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The All New 21/22 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@polo, does that (beyond)FI chart suggest there might be hope for snow in Scandinavia early-mid Feb? It's time for me to start obsessing about the possibility of powder for the mid term break snowHead Laughing
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
jellylegs wrote:
Yes, well done @polo, keep up the good work.


+1
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@mgrolf, yes. 100%, there might be hope for snow in Scandinavia early-mid Feb Cool

The chart says so.

Will the chart be right? Only god knows, apparently.
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polo wrote:
@mgrolf, yes. 100%, there might be hope for snow in Scandinavia early-mid Feb Cool

The chart says so.

Will the chart be right? Only god knows, apparently.


Laughing Laughing Laughing
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A better picture from 20 January on this mornings GFS.

6-B140-C73-1-AB2-4008-B33-E-A5004-A267-D8-D

Very similar from ECM at that point too.

6-EF88-D88-C895-4-CAF-A4-AA-1-E0189-E02-E7-B

Though that could end up with the east getting more snow than the west which would still be pretty dry.
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Sadly this thread is as dry as the alps at the moment Sad
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Outlook for snow continuing to look best for Austria at present.



Snowline will be down to the valleys with snowfall accumulating from Thursday (20 January).

Winds dropping by the weekend for Kitzbühel, though visibility won’t be like it was at Wengen.
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Please blow it West!!!
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BobinCH wrote:
Please blow it West!!!


I 2nd that Very Happy Very Happy
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BobinCH wrote:
Please blow it West!!!


No, no, Austria will do nicely.

It's now showing up on Bergfex forecasts Thursday onwards, not huge amounts, but much colder; 30cm in Zell am See, but half that in Obergurgl
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Amounts of snow forecast in Austria now increasing Thurs through Sunday - heaviest on Saturday
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Yes was just going to say looks like weather now building to weekend. Obviously a few days out but could complicate things for Hahnenkamm.

Still looking like primarily an Austrian snow event.

WRF shows some spread into Eastern Switzerland.




http://youtube.com/v/YAO-op1jJAQ
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
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Nice to see you back @nozawaonsen
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
enjoy the freshies out east....

EC46 update has moved the high back over western europe, all the way through it's run out to the end of February!....stuck like a limpet on a rock.....but we can ignore anything beyond month end when it looks wrong Very Happy

Glimmer of hope for a little retrogression on the extended GFS and GEM mean anomalies around month end, accompanied by another dip in strat winds (albeit still above average)
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@nozawaonsen, Excellent to see you showing the science rather than just me just reading Bergfex reports!

Obergurgl amounts also increasing
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Laughing Laughing Laughing won’t be a change till the new moon at the start of Feb .
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@nozawaonsen, quality video! How did they ski so fast on that kit!!!
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Great video Noza. No safety netting, no helmets, 230cm straight skis. We’ve gone soft Toofy Grin
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Back on this thread for the first time in 3 years, oh how I've missed it Laughing

In Passo Tonale a little over 2 weeks, be nice to know if a top up is on the cards any time in the run upto 5th Feb... Very Happy
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Likewise coming back to this after 2 years without thinking about skiing. It's suddenly on the cards again. I'm completely out of touch with what sort of winter it's been so far. So, if I were thinking about skiing late February, where has a good base so far, where is looking like a good dump is coming? Obviously the end of February is far too far away to have any idea about conditions, but if you were to go anywhere in Europe in, say, 2 weeks time, where would you be going (on the basis of snow conditions, no other considerations)?
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@J2R, roughly speaking, good very early, too mild over Christmas, been a bit dry recently which looks set to continue except in Austria where snow is arriving on Thursday.
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Thanks. Austria would be my top choice anyway.
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Looking like a little 5cm top up on Thursday should keep the pistes fresh and fast for the coooold weekend. Some more action early Feb?
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@BobinCH, I hope so !
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I am not a meterologist but just an observer. Models always seem to be very keen to perpetuate the current pattern and do not see changes until they almost slap them in the face. Perhaps why anything more than five days out is always of doubt.

The Met Office is effectively telling us that high pressure is around in the south of the UK for the next month (like a horoscope with a few ifs and buts) but I would be mighty amazed if that is the case with February fulldyke coming up.
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BobinCH wrote:
Looking like a little 5cm top up on Thursday should keep the pistes fresh and fast for the coooold weekend. Some more action early Feb?


Could you help with the URL for these images. I used to get them from www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_746_ens.png (redirect to http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_746_ens.png) but that appears to have got stuck at Sept 2020. COVID == not looking at them for 18 months.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Quote:
I would be mighty amazed if that is the case with February fulldyke coming up.
Lost me there Confused ...What's February fulldyke Puzzled
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@ringingmaster, I used to use the same 'co-ordinates at the end' url Couldn't seem to get that to work, so went from the top page and got to here:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=2914&model=gfs&var=201&run=6&lid=ENS&bw=

Type in the name of the resort and Bob's your uncle (and if he is could you ask if we can borrow his chalet?),


Last edited by So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much on Thu 20-01-22 9:07; edited 1 time in total
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@J2R, Although late February is obviously far out in the weather horizon, If I was to order a trip right now, I would have put my money on Austria with the general set up we have at the moment. The high pressure system over UK/western part of the continent looks set to continue into February. It gives lots of precipitation to Scandinavia (also mild weather), but occasionaly might give you a Nordstau now and then like we see in the upcoming days. Thus, with the weather set up we have at the moment, Austria has the best set up for snow. I'm going to Alagna in the beginning of March and things are not looking great for new snow for the forseeable future in that area Crying or Very sad
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
It will snow every change over Saturday in Feb as usual no doubt .
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
rogg wrote:
@ringingmaster, I used to use the same 'co-ordinates at the end' url Couldn't seem to get that to work, so went from the top page and got to here:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=2914&model=gfs&var=201&run=6&lid=ENS&bw=

Type in the name of the resort and Bob's your uncle (and if he is could you ask if we can borrow his chalet?),


When are you coming? Might be able to do help you out midweek End March / early April…
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
rogg wrote:
@ringingmaster, I used to use the same 'co-ordinates at the end' url Couldn't seem to get that to work, so went from the top page and got to here:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=2914&model=gfs&var=201&run=6&lid=ENS&bw=

Type in the name of the resort and Bob's your uncle (and if he is could you ask if we can borrow his chalet?),


Thanks - very helpful.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Here comes the snow! At least in Austria. Main snowfall looks likely to be round Salzburgerland, Styria and Upper Austria.

Still it’s going to cause enough problems for Kitzbühel that they switched the downhill to Sunday (slalom now on Saturday).
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@Woosh, thanks. Thinking Mayrhofen on March 12 now. Not so choosy weather-wise or snow-wise this year as I would normally be, as I'll just be relieved to be going anywhere after missing last winter and thinking I was going to miss this winter too.
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@J2R, Mayhforen, excellent choice.
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Austria appears, from Bergfex and wepowder at least, to be getting absolute snow bomb.

Snowforecast however has much less snow predicted. What gives? GFS / ECM fight?
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Any chance of some snow in Verbier before 19 Feb?
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@nunex, yes there will be a chance of snow falling in the next 4 weeks.
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8611 wrote:
Austria appears, from Bergfex and wepowder at least, to be getting absolute snow bomb.

Snowforecast however has much less snow predicted. What gives? GFS / ECM fight?


Hmm, that's unusual. In my experience it's always seemed like snowforecast took the forecast snow depth and multiplied it by pi to get their forecast.

I'd like some snow on the Dolomitisuperski please before February. If yous could go ahead and sort that out it would be much appreciated.
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Bl00dy freezing! Still looking like February bringing some snow action
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