 Poster: A snowHead
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
xander89, just to clarify things for you. The current weather in the Alps is not freak weather. It's mild weather. And a period of mild weather is relatively common in the Alps. Indeed mild weather at Christmas actually has it's own singularity named for the period, Weihnachtstauwetter.
This current weather doesn't have any real impact on how the weather will be in January and certainly not beyond. It will have an impact on the snowpack (all weather does), but I doubt that will be an issue for you.
I'd stop worrying if I were you. |
hard not to but i shall try  . Also the worry was the snowpack not the baring on future weather.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Why?
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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some very warm temps about, been plus 11 on top of the local ski hill all night, about freezing in valley. a list of temps here across Austria http://www.bergfex.com/oesterreich/wetter/. off for a xmas ski and drinks on the sun terrace,.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Edit
Last edited by You need to Login to know who's really who. on Tue 25-12-12 10:22; edited 1 time in total
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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xander89, I fear you may have misunderstood.
The snowpack is made up of layers like geological strata. Every day whether it be cold, warm, sunny, rainy or snowy the weather alters the snowpack sometimes subtly, sometimes substantially.
Over the season it all goes to add different layers to the snowpack which vary from place to place changed by the weather, altitude, aspect and position. And over time the weight of the snowpack itself changes the structure compacting it under it's own weight.
If you dig a snow pit (or find a place you can see a cross section) you can see all these different layers and see how then pack does or doesn't hold together.
This is what I meant by the rainy and mild weather having an effect on the snowpack. In the same way the colder weather and snow over the next couple of days will also have an effect on the snowpack. It all leaves a mark.
This is of particular importance off piste. It changed the nature of the snow you are skiing on substantially and changes the risk of avalanches.
On piste it's a bit different. Because every day a massive, metal machine churns up the snow, shapes it and smooths it under huge weight.
So to repeat you are simply wasting your time worrying about a few days of mild weather.
Hope you have a merry Christmas.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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nozawaonsen, the one thing I've learned is you can't help the weather, it happens and there's no point worrying about it, at the moment all indications say it will go back to being cold again this week, best conditions will be up in the higher areas, thats about normal for this time of year!
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first to admit I know chuff all about the weather. But my experience of walking up past Val Thorens to some of the higher bits in May and even June shows nozawaonsen to be right about a period of mild temps having little impact on the piste. Much of the piste above 2600m survives pretty high temperatures right through certainly to the end of May this year we were walking in what was left of the snow. It doesn't really disappear until July time.
I will be a bit of a heretic and say that for the vast majority who ski on-piste the weather forecast from now on isn't really that relevant. Enough snow has fallen already to last through the season. Unless, perhaps you are skiing somewhere low down. 
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| Quote: |
I will be a bit of a heretic and say that for the vast majority who ski on-piste the weather forecast from now on isn't really that relevant. Enough snow has fallen already to last through the season.
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Would have to agree with this. Was in Chamonix the last few days. My guide said that the base was already set for the season. I, too, can certainly obsess on the weather. However, I'm starting to realize that I can have fun no matter what the conditions. After all, it's really about being in the mountains.....
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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High winds around the upper slopes of Zermatt had blown away some nice amounts of off-piste snow pack. And put a nice firm buff on what had previously fallen. As nozawaonsen has pointed out, one item of weather that impacts the snowpack is wind. So we'll wait and see what transpires later in the week.
Couldn't quite figure out what the pisten bullies were doing with the snow around some of the upper slopes, just off-piste. Farming it for later? Saw them doing something similar in Mannlichen a few years back too. In any event, I'm patiently waiting for that fresh snow. My buddies back home are just loving life in the PNW, 8 feet of fresh the past 7 days. Same thing happend last time I was in Europe. Going to have to start having my friends pay to have me leave in the winter.... 
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Hi Toadman, I'm in Zermatt too, I think they're for catching drifting snow in those pisten tracks for later use.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Between one and two feet of snow heading to the northern Alps over the next three days.
02 Jan looks interesting too.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Looks like the forecast warmth is dwindling and the snow depth is building 
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| dbeatski wrote: |
| Hi Toadman, I'm in Zermatt too, I think they're for catching drifting snow in those pisten tracks for later use. |
Well that makes sense. Very cloudy and overcast in zermatt at the early morning. Not a heck of a lot of terrain to ski in whiteout like conditions.
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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nozawaonsen,
Thanks for all the info in 2012. Much appreciated by this Snowhead.
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Poster: A snowHead
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nozawaonsen, +1 ^. You put lots of effort into lots of helpful posts and make sense of the weather for us lay folk. Thanks and hope New Year is good to you!
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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The Pyrenees has cooler air for a couple of days but rising again. A dusting of snow down to 1200m overnight will have made things a little better but exposed slopes and pistes without snow cannons lower down are beginning to suffer. Peyragudes reported 5cm of fresh this morning so at least everything is looking better.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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How are the wind speds looking for the next couple of days?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Feast, pretty strong winds tomorrow strengthening Thursday night before moderating Friday and dropping some Saturday.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Next couple of days should see snow falling to low levels in the northern Alps. 30-40cm+. But it will also be quite stormy at times especially tomorrow night which will obvioulsy lead to drifting at altitude and an increased avalanche risk.
Looks sunnier on Friday and Saturday. Milder though cold overnight on 30 December.
The next snow looks like arriving around 02 January with some cold temperatures.
At present it looks like warming up again from 04 to 07 January, though that's a way off.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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What about wind speeds at Gatwick airport on Saturday - gusting to 50mph - doesn't sound too good!
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mcboz, Met Office has winds gusting at 26-28mph on Saturday. I don't think that would cause major problems.
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nozawaonsen, Excellent! Thank you. Not long now, just two days of work to get through. Thanks for the excellent weather posts....
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Much colder at the far end of FI as we enter the end of the second week of January with a cold easterly being pulled across, but it's the pub run and also easterlies are tricky to pin down and in any case far FI. But shows there are plenty of options on the table.
Shorter term snow tomorrow and Friday with a second potentially fairly substantial band moving across on 01/02 January.
SLF reckons "strong to storm force" winds in the northern Alps tomorrow.
LWD Tirol makes a similar point "Weather: A strong to stormy westerly airstream inside of which disturbances from the Atlantic are embedded is moving over the Alps until Friday."
That wind and transportation of new and existing snow is going to lead to loading so well worth paying attention to the local avalanche advice.
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Looks like Schladming is too far east again to get too much from the next system, had about 10cm higher up yesterday, rain in valley. I'm sure on 9th Jan the weather will come in from the east and provide plenty of snow as that's when I head NW to England and a friend that always scores good snow heads SE. Strange that for the last couple of days the Steiermark avi report has 1s all over whilst Salzburgerland has generally 3s, strange as the states share a border so why such a marked difference? See http://www.lawine.salzburg.at/start.html and http://lawine-steiermark.at/index.php?frame=lage
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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About 10-15cm of fresh powder overnight in Tignes Val Claret and snowing heavily now - even heavier snow and high winds expected this afternoon.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Should be some great conditions tomorrow as the wind drops and the sun comes out. It should be clearing from the west so may take a little longer to reach the eastern Alps.
Saturday looks pretty sunny and mild. Should be very pleasant though will get warm so an early start if you want to find powder.
Wind picking up on Sunday though often still sunny.
Snow pushing across again over the evening of New Year's Day and morning of 02 Jan.
This morning's ECM suggests a return to cool weather by the end of the week...
Though with limited support at this stage from GFS.
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Monsoon season round here today. Torrential rain below about 1600m, snow above that but I'd hesitate to say 'powder'. It's 'igloo snow'. We built a snowman. It was like working with Play Doh. Great for the higher pistes after its been bashed down certainly. Lower slopes will be badly rain affected though I'm afraid.
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You know it makes sense.
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It's been snowing here all morning, at 1550m, but very wet and gloopy. I've been baby minding but the skiers came back caked with wet snow, which sticks to a knitted beanie like sh*t to a blanket.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Snowing down to village level in Zermatt. Took the Matterhorn Express up to Schwarzsee this morning. High winds and basically white out conditions made it not worth it. I hope the wind dies down and doesn't blow it all to Saas Fee or Austria! I do hope things settle down on Friday, since it's my last day to ski.
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Poster: A snowHead
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It's been changing between very wet snow (big flakes) and rain in Verbier at about 1500m, currently light rain. Has not really been any accumulation at this altitude, perhaps a few cm.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Over in Les Masses has been snowing steadily down to 1500m Up at 2000m+ is very windy - wind slab building up appreciably. Skiing quite gentle off piste, the tracks from one run were completely covered by the time that one did the run again... Snow other than windslab was powder -There was a crust about 7cm thick formed by yesterday's colder conditions - so not a bad snow bridge.....
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Its dumping big time in La Plagne but rain down in the lower villages
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| Quote: |
| skiers came back caked with wet snow, which sticks to a knitted beanie like sh*t to a blanket. |
Can I be the only person in the world who has never taken a sh*t on a blanket?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Patrick Nairz in his blog (in German) flagging up the rising risks as people push it when the good weather comes this weekend with cold, loose drifted snow potentially sitting on a melt freeze crust or wind crust.
Wir steuern wieder einer für den Wintersportler heiklen Lawinensituation zu
http://lawinenwarndienst.blogspot.co.at/2012/12/wir-steuern-wieder-einer-fur-den.html?m=1
In the northern Alps snow fading east tomorrow and clearer weather pushing in from the west later in the day. Still looks pretty windy.
Southern Alps looking sunnier.
By Saturday much sunnier across the Alps, much milder too.
Possibly light snow showers on Sunday. More likely next snowfall on 02 January.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| Patrick Nairz in his blog (in German) flagging up the rising risks as people push it when the good weather comes this weekend with cold, loose drifted snow potentially sitting on a melt freeze crust or wind crust. |
I think that will become a significant risk for the next two or three days. Over the last couple of days I've triggered a couple of very small, very thin slabs (just a few centimetres) on lower slopes which I think has been caused by buried rain crust with a just little bit of fresh snow on top of it. With the heavier snow of today, and wind loading on some slopes, the buried crust might form a weak bond with a very much deeper slab on top of it. This might not trigger so easily, but if it does a lot of snow is going to move and could be a considerable risk. Caution will be required rather than a powder frenzy when the weather clears.
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rob@rar, Henry's avalanche talk concurs http://www.henrysavalanchetalk.com/
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Everytime we skied on a slope steeper than 25 degrees and below 2500m we triggered a small slide of fresh snow that was sitting on top of an icy layer. The deep snow pack below had been refrozen and was well compacted and stuck to the mountain (below 2500m). But on the top of this the snow was very fragile and it was easy to trigger a small slide. These slides caused us alarm but had little consequence due to there only being 10cm of fresh snow and we were on short and small pitches with not much to woprry about.
However on Friday and Saturday when the snow on top of this hard layer is 30 to 50cm it could be very different. Being thicker it will be harder to trigger the release. But if you do trigger a release the consequences will be much more serious. |
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00z GFS wants it warm (above average) 4th January onwards and ECM wants it much colder! Let the battle commence!
I know who I'm cheering for
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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ECM now siding with GFS on a milder spell, with high pressure in charge, once we get into January from around 04 January.
This chart shows the 00z ECM forecast anomaly (so difference from normal). It actually gets stronger by the end of the run.
Weather would be more settled and more frequently sunny than it has in the last few weeks.
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FAQ
