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The All New 17/18 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Enough snow = n + 150mm
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Cold dry powder still in gorgeous condition. Visibility tricky at times, but a beautiful rosey sunset this evening.

This week the eastern end of the northern Alps continues to hold out the most likelihood for fresh snowfall, with good potential for snow Wednesday through Saturday. In the south and in France considerably less so, but more in the way of sunshine.



(Remember not to take the figures on this too seriously).

Further out 12z GFS flings this into the mix.



As @Chadspurs40, mentioned that’s been cropping up a bit on one variation or another in a few runs. It does have some ensemble support as well, though as Langball says it’s too soon to take it seriously. If by this time tomorrow it (or something similar) is still showing and ECM starts to pick it up maybe time to take it more seriously.
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To be honest, it's mainly just wishful thinking. I'm driving down to meribel on the 30th and some fresh snow for NYE would be amazing..!
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@kitenski, yes the UK can be added in. You can get the hourly Arpege charts for the UK on TheWeatherOutlook already. The link is:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/arpege.aspx?run=na&charthour=1&chartname=ukpreciptype&chartregion=uk-region&charttag=Precip%20type
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18z GFS again sends the Atlantic crashing through just after Christmas.



If (and it is if at this stage) that happened you’d see heavy snow, stormy weather and at least initially milder temperatures followed by cooler weather in the Alps. Be interesting to see how that looks tomorrow.
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Driving down to Val Cenis on the 28th looks like it could be fun if that pans out.
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@nozawaonsen, would that scenario also bring snow for Scotland and cold for the UK?
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Back end of the week still looking snowy in Austria. If it’s sunshine you‘re after head west.

After Christmas though things look like shifting.



This would initially arrive in the Alps relatively mild and stormy before becoming much cooler bringing snow to low levels.

Be interesting to see what ECM makes of it.

@kitenski, the 12z GFS would be cold, violent and snowy in Scottish hills. But earlier runs had it mild, violent and rainy. So time will tell...
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Best start to a season for 21 years according to snow-forecast...

“Snow-Forecast Data Shows This is The Best Start to the Season in The Alps for 21 Years

Research in to early season snow stats has revealed that this is the snowiest start to the season for 21 winters “Although 1998, 2011, 2012 and 2008 were just as snowy in some Alpine resorts, we have to go all the way back to 1996 to find a ski season that was notably better in terms of early season snow depths across the whole of the Alps,” says Snow-Forecast’s Robert Davies. “

http://www.snow-forecast.com
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18z GFS once again shakes things up from around 26/27 December.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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@nozawaonsen, shakes them up how?

Concerning the marvelous season start, i cant wait to get down. Only 3,5 weeks to Ischgl!
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20-30cms snow for many places in Austria Thursday through to Saturday.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
nozawaonsen wrote:
18z GFS once again shakes things up from around 26/27 December.

Also seems to suggest it lasting until around the 30th?
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
nozawaonsen wrote:
@kitenski, the 12z GFS would be cold, violent and snowy in Scottish hills. But earlier runs had it mild, violent and rainy. So time will tell...


Thanks, pretty normal for Scotland to go either way!
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Very mobile patterns as they say, with all the atlantic driven weather coming up. Keep an eye on twists in the jet stream and what's happening upstream....east coast of US, possible greenland high pressure build. But for the current model outlook GFS has definitely been in the lead re. 27-29th, GEM has the low a little north, and ECM a little later. So details will change but good to see support build, with signs of Azores pulling out further west again even if only temporarily.
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GFS shows this

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=3436&model=gfs&var=93&run=18&lid=OP&bw=

This is just for Filzmoos in skiamade, Austria but shows warming 24th-27th then temps fall away again with snow from 28th. Hope that's true!
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Winter solstice this evening. Days start getting longer.

Still looking like some more unsettled weather arriving around 27/28 December.
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nozawaonsen wrote:
......Still looking like some more unsettled weather arriving around 27/28 December........


Early days but Met Office synoptic chart for the 25th looking very similar to the ones that gave us our dump two weekends back - be interesting to see how it's forecast to track over the next couple of days and what mini areas of low pressure spin off and form coming up from the South.

Currently Meteociel showing snow 26th onwards for the whole week
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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=42263&model=gfs&var=93&run=6&lid=OP&bw=

love this type of analysis. thankyou @sussexmartlet

heading to MOrzine next week. not sure could have wished for a better forecast. hope it pans out......
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A couple of bands of snow crossing the Alps on 26/27 and 28/29 December on 18z. Would be stormy with temperatures up and down. Still shifting from run to run at present.
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Thanks @nozawaonsen, keep it coming! Im a "lurker" not a contributor to this thread, but thank you to you and the others who keep me glued to the screen as I count off the days to my next outing.
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Another big storm set to roll in.

France and Italy will get blasted after Xmas.

Upwards of 100cm.

Japan still the best place to go.

It is not even January and Niseko has already seen more snowfall than most Alps resorts will see all season (~500cm)
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I love this..... I simply love this time..... Smile keep those forecast updates coming!!

I'm heading to Chamonix on the 26th for ~10 days, there is already nice snow, with 2 more substantial dumpings showing on the charts at the mo.....

I love the anticipation, the daily vagaries of the changing forecast and the likely prospect of fresh powder falling when we arrive .....

As Oscar Wilde put it so well :

' This suspense is simply terrible, I hope it lasts.....' Very Happy Very Happy
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00z GFS now showing five (!) bands of snow heading towards the northern Alps between 26 and 31 December. ECM not quite buying that yet, so I wouldn’t count on it, but still...


http://youtube.com/v/Rcvo4U33_L4
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Whitegold wrote:
Japan still the best place to go.


If you want to travel half way round the world, get a 2nd mortgage and like meadow hopping, short descents and whiteouts

Alternatively there is Europe on your doorstep for blue skies, proper terrain and Cheese Fondue. It’s not short of snow at the moment either 😉
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.

Some good lenticular clouds this morning.
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Mmmm Lentils snowHead
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Glad I've got a set of snowsocks then Very Happy
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
[quote="Whitegold”]

Japan still the best place to go.

[/quote]


BobinCH wrote:
If you want to travel half way round the world, get a 2nd mortgage and like meadow hopping, short descents and whiteouts

Alternatively there is Europe on your doorstep for blue skies, proper terrain and Cheese Fondue. It’s not short of snow at the moment either 😉


Japan = day after day of thighdeep powda like fluffy little clouds.
Europe = the odd day of ankledeep sludge that is tracked out by 10am within a mile of any lift.
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Nozawaonsen house

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Quote:

Japan still the best place to go.

Ssshhhh...
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Whitegold wrote:

Japan = day after day of thighdeep powda like fluffy little clouds.
Europe = the odd day of ankledeep sludge that is tracked out by 10am within a mile of any lift.


verb (used with object), exaggerated, exaggerating. 1. to magnify beyond the limits of truth; overstate; represent disproportionately
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He's just trying to distract attention from the snow drought in much of N America. wink
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Must never go to Japan skiing as I don't like powder. It means the piste bashers have not done their job snowHead
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@Whitegold, hahaha except that Europe’s plastered with snow with more forecast. Didn’t you notice?

Great start for Japan but was pretty shoddy for much of last year...

And poor old US is having a shocker... hope it improves for them!
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pam w wrote:
He's just trying to distract attention from the snow drought in much of N America. wink


Please don't remind us folks in NA! But the worm is turning, and the snow train looks to be about to start chugging across the mountain ranges...



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Levels for us down Sarf have been severely reduced in the latest forecasts Sad
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Courchevel webcam reports 13.1c currently...

Scorchio!

Edit - oh hang on, I just looked again and it says 18.7c Laughing Someone must be having a BBQ underneath its heat sensor

https://www.feratel.com/en/webcams/france/courchevel-la-tania-les-3-vallees.html
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pam w wrote:

Some good lenticular clouds this morning.


Nice photo - does that mean there was a föhn?
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