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The All New 20/21 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Still looking good for a decent fall of snow Monday into Tuesday.



If you can find an excuse to be at the top of Hintertux on Wednesday you may be smiling ,assuming you dodged the lift queues... Wink
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Onset of winter, considerable avalanche danger in the mountains

https://www.slf.ch/en/avalanche-bulletin-and-snow-situation.html#avalanchedanger

“Weather outlook through Tuesday, 27 October

On Monday, skies will be heavily overcast, accompanied by intensive precipitation in some areas which is expected to persist into the nighttime hours. At heightened altitudes, a moderate to strong-velocity southerly wind will be blowing, reaching storm strength in the eastern regions during the early morning hours. Subsequently during the course of the day, the wind in northern regions will shift to westerly and slacken off significantly. The snowfall level in northern regions will descend swiftly from 2000 down to 1200 m, in the southern regions and the Engadine the snowfall level will persist at 2100 m and descend down to approximately 1400 m only as evening approaches. By Tuesday morning, the following amounts of fresh snow are anticipated:

Main Alpine Ridge from Nufen Pass into the Upper Engadine including regions bordering to the north of central Grisons, Ticino, Moesano, Val Bregaglia and Val Poschiavo: 50 to 100 cm;

remaining regions of the northern Alpine Ridge east of the Jungfrau, remaining parts of Grisons, Upper Valais sector of the Main Alpine Ridge along the Italian border: 30 to 50 cm;

in the other regions of Switzerland: 15 to 30 cm over widespread areas.

On Tuesday in the northern regions, the snowfall will slowly round to a close, subsequently it will become temporarily sunny in the western regions more than anywhere else. In the southern regions it will become quite sunny as a result of moderate-velocity northerly winds.”


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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Lech at 1030 Rud Alpe (quite the wine cellar if you should find yourself stuck there with not much to do)



Lech at 1330 Rud Alpe

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@nozawaonsen, one of those places I've skied past loads of times and thought I must pop in but have never done so!!
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
@kitenski, it can get ridiculously crowded and then less fun. But the wine cellar is an impressive piece of work. Ideally you want to aim to get trapped in their during a storm. With a corkscrew.
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And a good credit card

Meanwhile I see Morris is no longer with wepowder, anyone know why?
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
8611 wrote:


Meanwhile I see Morris is no longer with wepowder, anyone know why?


Oh wow, hadn't spotted that! Looks/sounds like he sold his stake.

He also posted this on the Dutch version of their forum (translated with Deepl):

Quote:
I have been on the books for the last few days and apparently I have missed a few things. I could not suppress a small smile when I read this topic. What a special group of people you are. Like no other, they are able to quickly gather information and data and get to work with it. Also now you were faster than Arjen and I in bringing news. But fortunately you are also able to talk to each other like no other instead of polarising.

The news was already on the street, but to be as clear as possible an answer to your question: Yes, I stopped. It has been 15 years since I was in the waves of Hook of Holland with Tobias van Surfweer. He suggested that I no longer send my snow report to friends by e-mail but put it online. Not much later my first weather report was public under the name versesneeuw.nl Soon after that I met Arjen and Bart and in 2008 we integrated skizone.nl and versesneeuw.nl and launched wePowder.

I've had 15 great years. I've learned a lot, had great adventures, seen parts of the snow world that I will always remember and got to know a lot of new people. But there were also deep valleys. It started with the loss of Steven and then more followed. Friends of yours and mine left their lives in the Alps and still I am afraid if an unknown number calls me during the winter months. But the warmth, unanimity and support that is there on wePowder than for each other at times like this I have always experienced as special.

In 15 years, through fresh snow and wePowder, I have launched more than 3,000 weather reports and more than 330 powder ore. From October to April I was all about the current snow conditions and giving you the best trip. I have received tens of thousands of questions from you through all sorts of channels. Questions such as where to go but also questions based on my analyses. That resulted in beautiful moments from which I learned a lot and which gave me energy.

But when you're on 24/7, things like that become more and more dominant and everything becomes more decisive. Privacy is a precious commodity, I found out. There were moments in the winter when my phone vibrated continuously. During my children's competitions, when I was on a birthday in the evening, when I was on a trip myself or when I just came out of the water after a surfing session and turned it on again. After 15 years in this setting, my energy slowly burned up and circumstances forced me to distance myself. For you this might come raw on your roof now, I have been able to work towards this for the past few years.

But don't worry, Arjen is a fantastic guy and behind him is a team of (technical) wizards who make the most beautiful things online. That's all right. Besides that, wePowder has always been us. We could have come up with the slogan Corona together. The way everyone helps each other here is the basis of our success. wePowder is something we are all a bit like ourselves.

And don't forget, the time of scarce information is far behind us. Once upon a time, we had to make do with fax cards, teletext and avalanche messages hanging at the cash register of a ski resort (if you'd succeeded). In the 30 years that I have been hunting for powder, the information landscape has changed completely. Nowadays it is more the case that you have too much information than too little.

If you miss my message to indicate all that information, then there are more than 3000 weather reports from which you can draw, just like the old and new wePowder Guidebook. And don't be afraid, you can make mistakes. A day that hasn't fallen a day is a day that hasn't been learned. The knowledge of snow and weather in general and microclimates in particular I have mastered by trial and error. There are no failed trips, but you miss an opportunity if you don't learn from it.

When Corona made its entrance I was approached by Tobias from Surfweer and Valentine of Good Waves. They were working on an online course in forecasting surfing and they could use my knowledge of the weather. The course is now live (http://cursus.goedegolven.nl/cursus-info/) and I picked up some waves with Tobias again. After 15 years I have come full circle.

I'm back in virtual school these days and I'm busy with textbooks and online lessons. Besides all the unforgettable adventures, 30 years of snow has taught me that we have to be careful of our mountains and our climate. I am now trying to learn more about that.

It only remains for me to thank you for all the wonderful years!
Stay stoked & May the powder be with you
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Ah good to know they're not leaving on bad terms, at all. Sounds like he's making the right decision for a lot of good reasons.
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50cm fresh @ Hintertux & Sölden
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Time to roll out the Schnee-Chaos headline!

https://www.wetter.at/wetter/oesterreich-wetter/wintereinbruch-schnee-chaos-in-teilen-von-oesterreich/451608614
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@nozawaonsen, Haha! The benefits of not being able to go anywhere all summer – the winter tyres are still on the car Cool

Yesterday's surprise snow down to village level (600m) has now retreated to about 1100m. I rather wish I wasn't sitting at home under a pile of deadlines Confused
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@Scarlet, I’ve never got round to it on several occasions and then been cheering as I get up the autumn snow covered hill with everyone else sliding all over the place!
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
I have been to a couple of seminars regarding the outlook for the winter weather this season. Some of the issues have been covered here by some excellent posts. I would like to say that my own belief in seasonal forecasts is low, but I think that there are particular teleconnections events that increases the likelihood for certain weather regimes during the upcoming season.

So what can we say about the weather this winter?

1: All models point towards a relativly dry and warm winter for the continent, while Northern Europe will be wet and warm. My own confidence in these models are low.

2: It will be a La Nina winter, the big question is how strong it will be and how long it will last. I spoke yesterday with a meteorologist who is working with long term forecasts and he was 80 certain that it would not become a strong La Nina year. We have seen the research @polo provided for the weak, medium and strong La Nina years and the effects it had. Other presentations I have seen supports his research. Thus, the limited statistics we have supports that the probability for a AO - dominated winter is higher than non La Nina or strong La Nina years. This could imply colder weather coming down the continent and potentially a very good season in the southern Alps. It will be very interesting to follow the forecast for the strenght of La Nina in the coming weeks.

3: It has been the most active hurricane season since 2005 and the season it not finished. Last year was an inactive year. The limited statistics suggests that very active hurricane seasons can give AO - dominated weather in the winter months and the opposite is true when you have inactive seasons. Can be or can not be an important teleconnection.

4: The chance for a SSW given a La Nina winter is a little better than non La Nina winters. However, given that we have a westerly QBO, the research suggests that the chance drops to 50/50 and that it will be shorter. It probability would have been much higher with an easterly QBO and it would have lasted much longer.

5: Other teleconnections do not have very strong signals yet.

To sum it up, the models suggests a dry and warm season for the Alps. However, La Nina and the strong hurricane season might suggest otherwise with AO - dominated winter with potential cold outbreaks and a good season for the southern Alps. I have limited faith in the seasonal forecasts. But it will be very interesting to see the development of the strenght of La Nina and the effects it could have on the AO, if any. As we know, the La Nina effect on Europe is more unknown than the effects in N.A where we will probably see a cold winter in Canada and lots of snow in the Rockies. Another point to make is that the teleconnections are different this year compared to last year at the same time and it would be sensational to see a similar strong AO/NAO January/February as last year with lows after lows after lows hitting UK/scandi and dry/warm on the continent.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@Woosh, thanks I'd agree with a lot of that.....

The other big -AO driver is 2019 solar min of course. The years around the min are well correlated with -AO, especially the 1st and 2nd years of a new cycle. Last season was strongly +AO so if the solar min analog is any good, the odds must be high for this season to be -ve.

When discussing long term teleconnections I think analog matching is the best tool we have - how else can we interpret signals about the future without re-analyzing the past....
A big argument against them though is that the climate is changing dramatically, so feedback loops don't behave like they would have, eg the ongoing record arctic sea ice melt. But no one uses analogs for precise matching, just clues that might tip the odds one way or another.

I think the hurriance activity theory is that large amounts of tropical heat gets transferred to northern lattitudes, which warms the seas and creates a more gradual temperature gradient with mid lattitudes, thus slowing the jet and promoting -AO.

Right now and into mid Nov the strat vortex is pretty strong, linking up with the troposphere for a burst of +AO/NAO. But a lot of recent years have seen the vortex weaken in the second half of November, coinciding with a more meridonal (wavy) jet stream and better odds of early season cold plunges into europe.




Up until recently the CFS was forecasting a weaker strat into Dec, but that has changed now to an above average forecast....can keep an eye on it with this link:
http://www.weatheriscool.com/prod/interactiveTserie.html

So some lovely calm sunny weather over much of europe now, with temps around average (edit mostly above). Might even see a little snow in places next week as another weak looking trough breaks in for maybe only a few hours on tuesday, then back to high pressure with the main low once again setting up west of Iberia in the 8-10day range (ie the wrong type of -NAO for alps).

Here's a look at how autumn has fared so far....1sep to 27 oct, mostly a southerly tracking jet, but on a NW-SE axis, hence the good spell for the northern and western alps too.



....and there's this, NH snowfall is 3 weeks ahead of average so far
https://electroverse.net/snow-mass-already-300-gigatons-above-1982-2012-average/
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Far end of GFS so unlikely to happen, but an interesting example of an evolution towards Greenland blocking.



ECM not completely opposed mind you...



Chamonix

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=45.9&lon=6.9



Arlberg

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=47.2&lon=10-2



Bit of a cold shot midweek.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
12z GFS still throwing out some interesting blocking options at the end of the run.

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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Snow update from Ischgl


http://youtube.com/v/cLGDqpPopa8
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Hope they get to use all that good work. I’m afraid like many other I suspect who are not based in ski areas, waiting till Jan and seeing how the land lies. Living in Liverpool I’m off to get tested today with my wife. As long as the queue is not very long.
Regards to all on the forum.
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The current warm 14 day forecast for Western Europe would normally have the some watchers on this thread perplexed with worry if Val T or Tignes will open on time , quite sad this yearly ritual won’t be happening .
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Yep it’s more of a hiking outlook at present, but them’s the breaks!

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Sod's law will dictate covid lockdown and the best winter for years........................
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Maersk wrote:
best winter for years........................


Was surely in the running for best Autumn for a long time until November showed up. This is the locked in pattern for the immediate future.......north pacific high, snow across north americas, then atlantic trough and a wall of high pressure from Morocco to Moscow. Various teleconnections have been blamed.



But it's times like these where you have to rise above the pessimism because it literally can't get any worse (model outlook wise at least). I see chinks in the block for the second half of November.....just need to be patient and soak up this mild sunny dross for another week or so, then the last part of November will start to reveal itself and we should see a reversion to the mid atlantic ridge and then, snow.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
I’m all for a bit of sunshine but it looks dry as a bone until the end of November... Any chance of some snow?
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@BobinCH, I haven't finished my skirting boards, so mild and sunny suits me just fine. And anyway, we're locked in.
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Now tentatively booked Zermatt for late March. Surely we will all have a vaccine by then Puzzled Hope so then I can then follow the weather with my usual enthusiasm.
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under a new name wrote:
@BobinCH, I haven't finished my skirting boards, so mild and sunny suits me just fine. And anyway, we're locked in.


Excellent. I've been gardening today. Pity we can't cycle as most of the cold are snow free
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
twoodwar wrote:
Now tentatively booked Zermatt for late March. Surely we will all have a vaccine by then Puzzled Hope so then I can then follow the weather with my usual enthusiasm.


I think it is really optimistic to hope that a vaccine is going to be rolled out and the world populations will be inoculated by that point. There are huge logistics once approved, countries have a signed an agreement to spread the vaccine out so you won't have rich countries, Europe etc getting to 100% vaccinated and then have a country elsewhere at 5% due to limited supplies, at any given point all nations have agreed to limit the delta in vaccine supply to 20% of their population. The vaccine will be given first to medical and health care workers, then people at risk, then people aged over 65, then finally to what I can only imagine the largest part of this forum is and demographic of skiers, fit, healthy people of working age.

Michael O'Leary sensational statement today that Ryanair will be flying again at 80% of 2019 demand by next summer as Europe will be inoculated is sensational.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
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extremerob wrote:
then finally to what I can only imagine the largest part of this forum is and demographic of skiers, fit, healthy people of working age.


I think most people on snowheads are geriatrics.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@davidof, Oi!
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@extremerob, is the biggest challenge to a more homogeneous roll out of vaccine not the cold chain?
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Has anyone considered doing an anti coronavirus/snow dance. Always seem to work for me.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Had to scroll up to check if I was on the right thread...and yep there it is at the top, Weather Outlook.

The blocking high is slowly sliding west into the atlantic so that evolution should favour the eastern end of the alps for the first signs of a return to cold and snow.

Todays pressure anomalies


...may transition to something like this in 10 days time on ECM


GEM is an outlier at the moment regressing the high even further west at day10, probably wishful thinking....it has more of an azores centered high, while others keep some low pressure in the atlantic and high pressure over UK/France.


And about a week later, far end of GFS FI shows a similar picture to GEM.....way too far away but at least it too is moving in the right direction.


GFS ensembles (NW) also hinting at a small trough on Mon 16th (would be snow below 2000m), and a lot more precipitation spikes showing up for the final third of the month
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under a new name wrote:
@extremerob, is the biggest challenge to a more homogeneous roll out of vaccine not the cold chain?


Not sure I get what you mean - but I inadvertently feel like this thread may be plundered into yet another COVID discussion - which I think we should all avoid - we can take it to the off-piste?

@Jakey, looks like you are getting us back on track with a snow dance - we need some more snow!
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@davidof, guilty, 63 anyhow. Can’t tell you my wife’s age obviously!
I also have asthma, so slightly up the queue. I would be happy to go if everyone simply followed basic advice. In Liverpool this is not happening. Walking down the street is a bit dodgy. I also can’t play golf, tens of yards from the next person,in the open, madness.
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Apologies re deviation. Zermatt is expecting snow next week, according to wetterzentral. Not a lot, but every little helps
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@twoodwar, plenty of spikes on the Zermatt ensembles from the 20th on, being so high and central it seems to catch snow from all directions, but think the flow is mostly going to be W to NW next week



Quick look at the 00z shows Fri 20th, from worst (the ECM), then GFS P, GFS and the best GEM....that's 4 runs in a row now for this NW'ly flow on GEM






Looking at zonal winds up in the strat (which often drive the AO), there's a dip back towards neutral around mid November, so this should help with reducing the strong +AO and NAO, alllowing for some colder weather into europe. Longer term all strat forecasts currently show winds ramping up again to very strong levels into month end. So, might just get a one week window before returning to more zonal / westerly / +NAO set up.

Record / heavy snowfalls reported in Montana, Alberta, California, Colorado, Hokkiado
https://electroverse.net/category/extreme-weather/


....and for a reminder of how quickly things can change beyond a week or so, this is the GFS 00z for Fri 20th from just 4 days ago....very dry, SE flow

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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Hey, does anyone have an opinion on the usefulness of 2m temp vs precipitation vs 850 hPa temp vs precipitation?

I'm assuming in a mountainous place like Innsbruck 850 hPa (ie temp at 1500m?) is probably the most useful; I assume 2m temp (temp at 2 metres above ground?) cannot be taking into account the topographical differences (so could be for a very random point/altitude across the area covered by the ensemble?)?

[url=https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/ens_image.php?geoid=3163&var=202&run=0&date=2020-11-12&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1[/url]

Also have to say I like the new version of Wetterzentrale - much easier to navigate!


Last edited by Then you can post your own questions or snow reports... on Thu 12-11-20 10:43; edited 2 times in total
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@clarky999, unfortunately, unless it’s a link to a .jpg file, it won’t work on this forum - better to just post the link.
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@clarky999, you mean graphs that display both side by side? GFS ensembles also display freeze level vs precipitation which is handy.

My armchair / amateur view is that 850 hPa is more useful when forecasting snow, regardless of elevation. The surface (2m) temps flutuate a lot more, peaking as the sun does, whereas the 850 hPa is a more stable indicator of how cold the airmass is, as opposed to the ground. More knowledgeable posters would probably consider thickness (DAM) and dew points as important factors too.

I think both will perform as badly / well as the resolution of the model you are using....ie they are both going to be very broadscale (50km flat range) on GFS, ECM, or down to a few km range on the high res short term models such as Arome, Arpegge, WRF etc

Anyway all that really matters is they both go negative and stay there.
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@telford_mike, @polo, thanks!

Quote:

I think both will perform as badly / well as the resolution of the model you are using....ie they are both going to be very broadscale (50km flat range) on GFS, ECM, or down to a few km range on the high res short term models such as Arome, Arpegge, WRF etc


I was looking at GFS for Innsbruck, where the city sits at 560m but mountains rise to 2200m+ within a few km either side. I guess a better formulated question would be: is there any way to work out at which altitude they are forecasting the 2m above ground temperature for?

What you say about 850 hPa makes a lot of sense though!
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