantial warming" and why would this bring colder conditions?
Thanks |
Sunderland beating Man City was the start of it...... 
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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In terms of the high pressure that looks likely to build over Europe in early January this looks like bringing at least a week of mild, dry and sunny weather to the Alps from 03/04 January. So pack the shades and practice looking cool in the mirror before hand.
Chamonix
Some decent snow on 01/02 January across the Alps before then.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Some really shocking behaviour following an avalanche yesterday
Unfassbar!
http://lawinenwarndienst.blogspot.co.at/2012/12/unfassbar.html?m=1
Four skiers were involved in an avalanche off piste in Zischgeles in the northern Stubai Alps. Two were carried away, but managed to trigger air bags and were unhurt. One of the party was buried. Allegedly two separate groups of passing ski tourers were asked to help, but both refused and continued on there way. Appalling behaviour if true. The emergency services eventually found the injured skier who was flown to hospital in a critical condition.
Separately a snowboarder triggered an avalanche in Serfaus (on 42 degree north facing slope) although he was unhurt the avalanche continued onto an open piste leading to a large search (120 people). Fortunately no one was caught in the avalanche.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Sadly the 38 year old Styrian skier buried in the Zischgeles incident passed away today.
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Here's a round up from Meteo France.
Point sur l'enneigement dans les massifs français au 27 décembre
http://france.meteofrance.com/france/actu/actu?document_id=27329&portlet_id=90136
- Unsettled and often cold weather since the end of November, the snowpack is remarkably deep.
- Excellent snow at all altitudes in the Northern [French] Alps, 50-100% deeper than normal. deepening rapidly with altitude.
"Ainsi, les épaisseurs de neige au sol dans les versants nord sont les suivantes :
- à 1000 m : entre 20 cm et 40 cm dans les Savoies, entre 0 et 10 cm en Isère ;
- à 1500 m : souvent autour de 1 m, un peu moins, 70 à 80 cm, en Vanoise, Maurienne, Haute-Maurienne et dans le Vercors ;
- à 2000 m : 1,80 m à 1,90 m en Haute-Savoie, dans le Beaufortin et en Chartreuse, 1 m à 1,50 m dans les autres massifs."
- Exceptionally good snow in the southern Alps for the start of winter. 1.5 to 2 times seasonal average.
- In the Pyrenees there's been a recent thaw, but from 1800m in the western and central Pyrenees depths are close to seasonal average, much less so closer to the Mediterranean.
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You know it makes sense.
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I think the wigglies might have spent too long trying to make sense of MrPieholes LSD clouds:
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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What will the upcoming thaw do for the snowpack over the following week or so? Stablise it in a freeze-thaw fashion or weaken the existing weak layers even more?
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Poster: A snowHead
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Some of the models are suggesting a Scandinavian blocking high scenario from the middle of the month, apparently similar weather to Jan 1947 !
Shame it's in FI, as it will probably all turn to mush again.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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nozawaonsen, quick question, I just about understand the gfs wiggles. If I wanted to check ecm forecasts for a region or resort Where should I look??
Thanks and happy new year.
Greg
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Wow. Here's a story of luck with a happy ending.
A helicopter flying back to Hintertux yesterday lunchtime from the hospital at Schwaz heard there had just been an avalanche at Torspitze. Seeing as they were passing over the site they did a low fly past and happened to see a tiny gloved hand sticking out of the debris (swipe the picture to see!). They were immediately able to put down and dig out and save the 51 year old skier whose air pocket was just about to run out.
http://www.krone.at/Oesterreich/Hand_winkte_aus_Lawine_Tiroler_von_Heli-Team_gerettet-Kleine_Atemhoehle-Story-345967
Lucky guy and nice one by the heli crew!
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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So I'm getting married on Wednesday, a few nights in Paris and arrive in Val d isere on the 8th. I'm then in lech from the 15th to 22nd.
Noz while I know its a long way it sounds like no fresh snow after the 3rd for much of the month? We have a great base and clear skies are great but I'd love a few cm of fresh pow once or twice 
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kitenski, the short answer is that you can't. ECM does provide a detailed professional service, but it is at professional prices. GFS makes much more of it's data freely available. Hence why it is used so much for creating commercial forecasts on websites. In general ECM is recognised as a better product than GFS. That doesn't mean it is always better just that it has what is called a higher skill level.
You can however see some of the ensembles for European cities on Meteogroup
http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html
And of course the charts on Meteociel
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php
Cubanpete, not really too sure what to say? Hope wedding is terrific. Can honestly say married life is fab. Sounds like you've got a great honeymoon planned. And looks like it may start of with some fine weather which will be great. As for no fresh snow for most of the month, looks like a dry start after 02 Jan for at least a week after that who knows.
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nozawaonsen,
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they did a low fly past and happened to see a tiny gloved hand sticking out of the debris (swipe the picture to see!). They were immediately able to put down and dig out and save the 51 year old skier whose air pocket was just about to run out.
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What a fantastic story!
Cubanpete, have a great day on Wednesday and a super trip! 
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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That is amazing isn't it - just had a look at the photos of the two hands and the face.... sends shivers down the spine - what a very lucky man.
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The time of year to wish you all a very Happy New Year!!!
And if you are injured (or ill) I wish you a speedy recovery.
Keep safe out there, have fun and enjoy the mountains whatever the weather!
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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nozawaonsen, and Happy New Year to you! Thank you for infinitely informative and enjoyable posts!
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| Quote: |
Happy New Year to you! Thank you for infinitely informative and enjoyable posts!
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+1
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+2
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You know it makes sense.
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nozawaonsen, your tantalizing weather posts bring joy and a smile to all snowHeads - Happy New Year!
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
Some really shocking behaviour following an avalanche yesterday
Unfassbar!
http://lawinenwarndienst.blogspot.co.at/2012/12/unfassbar.html?m=1
Four skiers were involved in an avalanche off piste in Zischgeles in the northern Stubai Alps. Two were carried away, but managed to trigger air bags and were unhurt. One of the party was buried. Allegedly two separate groups of passing ski tourers were asked to help, but both refused and continued on there way. Appalling behaviour if true. The emergency services eventually found the injured skier who was flown to hospital in a critical condition.
Separately a snowboarder triggered an avalanche in Serfaus (on 42 degree north facing slope) although he was unhurt the avalanche continued onto an open piste leading to a large search (120 people). Fortunately no one was caught in the avalanche. |
Looks like the police are now trying to find the ski tourer that refused to help
http://www.kleinezeitung.at/nachrichten/chronik/3205920/nach-lawinenunglueck-suche-nach-rund-50-jaehrigem.story
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Poster: A snowHead
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nozawaonsen, any more news on this polar vortex breaking off and coming down over Europe? The alps are looking very dry over the next 6 days and freezing levels around 2000-2800m. Could do with a fresh top up of snow!
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Ricklovesthepowder, There is tons of snow.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Ricklovesthepowder, not sure if you actually read the links I posted above?
But to reiterate:
- What is well forecast is a rapid and substantial warming of the stratosphere over the next week.
- This is likely (but not certain) to be followed by substantial disruption of the polar vortex.
- Depending what this disruption looks like this could cause the jet to be forced south allowing cold air to pour down into Europe.
So for very cold weather you need all three of the above to happen and the first is underway. Keep in mind though that any colder weather could be 2-4 weeks behind the strat warming.
Here's a comment Ian Fergusson from the Met Office put on Netweather earlier today.
"It's a fascinating time developing and trust me - the more I hear about what could happen later January from UKMO colleagues, the more exciting it becomes. There's a real buzz in discussions about this one.... (and I'm not normally drawn by such things!!)"
As for snow keep in mind that very cold weather often means very dry weather too.
Still some sunny weather heading to the Alps from the end of the week...
Last edited by Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see? on Tue 1-01-13 19:53; edited 1 time in total
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Filthyphil30k, I don't remember saying there wasn't tons of snow, please could you point out where I said there wasn't? All I said was that pistes could do with a top up, meaning that in places pistes are becoming icy and worn, that's all.
nozawaonsen, thanks for the update. I hadnt actually clicked on the link but I've just looked at it. Looks to be a gradual cooling by the middle if the month, but they are a long way off yet.
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It's snowing here in the Beaufortain, not with enormous vigour or conviction though we've already had more than the 10cm forecast and it's due to continue for some hours. A light refreshment will be welcome - but the pistes are in great shape, snow depths are reassuringly deep and some warm sunny weather will be extremely pleasant, especially when the New Year hordes stop cluttering up the place.
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I made an involuntary 'ooooooowoooooraaaaaaaargh' noise when I hit a patch of blue ice 2 days ago. That shouldn't happen. The off-piste I've tried in the last couple of days has been like skiing through a Camembert.
A top up would be most welcome, just to make things nice, not because the low slopes are lacking a base or anything.
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from my kitchen seat, looking at the GFS wigglies for the Dolomites, looks mild (with most runs in agreement) until at least 12th Jan, and from the ECM link kindly supplied above I think that is in broad agreement although showing cold coming in from the east by the 9th Jan???
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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kitenski, "wigglies" is an awful description.
ECM and GFS op runs do indeed diverge quite a bit from +192.
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ok so noza from what you had said you think the warmer weather should be followed by quite and extreme drop in temps ( due to this whole stratosphere stuff which i am struggling to fully understand) I am hoping for a nice dump a few days before i go  but hey we cant all have what we want. hehe. Seems this week is shaping up to be pretty warm though. As some of said a top up would be nice temps looking to hit about 6-8c @ 1000m in places and just hovering around freezing @ 1700m.
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FAQ
