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Is This Season Going To Happen for The British ???

 Poster: A snowHead
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We confirmed today with our apartment booking in Alpe de Suisi for the end of March that we won’t be going. Lots of good wishes each way between us and them. Sad...
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Finally admitted defeat and moved our booking to Easter 2022 Sad
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LaForet wrote:
ed123 wrote:
LaForet wrote:
ed123 wrote:
LaForet wrote:
Yes, about time we had a holiday, come what may. A few more tens of thousands of dead people is neither here nor there now we'd buried 120,000, and routine NHS surgery delayed for another six months is well worth it.


I do hope you'll be putting your hand up to be one of them.

You're saying you wish me dead?


Not at all- only that if you are prepared to make that sort of assessment then you should be willing to e one yourself. A basic tenet of a Rawlsian sense of natural justice. Alternatively you should be prepared to get a job turning COVID patients in your local ICU. Although you are quite clearly saying that from your point of view a holiday (for you) is worth a few tens of thousands of (other) people dying. I have never heard anyone say that sort of thing before- go and have a little think about yourself.

You understand I was being ironic?

If you'd read any of my previous posts you'd have realised that this was the case. Rather than wishing me dead. Which I feel no amount of circuitous logic can really justify.

Let me explain: I was responding to those posting with the premis that 120,000 covid deaths, or 72,000 excess deaths, or 29,000 care home deaths is somehow not significant in relation to the total population. I disagree strongly with this. I also disagree with the assumption that we could have avoided massive economic impact of covid if we'd just carried on as normal. There was never a 'deaths vs jobs' equation in operation: the UK was going to be hit hard by redundancies and business closures, whatever we did. If you'd looked at some of my earlier posts, then you'd have realised this was my position, to the extent that some Members were complaining that I was banging on a bit about this on what is primarily a skiing-related forum, rather than a political platform. On a by-then-44-page thread, it would perhaps be have been useful to read from at least a couple of pages back, to understand the context of the discussion.

So it looks like one of those typical Forum misunderstandings. Where both sides read posts as overtly offensive when that was never the intention, but react as if it was. And it goes downhill from there.

I'm sure everyone else would just be relieved if we can go back to commenting more directly on the subject of the thread. To which end:
____________________________________________________________

Is this season going to happen for the British?

No. I just don't see the necessary conditions being in place in time for most of us to get out to The Alps this 2020-21 winter season.

Most people aren't going to have been double-vaccinated by Easter (4th April). I'm 67 and this won't happen for me until 1st May. Add another 3 weeks for full effect. Travel insurers and destination countries are likely to need this to apply as a basic criteria for entrance. And that's before any additional requirements for testing before arriving in the Alps and then arriving back in the UK.

Perhaps if you have been fully vaccinated already, then it's just possible the insurers and Alpine countries and UK will all agree that a vaccination certificate plus tests will allow you to avoid quarantine. But the window must be closing on this.


Hi- I'm really sorry.

I wasn't wishing you dead though (I'd reserve that for a very few - who are mostly dead anyway- Mao, Stalin, Hitler, Pol Pot - a good few others actually - but you get the gist).

Yes you are right regards irony and misunderstanding in fora like this. Tone of voice and all the non-verbals are lost and they convey so much.

Again - sorry.
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j b wrote:
ed123 wrote:
... a Rawlsian sense of natural justice...

One of the benefits of Snowheads is serependitiously introducing us to whole topics previously unknown to us. For whcih thanks.

(But don't test me on it, at first look it is massively more complicated than your simple explanation of its implication).


Great- the bit that is important is the thought experiment in which principles of justice would be chosen behind a veil of ignorance; the parties select principles that will determine the basic structure of the society they will live in. This choice is made from behind a veil of ignorance, which would deprive participants of information about their particular characteristics: his or her ethnicity, social status, gender and, crucially, their conception of the good. This forces participants to select principles impartially and rationally.

i.e. what rules would you choose to live by if you had no idea who they would effect you as an individual- the rules you should choose for everyone are the ones you'd be happy with yourself. Seems fair- justice as fairness.

So regards COVID- arguments should be made blind to how they would effect you- for example- I am a healthy well off person with no physical health comorbidities, a normal BMI, white ethnicity, with no living relatives in old age / infirm, I live alone and have an income affected by lockdown, would be quite a partial position to argue from if the argument was obviously for the betterment of oneself- and to the detriment of others.

Needless to say it is a somewhat abstract construct.

Back on topic- we are all doomed. A few might ski in the Arctic in summer?

Will next season happen for many of us?

Expensive / price gouging / busy / odd?
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I suspect that this season wont even happen in Scotland now.

Grim
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@GreenDay, yes I was in hope of a few days in March/ April but looks like I'll be stuck in Fife until all the snow is away Crying or Very sad Now looking a bit iffy for our bike packing trip in May up north following today's announcements on going down the tiers
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Just rebooked a flight scheduled with easyJet for April to Geneva. Now booked for early December to Innsbruck with some early skiing in either Obergurgl or Stubai as the open idea, keeping our fingers crossed on that one. First season since 1983 that we've not been able to ski - on reflection we count ourselves lucky and look forward to next season.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@ed123, thanks, that concise explanation is really good. In a sense it is my instinctive approach - except that I do have human bias.

And yes, for skiers it is all about next season now. If things keep moving in the direction they are now without some new impediment, skiing should be possible next year but there may be some restrictions continuing. I would still be nervous if, for example, I was wedded to the idea of traditional catered chalets.
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ed123 That's a very generous response. I certainly have learned that I probably need to put a bit more context in any post, just for clarity. And that perhaps it is unreasonable to expect people to work back through pages and pages of postings to see what I've posted earlier. I think everyone is just getting a bit fed up as well with having missed out on a season. Even if, in the grand scheme of things, we are very lucky if this is all we have to worry about.
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@LaForet, not at all. Glad you saw it. I was going to pm you also (but didn't).

Yes we are all absolutely fed up and bored.
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GreenDay wrote:
I suspect that this season wont even happen in Scotland now.

Grim
I'm still holding out a small hope for the end of April, early May. Self-catering, obviously. I'll get my second jab by the 14th April. Mind you, will they think it worth opening the lifts, even if they allow the English entry. At least Boris looks like allowing us to go to the border.
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Seems that Cairngorm will continue with the policy of not operating under Level 4 restrictions, which must pretty much cancel the season there given the reliance on low level surface uplift at present (they have only opened the odd day without the Carpark T-bar or Ridge Poma) and the expectation of no part of mainland Scotland being below level 4 before late April.

For residents of relevant local authorities, a little bit more hope that uplift may resume under Level 4 Lockdown as per pre 5th Jan, but the very earliest re-opening date under level 4 restrictions from what can currently be ascertained is Fri 12th March, and if that comes and goes with no relevant reduction in the enhanced restrictions currently applicable to level 4, then Fri 5th April would be the next potential chance (given the intended 3 week staging of changes including phased education return). If not then, it seems likely that uplift will remain prohibited in level 4 and a return to level 3 or below will be required.

Worth keeping an eye on the Scottish Government dashboard map by local authority - here - can't link directly, follow link then click through to interactive dashboard .

Not just the overall prevalence, but some notable hotspots in the large mainly rural local authorities of Highland and Aberdeenshire which contain the ski areas (along with half the Lecht in Moray) likely need to fall more inline with the overall quite low prevalence across these authorities before uplift is likely to be OK'd again.

Of course the weather will be a factor, things do unfortunately have a bit of a feeling of a front loaded with with a spring easing to lockdown vs a back loaded winter with a spring start to lockdown last season! Sad However we look like going into a perhaps a week or more of benign high pressure dominated weather, if the models are right with high pressure centered over or at least very close to Scotland there should be little further change in snow cover and there could be some decent overhead for touring once again for those in local authorities that have access to high enough terrain to still have reasonable snow cover.

So far as access to the ski area bases for touring / hike access the Cairngorm ski road is shut at the Glenmore snow gates and will remain so indefinitely. Only residents from the local authority that the ski area bases are in (or immediately adjacent local authority where your start point is within 5 miles of your council boundary*) can legally access the ski areas for touring. People have been fined for breaching the 5 mile rule by relatively modest amounts, Argyll and Bute residents starting an ascent of Buachaille Etive Mòr from Altnafeadh some 2 1/2 miles beyond the 5 mile mark being a newsworthy example, so if you are going to breach the 5 mile rule doing so ill equipped, fuking up and then calling out mountain rescue isn't the best idea! Laughing
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@snowball, I foresee an issue that may delay visits from England is that HM Government have abandoned the English Tiers. As a first relaxation the intention before the new variant took off was that travel from Tier 1 and Tier 2 areas would be permitted to level 0,1 and 2 areas in Scotland. But now if there is going to be no tiers in England, a few higher prevalence areas could delay recreational / holiday travel into and from Scotland for/to all of England, particularly given the way things unraveled last summer.
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Quote:
I foresee an issue that may delay visits from England is that HM Government have abandoned the English Tiers
"They think it's all over"....It's certainly looking that way Confused
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
haggishunter wrote:
@snowball, I foresee an issue that may delay visits from England is that HM Government have abandoned the English Tiers. As a first relaxation the intention before the new variant took off was that travel from Tier 1 and Tier 2 areas would be permitted to level 0,1 and 2 areas in Scotland. But now if there is going to be no tiers in England, a few higher prevalence areas could delay recreational / holiday travel into and from Scotland for/to all of England, particularly given the way things unraveled last summer.


It doesn't really matter what happens to the tiers in England - once across the border the law of Scotland applies - and if that says no travelling outwith your local authority area then you will be stopped and fined for travelling from England.
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Poster: A snowHead
colinstone wrote:
BBC R4 World at One. Today the results of a Scottish analysis of 1 m doses from Dec - so elderly. OAZ achieved 94% reduction in hospital admissions, PBTech 85% reduction.
Not invented here syndrome.
Swiss have similar problem. I'll happily take it off their hands!!


https://www.strath.ac.uk/whystrathclyde/news/vaccineroll-outworkingfirstnationalstudysuggests/
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
MCL wrote:
@GreenDay, yes I was in hope of a few days in March/ April but looks like I'll be stuck in Fife until all the snow is away Crying or Very sad Now looking a bit iffy for our bike packing trip in May up north following today's announcements on going down the tiers


Join the club. However I did sneak in a day of touring in the Lomands. I was not the only person either. Though making the car park required winter tyres (I saw four wheel drive vehicles fail) and chains if you where in a front wheel drive. I doubt a rear wheel drive would have made it. I could not make it till Saturday by which time the wind and moved the snow about. It would have been epic on the Thursday and the tracks jutting above the snow attested to that.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
ropetow wrote:
haggishunter wrote:
@snowball, I foresee an issue that may delay visits from England is that HM Government have abandoned the English Tiers. As a first relaxation the intention before the new variant took off was that travel from Tier 1 and Tier 2 areas would be permitted to level 0,1 and 2 areas in Scotland. But now if there is going to be no tiers in England, a few higher prevalence areas could delay recreational / holiday travel into and from Scotland for/to all of England, particularly given the way things unraveled last summer.


It doesn't really matter what happens to the tiers in England - once across the border the law of Scotland applies - and if that says no travelling outwith your local authority area then you will be stopped and fined for travelling from England.


It matters when it was the intention to allow travel from Tier 1 and 2 areas into Scotland, but not from Tier 3 and 4 - it means one or two hotspots could restrict the whole of England for non essential travel into Scotland in a way that might not be the case if the Tiers were reintroduced. Travel is restricted between level 3 and 4 local authorities in Scotland, but not between level 0,1 and 2 local authorities and travel through 3 and 4 areas is permitted to move between two local authorities which are below level 3.
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The reluctance to go back to tiers within England is probably because the localities in the higher tiers would inevitably be the more crowded areas. This would then lead to complaints about discrimination, poverty, racism, & covid becoming a disease of deprivation etc.
The use of tiered levels of covid restriction in Scotland seems to be less politically risky. (Not sure why.)
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peerless ploughman wrote:
The reluctance to go back to tiers within England is probably because the localities in the higher tiers would inevitably be the more crowded areas. This would then lead to complaints about discrimination, poverty, racism, & covid becoming a disease of deprivation etc.
The use of tiered levels of covid restriction in Scotland seems to be less politically risky. (Not sure why.)


I would hazard a guess is that some of the reasons in no particular order are, the racism card is not relevant in Scotland there are no significant predominantly BAME council areas. The decisions are not being made by a group of privately educated multi-millionaires being imposed on the poor, which makes the poverty issue less relevant. The poorer areas are actually more likely to vote SNP. Well at least for independence based on the 2014 referendum results so a reasonable assumption, so the decisions are being imposed by people you actually voted for. The level of trust in the handling of the pandemic in the Scottish government is at levels that de Pfeffel has wet dreams about. Finally it does not matter if you are in a large Georgian mansion or a grotty one bedroom flat in Glasgow you are all in the same boat. Though noting the really expensive housing is technically not in Glasgow, but last time all the surrounding councils where lumped in together, and at the moment Glasgow is far from the worst area of Scotland.
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@jabuzzard, hazard a guess? Or broadcast on behalf of the communist, ahem, Labour party Toofy Grin

It's a ski forum, in case you didn't notice.
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jabuzzard wrote:
peerless ploughman wrote:
The reluctance to go back to tiers within England is probably because the localities in the higher tiers would inevitably be the more crowded areas. This would then lead to complaints about discrimination, poverty, racism, & covid becoming a disease of deprivation etc.
The use of tiered levels of covid restriction in Scotland seems to be less politically risky. (Not sure why.)


I would hazard a guess is that some of the reasons in no particular order are, the racism card is not relevant in Scotland there are no significant predominantly BAME council areas. The decisions are not being made by a group of privately educated multi-millionaires being imposed on the poor, which makes the poverty issue less relevant. The poorer areas are actually more likely to vote SNP. Well at least for independence based on the 2014 referendum results so a reasonable assumption, so the decisions are being imposed by people you actually voted for. The level of trust in the handling of the pandemic in the Scottish government is at levels that de Pfeffel has wet dreams about. Finally it does not matter if you are in a large Georgian mansion or a grotty one bedroom flat in Glasgow you are all in the same boat. Though noting the really expensive housing is technically not in Glasgow, but last time all the surrounding councils where lumped in together, and at the moment Glasgow is far from the worst area of Scotland.


Another forum ruined by saddos with nothing better to do than bicker over politics. Surely there must be dedicated places for boring left/right t—ts to score points off each other rather than infesting a skiing forum??
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I think the biggest problem with the tier system is the fact that , for practical purposes, it has to be instigated along County, or district boundaries, which were not designed to segregate the populations.

This leads to problems at local level where one side of the road is in a different area, with possibly very different rules, and lots of little "pockets" with different rules.

Also, practically impossible to police. Too easy to cross into another area for a drink/meal.

Less of a problem in Scotland due to the population distribution.
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ski3 wrote:
@jabuzzard, hazard a guess? Or broadcast on behalf of the communist, ahem, Labour party Toofy Grin

It's a ski forum, in case you didn't notice.


See it's easy to get things wrong when you don't know the person. In addition to having never voted SNP in my life, I have also never voted Labour. I have also voted in every election I have been able to since I turned 18 many years ago. Though I admit to not liking de Pfeffel but there are many prominent life long Tories who hate him too. He is a marmite figure after all.

Everything I wrote is objective fact, and politics is all about perception. For example de Pfeffel and his cabinet are predominantly millionaires, the optics of them imposing lockdowns on the poor are not good. The same cannot be said of the SNP cabinet, the optics are much better which a reasonable person would conclude makes it politically easier for Sturgeon to keep the screws down for longer. It's just an object observation a reasonable person would make. It is I would conclude actually very unfortunate because it is likely leading to him opening up faster than is prudent, which he does have a track record for.
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jabuzzard wrote:
He is a marmite figure after all...

A candidate for the most complimentary phrase that has ever been written about Piffle Johnson!

But back to topic, tiers have been tried and didn't work. After the November lockdown we were left in Tier 3 having had a surge in cases end of October but surprise, surprise, there were lots of stories of people having a day out with shopping and cafe lunch in the neighbouring Tier 2 area. And from reports that was common all over.

Interestingly the government have evaded any analysis of the debacle during December. But while restricted areas like ours had case rates hold approximately steady, overall the UK had a four-fold increase. Quite apart from the horrendous political error (no scientists involved in that one) it highlights the risk of hospitality being open.

(Not being killjoy about hospitality, we very much enjoy going out. In fact tonight we had a takeaway restaurant meal, something we would never have cooked ourselves, and it was our first since before Christmas whereas we would probably have gone out somehow most weeks in a normal year. But if analysis confirms genuine restaurant/pub evenings as major contributors to infection transmission, then the government need to act accordingly - and I mean support the sector as well as leave it closed until safe).
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But when the majority have had their vaccine jab, all be it only the first, but as research is showing it gives good protection , with summer arriving with higher uv levels and warmer weather meaning windows and doors open allowing more ventilation it will be safe to open pubs etc.
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At some point someone is going to have to explain why our COVID death numbers are not actually true and who invented the crazy counting scenario.

'What IS the truth about Covid deaths? Grieving relatives along with MPs and top medics demand inquiry as families reveal more loved ones they believe were wrongly certified as virus victims'
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9305405/Grieving-relatives-demand-inquiry-loved-ones-wrongly-certified-virus-victims.html
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Didn't read the report, as it won't let me access without removing my ad blocker or subscribing.

There are probably many thousands who had been diagnosed with Covid , but died of other existing illnesses. Impossible to tell the extent that Covid played in most cases.

Equally, there are many who died of Covid who would have succumbed to their illnesses within a short period anyway.

There are also many who died, without a Covid diagnosis, but of other illnesses due to treatments not being available during the period.
I include my father in this category.

There are also many who might have died of complications with flu, but didn't because they were shielding and didn't catch it this year. (expect slightly higher numbers next year?)

I understand the grief of some relatives, but in the real world it does not matter what they actually died of, just that they died during the Pandemic.

The only really important statistic will be excess deaths over the previous averages, giving us the overall effect of the virus. As this is usually available on a monthly (weelky?) basis, then there will be correlation to the number of recorded cases of the virus (except in the first wave).

Full international comparisons will then be available.

No doubt some statistician will work out a figure of non Covid, which will be discussed ad infinitum.
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brianatab wrote:
Didn't read the report, as it won't let me access without removing my ad blocker or subscribing.

There are probably many thousands who had been diagnosed with Covid , but died of other existing illnesses. Impossible to tell the extent that Covid played in most cases.

Equally, there are many who died of Covid who would have succumbed to their illnesses within a short period anyway.

There are also many who died, without a Covid diagnosis, but of other illnesses due to treatments not being available during the period.
I include my father in this category.

There are also many who might have died of complications with flu, but didn't because they were shielding and didn't catch it this year. (expect slightly higher numbers next year?)

I understand the grief of some relatives, but in the real world it does not matter what they actually died of, just that they died during the Pandemic.

The only really important statistic will be excess deaths over the previous averages, giving us the overall effect of the virus. As this is usually available on a monthly (weelky?) basis, then there will be correlation to the number of recorded cases of the virus (except in the first wave).

Full international comparisons will then be available.

No doubt some statistician will work out a figure of non Covid, which will be discussed ad infinitum.


Economist has had a go.
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker
Recent moreorless also had a bit.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000s7lr
TL/DR Brit habit to self-flaggelate over own statistics against less accurate/honest measures is strong
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look at excess deaths.... that will give you a better picture
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ajc2260626 wrote:
look at excess deaths.... that will give you a better picture


A genuine question has anyone got a link to the true figures for excess deaths over the last year in UK? I know COVID has been bad but I don't believe the 100k+ deaths figure.
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Interesting stats. Would love to see them updated to the current status. The UK was one of the very few Countries that attributed a greater number of deaths to Covid than excess deaths might have suggested to be the case.

It's surprising how many Countries had less than expected deaths in the couple of months leading up to the pandemic. Did we have a very light flu season that caused a much lower number of deaths? Maybe this led to more people being vulnerable to the first wave?

Additionally, the number of deaths in the summer was mostly less than expected. This might be accounted for by the first wave of Covid taking some a few weeks earlier than might have been the case, but could also be due to lockdown reducing the spread of other viruses that might have killed the vulnerable.
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@thefatcontroller, A linear graph showing cumulative deaths against expected deaths would give a good comparison. This would offset seasonal variances.

One would expect the actual to be the higher, but to see the two lines slowly converge would be encouraging.
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@brianatab, 2019/20 was very mild winter and a very light flu season before COVID arrived and I would like to see that linear graph based on 5 years previous average deaths.
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thefatcontroller There are weekly stats for excess deaths publishied by ONS at gov.uk HERE.

A quick read through seems to indicate around 72,000 excess deaths in 2020 is credible. I must say that I don't particularly see 'only' 72K as a particularly 'good' number, given that at the start of the lockdown the SAGE view was that we should expect around 20K deaths. I know the tabloids this week have been hot on reporting individual cases where a conspicuously non-covid death was recorded in the covid deaths figures, but there are just as many reports of people dying of covid without it being recorded as covid. Some media and CRG commentators seem to feel that just because 72K is less than 120K then somehow, it's a positive thing so no Big Deal. Along with the 'would have died anyway, so it doesn't really matter' view which I can't really understand or agree with.
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The numbers are up in the league of what Billy Connolly called “a lot”. The specific numbers do matter though for those who put nations into league tables - and it then is sensible to point out the differences of data collection.
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The sage committee said 20,000 was a "good" result not a number we should expect
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achilles wrote:
The numbers are up in the league of what Billy Connolly called “a lot”. The specific numbers do matter though for those who put nations into league tables - and it then is sensible to point out the differences of data collection.


We have many friends in India and we now the numbers there are way higher than reported by the Government. Its a very British thing to want to be top of every league table and for some reason someone has decided that we count in a way that wins the death numbers table. Other countries are hiding things..
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Thanks for the link.@LaForet,
Notable that, after the initial surge in numbers, the two lines stayed pretty much parallel (very slight convergence) until mid November, which was possibly caused by the new strain?

Notable divergence after the New year. Most likely the result of People relaxing their guard, and Xmas shopping. Plus the relaxation of rules (which might have been largely ignored anyway) for Xmas.

It does suggest that we have been over reporting actual Covid deaths by about 20%. (maybe even more when other factors are taken into account).
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Looking further into the stats, quite a lot of that late surge was in London and the South East. This may have been avoided it the additional restrictions on that area had been brought in earlier.

God alone knows how many more were caused by the unbelievable exodus to avoid the restrictions.
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