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The All New Weather Outlook 25/26

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Quote:

over time the foam in the liner can harden and plastics in the shell stiffen up


@polo, I find that a little unlikely ... maybe Bob Lange's early efforts, but not modern designs, surely?

Anyhoo, back to the weather, I thought I was going to fire up the barbie at lunchtime, but it's not looking too likely rolling eyes
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Well there's a change on the way again from next weekend, nothing dramatic relative to recent snowfalls but interesting how the season long pattern is still playing out, just a bit weaker now. High pressure over western europe forms a decent block again this week (1500m temps over 10c in alps) with lows over uk, iberia-med, and eastern europe. But the strong +NAO potential never manages to hold on for long...could easily see this default pattern ruin a winter but this year the jet keeps defying logic somehow and turns SE once it hits the UK, ie quickly turning a poor looking pattern into a good one.

The next episode does feature a saggy scandi high though....so the jet runs too far south for any deep cold link from the east, at least initially.

EC46 for week2, 13-20th, sums up the seasonal pattern pretty well I'd say


And GEM, GFS, ECM means for mon 13th below, still a bit messy, all a bit too far SW....cold air gets close to the east end fri-sat before NW airflow moves in sun-mon, so central alps remain stuck under mllder air. The eastern low doesn't manage to phase with the atlantic low, so you end up with a wedge of heights and mild air inbetween the two colder airmasses.



In plain english.....sharp drop in temps from next weekend, east first, then west....but still looking at +ve 1500m temps in general, 4c seems to be the average, so a 2000m FL, but some runs take it closer to zero mon 13th in the NW.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Raining quite a bit now in Engelberg (at village level) for a good couple hours, which I think most forecasts hadn't really predicted.
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April showers anyone?

AIFS for Zermatt and Courchevel


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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Looks to be snowing reasonably heavily to the midstation at Hintertux, albeit not sticking on the mountain sides at least. They are still open down to the midstation and that side area, 51km in total, reasonable offering as we head into May and they become one of the last few standing.
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In Engelberg there's about ~25cm fresh snow off piste at 3000m (around 7cm on piste), which is considerably more than the forecasts predicted. Between 2800 and 2600m it was wet powder but still nice, and the snow line was probably around 2400m. Very nice top up for the last days of the season, and there might be a bit more to come today.
Visibility at the top was limited though.
Other areas had considerably more snow forecasted than here; I wonder if there the actual amounts were also higher
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Looks like a bit more snow up high next week.

Also looking at the webcams for Sierra Nevada I see quite a few people skiing, and not race teams either. Interested to think who might be skiing on a Friday morning in May in the south of Spain!? Particularly when I think the season was scheduled to close last week (albeit it is often extended). Day or two skiing, day or two Alhmabra and a day or two quiet Andaulician town or beach would be a good way to welcome the Summer in!
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Quick scan thru the charts looking for the return of Spring-Summer settled warmth. Computer says no. Textbook north sea low, well placed azores high, FL starts around 2600-2300m sun-mon dropping towards 1500m mid week. I remember seeing snow this low down only once in mid may in the last 10 years. As long as it's all gone by the time lifts open for MTB end of month.....but remember that year you could ski avoriaz (via lifts) in June and MTB the lower section same weekend......like a low level version of Cervinia.

3 mean anoms for next wednesday....almost perfectly set up, but being picky, you don't want to see low's over Spain, potentially dragging the flow too far SW

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Isn't that lovely; heat and rain in winter, cold and snow in spring. A pity the ski season is officially over in the resorts in my ski pass (Engelberg was the last one).

polo wrote:
I remember seeing snow this low down only once in mid may in the last 10 years.

Was that in 2021 by any chance? I remember skiing Austrian glaciers that year in the week between May and June and the conditions were really good.


And @polo a bit off topic, but since you brought it up... do you know regions in which the MTB season already starts in May. I'm in Davos this month (even brought my MTB and bought one here for Ms. Gaper) and keen to go cycling but I think the season here only starts in June...
Thanks!
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@Tropical Gaper, suppose it depends where you were and how full your glass is....didn't see much rain at all this winter, even at 1200m in the NW...not too much heat either, on the good side of standard I'd say. And Spring has been amazing so far, if you like sunny and dry. Can only comment on Haute Savoie area. This week was wet and chilly though, and next week the same....inbetween some sunny days of course, as that's the default.

Think that Avoriaz was one off, yeah 2021, they basically allowed lifts to run again once the closed ski season was over, so we get to May and PdS resorts are now running lifts for MtB as restrictions had eased. Some genius at Avoriaz said hang on we have loads of snow still.....and ski lifts were allowed in early June I think.

Anyway, the only resort I know that always opens for MtB in May around here is Les Gets. Weekends only in the bowl from 22nd on, then full area mid June. AI bot tells me many in Austria and Swiss also open early
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Could see genuine powder days in the alps this week, snow and some very low freezing lines
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@8611, tell me about it... I've been following the forecast for Hintertux and other resorts, and the forecasts for this week jumped from 10-30cm yesterday to about 45-116cm this morning.
I know some might be exaggerated (as often) but even 45cm spread throughout the week with cold weather would already be excellent
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So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Will certainly make an aesthetic improvement, and increase the prospect of the long run to the mid station staying open longer in Hintertux, which makes a big difference to the skiable area. Powder at this time of year has a very short shelf life though. I got lucky enough to head there mid May last year, it had snowed heavily the day before and from the tracks everywhere off piste it had clearly been excellent conditions, but was absolute concrete by the time I got there just one day later.

Still, good for the late season / Summer skiers for sure.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Wepowder agree!

https://wepowder.com/en/weblog/2026/05/11/pa14-over-half-a-meter-of-snow-expected-through-the-ascension-weekend
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@8611, great, thanks! WePowder was indeed where I saw the highly optimistic forecast (116cm) this morning, but I hadn't seen the article yet. Always nice to see them back it up with an article cause the automatic forecast can often just be an odd run or something
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Tignes looks like it is mid-winter this morning. Won't last but looks lovely.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
NoMapNoCompass wrote:
Tignes looks like it is mid-winter this morning. Won't last but looks lovely.


And they're running Lanches, presumably for team training?
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Snowing this morning at village level (1560m) in Davos
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Bizarre weather the last few days in London, sunny at times but chilly and sudden short but very heavy cloud bursts of rain and/or hail.
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Thumping down at the mid station (2100m) in Hintertux, powder day tomorrow for sure
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Snowing on the top peaks in Glencoe on Tuesday...
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@8611, for sure! Tomorrow and Saturday (and maybe even Sunday).

I'm tempted to head there or to Kaunertal Saturday or Sunday, but a bit hesitant with the visibility and wind on Saturday (and that on Sunday conditions may not be that spectacular anymore).

Went for a hike in Davos today though and at 1800m there was already about 30cm of fresh snow. Great conditions even for February, let alone for mid May
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
I'm planning my "Last Hurrah" for tomorrow.

Hoping for 5cm on a soft base, e-mtb to 2,300 up the Galibier road which they are clearing, leave the bike then skin up 600m to where there's good snow cover (rode it a few days ago) while the OH runs from here to the Lautaret Shocked

https://www.skaping.com/serrechevalier/coldulautaret

https://www.skaping.com/valloire/galibier
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Bottled it, weather still on the grim side, if you look at the webcams in the links above, but what they don't show is the wind.

Here in the valley, it's brisk and very cold at +5, but at altitude, it will not be pleasant at all. I'm conjuring up another plan which will still be mildly unpleasant, but Rule Number 5 and all that Laughing
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@Weathercam, and, how did it go?
I ended up giving up on Kaunertal when I found out they were only open from 8:00 to 13:00. Did see quite a lot of touring tracks by the Flüelapass though.

And transitioning into the 26/227 Weather Outlook, BBC reported a mega El Niño is likely to occur this year.

http://youtube.com/v/UEseLvpl9ss
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