 Poster: A snowHead
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A friend of mine was in Baquiera last week when it dumped snow - a fellow powderhead - she said that she was teaching her kids to ski the deep stuff by feel. That’s how you have to do it.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| Cant do Mogals wrote: |
I feel it's my fault...
I booked a ski holiday nearly a year ago and in true style the weather will change to be poor visibility in snow/white out conditions. (4-10 jan)
I did the same last year, should have learnt my lesson. lol
Seriously though, I do think the weather Gods see me coming and go 'aha, lets put a spanner in the works for this!' Weeks and weeks of wonderful sunshine, then bam, snowy... I know we need it, but can it not snow over night and be nice in the day? I really would like to see where I am going as being partially sighted its not cool!
The week after I'm sure will be nice again.... sigh. |
Ah sorry it's my fault, for the last several years I have always gone the second week of January but this year I am going slightly later on the 17th.
The weather is never perfect so you just have to make the most of what you get!
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@Cant do Mogals,
I feel your pain - see my previous posts- i am in Espace same dates -
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@Cant do Mogals,
I feel your pain - see my previous posts- i am in Espace same dates -
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| under a new name wrote: |
| @sussexmartlet, while I guess it depends where you're going, but I think Austria has mostly quite a lot of snow. I mean, yes, sure, we all like fresh snow, but you only ski on the top few cms (kind of, more or less, usual exclusions apply etc.,) So it's probably not the actual end of the world (for catastrophic values of first world problems). |
Oh I know, you’re dead right, and I’d rather be in the alps than at home regardless.
I’m just guilty of being a big kid and I love to be in a water wonderland, it’s just what I love.
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I may have got a few things wrong recently, Austria less likely to grab any headlines now compared to the developing UK situation.
A few days back all the flow was heading east…..too far east right now on 29th, but slowly tracking west into NY. Then we saw that SW low draw everything way too far west for a while but that risk seems to be easing up a little.
So people were right to be dismayed by the dramatic swings in snow output….it’s not the normal level of run to run noise, it’s much more structural as the broad pattern has never really settled down. Also aware that some people want heavy snow while others want wall to wall sunshine 
Still think there is going to be widespread snow to low levels but with some mild air mixed around the 4th…cold - mild - cold first week Jan.
Some big numbers now showing up for western alps…..who knows…..I clearly don’t, but exciting times are coming into the reliable timeframes.
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@polo,
About a foot of snow to fall on Saturday and Sunday then wall to wall sun
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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I’d be happy for snow, more snow and yet more snow. You can keep your sun, if you want that then go to Benidorm!
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| japes1275 wrote: |
| I’d be happy for snow, more snow and yet more snow. You can keep your sun, if you want that then go to Benidorm! |
This!
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| japes1275 wrote: |
| I’d be happy for snow, more snow and yet more snow. You can keep your sun, if you want that then go to Benidorm! |
Spoken like a true snowHead! 
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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The creep south of the trough seems to be a strengthening trend over the last couple of runs, it was visible on the 12z and gaining support now.
Quite typical that high latitude HP gets underestimated and that’s what we are seeing now. The reason for this is because models have a bias towards what are considered typical patterns, eg. A raging Atlantic.
Definitely good signs with broad consensus that a drastic pattern change is coming in the NY, the finer details of snow will start to be ironed out in the coming 3-5 days.
EC46 is looking healthy also, I’m sure polo will give a more detailed update there as that’s not something I’m particularly experienced in.
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| japes1275 wrote: |
| I’d be happy for snow, more snow and yet more snow. You can keep your sun, if you want that then go to Benidorm! |
Only if you ski off piste - never really been for me, and with my new knee I'm not going to start doing that now!
Big turns on a wide sunny red piste with decent fairly fresh snow is me; at 110kg it's what I'm built for (if I'd been born Austrian I'd have dreamt of being a downhill racer, not a slalom or freestyle skier!)
Why would I want to go to Benidorm - can't think of anything much worse than lying on a Benidorm beach...
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You know it makes sense.
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| Alastair Pink wrote: |
| japes1275 wrote: |
| I’d be happy for snow, more snow and yet more snow. You can keep your sun, if you want that then go to Benidorm! |
Spoken like a true snowHead! |
Why?
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Well the snowHeads official motto is ""Love Snow, Live Snow, Eat Snow" 
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Poster: A snowHead
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@Alastair Pink,
Eat snow - depends on the colour
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@Astontech, yeah it's a funny one with HLB, once it sets in you are right that models can underestimate how long it takes to break down, particularly for a true Greenland high. But not so much with Scandi highs in my experience....they nearly always end up at lower lattitude than modelled as it's hard in reality to sustain those easterly winds against the normal zonal tide. Lot's of other factors like whether there's favourable background forcing from the MJO for example, or the strength of the polar vortex.
EC46 is normally not reliable beyond a week or two, but it is having it's best year in a long time so far having accurately forecast all this HLB early Jan, and into week 2. Which is still showing. So no major change in the near term with high pressure to our W/NW and lows from Scandi down to Spain. Pretty good signal for ongoing snow chances in many parts.....and a long way from the Dec dry spell (north).
Week 3 (12-19th) has already flipped over the last few days, now showing a more typical Jan pattern with W-NW atlantic flow and highs to our south. Far far away.
Another good mid range chart comes from NOAA....believe one of their meteorologists compiles it by applying weightings to ECM, GFS output....ie some days he favours ECM as more realistic and so on.
I don't post it often as it's a faff to rotate and crop for a euro view...but here's the one for days 8-14, so roughly 6-12th Jan. Again maintaining Greenland block and NW-N flow into europe.
The strat btw has recovered from those december wobbles, with zonal winds expected to peak around the 9th before dropping again into mid month....no dramas there which is positive as Jan is normally the strongest month.
Looking at the ensembles for NW alps
   
ECM pretty good with the mean not venturing much above zero, but look at the spread around the 3-4th....-8 to +8c, ironically wider than 5-8th, which is more like -10 to 0 range.
AIFS similar....big spike in ppn next weekend, mean is good, spread is large.
GEM cooler and drier....not so sure
GFS in an unusual twist is now the mildest of the lot....with mean, Op and control runs all above zero on Sat....washout below 2000m before turning to snow soon after and then looking better week 2
All in all a healthy position indeed to be in with up to 2 weeks or euro lows on the cards.
AIFS, ECM and GFS 06 snow out to 6th....50+cm peaks
  
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Nothing you can do about it @Cant do Mogals - you just have to make the best of whatever weather you get and it'll still be much better than being at work or whatever Where are you off to? Will there be tree runs for improved visibility? Some of our best ski days have been skiing in heavy snow in the trees
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We're headed to Val Thorens here on the 3rd. Friends were scared about snow cover this early, so we went as snow-sure as possible. Looks like every model is predicting some level of overcast/precipitation. Will be interesting to see how the forecast and visibility develops.
We're driving in somewhat early, hitting Basel around 1 AM on the 3rd. Looks like most models have precipitation and sub-zero temperatures through the night in Switzerland. If that holds, the drive might turn out longer than predicted 
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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| Alastair Pink wrote: |
| Well the snowHeads official motto is ""Love Snow, Live Snow, Eat Snow" |
Ok, well I'm in the wrong place then - this site is obviously for the small minority of skiers who go out in shitty weather. Didn't realise that - my apologies - I am obviously not worthy /s
(Yes I go out when it's snowing, but I much prefer it to be sunny)
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@polo - seems to tie in with what Bergfex is showing for the Ski Amade (ish) area...which I guess is the point! And getting much cooler from tomorrow. Obertauern *looks* Ok on webcams but is only reporting 40cm/10cm and is some way from being fully open. Two weeks now for the snow Gods to do their stuff.
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@sussexmartlet,
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I’m just guilty of being a big kid and I love to be in a water wonderland, it’s just what I love.
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Aren't we all? Don't we all? But almost any kind of skiing beats being in the office, non?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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I think it should be pointed out - yes... without snow there would be no skiing (or probably Snowheads!), but equally without a certain level of visibility us with impaired visuon (& I understand I am not alone on this forum) are unable to feel safe doing what we love. Risk taking I guess is part of the fun, but unless you have experienced the trepidation skiing a difficult run in flat light - or worse, then please have a little patience with those who wished it always snowed at night. We know it doesn' t - but....
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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I hate flat light...but not so much because I mind skiing in it per se, but because my lower back (since surgery), doesn't like to be jarred by an unseen bump or trough. The worry of this can cause me to hold back and have more tension in my body, which only makes things worse.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Got back from Bardonechia last night after epic early season snow, skied Montgenevra over the border in France on Christmas eve before a mega dump hit on Christmas day. Next trip planned is Andermatt in Switzerland early February, fingers crossed for more snow in that area as it needs it.
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You know it makes sense.
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Some higher European stations, such as Val Tho, might see -25c early next week.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| polo wrote: |
The strat btw has recovered from those december wobbles, with zonal winds expected to peak around the 9th before dropping again into mid month....no dramas there which is positive as Jan is normally the strongest month.
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What exactly does this mean? Would strat zonal winds refer to the polar vortex? Don’t we want the wobbles/weakening for colder temps into Europe? Lastly, if my understanding is correct, then does this mean that from mid-month onwards there is a good chance of cold temps since the winds are weakening?
Apologies for all of the questions, just trying to understand better.
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@polo,
Happy days - just been to Tresspass to upgrade my thermals ( big sales price )
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
|
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| sussexmartlet wrote: |
| under a new name wrote: |
| @sussexmartlet, while I guess it depends where you're going, but I think Austria has mostly quite a lot of snow. I mean, yes, sure, we all like fresh snow, but you only ski on the top few cms (kind of, more or less, usual exclusions apply etc.,) So it's probably not the actual end of the world (for catastrophic values of first world problems). |
Oh I know, you’re dead right, and I’d rather be in the alps than at home regardless.
I’m just guilty of being a big kid and I love to be in a water wonderland, it’s just what I love. |
Swimming in a water wonderland? 
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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Any SH off soon to Slovenia or Corinthia eg Bad Kleinkirchheim. If the weather discussed here pans out, according to www.wetter3.de, 1.7m of fresh snow by next Monday.
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@Snow&skifan, I think the comma at the end of your link needs taking out, it stops the page opening up
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@cb97, the polar vortex is a 30km high swirl of winds above the north pole driving the normal west to east zonal wind flow. While all layers are relevant, most commentary refers to either the top of the vortex which is "the strat" at 10hpa, or nearer the bottom which is "the trop" vortex at about 10km above us, close to the jetstream.
Yes wobbles are good in both, like we have now in the trop with quite negative AO (meaning high pressure over arctic). The more disruption (via heat and high pressure) to the whole vortex the better for arctic air to spill out into mid lattitudes like europe....next 2 weeks.
But it's also true that they are not always in sync....like right now the strat has recovered to above average wind speeds, but the trop is disrupted and below average. So you never really know which one is leading the other....but I'd rather have the strat slow, or at least not raging strong, to provide some indirect assistance to the lower trop layers to stay wobbly.
It's a pretty spurious link....as are most backgroud drivers. But it's one less thing that might lead to strong westerly mild weather down here into mid month, but certainly doesn't exclude it,.....if that makes sense. And if the strat winds really start to properly weaken again we might see another SSW.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@polo,
Regards the above
Whatever you’re drinking please let me know !!!!!!!!
Ps - I’m referring to your previous comment regarding alcohol!!!
I’m ignoring the Vortex , low pressure over the Azores and going for my tried and trusted theory ( expert opinion!)
When i go on holiday it snows - a lot
Thanks as ever Noza , sorry Polo
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| buchanan101 wrote: |
| Alastair Pink wrote: |
| Well the snowHeads official motto is ""Love Snow, Live Snow, Eat Snow" |
Ok, well I'm in the wrong place then - this site is obviously for the small minority of skiers who go out in shitty weather. Didn't realise that - my apologies - I am obviously not worthy /s
(Yes I go out when it's snowing, but I much prefer it to be sunny) |
I don't think it i a small minority. Most of us only have 1-2 weeks ski holidays, and losing days because the weather isn't perfect really isn't an option.
As you say, most of us prefer it to be sunny, but I think most will still go out if it is snowing, so long as it isn't a complete whiteout (and I have skied a couple of times in that, though not by choice!)
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FAQ
It will be what it will be and the snowblower will remain on standby 
