 Poster: A snowHead
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What will be will be kitenski, I'd just prefer the forecasts to be saying something else even at this early stage!
Thinking about it last Christmas our first day was curtailed slightly as all but two lifts were shut in Cervinia due to wind. Broke us in gently and made day 2 a ski hard day.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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bruisedskier, the start of January is two weeks away. What are you talking about?
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Time for some strong coffee...
Here is a pointless chart for the end of the GFS run showing colder than average temperatures in the Alps for early January.
I say pointless because at that range the output is extremely likely to change.
As for Arabba it's on the southern and eastern side of the Alps. Therefore I would be surprised if the stormy weather heading for the western and northern side of the Alps had a massive impact. It looks cooler and drier to me.
French Alps still look pretty wet and windy on Saturday night, Sunday morning. Good excuse to go large on Saturday and doze on Sunday.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Thanks nozawaonsen.
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Ditto 
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Snowforecast.com seems to be getting things very wrong this season. They've been underestimating snowfall a lot and their temperature predictions have been way off as well. Are they being caught out by funny conditions or has something gone wrong with their system?
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| Lenny Law wrote: |
| Snowforecast.com seems to be getting things very wrong this season. They've been underestimating snowfall a lot and their temperature predictions have been way off as well. Are they being caught out by funny conditions or has something gone wrong with their system? |
They've never been the best, but I agree this winter they seem to be way off the mark.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Is it just me or does anyone find their "issued: 12am 18 Dec 2012 (local time)" thing wrong. 12am is midnight? Pretty sure they updated it 1hr 17mins ago and mean issued: 12pm.
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| Quote: |
Snowforecast.com seems to be getting things very wrong this season. They've been underestimating snowfall a lot and their temperature predictions have been way off as well. Are they being caught out by funny conditions or has something gone wrong with their system?
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I certainly hope so, they are showing nearly 1M of rain in les carroz on saturday 
Too early to tell but I have 5 weeks to go until my trip and so far its all looked very promising until I saw thart. We will see.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| mheadbee wrote: |
| I certainly hope so, they are showing nearly 1M of rain in les carroz on saturday |
Or to look at it another way, nearly 1cm of rain.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Im certainly hoping they have the temp forecast wrong! Headed to Vorarlberg on Friday and they are forecasting 39mm rain on Sunday night!! it was looking so good until this week
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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I don't post much but I have 2 bits of advice.
1. Do not look at snow-forecast.com.
2. Listen to Noz and don't panic unless he says panic.
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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nozawaonsen, I have strayed from the path, forgive me 
Netweather earlier today was showing warm temperatures out into January, they go out to 384 hours, and the cold had rolled back into Russia, leaving europe a green and pleasant land (on their map.)
However I see now normality has returned and a nice swathe of blue is cut across europe as far as the pyrenees.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Netweather going out to 384, snowforecast.com, are both using the same base data which is the GFS operational run.
GFS is a really clever model which does an amazing job of sorting through the complexity of the different variables in how the weather might turn out. But it is a model based on 20 different ensemble runs produced several times during the day. To just use the operational run is like trying to play Moonlight Sonata using just one piano key.
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| jonathancarty wrote: |
I don't post much but I have 2 bits of advice.
1. Do not look at snow-forecast.com.
2. Listen to Noz and don't panic unless he says panic. |
very good advice imho
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Well, whatever it'll do at the weekend (and meteo France is a lot more optimistic about the snow/rain level) it is stunning tonight. Drove from Calais today. There's been 30 cms fresh snow up in Saisies today and all the way up from Megeve there was snow on the road. Starlit sky, trees looming huge in the moonlight, with as big a load of snow as they can carry. No traffic (well, you wouldn't expect much at 3 am....). New snow tyres doing their job.  Magic night.
Col de Montets is closed - signs on the A40.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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| Quote: |
they are showing nearly 1M of rain
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| Quote: |
Or to look at it another way, nearly 1cm of rain.
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or to look at it yet another way, nearly 100mm of rain, chaps?
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Could be some very fine weather today in the Alps as the sun breaks through.
Snow's back on Friday though before we get to the tricky Saturday night, Sunday morning spell. Very wet and windy with snow line between 1700 and 2000m (possibly higher in the west). On the plus side it's going to put a lot more snow down at altitude. Obviously the snow and wind will also create an increased avalanche risk.
Boxing Day looks like it will bring more snow to lower levels.
Off into FI GFS produces a very mild operational outlier with no support from the pack or indeed ECM all of which go colder. But a lot of spread and realistically the only conclusion is uncertainty as we head towards the last few days of 2012.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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That damn spike in temps on Sat night / Sunday is not disappearing.
I'm keeping my hopes up that it's only the handiwork of a GFS programmer with Bayesian statistics leanings and a strong belief in Mayan prophecies.
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horizon, sat night and sunday is going to be warm and wet. Let's hope the following snow sorts things out
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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horizon, there is still a 5 or so degree difference in the GFS runs for St Anton so may not be as bad/could be very wet, all to play for!!
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| Quote: |
That damn spike in temps
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Not to mention improbably ridiculous spike in precipitation...... 
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| pam w wrote: |
| Quote: |
That damn spike in temps
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Not to mention improbably ridiculous spike in precipitation...... |
Seemed to mellow slightly in the last few runs, but the 06z brings it back with a vengeance!
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You know it makes sense.
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This evening's SLF outlook.
"Outlook until Saturday, 22.12.2012
Friday
Particularly during the night, widespread snowfall above approximately 1000 m. During the day it will be variably cloudy. The avalanche danger is not expected to change significantly.
Saturday
On Saturday in western and northern regions in particular, continued precipitation. The snowfall level in western regions will ascend to about 1600 m. The avalanche danger is expected to increase from region to region."
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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This afternoon's ECM models 850 hPa temperatures as high as +14 C across the French Alps on Christmas Eve ...
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Thank god for that, I thought it was going to be cold and miserable!
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Looking at the positive side the warmest air on Christmas eve doesn't coincide with the snow/rain. Cooler and snow to lower levels from Boxing Day.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Better pack the cocktail umbrellas 
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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| Quote: |
Gosh why are the models showing a retreat of the cold from the east
Looks like the start of January could be warmer than the start of December!!
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ok, I got the dates wrong but this is the gist of what I was trying to say. At least it doesn't co-incide with any pres..precip... wet stuff falling.
The temperature seems to fall away quite though.
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Meanwhile, in Russia.
-50!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Yep the warmer air looks like its going to win out this time. Up until yesterday the eastern alps looked like they would escape the warmer air but this has all changed now. The warmer air now looks like spreading right across the alps. I'd be suprised to see this backtrack now as all if not most of the ensemble members support this now.
However the good news is that the warm up is only temporary and looks now to be followed by more snow xmas/boxing day. And for some French resorts the possibility of the snow continuing right up until the new year though would treat this with low confidence at this stage.
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Here's a report (in German) on the fatal avalanche in St Anton on Tuesday.
http://lawinenwarndienst.blogspot.co.at/2012/12/details-zum-todlichen-lawinenunfall-im_20.html
A group of Russian skiers lost their way in deep snow and poor visibility off piste. One of them was caught in an avalanche in a chute, unfortunately in the poor conditions his colleagues did not notice him missing until they got to the valley. He had managed to trigger his ABS, but in the chute this wasn't able to save him.
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FAQ
Can't wait to wake up, all jet lagged from 15 hours of travel time to Zermatt. A nice fresh dump of snow will no doubt be better than any Swiss Espresso could do for getting me raring to go! 
