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Ischgl was the secret virus hub in Europe (Important Info)t

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
As we don't have constant, ubiquitous testing there's no way of judging or recording/later anaylsing instantaneous infection rates, so all we will have to work with will be the "what percentage of the population has had it?" rate (and only then with widespread antibody testing - the NHS example I posted would clearly be biased upwards as that group were interacting directly and indirectly with confirmed Covid positive patients, as well as asymptomatic patients/fellow media staff/etc).

If we look back and find say small commuter towns (so 'similar' population size/mixing of people in and out of the town with wider populations) have antibody rates of say 50% then yes, an 85% rate in Ischgl would be statistically significant. If it's 75% though, you only need a 5% margin of error and that could be both on the same 80% rate.

Currently it's "piece of string" time. We have one piece of string 2m long and trying to decide if that's a long, or short piece. If it's a shoe laces, yes it is. If it's for mooring up an ocean lines, no it isn't. If it's a social distance measure, then it's spot on (this week at least).
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
We HAVE a few good samples : the ships like the Diamond Princess. The infection rate was about 20% and about 80% of those infected had no simptoms. There were about 3500 people on board. The numbers were similar on board of a US Navy Ship.
I think that the random testing done in Iceland has even lower numbers
Based on that, the 42% from Ischgl is very high. That could be good news for herd immunity
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
You cannot use the UK NHS for extrapolating C19 infection rates in the wider world.

UK hospitals are among the uncleanest and least-protected in the entire developed world and like a blackhole of plague death.

Even worse than Italy.

Some recent estimates suggest UK hospitals have madeup ~3% of the UK population, but ~50% of all deadly C19 spread!
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 You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
Some recent estimates suggest @Whitegold makes up ~50% of his statistics but only ~3% of readers believe any of them.
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
@DJL, give him some credit. He makes up at least 90% of his stats Toofy Grin
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 You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
Whitegold wrote:
You cannot use the UK NHS for extrapolating C19 infection rates in the wider world.

UK hospitals are among the uncleanest and least-protected in the entire developed world and like a blackhole of plague death.

Even worse than Italy.

Some recent estimates suggest UK hospitals have madeup ~3% of the UK population, but ~50% of all deadly C19 spread!


Verbier, zermatt, lech. What was the question again?!
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
[quote="Whitegold"]You cannot use the UK NHS for extrapolating C19 infection rates in the wider world.

UK hospitals are among the uncleanest and least-protected in the entire developed world and like a blackhole of plague death.

Even worse than Italy.

Some recent estimates suggest UK hospitals have madeup ~3% of the UK population, but ~50% of all deadly C19 spread![/quo

maybe we should give a little more thought to investing in the health services of this country. Please not start with 'but is appallingly managed, that's is given, and successive governments have failed to improve it. However if you want truly world-class (health, education, security and policing) you need to pay for it, time to wake up.

A 1p tax increase generated £7b per annum, I say go for it, In fact don't vote /elect any government which says it won't increase taxation.
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