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The All New 20/21 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
There are 3 separate fronts coming in from the west... today, tomorrow and sunday. Getting colder now so it will snow all the way down.

@Weathercam flick thru all these models for Ecrins / Hautes Alps. Date set to Sat 1pm, could see 40cm at altitude. By Monday the peak coloured areas are from 50-100cm, always take the mean Toofy Grin

https://meteologix.com/fr/model-charts/can/hautes-alpes/accumulated-precipitation/20210123-1200z.html
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Charlieehr wrote:
Quote:

it was around +1.5 and light rain rather than snow


Here, at 1344 mts; It was raining all night, quite heavily at some point. From what I see from my window atm, snow line is at 2000 mts. Mad


Probably a question for the avalanche thread but could this be a good thing by getting rid of the weak layer(s)?
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
DB wrote:
Charlieehr wrote:
Quote:

it was around +1.5 and light rain rather than snow


Here, at 1344 mts; It was raining all night, quite heavily at some point. From what I see from my window atm, snow line is at 2000 mts. Mad


Probably a question for the avalanche thread but could this be a good thing by getting rid of the weak layer(s)?


Possibly at lower elevations. Crazy winds will have created further drifts for the fresh snow forecast this weekend to sit on top of.

Here’s SLF’s take on current situation and weekend outlook
Snowpack
As a result of storm-strength southwesterly winds in some places, wide-ranging and compactly-structured snowdrift accumulations were generated on Wednesday and on Thursday, particularly on the northern flank of the Alps. These drifted masses are stabilising to an increasing degree.
As a result of fresh snow and, in some regions, strong velocity winds, easily triggered snowdrift accumulations are being generated particularly at high altitudes on the southern flank of the Alps and in the western regions.
In the middle part of the snowpack there is, in many places, a strikingly weak layer which is prevalent even below the timberline. In the central and eastern sectors of the northern flank of the Alps this weak layer is frequently blanketed by deep snow, and thus, is unlikely to trigger. Particularly in the western sector of the northern flank of the Alps, in the Valais and in Grisons, as well as in general wherever the snow is shallow, avalanches can ongoingly fracture down to this deeply embedded layer inside the snowpack. In addition, in these regions avalanches can also fracture down to ground-level layers of the old snow and thereby grow to large size. On the southern flank of the Alps the snowpack layering is more favourable. Fractures deeper down in the snowpack are not expected.
Observed weather on Thursday, 21.01.2021
In the foehn-exposed regions there were bright intervals. In the remaining regions of Switzerland, skies were predominantly overcast. In the Jura region there was a small amount of rainfall in the afternoon. On the Main Alpine Ridge and southwards therefrom, skies were heavily overcast, accompanied by precipitation.
Fresh snow
Between Wednesday evening and Thursday afternoon above 500 m:
Main Alpine Ridge from the Nufenen into the Bernina region and southwards therefrom: 10 to 25 m.
in the other regions of Switzerland it remained dry.
Temperature
At midday at 2000 m, the temperature in northern regions was measured at -1 °C, in the foehn-exposed regions at +2 °C, and in the southern regions at -5 °C.
Wind
Winds were southwesterly, with southerly foehn wind in the Alpine valleys,
blowing at moderate to strong velocity, intermittently blowing at storm strength in the Jura region and on the northern flank of the Alps;
in the southern regions blowing at light to moderate strength.
Weather forecast through Friday, 22.01.2021
During the night in the western and the southern regions there will be precipitation. During the daytime, it will be predominantly dry to start with. On the northern flank of the Alps and in northern Grisons there will be sunny intervals, in the remaining regions of Switzerland skies will be overcast. In the western and the southern regions, precipitation will set in anew during the afternoon. The snowfall level in the western regions will lie at 1200 m, in the southern regions the snowfall will extend down to low lying areas.
Fresh snow
Between Thursday evening and Friday evening above 1500 m:
Main Alpine Ridge from San Bernardino into the Bernina region: 20 to 40 cm, in the Bernina region itself as much as 50 cm;
remaining parts of the central sector of the southern flank of the Alps, northern and furthermost western part of Lower Valais: 15 to 30 cm;
western sector of the northern flank of the Alps, western part of Jura region, remaining parts of the Valais, of the Gotthard region, central Grisons and Upper Engadine: 5 to 15 cm;
in the remaining regions of Switzerland, predominantly dry.
Temperature
At midday at 2000 m, between 0 °C in the northern regions and -4 °C in the southern regions.
Wind
Winds will be southwesterly, in the Alpine valleys southerly foehn wind is anticipated,
on the Main Alpine Ridge and northwards therefrom: blowing predominantly at strong velocity, intermittently reaching storm-strength; in the afternoon slackening off;
in the southern regions blowing at light to moderate strength.
Outlook through Sunday, 24.01.2021
Saturday
On Friday night, snowfall is anticipated over widespread areas. The snowfall level will extend down to low lying areas. During the daytime on Saturday it will remain predominantly dry and turn intermittently sunny. In the western regions, cloud cover will increase during the afternoon.
Avalanche danger levels are expected to increase somewhat over widespread areas. In particular in the Lower Valais and in the Upper Engadine, naturally triggered avalanches can be expected.
Sunday
On Saturday night, precipitation is anticipated over widespread areas. Only in the furthermost southern regions will it remain dry. During the daytime on Sunday, skies will be predominantly overcast but it will remain dry.
Avalanche danger levels are not expected to change significantly.
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Well just back from a very grim XC session, wet n'cold in sleet/rain and for five or so minutes it started actually coming down like the snow that's forecast for now, but again seems to have eased off

13:00 -1 °C Sud-Est : 127 ° 10 15 4.6 mm

Cam in the garden is zoomed in on the table for the birds so the seed is just about getting covered by a couple of mm

https://stylealtitude.com/serrechevalierweathercam.html

@polo, thanks for that link
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Snow continues to fall in downtown Bend, OR and is over performing the forecast by about 200%. Same goes for up at the ski resort! I had to actually dig out the snow shovel and shovel the driveway and sidewalk this morning. One chore that I do not mind performing! Dishes? Well, that's a whole other story....

Jackson Hole also blew out the forecast, which called for around 4"-6" and received over a foot.

Looks like the Utah ski resorts are finally getting snow after a very bleak and dry early-mid January. They could see over a foot to even 2 feet by the end of the weekend.

Fingers crossed for a snowy end to January, no matter where you are. Okay, maybe spare the people in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere. Besides, you Southerners need to wait your turn!
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Colorado really having a rough go - glad to see some of the swiss cams looking very pretty - safety first out there!
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Well the Snow-Gods delivered about 20+ in the Valley but then the Wind-Gods thought they'd spoil the party and looking up towards one of the top lifts the ridge has been scoured but in the lee of the wind snow still on the trees.

And I almost have Sastrugi in my garden from the wind!



Last edited by Then you can post your own questions or snow reports... on Sat 23-01-21 7:59; edited 1 time in total
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Cheeky 10-20 here according to the robots. Heading high and hoping...
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This AR is about to make landfall around 4am-6am on Sunday. And it's a doozy. Unfortunately it will create all sorts of havoc with California. They really can't seem to get any weather in moderation these days.

https://twitter.com/WeatherProf/status/1353018741697687552

https://www.yahoo.com/news/atmospheric-river-means-massive-snow-214528114.html
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Toadman wrote:
Snow continues to fall in downtown Bend, OR and is over performing the forecast by about 200%. Same goes for up at the ski resort! I had to actually dig out the snow shovel and shovel the driveway and sidewalk this morning. One chore that I do not mind performing! Dishes? Well, that's a whole other story....



So it was a case of two low pressure troughs converging over Central Oregon yesterday that led to the extra 6" of snow. (Only 2" was in the forecast) Both a Northerly flow and a Southerly flow that bumped into each other over the Southern Cascades created a counter clockwise rotation of the storm(s), which is very rare in these parts. The highway snow removal crews were caught off guard and that led to a lot of vehicle accidents. Turned into a nice sleeper pow day for Mt. Bachelor. About 20 miles North as the crow flies, Hoodoo ski area only got 2". Such is the luck of mountain weather.

Weather doesn't seem so easy to forecast and predict these days!
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Snowing heavily at 400m now near lac Leman, should continue all day tomorrow. Lots of rain coming thurs/fri, possibly up to 2000m, but good news is that most models have turned colder Sat, with snow down low Sun-Mon (1st feb), so Tuesdays are on a good run
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Snowing in Sion at 500m last night to raining in Verbier at 1500m this morning. Goodbye to all that lovely valley skiing for a while. Looks like Zermatt got plastered!


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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Sunday looks promising although will probably be avi 4 and then looks like it gets warm again
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Quote:

Unfortunately it will create all sorts of havoc with California

Just seen this on Y.T: lucky B'stards Toofy Grin

http://youtube.com/v/DwzBIbNTo9o
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
It has been a really exciting winter season when it comes to the weather. The negative AO situation started in early december and has lasted the last two months. It looks very likely it will continue at least until mid February, probably longer. On top of that, we have had a strathosperic warming that has lasted from the beginning of this year. The prognisis is for it to finally end somewhere in the near distance, but with a potenial for a new warming afterwards. Candy for weather nerds. Nothing has been normal up around 30000 m for the last month (although SSW happens more or less every second year).

This has given very stable conditions over Scandinavia with high pressure and cold weather. The jet stream this year is the opposite compared to last year. Lately, it has been interesting to follow where the jet will make landfall over Europe. In the latest prognosis, the jet and the lows have been pushed a little more to the south (compared to a very westerly impact for the Amsterdam - Berlin that looked likely in the beginning of the week). That means heavy impact in the western - northern Alps in the days ahead. The big question is to see whether the cold air from the north will then be able to reach further south. Would not be surprised to se a cold outbreak after the next weekend in the Alps but at the momemt it is in the front line between warm and cold air. The avalanche situation should continue to be intense in days ahead so stay safe to those who are lucky enough to ski in the Alps at the moment.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Well in response to the above, all I can say it's pissing down at 1,400m and was still rain at 1,800m and didn't look much better at circa 2,000m, so that's 600m and temp at 1,400 is +3.5 so something not quite right Puzzled
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@Weathercam, temperature gradients are a lot lower during heavy precipitation than during a period of calm weather or high pressure. Could be as low as 0.3 degrees per 100m during very heavy rain/snow. Therefore, not incredible that at +3.5 degrees at 1400m it is not snowing properly at 2000m.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@rambotion, thanks

In fact we
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@rambotion, thanks for that.
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Yes the lapse rate varies depending how saturated the air is. We see that a lot in the uk. I have read it also increases slightly with latitude north and distance east from the Atlantic. In exceptionally dry air it can be freezing on the summit of Ben Nevis but very comfortable in tshirt and shorts down in the car park. Cool
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Deep snow in California. Mammoth reporting over 5 feet in 24 hours. Upper mountain at 6 feet. Hard to ski in that though. It's still coming down. Maybe 2-3 feet more by Friday.

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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Weathercam wrote:
Well in response to the above, all I can say it's pissing down at 1,400m and was still rain at 1,800m and didn't look much better at circa 2,000m


Am curious which part of Woosh's post are you responding to? I suppose you could have responded to my posts on the previous page forecasting a SW flow into France and rain for last week of Jan, first mentioned on Jan 14th Smile

Interesting snowline disagreement in the models for Saturday, as it turns colder....Arome keeps the FL at 1600-1700m in the NW a little longer, while GFS / WRF have it closer to 1300m Sat afternoon
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The weather has been cold in the north. Some of the inlets have frozen up in the Shetlands.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-scotland-55864302
Meanwhile temps have been in double figures in parts of the south Shocked
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Very warm first week in February. Go high or go home...
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Currently +3.5 and been snowing on and off all morning, though temps have risen since the earlier zero when I was having to clear the snow, but Thurs-Sat with these temps it was rain.

I'm just back from the hill after a quick 500m climb and twas a little colder up there, forecast was for much colder temps than we currently have, so what's occurring?
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Short-term local forecasts are less predictable in a way than the general pattern is in the midterm. I use a combination of sites and models for each timeframe, eg 1-3 days the meteociel page with Arome / GFS / WRF freeze levels, then YR.NO (hourly) and a few others. The exact timing and quantity of precipitation is pretty loose, but I find FL's and ground temps are relatively accurate as long as you look at 3-4 models and watch them update closer to time.

Further out the anomaly charts show the mean SW flow continues into next week (france) and then flattens slightly to more of a W flow into mid month.

ECM in a week....ongoing strong -AO, with low pressure across NA and europe. The centre of the low pressure west of France should benefit the southern and western alps....on average, as it's a mean chart.



But the real winners would be Scotland and Denmark on the latest GFS 06z Op



UKMO for next monday shows an impressive Greenland high and an ongoing severe looking easterly across northern europe and the UK

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I don't think I've ever seen such high totals modelled for Scotland Shocked ...or Denmark for that matter.

It'll change obviously, but it does look like Glenshee, The Lecht and Cairngorm (at the very least) will be racking up some very impressive snow depths this week.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@denfinella, good consistency across all the models now, numbers will change....but which way?

Latest ECM below. Difficult to say which way the flow will be over the alps.....but UK is clear easterly. With lows over Scandi and France, you have double trouble Cool

I haven't been keeping up to date with other sources / weather chat, but these are surely some historic synoptics in the making for early next week



And the GFS 12z Op for comparison.....cold slipping lower across UK

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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@polo, late Saturday and on into Sunday could be a snowmageddon on the cards even with reduced numbers travelling to the French ski-resorts, people should aim to be in the resort at the latest my mid to late afternoon.

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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Some of the kids here are already on half term break from today.....the usual 2 week break is extended to 3 this year locally (with a few online lessons), so I expect the resorts are already starting to see a surge in visitors.

Snowline on Sat night looks a bit warm for my liking, not expecting much precip until Sun-Wed here, with FL in the NW dropping from 2800 to 800m approx.
Warmer in the east on the weekend.....but it's a very complex and unusual set of lows coming in, so expecting more change



Windy.com has a handy feature to compare a few models snow depth. The 10day ECM below is currently showing more than GFS, particularly for southern UK and western alps.
Can zoom in easily on any area on the website link, yellow is about 50cm and red 100cm.



What a waste of snow over the north sea Madeye-Smiley

https://on.windy.com/4ml52
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@polo, the last runs have seen a lot of that accumulation disappear Sad

I'm going out hunting Spring snow tomorrow if the snow in the S facing field next to me passes its early morning inspection.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
yep numbers have tapered off on ECM and GFS now for the SW.

Another move lower in the snow for UK.....could East Anglia and even Holland get more snow than most of the Alps?

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It’s a dead cert that snow will be in the UK headlines this week Laughing
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AO index is now approaching -5, can't recall such a deep spell in the last 5 years or so that I've been watching the weather models.

Latest snow chart for the next 8 days. But these numbers are starting to include the next potential weather event in mid Feb.



Looking at the mean charts (ECM, GFS, GEM) you might think, at least I did, that a mild and dry spell was coming for the western alps.....





But those smoothed out averages are hiding what the Op charts are leaning towards....a bitterly cold easterly for the eastern alps at least....GEM the best so far with the undercut, but these aren't handled very well by the models, especailly 8-9 days out....one to watch over the coming days

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Like was already predicted in some models almost two weeks ago, the cold air from the north will be able to go south this week. The week ahead will be extremly cold in CH, DE, AT and FR. As Polo has mentioned, we are in an extreme negative AO situation and it is pushing the jet stream deep south. An effect of that was seen in the Alps was the Sahara sand reaching the Alps this weekend. As mentioned before, this winter is the complete opposite of last year. In February 2020, we got a new record for AO +. No strong indications that this situation will change for the rest of February. For the lucky ones skiing in the Alps, dress well in the period ahead Very Happy
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@Woosh, what about snow? Rest of Feb looking a bit dry in the West?
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@BobinCH, Wednesday has a potential for bringing some snow for the western Alps. Might see 20 cm of fresh snow, but uncertain. Most likely dry after that as the Scandi high streches down to the Alps bringing down all that cold air. It can get really cold and the situation is not unlike 2010 where we can see snow in places in Europe that normally dont see the white gold. The latest EC operational from this morning has a new small low passing through the Alps in the beginning of next week, but it would be dry again afterwards. I believe that this cold episode would last for a good period. And the result would be little snow until at least 20th of February. Enjoy the snow that might fall on Wednesday and dress up with wool afterwards Very Happy
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Wow.
Was at 1800m in Lower Austria with plus 8 Deg C yesterday (temperature inversion). The forecast for the same area is saying it will be drop to around -20 Deg C within 5 days.
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@DB, My balcony thermometer hit 20C on Friday, and was showing 15C on Saturday evening at midnight Shocked Fohn was howling though. Snow down to about 900m this morning, which slightly surprised me as I was expecting it to be a lot higher.
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Looks like 10cm above 1500m in the NW yesterday and expecting another 20-30cm to 1200m by wed/thurs.

Predictable struggle unfolding for the models re. mid month scandi high and undercut. Default position here is the models will over-estimate how far north the high pressure will sit, ie it usually sinks back towards mainland europe closer to time.

ECM and GEM below show wildly different outcomes a week out....GFS somewhere in the middle.
ECM tries to push an atlantic low SE under the block....



GEM rolls it over the top...much milder


GFS keeps the cold nudging south


And here's a pretty picture taken over the weekend by tourist office on Snaefellsnes Peninsula just north of Reykjavik

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