18z GFS has a similar run up as 12z. Heights building once again over Greenland, cold swinging down from the Arctic across the continent. Light snow in Alps again around 02/03 January.
The high pressure over continental Europe still prevents deep cold from really getting a grip on the UK. Though there would be snow in the north at times.
From 05 January there would be a sustained period of precipitation over the Alps, but 18z FI is too warm and a lot of this would come as rain lower down, snow at altitude.
All in all a could do better type of run... (given the potential out there )
Another big snow storm is steaming towards Japan...
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
A trend is starting to appear in the models. And potentially quite a snowy one!
00z GFS follows much of the pattern set by the two previous runs. Building high pressure over Greenland which provides the block. A cold Arctic low pressure moves down over Scandanavia and heads towards Europe where it meets high pressure building over continental Europe.
So first off as the high pressure builds over the Alps it should start to clear over the next day or so bringing some blue skies and sunshine from Thursday. Temperatures will be a little above average as we approach New Year, but on New Year's day (or probably from the evening) the temperatures start to drop swiftly as the Arctic air moves in. A 15C drop by 03 January with cold temperatures across the Alps.
The low pressure from the north brushes across the Alps on the 02 and 03 January probably bringing some light snow with it.
From the 05 January temperatures start rising. The low pressure in the north starts making it's presence felt in the Alps. Precipitation starts to pick up, on the 08 and 10 January in particular as the low pressure starts to move down through Europe. Rain at first in some places, but significant snow swiftly afterwards.
Ensembles for the Arlberg
Ensembles for Alpe D'Huez and Les Deux Alpes
Ensembles for Cairngorm
ECM has a similar picture. Perhaps keeping the temperatures slightly cooler over Europe.
Parts of the UK could also see fairly large snowfall next week.
Obviously a lot could change between now and then, but well worth watching!
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Hurrah for snow in the Alps for 2nd week of Jan! Please Although could you please ensure Gatwick and Geneva airports are snow-free on the 9th
nozawaonsen, many many thanks for all your postings this season, both for the UK and ski areas
06Z GFS is now suggesting a LOT of snow across the Alps in the second week of January.
This chart shows the high pressure over Greenland and the Arctic low pressure moving south from Scandinavia towards the Alps a week on Thursday (+192). Later in FI the Atlantic sends a couple of low pressure systems into the mix as well...
Looking at the ensembles (a couple of posts above) you can see the way precipitation increases significantly from about the 08 January. Temperatures would also be relatively high (snow line around 1400m at times). The most precipitation would be around eastern Switzerland and western Austria. Parts of the Tirol and Arlberg would be buried.
Obviously almost all the snowfall is in FI so could all change and almost certainly will not look like this. But the trend for further substantial snowfall in the Alps in the second week of January is starting to get some momentum. Well worth watching!
I'm out in Les Carroz on the 15th of Jan and i'm normally very lucky with snow or unlucky from a driving point of view as always end up having to put chains on at some stage. So the theory of a snowy week just before then would be just about right
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Arteta10, welcome to snowheads. Putting the chains on at the start of your holiday is ideal. Putting them on just to get out of a resort which hasn't seen a flake all week is not so cheerful.
After all it is free
After all it is free
No, that's not so good
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nozawaonsen, totally weird weather here today. I'm just back from driving down to Kufstein from my village here on the Samerberg (at 800m asl) - -3°C here and a light drizzle (i.e liquid) and misty. Down the valley in Nußdorf (about 150m lower or so) fog and driving snow 0°C. Drive on down to Kufstein temperature +1°C and big fluffy snow flakes, still misty/foggy.
Drive back via the A93 and A8 and once again the whole gamut of temperatures and precipitation. This is all within a relatively small area but in the mountains. After filling up my tacho only showed about 45kms driven since filling up!).
The position and influence of the warm front is interesting to say the least - heavy snow most of the day at Obersdorf in Allgäu (1st day of the 4-Hills Tournament). The German weather service basically will not give a definite forecast for us here as it is constantly changing depending on the strength of the systems driving it. They just say it will be cold and damp!
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12z not shaping up so well for FI...
Less precipitation to play with as the high pressure over continental Europe refuses to give ground to the low pressure either coming in from the North or in from the Atlantic...
Ensembles generally show more precipitation in FI, but operational run is not an enthusiast... Will have to see if the snowier trend can make a come back tomorrow...
Shorter term the pattern remains that it should start to clear up across the Alps from tomorrow, cooling down rapidly over 01 and 02 January.
Samerberg Sue, sounds most odd. Still at least it isn't boring!
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
Hmmm, I think I was perhaps being a bit harsh on the 12z GFS...
Looking at more of the ensembles. You see a clear pick up from 05/06 January in terms of potential precipitation. Although the operational doesn't produce quite as well as 06z (which would have probably closed down a number of areas...), it does still offer some snowy options. Light snow on 02/03 January and more on 06 January before returning on 12 and 13 January. Not bad. And a number of runs were a lot snowier. Have a look at the control (dark blue) for Chamonix.
The key point being that snowy options are being opened up across FI.
ECM 12z is worth a look too. Arctic low pressure storming the UK at the end of next week (06/07 January) and reaching down to the Alps... Time for people (airports, train companies, water boards etc) to start dusting off their cold weather crisis plans again?
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Certainly looks like the second week of Jan could be more interesting than next week. 'Interesting' is what we like assuming I can get there!
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Should be some very pleasant sunny weather over the next week.
Temperatures will be just above seasonal average for the next few days, but dropping steeply on Sunday 02 January from around 0C at 1500m to -15C which is going to be pretty noticeable!
Monday first thing.
A low pressure system will brush against the Alps late on Sunday into Monday possibly bringing a few cms of snow with it, before sunshine returns. By the middle of next week temperatures start to recover a little, up to -5 to -10C at 1500m.
From Thursday 06 January the pattern looks like changing significantly as low pressure begins to make its presence felt. At present Thursday 06, Saturday 08 and Monday 10 could all see snowfall. Further east in Switzerland and Austria this would continue with heavy precipitation increasing throughout the week. But temperatures would also be high with the snow line around 1800m+ (possibly higher).
However. The high temperatures and very high levels of precipitation come mainly from the operational run at present which is showing itself to be something of an outlier without significant support. So far. That isn't to say the general trend for the second week of January is not for an increase in temperatures and precipitation, it is. But the mean keeps temperatures below freezing whilst still increasing precipitation (if not quite nearly so much as the operational).
What is at stake is how much the Atlantic gets to push in. In the second half of the GFS run, high pressure sitting over continental Europe prevents a deep incursion of the Arctic cold over Europe and in the end invites the Atlantic in (leading to warmer temperatures and much higher precipitation). ECM keeps a stronger block out west, weaker high over Europe and allows cold low pressure to move down from Scandinavia.
The current GFS set up would mean that the southern half of the UK would probably escape the worst of the cold weather, but it could well change. The Northern half of the UK could well see more snow.
In the Alps then a week of broadly settled, sunny and from Monday cold weather with a little snow probably on Sunday night. Followed by a week of far more unsettled weather, possibly very unsettled, which could bring a lot of snow to higher altitudes.
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
I'm sure NOZAWAONSEN will put me straight but am i right in saying the latest charts show momentum is building towards being very snowy from then 5th and especially the 9th of Jan onwards in the french Alps or am i getting over excited. Probably too much cheese over xmas. Does anyone else really look forward to his updates or do i need to get out more
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Just glanced at 12z GFS...
Splits the Polar Vortex week on Friday.
Cold and snow flood down across UK on Saturday...
And on across France and into Alps...
Of course it's a long way out and probably won't happen quite like that, but worth watching - it might complicate travel...
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Oh yes i like this
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
were travelling to manchester on sunday
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Control and operational seem to have swapped places on 12z GFS. Plenty of snowy options still out there, but little clarity or confidence in how they might play out... Operational has calmed down a little.
milnerhome bit early to be worrying about anything, not to soon to be keeping a watch out...
Off to St Johann on Sunday for a week returning 9th Jan. What are your thoughts on conditions through the week and also travel home from Salzburg to Belfast on 9th!
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
johnboy, best guess is after Sunday much of next week will be sunny and cold. Towards end of week will start getting more unsettled. As for weekend after, this all a bit uncertain. Certainly could start to get more complicated, but far too soon to have any real sense of what will happen!
milnerhome, what you over in Manchester for? You flying out somewhere?
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Ricklovesthepowder wrote:
milnerhome, what you over in Manchester for? You flying out somewhere?
flying into Manchester from Turin.
After all it is free
After all it is free
milnerhome I'm talking about next weekend not this if that helps. In any case it could easily all change between now and then...
And despite last night's 12z for the moment the balance is for the snow to stay north... For now...
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The ensembles a few posts above show very clearly how the weather pattern looks like shifting quite dramatically from the end of next week - around Thursday 06 January. Up until then high pressure remains dominant over the Alps. A brief incursion on Sunday evening may bring some light snow. Also on Sunday temperatures become quite a bit cooler. By and large it should be settled and sunny.
By Thursday though low pressure starts to make itself felt. Initially this is from the low pressure system pushing down from the Arctic. Yesterday evening's runs showed the polar vortex splitting then driving down through the UK. This morning though the models suggest the high pressure over Europe is too strong and the low pressure cannot really prevail. Much of the UK would be wet, but not so snowy except in the far North (but this is borderline, worth watching as it will likely shift back and forth).
But the Atlantic then siezes it's opportunity. Look at all the low pressure systems lining up across the Atlantic in this chart...
This procession of low pressure systems then roar across into the Alps on the back of the jet stream.
As the milder Atlantic systems arrive the temperatures rise, falling as they pull through. Although the detail will be very subject to change it looks like one system comes through on Saturday 08 January with the snow line around 1600m+. Temperatures drop by Monday 10 January, before rising midweek (snow line 1800m+?). Falling again before the next system arrives Saturday 15 January... Looks snowy at altitude... Could be windy at times... (and could all change by this evening! )
So the first week of January looks settled. The second week anything but...
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Great! Thanks nozawaonsen
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
Quick look at the 12z GFS as it came out.
A few thoughts on how it might play out in a week or so... (based on this evening's GFS...)
- Looking milder in the UK for a week on Saturday than it was yesterday evening. So rain for much of the country, cold in the far north. But it's a week away and the positioning could easily change.
- Looking like a lot of precipitation coming into the Alps in second week of January.
- But the strong influence of the Atlantic will drive temperatures up.
- So could be heavy rain lower down. Heavy snow higher up...
- The snow looks like it would continue for much of the second week, with a pause around mid week.
A few more thoughts a little later in the evening in between champagne...
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Only just joined up but this thread is my new crack pipe! Thanks for your efforts. Should get to Morgins PDS around lunchtime on the 6th.
Last edited by And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports. on Sun 2-01-11 21:35; edited 1 time in total
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Snow Hound, Welcome to
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Happy New Year! Got completely distracted last night by Chinese lanterns and bottles of champagne floating by...
Plenty of blue skies over the Alps... High pressure in control... Cold Arctic air moving down over Scandinavia and then heading east... This cold air will reach the Alps tomorrow and drop the temperatures by 10C. At the same time the edge of the low pressure system will brush over the eastern Alps possibly bringing some light snow during Sunday, before the sunny weather returns...
Then from Thursday the pattern shifts... and the first in a series of Atlantic low pressure systems moves in...
Temperatures will rise. By the end of Thursday 06 January at 1500m it will be between 3 and 5C in the western Alps and 0 and 3C in the eastern Alps.
And as the low pressure systems move in they still look like bringing large amounts of precipitation for much of the second week of January.
Here is where the position of the jet stream will be important...
Over the last couple of days most of the runs have had the jet stream feeding the low pressure directly into the Alps, the last couple of runs have had an ever so slightly more northerly track which has meant much of the precipitation has gone just north of the Alps.
This will undoubtedly shift back and forth producing various different options over the next few days (as an illustration 00z had the initial precipitation hitting the Alps at an angle so it crossed the western Alps, but went north of the eastern Alps, the second wave of precipitation went north of the western Alps then drove back down over the eastern Alps... you can see it in the 00z ensembles quite clearly...).
It looks like mid week (Tuesday 11 January and Wednesday 12 January) a high pressure system will work its way in between two low pressure systems.
This clear spell looks like dropping temperatures quite sharply (dropping 10C) and then as the next system arrives lifing them quite rapidly (rising 10C).
Temperatures are clearly going to be important as the precipitation comes through. Could well be rain at low levels. But still carries the potential for a lot of snow higher up!
Back in the UK it still looks like next weekend will usher in cold weather in the north, but it is a lot less clear that it will be cold further south (ECM has been something of a cheerleader for the idea, at present it is far from clear).
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
So it's too close to call then.....i'm watching with great interest....come on the snow!!
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Arteta10, for the UK next weekend I think the chances are that any snow will be more likely to be in the north, could be some nice fresh falls for the Scottish mountains (from midweek). It could change, but the likelihood of snow or a return to deep cold across the country has been looking less likely over the last day or two (it looked possible in last Thursday evening's models, but hasn't real picked up momentum since then, worth watching though and the detail will clearly sharpen up).
In the Alps the theme of the the Atlantic arriving is pretty strong and has been for a few days. I think the arrival of a series of low pressure systems in the Alps in the second week of January is looking more likely than less.
That said it is still some time away and there are certainly a few things which could complicate this (in rough order to my mind)... the amount of precipitation being modelled turns out to be less on the day, the jet stream drives the low pressures to the north of the Alps, the systems take longer to make their way across the Atlantic, temperatures rise significantly meaning it is more rain than snow, high pressure builds and keeps the Atlantic at bay...
But for now (and accepting it could all change) some sort of snow in the Alps and the Scottish mountains from next weekend is looking quite possible...
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Here is a rather good example of how you can be peacefully watching the Atlantic calm and suddenly...
A weak band of snow showers looks like crossing the eastern alps tomorrow, clear in the west. Temperatures fall, more steeply the further east you are...
Tuesday and probably Wednesday look good for sunshine (though even by Wednesday there is the possibility of a little snow in the west). Thursday 06 January sees the low pressure systems starts to move in in force...
Temperatures rise with freezing level about 1700m+ in the east, possibly about 1900m+ in the west going into the weekend. Fairly heavy precipitation starts coming through into the western Alps on Thursday, potentially rain lower down, snow higher up. The initial system misses the eastern Alps.
Temperatures start to drop a little on Sunday (09 January) in Monday (10 January) as further snow comes through into both east and west.
Quite sharp see saw of temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday as the temperatures fall away to between -5 and -10C at 1500m (lower the further east you are). Before rising right back up to what they were at the weekend.
Precipitation then continues all the way through to the weekend starting to trail off by the end of the weekend. Very heavy precipitation for Austria and eastern Switzerland, moderate in Italy and a little less in France.
As the weekend (15 and 16 January) arrives, deep in FI, temperatures look like they might just drop quite quickly... as high pressure build over Greenland and Arctic cold floods down into Europe... (very end of the run mind!)
Obviously the detail is very subject to change!
But the second week of January still looks pretty snowy at altitude to me.
Back in the UK and this evening's runs pushed the cold slightly further south. Snow possibly as far south as the Midlands by next weekend - my guess is this will chop and change though...
Interesting week coming up seeing whether these patterns will strengthen or fade away...
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Quote:
But the second week of January still looks pretty snowy at altitude to me.
just the good news I was looking for - off to read the detail
Why have I not read this thread before?
RandomSkier, still quite a way out! Could all change.
ECM this evening is suggesting a pattern which could bring in stronger high pressure blocking and cut off the Atlantic next weekend... That would probably make it a lot colder over Europe (and the UK), but would mean the low pressure systems could be less likely to reach the Alps meaning there would be less snow... Or at least in the way GFS is currently predicting it. We'll see.
It will be interesting to see if the different models start to pick up the same pattern over the next few days.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Quote:
RandomSkier, still quite a way out! Could all change.
But. Almost all of this heavy precipitation is in FI.
So let's see how it looks tomorrow morning...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
nozawaonsen, any news?
After all it is free
After all it is free
nozawaonsen, snowing fit to bust here right now and according to the web cams in my area (northern-east Tirol and Salzburgerland) it seems fairly widespread. Looks like we have had several centimetres overnight and it is still falling out of a fairly heavy looking sky.
Better go get the snow shovel and start keeping the car free!
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Samerberg Sue, great news!
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MoodyFFS, this morning's output so far holds the trend, the detail shifting around a little. Snow looks like arriving in France as soon as Wednesday, a few days later before a system lands a direct hit on the east, the pattern shifting a little later in the following week with more precipitation coming east than west.
Should be sunny in much of the western Alps today, though that weak band should be coming through the eastern Alps (sounds like it is quite strong near Samerberg Sue!).
ECM 00z FI didn't build the pressure across the Atlantic, leaving the door open...
FAQ
Poster: A snowHead
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They just say it will be cold and damp!
