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Is the 2020/2021 a non starter?

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
March/April is four to five months away; a lot can change in that time. I was able to travel overseas less than five months after the last lockdown started. You never know. Keep the faith.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
ed123 wrote:
boyanr wrote:
with a false psitive rate of the PCR test of 1-2% , those few cases of reinfection do not evn hold statistically... So for the time being we can safely assume you dont get reinfected, at least for half a year


well that isn't how reinfections are determined. THey are determined by sequencing the actual virus at two different points and finding different viruses. Not just a PCR (which isn't the whole viral genome). and it wouldn't be by PCR either.

Isn't it great how so many people know so much about molecular biology.
Well said. I think the key factor in the confirmed re-infections that I've read of (2 or 3 of them) has been the genetic sequencing determined two different strains of the virus. Impossible for the second infection to be a continuation of the first.

Given that the human immune system is immensely complex it doesn't seem to me to be impossible that we will see a handful of genuine cases of reinfection among the tens of millions of people who have been infected across the world. But I don't think that is necessary something we need to be concerned about for the population as a whole.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
most of those 23 reported cases were not sequenced and are onlyreported based on the pcr
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boyanr wrote:
most of those 23 reported cases were not sequenced and are onlyreported based on the pcr


Even if that's the case the fact that some cases were sequenced confirms that in those cases second reinfection with Covid-19 did occur, so negating your argument that false positive PCR tests can explain all the reported cases of secondary reinfection ("the few cases of reinfection do not even hold statistically").
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of course the brightside of reinfection is that a few people could get it again- yey!
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We’ve given up hope that we will get our Xmas week in so that’ll be an insurance claim.

If the french stick to this lockdown and take it seriously maybe by February half term will be OK to travel and they’ll have opened their ski resorts.

Nothing booked for then but we do have Easter booked which I’m not even confident will happen!

Who’d have thought this would have lasted so long...
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Stinkpickle wrote:
We’ve given up hope that we will get our Xmas week in so that’ll be an insurance claim.

If the french stick to this lockdown and take it seriously maybe by February half term will be OK to travel and they’ll have opened their ski resorts.

Nothing booked for then but we do have Easter booked which I’m not even confident will happen!

Who’d have thought this would have lasted so long...


That’s interesting, because I’m working on the other way.

I have no travel booked, but hoping a few weeks over Xmas / New Year will be possible because the current restrictions will have resulted in lower cases.

By March, cases will have risen, and the resorts will be closing Sad

Last season, we literally got the last plane out of Salzburg as they locked down.
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Ignoring the argument as to whether lockdown now is the right move or not I am of the opinion that it makes our trip at the very end of December more likely, as long of course that it reduces cases going into Dec, if things are relaxed for xmas then there may be a window of opportunity to get skiing started up again.
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@robs1, unless you are happy to quarantine on arrival or return or both them my feeling is ‘dream on’. Sorry to be negative but can’t think anything will be possible until April at the earliest. However I hope I’m wrong!
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robs1 wrote:
Ignoring the argument as to whether lockdown now is the right move or not I am of the opinion that it makes our trip at the very end of December more likely, as long of course that it reduces cases going into Dec, if things are relaxed for xmas then there may be a window of opportunity to get skiing started up again.


I will second the post above - unless you are happy to quarantine both ends I cant see it happening that early at all.
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We are meant to be going for 6 weeks, so if its reduced to 4 by having to quarantine on the way out so be it, should be less if we can get a test to show we are clear.
On the return bit Mrs is taking retirement 20th dec and will return part time on her return so that can be delayed by two weeks no problem, I can work and self isolate on my return without too much issue.
I realise that many cant do that but I dont have many more years of skiing left with my knees and last year was the first we had an extended stay so if we can find a way to go we will
ski holidays
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
I’m personally happy to quarantine on return. I did in September when we returned from getting the chalet set up for winter. It’s not that bad, 2 weeks goes quickly, you are still able to go to the supermarket if you’re unable to get shopping any other way, which in our case was true.

Last time I checked, you don’t have to quarantine on arrival (Austria for me), so I’d happily just take a week away for a fix, ideally we’ll be going for 3 weeks though.
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Stinkpickle wrote:


If the french stick to this lockdown and take it seriously maybe by February half term will be OK to travel and they’ll have opened their ski resorts.



I think the aim will be to reopen for February but I don't see it happening much before. Of course recruiting staff for February will be complex for resorts depending on how furlough payments are handled.

They are talking about letting people out for Christmas and New Year only now. Obviously officially the lockdown is to early December but no-one believes that will be the end of it, least of all the scientific advisors. If it happens before it will be a big bonus but the projections are for mid January to get cases under control in France. Just to say again this is not "official" but the word on the street for whatever that is worth.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Stinkpickle wrote:


Who’d have thought this would have lasted so long...


I know. Sad

It was unimaginable. I remember saying in March, when our ski trip was cancelled, that it might not be safe to travel in the summer but didn't, for one minute, imagine that our early season (November) trip to Val Thorens would also be cancelled - never mind the possibilty of the entire 20/21 season going down the pan! Shocked

But that is now the scenario we are planning for; and any Alpine skiing would be an absolute bonus.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Stinkpickle wrote:


Who’d have thought this would have lasted so long...


erm @stanton ? still his currency picks have been less than accurate.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Well, I'm sure it's been remarked before but even a stopped clock is right twice a day...
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
So that’s that for the next few weeks at least. Anyone’s guess how realistic the 4 week period is. Can’t imagine we’ll have turned the corner by then, but can only hope!

Overnight stays and holidays away from primary residences will not be allowed. This includes holidays abroad and in the UK. It also means you cannot stay in a second home, if you own one, or staying with anyone you do not live with or are in a support bubble with. There are specific exceptions, for example if you need to stay away from home (including in a second home) for work purposes, but this means people cannot travel overseas or within the UK, unless for work, education or other legally permitted reasons..”

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/new-national-restrictions-from-5-november#travel
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
The fact that lots of Europe are doing it all at the same time I can see being helpful.

From UK perspective the heat maps via BBC between yesterday and today appear to show to me that numbers are dropping before we even enter it...

Yesterday:



Today:



Wales has been on a firebreak so could be a result of that. However several of the south west and south east zones have changed colour for the better BUT that is before the spike that people’s last chance to meet up for potentially and exceedingly long time, occurs!
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@NickyJ, The cynic would say that the numbers will drop anyway no matter what the government did as most kids in University will have had COVID soon. Got a kid gone to Univ, we had COVID so he is ok but everyone around him has had it and the number of positives have dropped off enormously.

This lockdown is called based on data that was 2-3 weeks out of date. Utter madness.
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thefatcontroller wrote:
@NickyJ, The cynic would say that the numbers will drop anyway no matter what the government did as most kids in University will have had COVID soon. Got a kid gone to Univ, we had COVID so he is ok but everyone around him has had it and the number of positives have dropped off enormously.

This lockdown is called based on data that was 2-3 weeks out of date. Utter madness.


Of course it could well help accelerate that downward trend and if it has properly started then by 4 weeks the numbers should allow lifting when they say. I fear they won’t but praying they do
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paulo wrote:
So that’s that for the next few weeks at least. Anyone’s guess how realistic the 4 week period is. Can’t imagine we’ll have turned the corner by then, but can only hope!


Depending slightly on when you define lockdown properly started in March (16th was the work-from-home announcement day, but many companies in London had started a week before, tho' I think the strictest rules didn't come in till the 26th), it was about 4 weeks (c.10th April) till hospital admissions started to fall, tho' that was really only properly clear a few days later. By mid-April, hospital beds started to free up again.

Around Easter weekend IIRC the staffing expectations for Nightingale London were reduced, so arguably that's the point at which it was obvious in the healthcare system.

So, even with a harder lockdown last time, it took about 4 weeks to see an effect.

I think Gove last night was warming the electorate up for the inevitable - some variant of extended lockdown until just pre-Xmas, with the prize being a bit of household/family mixing allowed at Xmas time.
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thefatcontroller wrote:
This lockdown is called based on data that was 2-3 weeks out of date. Utter madness.

Because there is no more recent data. There never will be. It's always out of date. Your personal experience is irrelevant: we have entire teams of people feeding data from all over the country across the whole of the NHS and beyond into the covid database of information. And at the moment, it's bad by every measure, and getting worse. The worst case in terms of unnecessary action is that there is some miraculous reversal where infection stops suddenly - and this isn't ever going to happen, based on a hundred years of epidemiology experience. The worst case in ignoring the numbers and waiting is thousands of unnecessary deaths, a broken NHS, and as bad or worse economic impact.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
LaForet wrote:
thefatcontroller wrote:
This lockdown is called based on data that was 2-3 weeks out of date. Utter madness.

Because there is no more recent data. There never will be. It's always out of date. Your personal experience is irrelevant: we have entire teams of people feeding data from all over the country across the whole of the NHS and beyond into the covid database of information. And at the moment, it's bad by every measure, and getting worse. The worst case in terms of unnecessary action is that there is some miraculous reversal where infection stops suddenly - and this isn't ever going to happen, based on a hundred years of epidemiology experience. The worst case in ignoring the numbers and waiting is thousands of unnecessary deaths, a broken NHS, and as bad or worse economic impact.


Seen so many predictions from the experts and bizarrely nothing has borne true. The economic tsunami on its way is going to be far worse than any alleged COVID 2nd wave...
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@LaForet, do you have inside knowledge that there are actually people collecting and analysing relevant data? The evidence of that being done doesn't seem to be shared with anyone.

For example, from the briefing on Saturday night, where is the evidence that buying reading matter in a bookshop (banned from Thursday) is significantly more risky than buying a pint of milk in the corner shop, given that each will have "Covid-safe" restrictions such as limits to numbers, sanitiser, and mandatory mask wearing? Or evidence that the existing higher Tier restrictions (only applied where we live two days ago) are not making sufficient difference: from what data we can access (case number graphs by local authority on the BBC website) places like Newcastle and Liverpool have turned the corner but it would need someone to assemble such data from all previous high transmission areas. The data provided in the briefing on R values does suggest something has been effective in changing the previous trend.

@thefatcontroller, interesting, we have similar anecdotal sources. Our daughter started university this term, and caught Covid within her first week - as did others. She says that there are now hardly any students in isolation compared with a few weeks ago. I must say it made me think, I have been sceptical about the effectiveness of "natural" herd immunity but I now wonder if something like that is happening among university students in halls of residence.
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@j b, I have a tranche of friends with kids going to Univ this year. Early in the year I knew no one who tested positive but everyone i know with kids going to Univ, the kids either had COVID or were surrounded by friends with positives & in isolation. Look at the big outbreak areas, nearly all University's and that can't last. I said at beginning of October, let the Univ kids party as they will all have had COVID by end of November latest.
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Quote:

It was unimaginable. I remember saying in March, when our ski trip was cancelled, that it might not be safe to travel in the summer but didn't, for one minute, imagine that our early season (November) trip to Val Thorens would also be cancelled - never mind the possibilty of the entire 20/21 season going down the pan!


My only challenge is - I know a lot of this is operation SaveNoel or whatever you want to call it depending on the country. But given that there is an aim to open up for xmas ski and so on, I honestly doubt anywhere (AT, FR, CH) will be in a state to receive a lot of travelers and not have outbreaks. So wouldn't it be easier to stretch it out, make some money now, then have a sudden close after just be two weeks open? I mean, mid-end December ski often coincides also with lots of children holidays, larger family travels and so on.

Maybe my understanding of the economics of the situation is a bit askew, but I can't imagine that will be better...
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
blind_raven wrote:
Quote:

It was unimaginable. I remember saying in March, when our ski trip was cancelled, that it might not be safe to travel in the summer but didn't, for one minute, imagine that our early season (November) trip to Val Thorens would also be cancelled - never mind the possibilty of the entire 20/21 season going down the pan!


My only challenge is - I know a lot of this is operation SaveNoel or whatever you want to call it depending on the country. But given that there is an aim to open up for xmas ski and so on, I honestly doubt anywhere (AT, FR, CH) will be in a state to receive a lot of travelers and not have outbreaks. So wouldn't it be easier to stretch it out, make some money now, then have a sudden close after just be two weeks open? I mean, mid-end December ski often coincides also with lots of children holidays, larger family travels and so on.

Maybe my understanding of the economics of the situation is a bit askew, but I can't imagine that will be better...


They need to get the numbers down enough so that other countries allow their citizens to travel first - there's little point being open for business when your biggest markets have imposed travel restrictions to your destination. But I doubt anyone expects that there won't be outbreaks again once things open, and I suspect many are already expecting further lock downs again in January before the following next important holiday period in Feb.

Re. the economics, I imagine many European destinations make more money ~20 dec - 1st jan than in the whole of November anyway, so if you're going to sacrifice a month it may as well be the lowest of all low seasons...
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
j b wrote:
@LaForet, do you have inside knowledge that there are actually people collecting and analysing relevant data? The evidence of that being done doesn't seem to be shared with anyone.

So the ONS web pages full of spreadsheets are what, a conspiracy? It's all there and on the NHS and gov.uk pages, although I admit you need a fair bit of spare time to wade through it all. And as I said, your main comment was that the actions were unjustified on the basis of being out-of-date and that your personal experience with one fresher meant the figures were incorrect. Thus my comment that the data is all out-of-date and that one family's experience, however genuine, was no indicator of, well, anything.

It's only now that you're positing that some of the detailed measures seem hard to relate to positive outcomes in terms of restricting infections. Which is fair. Why was closing a pub at 10pm better than closing at 11pm? Why does a swimming pool servicing no more than 20 people and a gym/classes serving a hundred both get shut down? Why is operating a building site with 50 people working closely together all day OK, but 50 people selling stuff from their separate market stalls not? Which is a different issue to the one you originally stated.


Last edited by So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much on Mon 2-11-20 11:26; edited 3 times in total
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Quote:

hey need to get the numbers down enough so that other countries allow their citizens to travel first - there's little point being open for business when your biggest markets have imposed travel restrictions to your destination


Fair enough, although I think the fear in most countries is the fact that they might bring it back home. I think the experiment with rapid testing that they're doing in Austria with rapid-testing might actually have better results if they manage to roll it out in ski areas.

Because what happened last year was not necessarily the local hotspots (which as you said, will be inevitable) but that people go back, disregard quarantine rules, and spread it around even further. Either because they're idiots or asymptomatic.
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@LaForet, I wasn't doubting there is regional data. I was asking whether anyone was correlating whether say application of Tier 2 or Tier 3 to a region gave a sufficiently useful response 2-3 weeks later (not easily extracted data for the amateur given the different dates of change). And thus the impact of the different added restrictions.

And whether there was data to inform what were the appropriate lockdown restrictions. Back in March it was a completely new viral infection and all governments had to go on was experience of the early countries to suffer that that massive lockdown worked. Seven months later one would have hoped that all the data collected in the interim would allow a more intelligent approach, not locking down things that would make little difference anyway. That would allow much the same impact on infection spread, while mitigating in part the health effects of damaging the economy and allowing people activities good for the wellbeing.

For example I am sceptical (but happy to be convinced by hard data) that shopping as a customer observing current restrictions is high risk. Or outdoor sports.
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To lighten the discussion a bit: It will certainly be a catastrophe of cosmic proportions if I cannot now re-use the outfit I had hand tailored by Mrs. Laforêt especially for last year's St.Nicholas day (6 Dec.) in Verbier (allowing me to ski the day for just CHF 5). I wonder if I can claim for non-use on my Travel Insurance?

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thefatcontroller wrote:
Seen so many predictions from the experts and bizarrely nothing has borne true. The economic tsunami on its way is going to be far worse than any alleged COVID 2nd wave...


Depending on how you're defining a "2nd wave", describing the current situation as "alleged" is either deeply disingenuous or really not understanding the information available...even if you think the peak has been passed. Either way it's unhelpful.

As for the "predictions", in most cases that I've seen the experts are clear to refer to them as projections because they are specifically not predictions. They're almost all modelled projections based on latest (but still historic) data and assuming no changes to behaviour. Even leaving aside the fact that modelling something as uncertain as the spread of Covid is immensely difficult (and therefore projections are unlikely to "come true" in any meaningful way), just think about how often Bojo and co have changed 'the rules' recently and it's pretty unfair to expect projections to become reality.
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@LaForet, I think that outfit would benefit from a couple of long red ribbons, maybe 5m each. You could attach one to each foot, and they'd provide an attractive display as you skied down the mountain.

Furthermore, if you were buried in an avalanche, people could give them a mild tug, and you'd magically pop out of the snow, with a "ta da!".

If you want some, then for a mere $35...
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j b wrote:
@LaForet where is the evidence that buying reading matter in a bookshop (banned from Thursday) is significantly more risky than buying a pint of milk in the corner shop....


Very similar risk I would have thought. But surely it doesn’t need to be pointed out that buying a pint of milk is rather more ‘essential’ than browsing some books in Waterstones! The aim being to reduce cumulative ‘contacts’.
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Quote:

@LaForet where is the evidence that buying reading matter in a bookshop (banned from Thursday) is significantly more risky than buying a pint of milk in the corner shop....


The main issues are:
- The more stores are open, the more people go to stores because there's nothing to do and can spread the virus more.
- Books can be bought online and while you can argue that milk can be bought online too through supermarket services, it's not really sustainable to have an entire country do so.
- Books are non-essential/shopped for fun compared to milk (Not debating the importance of books in general). And it's not like anyone is putting a cap on book buying, it's just not to go fun-shopping.

It's about limiting potential areas of infection. I'm also personally more likely to hang out way too long in a Waterstones while a supermarket is in/out (but this is entirely me, so I'm not generalizing)
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Two days ago I moved my flight from LGW to INN on easyjet for 5 Jan to a date out in May (and then hope to push it forward again in when the 21/22 flights come out due to the buy any bag for £1 deal earlier this year - plenty of bag and lots of skis Very Happy ).

Just had a look at it appears that Easyjet have almost wiped their flights clean on that route for all of Jan (only generally Saturdays left)... They are not very optimistic!
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rob@rar wrote:
Pruman wrote:
I think schools and operators will have to make decisions very soon and the likely decision has to be "computer says no". France / Austria still on the quarantine list and Italy could so easily join them - no school will want to risk 2 weeks quarantine for staff and pupils straight after half term, and nor will most of the parents. So, at what point does a school head make the call? They aren't usually risk takers.
Interski, who are a large operator of school ski trips to the Aosta valley in Italy, recently confirmed that they would not be running any trips until Feb half term at the earliest. That was inevitable, and to be honest I can’t see any school wanting to organise a ski trip this academic year and I’d guess most will look to back out of any trips already booked.

They have pulled the entire season now... https://www.interski.co.uk/winter2020.php
Not good, if perhaps inevitable.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
I'm not surprised about the Interski decision at all. My daughter's school is not running any trips this academic year not even a couple of hours of geography field work in the same county. Usually there would be multiple trips abroad and a ski trip etc. Schools have enough on their plate just keeping open, minimising covid outbreaks etc.

I think it is unlikely there will be British school ski trips to the alps this season but I don't think this gives much of an indication as to whether ski holidays will be possible for individual households. Much will depend on individual country decisions on opening ski areas and what travel restrictions are in place at the time of travel.
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Many Company's who run & operate their own Hotels are not opening for Xmas/NY Holidays and beyond.

Here is an example

Intersoc a Belgium company that normally takes 1000's of Kids from BE &NL to Switzerland will not operate until at least February.


https://www.facebook.com/Intersoc.vzw

Expect to see a Lot more of this in the coming weeks....

STAY AT HOME
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