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France returns to lockdown

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Optimistic thread on Twitter from John Lichfield - France is now out-jabbing the UK, and could well have half their adults (so assume all their vulnerable adults) first jabbed by mid-may, and 70% of all adults by mid-June. Given what we’re now hearing (and as was expected) transmission is reduced sigificantly in vaccinated people, then I still think France is a reasonable bet this summer, and a deffo for the winter. I am, however, the eternal optimist!
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@andy from embsay, I am an optimist too and think things will eventually open up. If we are lucky that could be late July, though it seems perhaps more likely only in time to share France's own peak weeks in August.
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j b wrote:
@andy from embsay, I am an optimist too and think things will eventually open up. If we are lucky that could be late July, though it seems perhaps more likely only in time to share France's own peak weeks in August.


You may well be right - though to be honest if the leaks prove correct I think France will be an “amber” country so I could live with quarantine, especially if (as today’s leak suggested) the fully-jabbed (which will be me in a couple of weeks) may only have to quarantine for a 3 days (or possibly even not at all). When it comes to vaccines and not rugby I am fully “Allez les Bleus”!
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@andy from embsay,

With a 40% uptake, France could well finish finish before UK

Twisted Evil Twisted Evil Twisted Evil
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Quote:
France is now out-jabbing the UK, and could well have half their adults (so assume all their vulnerable adults) first jabbed by mid-may, and 70% of all adults by mid-June.


F' me it's not a competition (or it shouldn't be) rolling eyes . Just get it done Evil or Very Mad
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halfhand wrote:
Quote:
France is now out-jabbing the UK, and could well have half their adults (so assume all their vulnerable adults) first jabbed by mid-may, and 70% of all adults by mid-June.


F' me it's not a competition (or it shouldn't be) rolling eyes . Just get it done Evil or Very Mad


I think you may have misunderstood - nothing to do with competitio - however there’s been a (media-fuelled) assumption that France is vaccinating very slowly - the point is they’re not now. So the (media) assumption that everything will be the same come May/June is wrong. 8 weeks ago we were reporting 300 deaths a day in the UK. Today we reported 10.
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@andy from embsay,

I dont think eu are vaccinating slow. I think its very similar to the uk where the bottle neck is the vaccine itself, rather than giving the jab.
Media just likes to compare 1 jab v fully vaccinated.
UK has given 36.6m jabs, if we followed the recommended 3 weeks, then that would be around 20% of the population fully vaccinated instead of the route taken.

Personally, i think countries with rampant cases should maybe take a look at the UK’s strategy and de-risk the most vulnerable.
Other countries that have the headroom, carry on with 3 week gap and manage the headroom from there.
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@Mr.Egg, it looks like the optimal strategy for AZ is a longer gap between doses anyway, so you’re spot on - get some protection for more people.
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I had first dose of AZ in France nearly 3 weeks ago, 2nd in June.
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In is hard to get definative figures and certainly hard to compare rates, but France is making progress.
Quote:

This Friday 2 April 2021 (consolidated data), 9,109,776 people have been given the first dose of the vaccine in France, namely 13.60% of the population. 3,029,747 people have been given the second dose of vaccine, namely 4.50% of the population.

The UK has ony given 31.5 million the first dose and 5.2 million both doses. So France is only about 2 months behind the UK. They may be where we are now come the start of June Smile

With a lot of luck we may have a summer holiday.
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andy from embsay wrote:
if the leaks prove correct I think France will be an “amber” country so I could live with quarantine, especially if (as today’s leak suggested) the fully-jabbed (which will be me in a couple of weeks) may only have to quarantine for a 3 days ...

Is that right? I too will have my second in two weeks, though will have to wait a few weeks longer for my wife. But we will happily go to the Alps in August and be secluded for the first 3 days of return.
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@j b, only based on today’s leaks - RAG classification of countries, report in Telegraph today suggested fully vaxxed people could avoid quarantine from amber countries.
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I would be amazed if the vaccinated get any special privilege before everyone has had the offer of a jab.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
The raw data on France and UK from Johns Hopkins as at 1st April is worth considering without spin

Total Vaccinations France 11,771,461 ( 5,895,089 people with first jab, 2,938,186 people with 2 jabs)
Total Vaccinations UK 36,249,902 ( 26,352,632 people with first jab, 4,948,635 people with 2 jabs)

Vaccinations in week to 1st April France 1,978,787 UK 3,923,909

The UK had administered 11.7 million doses around the 4th February, since then the UK has averaged 442,000 doses per day. If France were able to replicate that rate of vaccination it would take them until early June to have administered the same as the UK currently. If they were only able to match their best week so far of about 283,000 doses per day then that would take them until early July to match.

Unfortunately with so many different figures around it is perfectly possible to present a set of "statistics" which will support any view you have or wish to present. The UK government has been taking a very pessimistic view on the figures and seem to be intent on keeping us scared. A few weeks ago Jonathon Van Tam presented a graphic of the country where my local area had one of the highest percentage increase in infections in the country. The data behind that scary graphic was that 5 cases had increased to 14 cases due to one outbreak in an old peoples home. An increase of 140%.

Because the bulk of Europe is now experiencing it's 3rd wave it is being presented as a threat of a 3rd wave to the UK. Looking at our numbers we experienced the peak of our 3rd wave in early January caused by the Kent variant. We never fully recovered from the 2nd wave before the third wave hit. The bulk of the infections in the third wave in France is the Kent variant which is causing about 80% of all new infections.

Things have been changing so fast during this set of crises that I fully expect European travel to be opened up in time for the school holidays, maybe sooner. Macron has proved that he is keen to have as much travel open as possible during school holidays. He opened up for July/Aug last year, he didn't stop internal travel for Christmas, half term or Easter even though he did stop the ski lifts.
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I was very optimistic that we would ski this year but politics as much as covid itself got know the way so I think its anyones guess as to what might happen this year, I expect a few twists and turns yet
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ringingmaster wrote:
I would be amazed if the vaccinated get any special privilege before everyone has had the offer of a jab.


Looks like that particular leak has changed today - no avoiding home-quarantine for the vaxxed. However it does look like domestically there is likely to be some sort of passport system that can either be vax OR a recent negative test OR previous infection. However all adults could be jabbed by the middle of the summer if the single-shot J&J jab arrives in July.
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Timc wrote:
Things have been changing so fast during this set of crises that I fully expect European travel to be opened up in time for the school holidays, maybe sooner.


Those fast changes have not generally been for the better.
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Claude B wrote:
Shops should close from 7pm but they're waiting on word from the gendarmes atm.


They obviously decided against leniency. Everything closed bar a couple of shops hiring bikes. If any of the few Easter tourists want to hire touring gear or snowshoes I'm sure they have them too.
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Surprisingly busy out there on the main valley road, all be it the brief few km I was on it for there and back, from the Granon.

That said even the Granon had a fair few cars with many a non 05 plate too.

Was chatting with a couple of cyclists (visiting parents) who had cycled around from Vallouise way more than their 10km radius!

One of them a top athlete (ironmans etc) said all through various lockdowns he'd never been stopped when out training, he was quite surprised when I told him how I was stopped twice last year.

Going to be very interesting to see how quiet it is from Tuesday, really looking forward to it Very Happy
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andy from embsay wrote:
ringingmaster wrote:
I would be amazed if the vaccinated get any special privilege before everyone has had the offer of a jab.


Looks like that particular leak has changed today - no avoiding home-quarantine for the vaxxed. However it does look like domestically there is likely to be some sort of passport system that can either be vax OR a recent negative test OR previous infection. However all adults could be jabbed by the middle of the summer if the single-shot J&J jab arrives in July.


And in the Telegraph today, the “avoid quarantine if vaxxed” rumour is back (I wonder if it’s connected to the possibility of the “one jab and done” J&J vaccine arriving in the next couple of months?):

Vaccinated travellers may require only a pre-departure test if returning from green list countries and may not need a second test on arrival.

Vaccinated Britons from amber countries may not have to quarantine and may only have to test pre-departure and on arrival. Every passenger’s locator form will be checked on arrival in the UK to ensure they are abiding by the traffic-light rules.


And possible tests could be the free LF (confirmed with PCR if +ve).

So France may be back on the agenda in summer - fingers crossed!
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Heard last night that there's been quite a serious outbreak centred on the junior school here in La Salle Les Alpes (my commune here in Serre Chevalier) - my neighbour across the field and her two kids have it!

Might not affect the kids that much, but there again kids can have and get over serious high temps, unlike the parents.
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We've had warnings of an outbreak here too. Don't know exactly where. British variant.
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@Weathercam, the guy who looks after the pool at Chamoissiere and his wife and kids have also tested positive this weekend, so no doubt there are more.
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@Hells Bells, and just back from walking the dogs, around the swimming lake and natural lake at Pointless and the skate-park rammed with local kids, all of that age, families and groups of teens etc picnicking without a care in the world.

This time last year the skate-park was interdit.

This morning I was cycling up the Granon again and again loads of people out, and many a non 05 plate.

The supermarket was nice and empty early this morning, spend €100 and get €15 off !!

Like I say will be interesting to see what it's all like tomorrow onwards.
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@Weathercam, it's probably not much better here, but I'm inside out of the biting cold wind we've got. Hubby and son gone out with dogs, but I bet they come back complaining of it being crowded and no social distancing.
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@Hells Bells, thread drift I know, but saw our boy puppy last night, a Le Bez local Laughing

Brownish/golden collie, I've known the mother dog all her life and she's very calm - we've christened him Ullr

Ullr A product of Norse mythology, he's been dubbed the God of Snow, Patron Saint of Skiers, the son of Sif and stepson of Thor, the God of Thunder. Cold-loving, bow-wielding Ullr (pronounced Oool-er) is said to be an expert skater, skier and hunter who would glide around the world and cover the land with snow.
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Quote:

crowded and no social distancing

Not a big problem really, outdoors in these high winds!
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the uk govt is more concerned about the south african variant for various reasons, unfortunately a lot of the european countries have more of this than the uk has and if rates keep rising quickly as they are in france, spain, italy etc this will then mean that the SA variant will probably become more prevalent which will mean that it might be easier to go the USA for instance than places in europe as they are doing far better with the vaccination programme, indeed i have read i a few places that France maybe going on the red list unless it can get its infection numbers down which is a real shame for my holidays. Macron i'm afraid putting his political ideals and ambitions over common sense...... a bit like BOJO with brexit im afraid

hopefully by the end of the summer we will be able to get to france is they can convince their citizens to have a vaccine
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Nearly 400k jabs delivered in France today. They should hit their 10m first injections target a week early tomorrow.

The proportion of cases from the SA and Brazilian VOCs combined is 4.2% (and that includes French overseas territories) and is falling. It’s very unlikely SA will become prevalent, given the dominance of the more infectious Kent variant.

I think it’s very possible France will look quite like the UK in a few weeks.
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andy from embsay wrote:
I think it’s very possible France will look quite like the UK in a few weeks.


It's that time lag that will be a decisive factor in opening up travel with Europe, or not.
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@andy from embsay, as I understand it the SA is more transmissible than Kent variant? Certainly the uk govt are more concerned about the SA one

Do you mean that France will catch uk up with number of vaccinations in a few weeks? I hope you are right but we’ve just topped 31 million so that puts them about 21 million behind.... personally I can’t see it..... supply is tight everywhere before you even add the hesitancy you get traditionally in France
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With similar population numbers, they will never make up the 3 month time lag, even if they manage to match our daily vaccinations. They will have to double our rates, which would be extremely unlikely.

We hope to complete most of our 18+ by the end of July. They will be looking at October.

Opening of travel will be dependent on infection rates, which are still rising in France due to the Political reluctance to shut down over the holidays. Don't expect France to be added to the UK green list until well into the Autumn.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
ajc2260626 wrote:
@andy from embsay, as I understand it the SA is more transmissible than Kent variant? Certainly the uk govt are more concerned about the SA one
I don’t think there is evidence that the SA variant is more transmissible than the UK variant per se. But the SA variant does seem to be more resistant to the effects of the currently approved vaccines (especially Oxford/AZ), which I think is where the concern is, rightly so, and is leading to lots of work on revised vaccination formula and possible booster shots being offered.
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Hells Bells wrote:
@Weathercam, it's probably not much better here, but I'm inside out of the biting cold wind we've got. Hubby and son gone out with dogs, but I bet they come back complaining of it being crowded and no social distancing.


Is "here" Durham, or France? Puzzled
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@ajc2260626, no, SA is less transmissible than Kent, hence it’s at a low proportion of cases and falling slightly. The concern with SA is a study in SA showed AZ to be less effective at preventing mild illness (it was a small study on young people so nobody in the trial got seriously ill). However there’s more work to do as other vaccines (eg J&J, similar tech to AZ) have been shown to be effective, and the dosing on AZ in the SA trial wasn’t optimal. But vax effectiveness is the concern.

@brianatab, I think I may have been unclear - when I said “France will look a bit like the UK”, I meant it’ll look a bit like the UK does today with falling cases and hospitalisation, and around half of adults jabbed at least once. I assume France/Europe don’t have to “catch up” to be opened up - they need a high proportion of the pop vaccinated (plus far lower cases, of course, to reduce variant risk). The projections (in press yesterday) suggest they will get to 55% of the total population, (so I guess 65% of adults?) by the end of June. That’s a wee bit more than the UK is at today and a UCL report today suggests that UK is approaching herd immunity levels (they reckon 75%) when you add in previous infections.

Remember Europe has approved J&J/Jannsen which is a single dose, so if supplies of that come through that will accelerate things too.

I’m still hopeful (assuming Macron doesn’t relax everything too soon) that it’ll look much better by the end of June in Europe. And if not, assuming it’s on the “amber” list then I can live with quarantine for 5 days, if the test-to-release option remains!
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rob@rar wrote:
ajc2260626 wrote:
@andy from embsay, as I understand it the SA is more transmissible than Kent variant? Certainly the uk govt are more concerned about the SA one
I don’t think there is evidence that the SA variant is more transmissible than the UK variant per se. But the SA variant does seem to be more resistant to the effects of the currently approved vaccines (especially Oxford/AZ), which I think is where the concern is, rightly so, and is leading to lots of work on revised vaccination formula and possible booster shots being offered.


Spot on - Kent appears to be dominant everywhere it shows up because of its increased transmissibility. As you say the concern is with B1.351 (SA) that showed resistance to AZ in a trial in South Africa. It’s apparently very likely that all vaccines will prevent hospitalisation/death against all variants (something to do with t-cells, apparently) but they do seem concerned about this one. But the SA trial was very small, the participants were young and the AZ dosage wasn’t what they now believe to be optimal (protection improves if you leave a longer gap between doses apparently).
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I can hear the thread drift police in the distance. Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy
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Supplies of vaccine in France are on the up according to folks I know out there. The problem could be vaccine take up by those likely to need hospital treatment, this may prolong the current beds crisis well into the summer. In Bourg St Maurice healthy under 30s are now able to book innoculations, uptake in the Brit expat community is going well. These bookings took place before the AZ announcements yesterday.
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ringingmaster wrote:
I can hear the thread drift police in the distance. Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy


Hardly, @andy from embsay is hoping for a summer trip as am I.
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@chocksaway, very frustrating that some people can book who are under 30 but here we are still stuck with the 50+ with a pre existing condition.

The exhibition centre in Grenoble opens tomorrow which is good.

The medical center here might get some supply next week but very limited.
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