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The All New 19/20 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Finally a potential reason to pack wide skis for the Birthday Bash Smile
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@leggyblonde, I'll be at 2,000m anyway (Reberty) so should be OK! Very Happy
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
There I was looking forward to the possibility of snow arriving, and wasn't even thinking it might come as rain instead. Hope forecast is wrong about rising temps at the end of the month.
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Canillo in Andorra
https://www.instagram.com/p/B7nq_N4IjJU/?utm_source=ig_web_button_share_sheet
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Eyne (Cambre d'Aze, FR)

Woooooooooooh
https://www.facebook.com/302391446628746/posts/1248457468688801/
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Pretty weird how the GFS main run is constantly on the edges of the ensemble.
For example this for Tignes: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=&y=&lat=45.5&lon=6.9&runpara=0&type=6&ext=1

Anybody who has an explanation for that?
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Tuesday in Andorra...



Wednesday in Andorra...

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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Onnem wrote:
Eyne (Cambre d'Aze, FR)

Woooooooooooh
https://www.facebook.com/302391446628746/posts/1248457468688801/


I'll be there in 15 hours' time or so, and will confirm if it's real! Wink
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[quote="altaski8"]Good post denfinella.

Piste skiers don't need much except sunshine and alcohol.

Please elaborate @altaski8, all piste skiers need alcohol?
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Pyremaniac wrote:
Onnem wrote:
Eyne (Cambre d'Aze, FR)

Woooooooooooh
https://www.facebook.com/302391446628746/posts/1248457468688801/


I'll be there in 15 hours' time or so, and will confirm if it's real! Wink


Any info welcome! Will be there in 3 and a half weeks- doubt it will all melt by then Very Happy
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
Quote:
all piste skiers need alcohol?


Do bears go about their business in the woods? Laughing
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
[quote="ribblevalleyblue"]
altaski8 wrote:
Good post denfinella.

Piste skiers don't need much except sunshine and alcohol.

Please elaborate @altaski8, all piste skiers need alcohol?

mountainaddict wrote:
Quote:
all piste skiers need alcohol?


Do bears go about their business in the woods? Laughing
Razz

European skiing seems to be largely centered around the on-mountain culinary experience and frequent ski breaks replete with espresso, beer, wine, or aperol. There is always an alcoholic beverage (or 3) on every table, which would seem unusual in the US (where people drink a lot more water in restaurants, because it's free). The apres also starts early and ends late. North Americans don't do apres ski very well. European resort reviews always mention the hüttes, alms, or rifugios. It reminds me of Floridians discussing a Caribbean cruise.

North American skiers like to drink alcohol too. But it is secondary to skiing. On-mountain food options tend to be limited and expensive. So most, excluding the truly wealthy, pack a sandwich and eat it in the base lodge. The focus is on the terrain and the powder. And considering the exorbitant price of lift tickets these days, there is no time to focus on anything else.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@altaski8, you must eat in very different European places to me, I wouldn’t say I see alcohol on every table!
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
But the general gist is correct, I think. Also, there's a world of difference between people on a once- or twice-yearly snow holiday and people who are fortunate enough to drive up for a day trip as if it were a merely a walk in the woods. I take a sandwich, a chocolate bar and a bag of nuts. Don't usually bother with €40 in a hut with lunch and wine (although exceptions can be made where there's value for money, such as in several places in Andorra and the French Pyrenees. Not so much in Spain though).


Last edited by You know it makes sense. on Wed 22-01-20 23:04; edited 1 time in total
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Wooooooooooooooohhhh

Eastern Pyrenees
https://www.nevasport.com/phorum/read.php?48,4051400,4102849#msg-4102849

https://cdn.wintersport.nl/forum/26/ef41271fd2a0759c9b928cba93fcd748_863566.jpg https://cdn.wintersport.nl/forum/26/c4a1be188f6d9416190fe6043cdb164c_863567.jpg https://cdn.wintersport.nl/forum/26/7aa6e85dfacf31a5a66be39b6ba9a6fe_863612.jpg https://cdn.wintersport.nl/forum/26/3cde865aef192cfd4a8fa3a4f13dc7de_863722.jpg
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
kitenski wrote:
@altaski8, you must eat in very different European places to me, I wouldn’t say I see alcohol on every table!

I've skied a ton on both continents. There are some distinct differences and some clear pros and cons, which I won't list.

Without question there is more alcohol consumption during the ski day in Europe than in North America. A drink on every table is obviously impossible and an exaggeration, but is it clearly a bigger part of the ski experience over here. Associated with that, the food and beverage options are clearly superior, and generally more affordable. On the flip side, Americans rarely pilot boats of any size without consuming alcohol. It is as far as I know the only official requirement to captain a private boat.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
We have our fair share of skiers here in Europe who go first to last lift with only a brief lunch pause, too, altaski8. I used to be one of them, but I'm not allowed to be any more Smile.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@altaski8, i guess i can only speak for my self, but i think it depends on the circumstances; when its powder day i wouldnt have a beer until the day is over, but right now - with piste bashing and sunshine - i see no reason at all not to have a few and enjoy some good food.
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Not sure how the amount of beer consumed at lunchtime on the slopes affects the NAO or the jetstream Very Happy
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Some differences between the 12z ECM and the 18z GFS. The latest EC run is more robust with the system on the 28th/29th, clipping the N French Alps and NW Swiss Alps pretty good with moderate precip and wind. The GFS continues to show a paltry and mostly dry front with this. The 12z Canadian model is also in the wetter/colder camp showing significant snowfall beginning around the 28th and focusing on the NW Alps, but then spreading the love throughout most of the range.

Even more uncertainty exists for the latter period. The 18z looked colder and snowier for the Jan 31 system, while the EC and Canadian looked rainier and warmer over that period and beyond.

There is also a sneaky threat for some isolated light snow accumulations this weekend with two weak impulses in succession dampening out over the Alps.

The increased threat of storminess brings fresh snow potential but also the threat of rain. At this point I'm willing to role the dice. There does not appear to be any indication of a locked-in wintry pattern on the horizon unfortunately.
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under a new name wrote:
@horgand, errr, I was skiing what had been really nice spring snow today (we were too late due too much climbing) so I wouldn't write the off piste off completely.

(If you really are powder chasing surely you should be looking at Japan or Canada... ? )


Yup, you're right we should be going to Japan or Canada, but we're heading to Val next week anyhow, so we're just gonna have to make the best of it.....

I'd be up for a trip to Canada or Japan later this season though..... anyone planning one!?
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Japan having a stuttering start to the season compared to normal apparently.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/23/japans-lack-of-snow-melts-olympic-cooling-plans-and-wrecks-ski-season
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Meanwhile early morning course inspection ahead of final downhill training session in Kitzbühel. Weather looking good for race.



Photo from Hahnenkamm FB page.
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@horgand, I’d be surprised if it’s not a lot better than you are expecting.
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If anyone wants to do some text analytics, I suspect you could quickly settle the argument about whether it's a good or bad season by searching for the number of posts on this thread each year that actually talk about the forecast...

My experience over the last few years is that prolonged dry periods with little prospect of snow mean lots of chat about how terrible the season is, and not much chat about whether the 06z is looking promising. I reckon this year is on the low side but not the worst...still a bit of forecast chat, but quite a lot of gnashing of teeth.

As an aside, I agree with whoever was saying they've still got some hope for the front on 28th - the 00z still shows a decent spike. Whether there's a little or a medium amount, only time will tell.
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ChrisWo wrote:


As an aside, I agree with whoever was saying they've still got some hope for the front on 28th - the 00z still shows a decent spike. Whether there's a little or a medium amount, only time will tell.


It looks like it could be wet to quite a high line, I’d rather dry and Sunny to be honest.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
It doesn't look so bad? But yes, I'm in the fortunate position of being relatively high up (another one in Val), so that might be colouring my view
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@kitenski,

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gfhd4hnq0#2020-01-25
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@scotspikey, cheers! Wanting to try and ski Glencoe a few days this season especially after the fire.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Current snow situation in Switzerland:

https://www.slf.ch/en/avalanche-bulletin-and-snow-situation.html#hsm
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
I just checked snowforecast for Western Norway and was getting excited, so checked the GFS ensembles - thought I would share it because it's comical - after 3-4 days its just a random collection of scribbles:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/ens_image.php?geoid=91648&var=201&run=0&date=2020-01-23&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

I can't figure out how to get embeddable images out of Wetterzentrale, apologies.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@bobmcstuff, I would suggest the large random element implies there is a large uncertainty in the forecast. I would be dubious that the "average" line is an accurate forecast. If there is such variability in the outcomes then averaging out the numbers is probably not the best option. There will be other better qualified folk than me able to offer a better technical explanation.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
munich_irish wrote:
@bobmcstuff, I would suggest the large random element implies there is a large uncertainty in the forecast. I would be dubious that the "average" line is an accurate forecast. If there is such variability in the outcomes then averaging out the numbers is probably not the best option. There will be other better qualified folk than me able to offer a better technical explanation.


Yes, I understand that the greater the divergence the greater the uncertainty in the forecast. It's just such a vast divergence!

What was funny (to me) is the way snow-forecast is presenting a nice number for snow on e.g., the 31st Jan when the ensembles show it's a complete crapshoot, it's even more fantastical than the FI people talk about for alpine forecasts. I'm used to looking at GFS ensembles for the alps and these look closer to what you'd expect for Scotland, but even more amplified (in terms of wild variability).

Still, at the moment snow-forecast reckons a metre or so of snow over the next week followed by sunshine on the 1st when I'll be there so I am going to choose to believe it anyway because it fits what I want Wink
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latest forecast from bergfex looks good for next Tuesday

https://www.bergfex.com/schneevorhersage/5/
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
The 06z GFS was an improvement for most of the Alps in the medium range, excluding the southern Alps. It was a little colder with a few modest systems impacting the region through the end of the month. Inter- and intra-model uncertainty remains high, however, and a warm flow off the Atlantic continues to threaten in the medium and long-term.

Confidence is increasing in the possibility of a light to moderate-impact frontal system around the 28th. The ECM, GFS, ICON, and CMC continue to show this feature with slight timing differences and varying degrees of impact, although it is weakening as it approaches the mountains. How far SE this front penetrates and if the follow up energy impacts the area as well or shunts north and east is still very unclear.

There is also a sneaky threat for isolated light snow (maybe locally 10cm?) in parts of the Alps (guidance currently targets Austria) this Sat/Sun, although this is also low confidence.
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Heading to Skiwelt area on Saturday for a week of skiing. Early indications are for a mixture of snow and rain showers on some of the days. I have never experienced skiing in rain before. Is precipitation likely to fall as rain above valley level and if so what is rains impact on skiing conditions?
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@raheen, right now I’d say it looks ok for Skiwelt, though there is a lot of uncertainty in the outlook from 28/29 January onwards.

If you do get rain then if you can it’s best to try to get above the snow line. Rain isn’t super fun though actually light rain can soften things pleasantly (ish). It’s just not that fun to be in. And if it’s pouring down then pub, spa or jigsaw may be better options.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Any thoughts or indications on what might be in the future for Gudauri in Georgia? I've booked a trip for the start of March and it looks like they're having one of their worst seasons in ages. Are there particular patterns to watch for to bring snow to the Caucuses, or any useful forecasting sites?
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@element, looks pretty quiet.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=42.5.&lon=44.5
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Guess this is what climate change looks like for the alps ?
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