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The All New 20/21 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Still no sign of high pressure firmy establishing itself over Europe.



Indeed rather the opposite.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Risk of stormy weather continues in Alps and Pyrenees. https://www.estofex.org/

“A level 1 was issued across Pyrenees mainly for excessive rainfall.

A level 1 was issued from Massif Central towards the Alpine range and northern Italy mainly for excessive rainfall, large hail and to the lesser extent for severe wind gusts.”

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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
As a skier and non meteorologist, I simply want the best opinion about if it’s likely to have snowed, will snow, there will be snow, where and when I am going to go. I think that’s what most skiers want, in simple language. I concede that a lot of detail if fine, And would not deny any detailed scientific discussion,but a brief summary would be good.

Regards to all from someone who does not yet feel able to book a skiing holiday
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Might see a little fresh on top of Hintertux tomorrow.
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Looks like some proper warm weather likely around the turn of the month.

GFS



ECM



Less clear whether it will stick around mind you.
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Meanwhile...

“A level 1 and level 2 are issued for E and S Germany, the W Czech Republic and N Austria for severe convective wind gusts, large hail and tornadoes.

A level 1 is issued for S Austria and NE Italy mainly for excessive convective precipitation, large hail and to a lesser degree for severe convective wind gusts.”



https://www.estofex.org/
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
twoodwar wrote:
As a skier and non meteorologist, I simply want the best opinion about if it’s likely to have snowed, will snow, there will be snow, where and when I am going to go. I think that’s what most skiers want, in simple language. I concede that a lot of detail if fine, And would not deny any detailed scientific discussion,but a brief summary would be good.

Regards to all from someone who does not yet feel able to book a skiing holiday


The simple truth: Any snow “forecast”, beyond 2 or 3 days ahead, is totally useless — you might as well roll a dice. And even that is pushing it; we’ve all been in a ski resort and told clearly by the locals that tomorrow there will be a storm, only to have a beautiful sunny day skiing.

Here is a more in-depth article:

https://www.inthesnow.com/people-perhaps-particularly-british-people-tend-get-excited-snow-reports/

But I would love to see some feedback and stats from the far more experienced people @ Snowheads. Are there any stats on how accurate predictions have been for the coming seasons snow forecast?
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@Poogle, I’m not really sure what you are asking? If you are asking whether there are any statistics on the ability of long term forecasts (ie seasonal forecasts) to predict snowfall weeks or months in advance then the answer would surely be no as no forecasts (of any credence) seek to make such long term predictions. They tend to be focussed on the broad climate, will probably be probabilistic and heavily caveated. The underlying scientific foundation doesn’t really exist for much more than that. I think you can push out a bit beyond two to three days in terms of forecasting (see the first post on page one), but forecasting precise snowfall figures is extremely fraught even at short range (not least because it’s a real task even trying to measure after the event).
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@nozawaonsen, Many thanks for your insightful knowledge, really appreciated. My question is more can you make a general prediction about the weather in the Alps next season? And if so, how accurate can that be? E.g.: can you predict it’s going to be generally a good snow season next year?
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My own view is not with any great confidence. Sometimes an especially strong climatic signal may be visible some months out. But these are only likely to allow you say that this increases the likelihood of this or that type of weather during the season. Not for a specific date nor more than saying the probability of this type of weather is increased or decreased, but even then it’s still hard to have real confidence.

So the potential shape starts to appear, like looking through a really fuzzy television picture. But that outline may subsequently shift or prove to be misleading.

So the higher the confidence you have in long term forecasts (good or bad) the more likely they are to trip you up.

That’s not to say that it can’t be interesting or fun to gaze out and try to pick out what may be coming. My advice would simply be not to take it that seriously. Wink
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
@nozawaonsen, the level 2 storm forecast, tornados, giant hail etc turned out to be a few rumbles of thunder and a couple of spots of rain.....

To be fair there was a fair sized group of thunder storms a bit to the north but nothing quite on the suggested scale of the forecast. Storms can be even more difficult than snow to forecast.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@munich_irish, yep the ESTOFEX alert talks of risks and possibilities rather than certainties.

Some localised flooding further east https://www.facebook.com/723834707729806/posts/3087623874684199/?vh=e&d=n
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@munich_irish, Also the timing on that... we were in the bikepark this morning with this massive thunderstorm forecast for the afternoon. That turned out to be just a bit of thunder as it was for you, but the rain came at 9am and we got very muddy.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
The week looks like starting with some warmer than average weather across the Alps and Pyrenees...



And ending that way too...





Though low pressure and colder weather look more influential the following week...

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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Hot (Vienna hit 37.2C yesterday) and at times quite explosive weather in Austria with some big thunderstorms and tennis ball sized hail where the hot weather tips over.

https://www.estofex.org/

Next Sunday and Monday could see heavy rain in the eastern Alps.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Looking back at the AAM, you can see how it was in the positive phase Mar Apr May, and then switched negative June and July.



Which lead to (or coincided with) high pressure over Europe Mar-May



And low pressure June - July (although July re-analysis isn't available yet, we know it wasn't dominated by HP)



The CFS has been pretty good at predicting AAM would turn positive again heading into August. Latest forecast below shows it's likely to stay mildly positive for at least the first half of the month.
Some commentators suggest it's more useful to note whether it's trending up or down, rather than whether it's above or below zero. Either way, it's rising now and heading positive.
It's only one indicator of course....there are many other factors that influence the weather here, so no guarantees but we should see the jet stream move further north than it has been.



Which is something we are starting to see in the short term and also the 8-10 day anomaly charts.... low pressure in the atlantic and a warm SW flow over Europe



Of course it's more than hot enough already in SW Europe, been a very dry spell in France bar a few thunderstorms in the mountains......so above relates more to the Azores high pressure reaching further north than has been
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
The Downstream impacts of Climate change are frequently apparent now. The speed of today’s plume for example is remarkable. Yesterday it was 13c here and pouring with rain at 10am. By 4pm this afternoon it will be 30c. A Ridiculous speed of change for our North Atlantic Island !

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-53601257
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
it may blow the 40C barrier in Grenoble today, already 38.9C, yesterday records were broken in south-west France where the thermometers reached 41.9C.
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Cooler and unsettled spell on Monday night could leave a fair few cms fresh up on Hintertux should anyone be tempted.
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
nozawaonsen wrote:
Cooler and unsettled spell on Monday night could leave a fair few cms fresh up on Hintertux should anyone be tempted.

I'll be in the area next Friday but Mrs M didn't sound too keen Wink
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You’d probably want to hit it Tuesday or Wednesday to take advantage looks like warming up again as we go through the week.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Over 30 degrees on Saturday but now its snowing! https://www.wetteronline.de/wetterticker/live-vor-ort-schnee-auf-der-zugspitze-202008041557443 . From the look of it the snow fairly widespread in western Austria and eastern Switzerland https://www.bergfex.com/diavolezza/webcams/c11546/. Here in southern Bavaria it has been a mini monsoon, the autobahn around Rosenheim is flooded. Back to 30 degrees at the weekend.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
l'Alpe d'Huez





Going back up to 35C in the valleys tomorrow.
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 You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Warm enough to sit outside in North Yorkshire this lunchtime which is nice. Bit chilly last couple of nights so Had the fire on. Looks like the bottom third of the uk will be warmer than average, even hot next week Cool
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Looks like it would have been rather fine up on Hintertux first thing with yesterday’s fresh snow.



Temperatures on the way up though across much of Europe the West especially, London looking particularly warm.



Currently looking above average in Alps till mid month at least


http://youtube.com/v/6Hxz6qJi-9k
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Lot's of chatter about temperature records being challanged in the UK over the next few days as the polar jet looks like staying north towards Iceland for a while.



Will be a lot of snow melt in Norway as well with high pressure in charge. Read they had the snowiest winter in 60years and 3 times normal snow depths well into late spring.
Same article has this snow depth chart of the northern hemisphere (excluding mountains?) showing 19/20 to be over 1 std deviation above mean.



Looking towards mid month, several indicators point down from around the 10th Aug, so we may start to see a more La Nina type set up return, but then again the models often underestimate the length of time it takes to change a set pattern such as the current euro block.
One feature that is interesting in the more reliable time frame is low pressure appearing near Northern Spain / Bay of Biscay, would lead to some big storms if it undercuts the high and hit's the heat dome over western europe.

ECM 12z Op is in line with the mean anomaly charts as high pressure centres near Scotland

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