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The All New 20/21 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
The model will work off the co-ordinates for say Innsbruck, and give a range of temperatures at varying elevations for that geo-location. I think the latest GFS has a grid size of 28km now, but not sure how that works on the ground, ie will it show the exact same output for everywhere in a 28km square grid. Either way, a nearby mountain is likely to have a slightly different set of data, given it's different coordinates etc.

Here's a GFS data link (and ensembles top right) for Innsbruck....under 'Neige Avance' you can see how the temperature changes for 5 different elevations, and what the freeze level is.
Eg, 560m asl is about 950hpa, so you'd expect to see similar temp readings under the 2m(surface) and z950 (air) columns

http://www.meteociel.fr/previsions-neige/40823/innsbruck.htm

...thinking about your question though, I suppose 850 hpa temp (and the 500 hpa temp at 5000m) will determine whether the airmass is likely to produce snow, and 2m temps will tell you more about how much will settle, and how long it may last, especially this time of year when there might not be a base. But there are other variables of course, such as wind chill, temperature inversions etc
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Looking good for the return of the snow next weekend in the West...


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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Not a lot of joy in the met office forecast. A hint of some cooler weather way out in December perhaps ?
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/
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Snowing in PNW of USA. Storm came through starting on Friday and Continued through Sunday. About 3 feet over 72 hours. Ski areas starting to restrict uphill travel. Managed to get 3 days worth of touring in. Some warmer air coming in for next 48 hours. Then cooling off again.





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^^^ looks good!

Some snow and a deep freeze coming at the weekend in this neck of the woods
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@Toadman, nice!!
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Looks like 10cm fell at 2000m with snowline briefly below 1800m last night in the NW.

Thurs/Fri still in play for another small top up, despite the high pressure ridge making another turn back to the east (too much energy south of greenland)....gfs 06z has a tiny second low sneaking in over the ridge and along the english channel this morning



Looks like the worst case ECM chart posted on the previous page was closest to the mark for Friday.

The better news is that high pressure is trying to build over Scandinavia. All the main models show some variation on this by day 10, here's ECM



And just for fun, even further out in GFS 06z la la land, the next wild goose chase leads to this.....a chart almost guaranteed not to verify, but isn't it pretty, with a cold easterly flow undercutting the high and meeting an atlantic trough


Strat winds are heading down towards average for the next 7-10days, so this might encourage some northern blocking, with a few AO/NAO ensemble members dipping negative.
Not much sign of this in the mean anomaly charts, so treat with more skepticism than usual for now.
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Interesting times indeed. Both GFS and EC changed in Sunday's prognosis to more continental high pressure. Today's prognosis back on track with more Scandi high and low pressures either from the west or southwest into the Alps. Anyway, cold temperatures for the continent might be in the horizon, particulary eastern part of the Alps. Weekend will see easterly winds-

Latest AO forecast sending more prognosis into negative territory. Exciting weather times, and even if it is early, something might be cooking.
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Models showing more precip coming in after Tuesday with cold air over Western BC, dropping back into PNW and moving across the Northern Rockies Wed/Thurs. time frame. British Columbia and the Coast Range are in the bullseye. Some moisture coming out of the South over Colorado mixing with cold air should produce snow later this week at higher elevations. Clearing for the weekend. Maybe another low pressure front coming off the North Pacific for US Thanksgiving but too far out in FI to give it much thought for now.

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Brief northerly tomorrow into Friday will be interesting....hardly any snow forecast, especially in the west, but often these cold spells produce more snow than models suggest....somewhere between Bern and Innsbruck likely to get the most, but just a top up.

UKMO negative temps at 1500m


Further out, it's still a mess, no clear signals appearing, strong westerly momentum overall, but am not giving up on november just yet

Looking at 27th Nov, from worst, the GFS parallel today, +NAO, europe blocked, a blend of other models really


ECM 12z hinting at a ridge towards scandi again....might lead to cold, NE flow into eastern alps


GEM 12z the best option right now, at least for the northern side....a decent trough on a NW-SE track


Lot's of chat elsewhere about how MJO (complex tropical wave forcing that is beyond my understanding) has scuppered the early la Nina default for now.....but the over-riding concern is probably vortex strength into Dec....leading to more +NAO.
At least the pacific is doing it's part, moving towards moderate and easterly la Nina this week.
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Interesting point, @polo,. Have been following the development of temperatures in 3,4 fervently lately. Looked like it was going colder and colder and then suddenly it warmed up quickly. That should be a good thing for us that are hoping for a moderate La Nina, although it is still early in the winter. The MJO is presently deep in phase 2 but will rapidly become more neutral in the next couple of days. Beyond my understanding if that has been behind the warming of the ENSA 3,4. But as a very general rule of thumb, MJO phase 3 and 4 can give typical westerly flows with lows into UK and Scandi and more high pressure dominated weather on the continent. Phase 7 and 8 is the reveresed. Not a big fan though.

The forecasts this week have been all over the place. Latest EC operational is back with a Scandi high towards the second half of next week. It is though centered a little too much to the south. Not much percipitation for a while for the Alps after early this weekend into next week. But picking up again towards the next weekend. But that is just one solution..... But the period with superwarm weather in Northern Europe might be coming to an end. The same with lows after lows into Norway.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
To be honest.. with the way this season is likely to pan out, it would be a good one to have bare slopes, ala late eighties, if I recall correctly, than bucket loads of snow and no ability to ski!
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Seconded
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Eeesh. Looking a bit dry if at least temps coming down
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@Alex A, @Maersk, not for me, thank you. I'd be happier feeling sorry for you as I rando up and down ....
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Early December looks good.....europe low pressure on the mean charts
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Was out walking in the low east Austrian mountains yesterday (Rax mountain, Peak = Heukuppe @2007m)
More snow than I expected, this shot taken at around 1650m



(Need to get rid of that blue dot)
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
This might be a good season for Scottish skiing for a number of reasons https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-season-2020-2021-final-weather-forecast-fa/
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polo wrote:
Early December looks good.....europe low pressure on the mean charts


Keep doing that snow dance please!
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Yep #localslidesmatter

Looking at 27th from above, once again the worst case chart was closest, so a dry final week of Nov



Some very cold nights and frosty mornings already under the high, and temps are consistently shown to be heading lower. Early dec mean temp pinned around zero at 1500m.



The ramp in strat winds into the new month is guararnteed now, but interestingly there is an ongoing disconnect between the strat PV and the tropospheric PV. It's normally only a matter of time until they couple up in Dec/Jan but at the moment they seem to be going in opposite directions....as you can see the AO index heading lower over the same time frame (next 2 weeks).



So below average temps are likely, and there is a potential gap on the mean anomaly charts for a northerly flow into europe (days 8-10)....not quite there yet as snowy signal for the alps, but not bad.



@munich_irish a good long read that....apart from the bit about a mild europe getting half a meter less snow than usual.....bin it.

Along with this crazy looking FI chart on 00z.....a category 3 hurriance over UK

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@polo, one thing that makes me less hopeful about the cooling trend though: don't the ensembles tend to revert towards the mean in the second half of the run anyway?
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@denfinella, yes there may be a built in trend towards climatological mean beyond the reliable timeframe ....such as default high pressure over the alps, something we get 80-90% of the year (top of my head).
But the ensemble temperature mean above is slightly below the climate (historical) average. It won't always equal the climate average, certainly at say days 7-12, you can often see the ensemble mean well above or below the long term average. Further out, you would expect more reversion, but then again look at all the winter seasonal forecasts, they nearly always show some variation from the long term average.

So all we can say is the models have been consistently forecasting this cooling trend into Dec....but that's what you would expect of course this time of year, so it's more encouraging than concerning Very Happy.......at least it's not going to be 15+

You could focus on the Op and control at that range ....might see more of a leading trend, or you might just get flip flopping around the mean.....eg 06z just gone mild and dry, no hurriance
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
I get what you're saying.

I'm still not convinced though - I'd like to see either a more significant dip below the mean or a bigger change in the precipitation pattern. (Well, obviously we'd all like to see that!)

Still, it's good to be optimistic!
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yep it would be unusual to see a big difference between the ens mean and historical mean beyond 8-10 days.
Also good to look at the ensemble spread....if it's very wide I wouldn't trust the mean run to be that reliable, but using the above graph as an example, the spread is relatively tight for 1st week of Dec.

The pressure charts add another layer of information of course, ie chances of N or NE flow would support the low temps, but not much precipitation showing up yet because of where the low pressure is centered. It will all change again soon anyway wink
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just had a look at the NH profile and GFS mean ensemble temp is forecast to be 12c above average for Canada around dec 4th......signifying

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Both GFS and ECM trending a bit cooler as we head into December.

That said nothing to get too excited about at the moment...


Last edited by snowHeads are a friendly bunch. on Tue 24-11-20 17:36; edited 1 time in total
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Big high-pressure signal continues to grow across Canada / NW atlantic in a weeks time...so that cold has to go somewhere. Wider area of low pressure too over europe at the same time, seems to be a tendeny for lows to form over Iberia (not ideal), or the med.

Here's GEM in the more reliable timeframe (next Wed) showing southern alps might get the first crack at fresh snowfall....foilowed by some nice Northerly charts lining up in FI.

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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Some FI fun...

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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Whistler, Canada, set for 1-2ft of fresh this week.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Not much snow in the horizon for the Alps in the latest prognosis, but the snow canons should have some decent conditions in the time ahead. Huge differencens between night and day temperatures.

Interesting pattern though that is starting to emerge. High pressure in the east influencing Scandinavia. Might see some heavy percipitation episodes over Iberia. Is there also a chance for a northern Stau in the end?
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Bergfex was showing snow for mid next week but no more. Sad
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Woosh wrote:
Not much snow in the horizon for the Alps in the latest prognosis, but the snow canons should have some decent conditions in the time ahead. Huge differencens between night and day temperatures.

Interesting pattern though that is starting to emerge. High pressure in the east influencing Scandinavia. Might see some heavy percipitation episodes over Iberia. Is there also a chance for a northern Stau in the end?


the question is : does it really worth to produce snow??? nobody know (except Switzerland) if the resorts will open or not and if yes when?
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@turms1, it’s normally done as part of piste preparation in the early part of the season. So to an extent as long as you hope to be opening even if late it’s arguably worth some effort now.

Meanwhile ECM and GFS suggest a colder spell in early December. Still a bit far out.



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CO2 hit a record high last winter.

Expect 2020-21 to be a hot one.

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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Snowing from the BC Canada Coast Range down into Central Cascades of Oregon. Should see anywhere from 30cm+ up in BC to about 20cm down in Central Oregon over the next 24 hours.

Ski resorts will be opening up on Thursday for Thanksgiving. We shall see how things go. Utah has seen a major spike in COVID cases and the hospitals there are at capacity. But Utah has been in a bit of a dry spell, so hopefully that will reduce interest in skiing at that way.

Most PNW ski areas are open or will be open by tomorrow with the exception of Bachelor, which is steadfast despite the 2 meters of snow that has fallen during November and will not open until Dec. 5th to passholders only for the first week.

Most ski areas require reservations. I skied at Crystal Mtn, WA on Monday and they were fairly strict on the loading of groups only, or singles two to a chair with masks required.

Conditions this early in November have really been stellar. Plan to go for a hike this afternoon and get some of that fresh white elixir of frozen liquid. Snowing out my window as I type... Very Happy

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@Toadman, looks great, enjoy!
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Speaks volumes about the current situation that the equivalent thread last year was already up to page 19 by this point!

Good news that we might get a colder spell in early Dec though. Think we all need a big dump of snow to cheer us all up!
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
UKMO looks primed, still over a week away, but it's heading the right way on the 12z


Looking at 4th dec, with the big Canadian high developing....
ICON... the hurriance is back, but dropping too far west, bad -NAO towards iberia


GEM 4th better, edging east, more negatively tilted trough (NW-SE)


GFS picks the best line.....still just outside the reliable timeframe, but progress for sure
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It seems Angela Merkel has a tight control over Europe’s precipitation as well as its politics Sad
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Storm track will be moving up North of the border for the next few days, so British Columbia will reap the rewards.

PNW received a nice layer on Wednesday, and woke up to blue skies this morning. Might be a 5-7 day period of high pressure over the West Coast and the Rockies.

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