The latest GFS runs look so grim I'm not looking at them again for 24 hours. Rain till almost mid month except at the highest altitudes in the northern Alps, and freezing levels over 2000m even as far east as Zell am See. I think I'm going to have to concentrate on improving my French.
brian
brian Guest
pam w, quel dommage.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
pam w, will shortly try to put a slightly more positive angle on the 06Z run for early/mid next week...
nozawaonsen, I'm relying on you...... indeed, we're all relying on you, but we don't expect you to prostitute your art just to keep us punters happy.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
pam w,
Quote:
but we don't expect you to prostitute your art just to keep us punters happy.
Speak for yourself!
To add to the fun, a Met Office warning at work has just mentioned that for the North East of England:
"The next advisory is for the risk of a significant snow event later on Friday into Saturday. Quite a lot of snow is possible in places as a frontal system pushes up from the south. However, it should be a transient snow event as milder air is expected to turn most of the snow back to rain during Saturday."
So the weather will conspire to a) prevent me getting to Leeds airport; b) remove all vestiages of snow from the slopes (over-exageration alert!)...
Yes. At some point or other beneath 1800m in pretty much anywhere in the Alps over the next week, it looks like there could be rain. Above that there there could be a lot of snow!
The low pressure systems rolling in from the Atlantic are being driven in from the South West and are hitting the French Alps first. So heavier precipitation there coincides with the arrival of warmer temperatures. Hence the first burst of precipitation over Thursday, Friday and Saturday will fall as rain up to 1600 to about 1800m+. A good amount of snow above that. Similar condition in western Switzerland, though the freezing level looks like being a 2-3 C lower round say Zermatt.
Temperatures will rise in the eastern Alps, but a couple of degrees less than in the west and the first precipitation will only likely have a limited impact further east.
The second system arrives in the French Alps on Sunday, temperatures are already a couple of degrees lower so freezing level and rain level are about 300m lower.
But by the end of Monday as further precipitation is pulling through freezing levels are moving down to 750m. Tuesday more snow and temperatures lower again, possibly freezing down to 400m. Wednesday starts cold freezing kicks off at 400m and more snow though temperatures are starting to build through the day. By Thursday snow level up to 1500m, before it drops again on Friday.
In the Eastern Alps (Austria, Eastern Switzerland and Dolomites) precipitation is coming through by Monday as the temperatures are falling. Freezing is at 1500m, dropping quickly to 300m in parts of Austria by the end of the day. Snowing through the first half of Tuesday with cold temperatures as weather starts to come from West and then North West. By Wednesday and Thursday heavy precipitation arrives in Austria (precipitation now heavier east than west). Temperatures are warmer, but freezing is around 1500m, snow level 1200m, slightly lower further East. Friday into Saturday more snow as freezing levels move back towards 900m.
For Pyrennees temperatures look like being quite a bit above seasonal average, though a fair amount less precipitation, but coming down as rain up to 1800m+ (possibly slightly less of a problem given the heights of resorts).
UK could well see snow over the next few days especially in Scotland and North West England.
Possible return of a colder pattern from mid month.
Last edited by You'll need to Register first of course. on Tue 4-01-11 19:52; edited 2 times in total
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
nozawaonsen, merci, je vais garder les doigts croisés
After all it is free
After all it is free
nozawaonsen, great stuff, thanks for the updates. Off to Les Arcs on saturday so not looking too bad. As you say, we might have to trudge through the rubbish at the bottom to get to the good stuff at the top! At least freezing level drops by the time we start on sunday.
I think this looks pretty good for the French Alps or am i being a bit naive?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
hmm i think i need to stop reading these reports now or dig the grass skis out
Notre dame de Barecombe by the 21st Jan at this rate
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Quote:
Notre dame de Barecombe by the 21st Jan at this rate
skinutter, . It's a long way off........
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
nozawaonsen wrote:
In the Eastern Alps (Austria, Eastern Switzerland and Dolomites) precipitation is coming through by Monday as the temperatures are falling. Freezing is at 1500m
Music to my ears, roll on Arabba (1602m) on the 16th!!
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Nozawaonsen, Brian - thanks for the pep talk. I needed it.
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Looks like it will be a rainy few days in the lower Alps over the next week or so.
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Pattern looks fairly similar this evening. A slight downgrade in the precipitation forecast for next week, but this could easily go up again on the next run... Temperatures look broadly the same. Snow/rain coming into the Western Alps from Thursday.
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
I'm off to Alpe D'Huez on Saturday, and I'm very new to all this. The forecast is for maybe 20cm snow over the next week or so, but how much snow is needed to really improve conditions? I'm really hoping La Sarenne will re-open whilst I'm there. Will 20cm significantly improve conditions?
Sorry if this is a stupid question, but I need to ask, and there aren't stupid questions, just stupid people
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
StevenH72, not too sure where you've got 20cm of snow from? It's very difficult to predict, but I would suspect there could be a little more than that over the next week? (though I would be wary of hazarding a guess)
It does look like there is going to be quite a bit of snow at altitude at the end of this week (though rain lower down!). Most of Alpe D'Huez should be okay I would have thought given the height. Though lower runs down to the valley bottom (ie down below Alpe D'Huez itself) could see a fair amount of rain between now and Saturday.
I imagine the snow that falls would be plenty to refresh the slopes as long as they are high enough! Don't know La Sarenne, how low is the final stretch?
During the week itself it looks like there should be further snow fall (though the amount is unclear at present, it doesn't look as much as will fall Thursday through Saturday this week) and the temperatures are set to drop at least in the first half of the week and will at times be quite cold (at least according to the most recent runs)...
Here is how things might look Tuesday overnight and Wednesday first thing (to be fair this is about the coldest point in the week...)
Last edited by Poster: A snowHead on Fri 7-01-11 1:25; edited 5 times in total
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
nozawaonsen wrote:
StevenH72, not too sure where you've got 20cm of snow from? It's very difficult to predict, but I would suspect there could be a little more than that over the next week? (though I would be wary of hazarding a guess)
I imagine the snow that falls would be plenty to refresh the slopes as long as they are high enough! Don't know La Sarenne, how low is the final stretch?
I got the 20cm From the video snow report on alpedhueznet.com and various weather forecasts. Some say slightly more (at 2100m) and some say slightly less, so I just took a rough average.
I'm not too sure where La Sarenne finishes, but I've read that it Skis into resort (although can't find this again now), but if this is true, then it should finish around roughly 1860m.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
There is nobody or no computer in this world that can accurately predict new snow/rainfall amounts, it's hard enough to predict the precipitation never mind the amount!
Just ski what you find, and don't stress about it.
I have been closely following snow reports for the last 8 winters, as I spend a fair bit of the time in the French Alps. I'd say that if you do an intelligent sweep of all the forecasts and GFS (and snowheads of course ) you get a good idea as to when precipitation is likely and, close in (not ten days off) the forecasts of freezing level are pretty accurate.
However, forecasts of "centimetres" of snow (or mm of rain) are practically always wrong. In either direction. It's hard to ignore them, but it's the best thing to do.
From my own empirical observation (ie looking out t'window) I'd say that for my location snow-forecast.com most frequently underestimates - often by quite a bit - the amount of snow that falls.
Of the forecasts I look at meteo Chamonix is the least inaccurate on snow depth - and fairly useful for my location though not, obviously, for places further away.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
pam w wrote:
I have been closely following snow reports for the last 8 winters, as I spend a fair bit of the time in the French Alps. I'd say that if you do an intelligent sweep of all the forecasts and GFS (and snowheads of course ) you get a good idea as to when precipitation is likely and, close in (not ten days off) the forecasts of freezing level are pretty accurate.
However, forecasts of "centimetres" of snow (or mm of rain) are practically always wrong. In either direction. It's hard to ignore them, but it's the best thing to do.
From my own empirical observation (ie looking out t'window) I'd say that for my location snow-forecast.com most frequently underestimates - often by quite a bit - the amount of snow that falls.
Of the forecasts I look at meteo Chamonix is the least inaccurate on snow depth - and fairly useful for my location though not, obviously, for places further away.
Thanks Pam (and everybody else for your advice).
I think having seen recent snow reports, I'm happy that there is some (hopefully a decent amount) of precipitation predicted.
But as stated, I think the best thing, maybe, is to ignore the weather reports and ski what is available, after all stressing about won't help at all.
That said, I am used to religiously scouring weather forecasts during the cricket season, that I doubt I'll be able to ignore them
To follow up my last post, having spent all summer for the last 10(ish) summers hoping not to see any precipitation, this makes a nice change!
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
kitenski wrote:
Just ski what you find, and don't stress about it.
Cheers,
Greg
Nail hit on head. The pre-trip forecast addiction is for me a serious problem and a source of endless stress. And somewhat pointless if you've booked stuff already.
After all it is free
After all it is free
Quote:
I think this looks pretty good for the French Alps or am i being a bit naive?
Yes, heavy rain to 2400 m over Thursday to Saturday, it don't get much worse I'm afraid.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
pam w wrote:
From my own empirical observation (ie looking out t'window) I'd say that for my location snow-forecast.com most frequently underestimates - often by quite a bit - the amount of snow that falls.
Apologies for butting in but my fingers just started typing ...
Regarding looking out of your window and comparing it with what snow-forecast said, so far as I am aware, the snow-forecast prediction is based upon the operational run from the GFS and even at high resolution this samples to just 0.5 degree by latitude and longitude. That equates to a lump of information for precipitation amount, wind speed, wind direction and vertical temperature sampling that has to be levelled out per 50km x 50km lump of the Earth's surface. Some further interpolation should then be possible for the snow-forecast folk to skew their model estimate for what's going to happen on individual mountains within each 2,500 square kilometres but taking into account orographic enhancement accurately for an individual resort is really very complex i.e. one side of a mountain could get a warm Foehn wind, the other could get a big dump of snow. The model also runs 4 times daily so a smaller weather system that was modelled to deliver 30 cm of snow to a certain mountain can miss it entirely by the next run 6 hours later.
Your observation on underestimates makes sense because, on average, ski runs will be established where snow is most reliable i.e. where the most orographic precipitation enhancements occur and where warm Foehn winds are least likely to raise the freezing level. And that won't necessarily relate directly to absolute wind direction either as the Alps are easily big enough to completely change the direction of any general prevailing wind to something quite different locally. For a data churning tool like snow-forecast to be able to take account of so many different factors for so many mountains all over the world is next to impossible.
For a data churning tool like snow-forecast to be able to take account of so many different factors for so many mountains all over the world is next to impossible.
of course it is - I quite understand that. Even very focussed human forecasts (like the kind you can get from the met Office if you pay) can't be accurate about amounts of precipitation. But when people moan, quite frequently, that snow-forecast always promises more snow than is delivered, or put their hopes on numbers of centimetres, the point bears repeating.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
pam w, men are obsessed with measurements, and always hope for a few extra centimetres
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
pam w wrote:
But when people moan, quite frequently ...
... about rain unexpectedly falling in resort when they were promised snow
... about snow unexpectedly closing their airport when it wasn't forecast
... about being expected to carry snow chains when the roads have always been cleared
... about crashing their unsuitable car because the council hadn't cleared the fresh snow from the street near their house
... about the unexpected delay in their resort transfer because their coach was caught in heavy snow
pam w wrote:
... the point bears repeating.
I'm not sure. When it comes to snow, some people just get brainmush.
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Quote:
men are obsessed with measurements, and always hope for a few extra centimetres
and some women, when promised 20 cms, can get quite arsey if they only get 10.
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
StevenH72 wrote:
I'm not too sure where La Sarenne finishes, but I've read that it Skis into resort (although can't find this again now), but if this is true, then it should finish around roughly 1860m.
IIRC the sarenne starts at the top of Pic Blanc (3300m or so) and ends at the bottom of the 'scare chair', which must be 300m or so below resort level. most of the run length is a gentle valley bottom run out at low level (and not really worth skiing). my guess is it won't benefit from the weather to come. stay high - the runs are more fun up there anyway.
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
The GFS temperature chart for next Tuesday, Wednesday was only meant to be illustrative. The temperatures will vary locally considerably and at this range can and most likely will change quite a bit. The point was that next week isn't necessarily all about mild in the Alps and the trend for a sharp fall early next week has been looking good since last Friday at least.
18z GFS just coming out and obviously this is FI (so likely to change), but something could be brewing brewing out in the east for the third week of January...
18z also continues to downgrade the amount of precipitation falling next week. At present the main focus is on the western Alps at the end of this week. Unsettled elsewhere, but if 18z were to be believed, not much in the way of large snowfall next week, we'll see...
Separately it will be interesting to see how the potential for snow in the UK over Friday and Saturday develops. At present mostly North and West, but worth keeping an eye on...
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
The low pressure system is approaching now. The main impact will be felt in the western Alps, but temperatures across the Alps will start to increase, steeply from tomorrow. Cloud will increasingly replace the clear blue weather of the last few days...
Rain will arrive, snow at first, but by close on Friday it looks like it will be raining at least up to 1800m in much of the French Alps, quite possibly higher... (2100m in some places...). The actual temperature line between snow and rain will come down to local conditions and could well vary considerably from valley to valley. Above 2100m there could be substantial snowfall.
A further band of precipitation looks like moving through on Sunday. The snow line looks like being about 300m lower at that stage. This looks like reaching further east into western Austria over Sunday night, which already slightly cooler could produce a snow line closer to 1200m.
Temperatures across the Alps then cool considerably. The latest (00z) run now has the cooler period dryer. And a further band of precipitation arriving on Thursday. Though it too would be accompanied by quite a rise in temperatures. The detail for next week is though very unclear and will change. If there is a trend it is to slightly reduce the overall precipitation for next week compared for what was being flagged up a couple of days ago.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Hi Nozawaonsen , any idea of what we can expect in Andorra, heading there on Sunday
FAQ
Poster: A snowHead
. It's a long way off........
