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Is the 2020/2021 a non starter?

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
DidierCouch wrote:
davidof wrote:
Current word on the street is that Schengen + 1 zone will have external borders shut for the near future but you will be able to move internally from the start of summer. Guess who the +1 is?


Ireland?


it should be Ireland but it seems to mean the British Isles so 2 countries.

Talk of keeping the 60+ in quarantine until December in France now, expected that quarantine won't start to be lifted until mid-May (leaks to the press from the administration).
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
mitcva wrote:
I am saying that the EU, as an institution, has been utterly hopeless in this crisis,


Yet UK one of the worst affect countries in Europe...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52261859

Getting back on topic : I think there is a reasonable chance next winter *may* continue to be affected by Corona. Are Italy, Austria and France going to open doors to rest of world before we have vaccine?

Ski resorts / tourism will likely be one of the last things to open back up?
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
My hunch is - in theory there shouldn't be any problem skiing in Feb/Mar/Apr 2021.

BUT - there won't be enough clarity in Oct/Nov to allow the companies involved to commit to running a normal season (e.g. airlines, tour operators, chalet operators, bars, restaurants, ski schools etc).

So for the 2020/21 season people may need to hang on - and then self-drive etc once various resorts start opening their lifts.
ski holidays
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[quote="Haggis_Trap"]
mitcva wrote:
I am saying that the EU, as an institution, has been utterly hopeless in this crisis,


"Yet UK one of the worst affect countries in Europe..."

After Spain, Italy, France, Belgium... so far. Who knows how it will turn out.

But you are missing my point. Full points to many European countries; but not for the EU. There is a distinction. See:

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/10/coronavirus-crisis-truth-eu-union-financial-rescue

And yes, let's get back on topic. There was no need to insert remainer arguments in the first place.

I suspect we're going to see a fragmented unlocking of European ski countries (including key non EU ones, like Switzerland). Could be difficult to make plans more than a few months out.


Last edited by You need to Login to know who's really who. on Sun 12-04-20 16:45; edited 1 time in total
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@mitcva, do remember though that health is not a topic the EU deals with. It has always been the responsibility of the individual jurisdictions.

The one exception is medicines approval, the European Medicines Regulatory Agency recently booted out of London by our government. The test will come as whether they are ready to step up and minimise the time taken to scrutinise and determine requests for clinical trial authorisations and ultimately vaccine or medicine approvals related to Covid-19.

However the EU should have been more involved in coordinating the travel restrictions, since movement of people is very much one of its topics.

And it does look though as if the monetary union (not the same as the EU though there is quite a lot of overlap) has performed poorly. Given countries have given up their own money-issuing banks for the greater cause, in a crisis the European Central Bank should have recognised it has the responsibility to do what country central banks would do in a crisis.
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There has been no "U" in the EU.

Every man for himself, dog-eat-dog...you can choose.

Schengen? Each country abandoned that in turn and imposed their own controls, totally ignoring their Schengen treaty obligations.
Free trade? In the midst of Italy's crisis, when they begged for help with supplies some countries promptly made it illegal to export medical supplies!
Debt crisis? Coronabonds...no further comment needed. The North is perfectly content to see the South in ruination for years, even decades, to come.
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
rungsp wrote:
There has been no "U" in the EU.


So : What should the EU have done? Tighter fiscal and political integration something Eurosceptics have complained about for years rolling eyes

Lockdown surely something that needs done on regional / national basis? Scoring political points against EU over Corona seems particularly shallow : not least given the response from China, UK and US also questionable.

Politicians couldn't win this battle : basically given a choice of crashing economy or let millions die.


Last edited by Then you can post your own questions or snow reports... on Sun 12-04-20 17:26; edited 2 times in total
ski holidays
 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@frejul, agreed, we nearly went for a December ski but in the end plumped for Easter 2021 to see how the land lies. By then I can’t see economies will be still shut down-the social and economic implications would be beyond catastrophic. I’ve just booked (very cheap) EasyJet flights so far and a (refundable) car hire.
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@rungsp 'Whatabout?-ism' alive and well and living in Surrey, I see?

A decade of under-investment in the NHS; active rejection of a rise in pay for nurses (cue TOry MPs clapping); ignoring repeated warnings about regional/global pandemic threats; and a hopelessly slow initial response.

And the response? 'But what about the EU, then, eh?' - don't fall for that tired Trumpian response.
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Haggis_Trap wrote:
Getting back on topic : I think there is a reasonable chance next winter *may* continue to be affected by Corona. Are Italy, Austria and France going to open doors to rest of world before we have vaccine?

Ski resorts / tourism will likely be one of the last things to open back up?

Austria have said that they want to start getting hotels open in about four weeks, subject to review in the interim, so they are keen to get tourism going again. It’s a huge part of the economy here, as I’m sure you know. However, the govt won’t be so enthusiastic about opening the borders, especially to countries who haven’t got their outbreaks under control (UK is currently on the no travel list for Austria, along with a fair few other places), so I’m not sure how they will tackle that. The Austrians alone can’t keep their tourism industry going.
ski holidays
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Having read the above, I'm looking at Switzerland now. Or possibly Canada. Not EU, which is looking like it might be chaotic in terms of unlocking. I've been to Austria at least once a season for more than a decade. I'll miss it.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@LaForet, and you accuse me of what-aboutism when you then say

" A decade of under-investment in the NHS; active rejection of a rise in pay for nurses (cue TOry MPs clapping); ignoring repeated warnings about regional/global pandemic threats; and a hopelessly slow initial response."

You couldn't make it up!

At what point have I defended (indeed even mentioned) the UK as an example...never that's when.

There have been a lot of failings from a lot of different people and institutions...and the lack of "U" in the EU has been one of them.

Unusually I actually agree with @Haggis_Trap on this one:

"Politicians couldn't win this battle : basically given a choice of crashing economy or let millions die."

....though I would question the millions, but his theme is correct.
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So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@LaForet,
I work for a major supermarket group only part time,and make no excuses for them. it beggars belief about the situation. as you say 80% of a food sales is dominated by five corporations.the general public has only themselves to blame. not so long ago every high street would have 3/4 independant grocers, greengrocers and butchers sourcing their products locally.The supermarkets came along cheap and cheerful,shopping all in one convenient place, nice in the short term.
The public buying cheap the end result we end up with no choice.destroying the high street. the supermarkets have the nerve to critise Amazon.The long supply chain does not help, originally brought in looks good on paper.until things go wrong The supermarkets source from wholesalers who buy in massive economies scale. The milk distribution network dominated by a few companies , now leading to milk shortages is prime example.
We have similar situations in our ski equipment sales resulting in many shops closing and this was before COVID 19
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
rungsp wrote:
...and the lack of "U" in the EU has been one of them.
So the individual nation members of the EU are the ones in charge, not the EU Commission bossing them around, and they do their own thing when they want to.* Gosh, who would have thought that...

Laughing


* They have recently agreed a half a trillion Euros package to help the EU member nations recover from Covid-19
ski holidays
 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@j b,
Quote:

The one exception is medicines approval, the European Medicines Regulatory Agency recently booted out of London by our government.


Because WE don't need it. We have, and have always had, a regulatory body in the UK.

It's the EMA by the way, and do you have any idea what it does?

It collects information from bodies like the MHRA, and it's sole purpose is to save pharmaceutical companies money.

Instead of having to pay for regulatory approval in each country, the EU put a nice little back door in for them - a one off fee and hey-ho, a licence to print Euros.

Well you never know when a non-exec gig might come in handy for the bureaucrats eh.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
^ If we are going to export / import medicines across EU then it makes sense to have common standard ?
Remember that all EU members shared cost of European Medicines Agency : it just happened to be located in London.
As result of Brexit 900 skilled jobs are permanently lost from UK.

Truth of the matter is that Brexit (especially no-deal) is predicted by many to lead to medicine shortages in UK.
Indeed the cost of brexit has, thus far, cost UK far more than its membership contributions ever did.
For what benefit ?

Pharmacists’ concerns about medicine supply as Brexit nears
https://pharmafield.co.uk/pharma_news/pharmacists-concerns-about-medicine-supply-as-brexit-nears/

We need to be told which medicines are at risk in no-deal Brexit
https://www.theguardian.com/global/2019/aug/26/we-need-to-be-told-which-medicines-are-at-risk-in-no-deal-brexit

What could Brexit mean for our access to medicines?
https://www.birmingham.ac.uk/research/perspective/brexit-medicine-shortage.aspx
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Quote:

it's sole purpose is to save pharmaceutical companies money


@fatboyski, I have a lovely Thames bridge to sell if you are looking for one...
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, we’ve booked for next year. Mid- March.
11 of us going to Solden for my stag. Accom booked (deposit) and flights via EasyJet.

All confident that we will be skiing in 11 months time. If Europe is still in significant lockdown at that point....well a few hundred quid is going to be the least of our problems!
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Random question. If you fly into Geneva next year but, say France is on lockdown but switzerland isn’t (or vice versus) could you leave the airport by car (or rail) in the non-lockdown country?
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Dear Remainers.

Your side lost the argument nearly four years ago. And then in three subsequent elections. Get over it. Move on.

Let's talk about skiing, which we all love. We can agree on that, surely?
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mitcva wrote:
Dear HaggisTrap.
Your side lost the argument nearly four years ago. And then in three subsequent elections. Get over it. Move on.
Let's talk about skiing, which we all love. We can agree on that, surely?


For sure. The potent combination of Brexit uncertainty and Corona virus will make next winter uncertain for UK ski industry :

- How many companies will take risk of scheduling package holidays next winter?
- Will UK instructors be able to work in Europe next winter?
- What happens if we get second wave of Covid-19 next winter?
- When will European borders re-open? Including nations outside of the EU?
- Post-brexit UK tour operators will likely need to recruit young EU citizens (from Ireland / eastern Europe) to run their chalets & hotels?
- With current exchange rate (£1 : 1.1euro) how affordable will alpine skiing become for average Brit?
- How much will flights cost if a few airlines go bankrupt?


Last edited by You'll need to Register first of course. on Mon 13-04-20 10:51; edited 1 time in total
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
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My landlady in Switzerland booked the apartment for me in Feb for Jan - Mar 2021!
Switzerland are also due to hold a Referendum in mid May on whether to stay in Schengen area. I hope the Swiss leave - then my winter 3 months doesn't count in the Schengen area. (After 1 Jan next year we will be limited to 90 days in 180 in the Schengen area unless one has a long stay visa).
Major consideration will be probable lack of EHIC and replacing with long stay health travel insurance.
And I wonder how much of the government/civil servant machinery is working on anything other than Covid19??
ski holidays
 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Damn the doom mongers. I’ve booked Tignes for NY with a refundable deal and am on the notification list with Sunweb for the second week of Easter in VT to use my Corona voucher. Hoping for a random week with Snoworks out of school holiday time as am suspecting I’ll have loads of holiday to use up. Kids are booked on trips at half term and the first week of Easter (booked and deposit paid prior to CV). Blind optimism is better than moping around assuming the worst. If there’s no ski season next year then the consequences for ski schools, chalet owners etc would be catastrophic so I’m staying positive.
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RobH2017 wrote:
.... Blind optimism is better than moping around assuming the worst. If there’s no ski season next year then the consequences for ski schools, chalet owners etc would be catastrophic so I’m staying positive.
False dilemma.
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RobH2017 wrote:
Damn the doom mongers. Blind optimism is better than moping around assuming the worst.


Sticking head in sand is better than a little pragmatism and realism?

Our family trip for March 2020 was cancelled. Transferred the easy jet flights & apartment to Jan 2021.
Right now I reckon it is 50:50 if that will actually happen ? That is just life and reality of situation.
If there is no alpine skiing / EU travel permitted I am hopefully will be able to ski locally in Scotland next winter.



Last edited by Ski the Net with snowHeads on Mon 13-04-20 11:19; edited 1 time in total
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Quote:

If you fly into Geneva next year but, say France is on lockdown but switzerland isn’t (or vice versus) could you leave the airport by car (or rail) in the non-lockdown country?

Hypthetical, but interesting. My first response to that was "yes, definitely" as you can rent a car on the French side and drive without accessing the Swiss motorway. Bit of a fiddle, but perfectly doable. However, if Switzerland was on lockdown would the airport's international services be coming and going? On an international flight (e.g. easyjet from London) your luggage goes into the international side and if you don't have entry papers for Switzerland you can't get at it. So you'd need to fly without hold baggage.

If France was open for business I guess you could hook up to an internal French flight which would make entry and exit much easier, entirely on the French side of the airport.
ski holidays
 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Quote:

Let's talk about skiing, which we all love. We can agree on that, surely?

A major issue that will affect skiing next season is the combination of Covid-19 and Brexit. Let us not forget that Brexit was (until Covid-19 came along) the biggest threat to the UK ski industry for decades. Many companies were already uncertain of how they would be able to operate next season (think of the tens of thousands of British staff working chalets, hotels, transfer driving, maintenance, bars and restaurants etc.) Add on to this the huge uncertainty surrounding the whole industry, and that because of the Covid-19 crisis none of the negotiations required to prevent a catastrophic Brexit with no agreements on anything are actually happening, and even they do happen Brexit is no longer anyone's top priority. I believe, that, regrettably, substantial parts of the Ski Industry that UK skiers use simply will not exist next season.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
The UK death rate appears to be falling (another couple of days and we will have a clearer picture on that). People who died yesterday will on average have been in hospital for 14 days, and will have caught it on average 7 days before that. So they caught it *before* lockdown started. So even before lockdown started the number of people catching a case that was going to kill them was already falling.

If indeed this is the case, the corollary is that this is just an ordinary winter 'flu that was already blowing itself out; which explains why nobody is dying in Wuhan any longer. (Whether the Chinese manage to keep it out of the rest of the country is another matter.)
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Remainers remind me of the American politician who lost a senate election and said: "The people have spoken - the Fitzwilliams."

Democracy is a flawed system. But it is better than the alternatives.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
I feel optimistic the ski industry will somehow find a way round Brexit and Covid-19 travel restrictions.

The simple reason is they have to. Climate change and declining interest from young people pose enough of a threat as it is.
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mitcva wrote:
Remainers remind me of the American politician who lost a senate election and said: "The people have spoken - the Fitzwilliams."

Democracy is a flawed system. But it is better than the alternatives.


Scotland voted 62% remain. Freedom of speech means I am perfectly entitled to comment on what is being imposed by the brexit Tories.

Now : you wanted to talk skiing... Can you name one brexit benefit for skiers?
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At some point, the emphasis will probably shift from locking-down whole populations, to shielding the most vulnerable parts of those populations. Primary schools may open first, then secondary schools, etc. Given that most skiiers are younger and fitter than the population as a whole, might they be among the first to be let loose?
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
I understand the fatigue with political/economic issues but unfortunately, the ski industry lives inside a political and economic framework. So discussions about next season are invariably going to involve these factors. If people sound negative, it's only because we're in the middle of the fallout from three big negatives: Global Heating, Brexit and Coronavirus. On top of an existing trend that the market for ski holidays was already declining. So if you ask 'Is 2020-21 a non-starter?' surely, the predictions at this point in time are going to be predominantly negative? If only because of uncertainty over Brexit's 31.12.2020 and Coronavirus in combination.

So I'm with @RobinS in scoring all the different factors to come out on balance negative, with a lot of Alpine businesses and airlines going under. But I have to say that, counterintuitively, a lot of the finance articles I've seen recently read far more positively i.e. that his isn't a 1929-like recession, and that if governments manage to preserve key industries (of which, surely, tourism is one?) long enough to do a 'warm restart' then indeed, 2021 may be a better season than seems likely now.
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@LaForet, I am with you on that ...
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
The underlying problem is that nobody really know what is going to happen, and uncertainty is bad for business. Look at Project Fear in the run up to the Brexit referendum; we were told the UK economy would collapse and unemployment would soar the very moment we voted to leave (George Osborne, May 23, 2016). In the event, the economy boomed and employment reached record highs.

I'm not making light of the problems facing ski resorts - they are all too real, and no doubt post-Brexit deal issues contribute to the uncertainty. The current main problem is how we get out of the lockdown. And until governments across the world start to reveal their plans, we simply won't know. And even then, will these plans, whatever they are, actually work?

One benefit, I suppose, of different countries doing their own thing, is that we might be able to see what works and what doesn't, and make adjustments accordingly. Sweden never really went into lockdown, and Denmark is emerging soon, I gather. There is hope.
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https://www.ft.com/content/d48f0438-7b1b-11ea-af44-daa3def9ae03

From FT, after lockdown
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
mitcva wrote:
Given that most skiiers are younger and fitter than the population as a whole, might they be among the first to be let loose?


An alternate view is that ski towns are virus hot-spots : people flying in weekly from all over world to shared accommodation.
The European corona black-spots seem to have been Ischgl, St Anton, Verbier and Chamonix...

FWIW : I agree that no one knows what the release from lock-down will look like.
China seems to be managing to avoid a second-wave thus far.
ski holidays
 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
{Look at Project Fear in the run up to the Brexit referendum; we were told the UK economy would collapse and unemployment would soar the very moment we voted to leave (George Osborne, May 23, 2016). In the event, the economy boomed and employment reached record highs.}

I can't let this misconception pass, I'm afraid.

Loads of people predicted loads of different things, some of which happened, others of which didn't, some of which took a lot longer to happen, some of which weren't as bad but still not good. This is the nature of predictions.

The BoE predicted that the trade £ would devalue - it did, 22%. And this wouldn't be temporary - it is still down 11%. And it would cost us more in imports - it has, £220bn extra to date. And foreign investment would drop - it has, 30% down in the UK vs 48% up in the EU27. And so on.

Employment did indeed reach record highs - with 633,000 job vacancies in the UK at the last 'normal' count. Which makes it all the more inexcusable that the Government was happy to see 10,000 EU nurses and clinicians go home in 2017 alone and have no plan to replace them. And for Tory MPs to cheer and applaud themselves for rejecting the bill to give nurses more pay. The Home Secretary's new points system implemented last week will make it even harder for us to attract them back.
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Here's something to cheer us up. I'd love to go back to Zermatt. Special place.

https://www.climber.co.uk/news/news/zermatt-sends-uk-message-of-solidarity/
ski holidays
 Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Quote:


There has been no "U" in the EU.

Every man for himself, dog-eat-dog...you can choose.

Schengen? Each country abandoned that in turn and imposed their own controls, totally ignoring their Schengen treaty obligations.


That is a misrepresentation of the Schengen Treaty; the Treaty has always provided that member states can unilaterally close borders where there is a "serious public policy or security threat" which is the case here.

Always the circular argument from Brexiters. For years, the Eurosceptics blocked more health co-ordination in the EU. When there is an health emergency, they then say "Look, the EU hasn't done anything!". One minute they say that EU countries can't make their own laws, the next they say "Why are all the EU countries making their own laws?"

Regardless, to go ahead with ending the Transition period in Dec 2020 now looks utterly obscene. It will pile a Brexit recession upon the Coronavirus recession for the UK.

If the UK does not extend TP beyond December, we can all forget going skiing next year. The EU will not open the borders to third countries that early. Within the EU, I suspect there will be travel allowed under strict conditions, possibly "live" testing both at check-in at airports to show passengers are actively negative for coronavirus, and then again on arrival at destination. (such tech is being examined at the US- Canada border but is only really usable for short haul - on a long flight you could test negative on boarding but positive by the time you alight).
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