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The All New 19/20 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Vallter 2000. Prediction is for over 500 mm !!!
https://www.infonieve.es/estacion-esqui/vallter-2000/meteo/

Here's the webcams
https://www.infonieve.es/estacion-esqui/vallter-2000/webcams/
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Cambre d'Aze (other side of the same mountain ridge) is closed next 2 days as a precaution...

Snow https://www.cambre-d-aze.com/fr/ski/bulletin-neige
Webcams https://www.cambre-d-aze.com/fr/webcams
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Today all the good of GFS12 and EC12 has been flushed away in GFS00 and EC00... Evil or Very Mad

Far more zonal flow bringing very little snow on the cold front the 29th and 30th, followed by a warm front the 31st that brings a bucket of warm water all the way up to over 2000m...

Luckily still too far away to take serious and furthermore the GFS main run is pretty high up in the ensemble: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?lat=45.5&lon=6.9&type=6&ext=1 (location around Tignes)
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Cold this morning!

-18C St Jakob im Defereggen
-16.8C Radstadt
-16.1C Lech

https://www.zamg.ac.at/cms/de/wetter/wetterwerte-analysen/hitliste

Sun burning through mist. Mountains look stunning.
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@Onnem those predictions for the eastern Pyrenees are wildly optimistic I feel. What looked like it might become a historic snowmageddon event has wound down a little and it'll be a mere 2m that falls over Vallter2000 and the Canigou; a season-defining moment for the Catalan Pyrenees nonetheless. And also great news for the rest of the range: it seems that the storm will now share the wealth over the whole of the Pyrenees, so every resort will get at least something.
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The regional Home Office of Catalonia has suspended all outdoor activities in the Provinces of Girona and Barcelona and in Central Catalonia, due to the violent storm; meaning that all Spanish Pyrenean resorts from Andorra eastwards and southwards should be shut - and will no doubt remain that way tomorrow too. https://mobile.twitter.com/emergenciescat/status/1219299767295139844 . Yet Masella is open currently so who knows... Maybe the message couldn't get through the storm Smile. I've heard that the resorts on the French side are also closed, as Onnem says.
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Certainly the webcams are looking pretty tasty already- looks at least 30 cm already with half the day gone!
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Here it is on ECM via Kachelmanwetter.

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06z interesting for the Alps. As the Atlantic breaks through there is always the risk of up and down temperatures, but there are good opportunities for snow too.
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Seeing first forecast of any worthwhile snow for Monterosa area now, 28cm for the end of next week (on SCGB, so presumably from GFS). Too far out to be credible yet, but I can hope. Need a lot more than that, but it's way better than nothing!
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https://www.connexionfrance.com/French-news/Roads-closed-and-power-cut-as-Storm-Gloria-hits-Pyrenees-Orientales-France?fbclid=IwAR32c2m-MywLSTKRziJsWcz4gT4q6y5HN18w5XFFmbTEX4de-eu7mlHGkcA
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Excuse my lack of forecasting expertise - I rely on j2ski for my forecasts Very Happy Is this forecast way too far out to get excited? This is for Grand Massif next week: https://www.j2ski.com/snow_forecast/France/Grand_Massif_snow.html

Showing snow fall from Wed 29th for a few days
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@CosmoJo, it's a bit too early to pin down any detail, but it does look like some precipitation is likely at some point in the few days from Tuesday next week onwards. Possibly for quite a wide swathe of the Alps, but focused on the northwest (i.e. including the Grand Massif).

Temperatures looking like they'll vary quite a bit, so it may be rain at times for lower altitudes. The snowline forecast on the link you mention seems too optimistic to me (but I'm not quite sure what "resort level" refers to in terms of the Grand Massif). I don't think a mega-dump is on the cards, but a few small falls might add up to a useful amount.
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CosmoJo wrote:
Excuse my lack of forecasting expertise - I rely on j2ski for my forecasts Very Happy Is this forecast way too far out to get excited?


Sadly yes too far out to get excited, expect it to change a fair between now and Monday next week when it should start to settle down a bit....
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Europe desperately needs snowfall.

What started as a good season in Nov has deteriorated bad in Dec and Jan.

Places like Bulgaria, Finland, and Scotland have almost no real snow.

Most everything in Austria below 1000m has turned green.

The lake in Zell am See, where they once raced cars in Jan, is unfrozen at the peak of winter.

Many stations in the Pyrenees have little or no snow at 1800m.

Some snowfall on the way this week, but more is needed.

Or Feb will be icy, and resorts will start closing early in March.
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I'm with Whitegold here. And he hasn't even mentioned the possibility of a meteorite strike wiping out all life on Earth, which is clearly something to bear in mind too.
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More snow is needed? Looking at the webcams its going to be 150cm/250cm in the Pyrenees resort by the end of the week at this rate!
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Whitegold wrote:
Europe desperately needs snowfall.

What started as a good season in Nov has deteriorated bad in Dec and Jan.

Places like Bulgaria, Finland, and Scotland have almost no real snow.

Most everything in Austria below 1000m has turned green.


More snow is definitely needed - but it's white to the valley at 560m here still.



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clarky999 wrote:


More snow is definitely needed - but it's white to the valley at 560m here still.



There's a coating of snow in Munich too. This has still been a dreadful winter so far. Definitely in the 90+ percentile for futility throughout most of western Europe and the Alps. And the medium - long range doesn't look any better at the moment. Just a very fast, zonal flow persistently depicted. The polar vortex is planted up near the pole.
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@altaski8, got some stats to back that up? In 20 years of going to NW French Alps, I remember at least 25-30% that included patches of uncovered pistes in January.
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I don't think this season is as bad as 10/11, although obviously there is still quite a while left for that to change.

Most of the areas seem to have a good base at altitude.
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The season has been acceptable enough in the Pyrenees so far. Down here we're perfectly accustomed to the three or four weeks of high pressure from Christmas to now, which brings plenty of sunshine and hardly any snowfall. It's been regular as clockwork for the last 15 years, with just one or two exceptions. For us, in the first half of the season, it's what happens in November and early December that matters most, in terms of getting snow on the ground.

It seems that most of the ski stations are happy with the takings so far, since there was a lot of snow in time for the early December bank holiday and good sunny conditions for Christmas, New Year and Three Kings (Twelfth Night). It's been a bit boring from my point of view, but that's a different and subjective thing. The unusual thing this year - which caused a fair bit of trouble and has spoilt the season for a handful of areas such as Luchon Superbagnères - was the days and days of rain at high altitude at the start of December. But thanks to the excellent snowmaking that the Pyrenees are famous for, the damage has been pretty much repaired.

And this storm will now give the eastern side of the Pyrenees something to cheer about. (Unfortunately the same can't be said for almost everywhere else in the nearby coastal regions where things have been very hairy indeed.)

Down here not every season is a great one, but we haven't had a awful one for more than a decade now. I was hoping that this one would be an epic, but it's been pretty uneventful until now. Perhaps this storm will kick off an exciting second half of the season? February and March is typically when the Pyrenees comes into its own (and why I invariably recommend that dedicated snow-chasers come between mid-Feb and early March precisely).


Last edited by After all it is free Go on u know u want to! on Tue 21-01-20 18:49; edited 1 time in total
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It's not been a dreadful winter at all. Maybe Alpe d'Huez has been lucky this year but it's been a fine winter so far.
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Was 10/11 particularly bad? I just checked where I went that winter and it was Champoluc in the Monterosa area, at the end of Jan. As I recall, conditions were pretty good there - or, at least, I don't remember the snow being bad.
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@J2R, Just looked at photos from Jan 2011 and Meribel looked fine to me. Not snowy, but that was the general expectation for January back then. Looks about the same as now to be honest.
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@altaski8, whilst I tend to agree with your pessimism about the outlook for snow in the coming weeks the season so far has been reasonable. Some places had great early season snow and pretty much everywhere was open over Christmas & New Year. I was in the Arlberg at the weekend and conditions were pretty good, there was fresh powder on Sunday morning and the pistes are in good nick all the way to the valley. Most places seem to have had similar conditions. I agree conditions could be better but they could be a good deal worse too. A point to bear in mind is the extensive snow making facilities which mean there can be decent piste conditions even when not so much of the natural stuff. Very much a change from when I started sliding about on frozen water!
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The Alps does refer to a geographically and climatologically varied region, so generalizing over the entire area is probably not warranted. The French Alps are a relatively small part of that region but also seem to have a disproportionately high percentage of British ski tourists. The Dolomites had decent cover when I visited a few weeks ago, especially considering that that's a relatively dry area. But almost everything north of the main Alpine ridge is thin, especially at mid and low elevations. Further east has been pretty poor too. And all of the smaller areas outside the Alps are suffering too. There's a lot of green around, which is not typical of January at these northerly latitudes.
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Snowmaking has saved the pistes. In fact most people don't need any natural snow to enjoy the pistes. But off-piste conditions have been well below average for several weeks now. New snow is also not binding well to old snow because of weeks and weeks of frost on the surface layer and natural disintegration of the snow crystals.
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I think everyone is a guilty of a bit of generalisation and anecdotal experience here.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@altaski8,
Quote:

This has still been a dreadful winter so far


What p1sh are you talking? I have had a lovely winter so far. You are talking absolute sh1te.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
altaski8 wrote:
clarky999 wrote:


More snow is definitely needed - but it's white to the valley at 560m here still.



There's a coating of snow in Munich too. This has still been a dreadful winter so far. Definitely in the 90+ percentile for futility throughout most of western Europe and the Alps. And the medium - long range doesn't look any better at the moment. Just a very fast, zonal flow persistently depicted. The polar vortex is planted up near the pole.


No question snowfall has been way below normal, but I've had been pleasantly surprised by better than expected ski conditions (on and off piste) every time I've been out. Could definitely be better but it could be a lot lot worse too. No föhn for a while at least!
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under a new name wrote:
@altaski8,
Quote:

This has still been a dreadful winter so far


What p1sh are you talking? I have had a lovely winter so far. You are talking absolute sh1te.

Austria and Germany primarily. Where the ski trails are generally lower than in France and Switzerland. If it weren't for one good storm around Christmas time, there would be almost no snow cover below 2000m. Fortunately that event coincided with a very low sun angle, which has helped preserve the little snow that fell. Otherwise it has been relatively warm and dry for almost 2 months.

But even in Switzerland most snow depth stations are below average for this time of year.
https://www.slf.ch/en/avalanche-bulletin-and-snow-situation/measured-values.html#snow
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@altaski8, so you are generalising, rather a lot, country to country, on something which can vary massively, valley to valley.

So your opinion is worth exactly what it costs.

I think I've been out 30+ days so far? each one was well worth it. Well, in fairness, one was only worth it due the lunch at the top of the climb, but, hey...

Are you old enough to remember the Northern French Alps in 1989-90? Snow before xmas, no snow after until (?) late Feb/early March. (And not much snowmaking).

That was a poor season, locally.
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under a new name wrote:
Are you old enough to remember the Northern French Alps in 1989-90? Snow before xmas, no snow after until (?) late Feb/early March. (And not much snowmaking).

That was a poor season, locally.
Yes I do
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@altaski8, I dont think that there is any disagreement that snow fall in northern Europe (from the main spine of the alps and north to the arctic circle) has been much lower than "normal". Scandanavia has seen very warm weather eg https://www.severe-weather.eu/recent-events/very-warm-day-norway-sunndalsora-warm-night-mk/ and many of the small non alpine resorts have little or no snow. It also appears that snow fall has been below average in most of the alps. However the season has not been "dreadful" for ski resorts in the alps, partly as a result of a couple of episodes of heavy snow coupled with low sun and also partly as a result of snow making (largely developed in the Dolomites which has a pretty dry winter climate). There is still decent skiing to be had in most places. A few seasons back I didnt bother skiing until February as there simply was not enough snow in the Austrian alps for it to be worthwhile, not like that this year.

With the various climatic changes the sort of weather patterns we are seeing are not surprising and in the longer term many ski resorts may not be viable however so far this season its been OK.
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under a new name wrote:
@altaski8,
Quote:

This has still been a dreadful winter so far


What p1sh are you talking? I have had a lovely winter so far. You are talking absolute sh1te.


Big +1
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munich_irish wrote:
@altaski8, I dont think that there is any disagreement that snow fall in northern Europe (from the main spine of the alps and north to the arctic circle) has been much lower than "normal". Scandanavia has seen very warm weather eg https://www.severe-weather.eu/recent-events/very-warm-day-norway-sunndalsora-warm-night-mk/ and many of the small non alpine resorts have little or no snow. It also appears that snow fall has been below average in most of the alps. However the season has not been "dreadful" for ski resorts in the alps, partly as a result of a couple of episodes of heavy snow coupled with low sun and also partly as a result of snow making (largely developed in the Dolomites which has a pretty dry winter climate). There is still decent skiing to be had in most places. A few seasons back I didnt bother skiing until February as there simply was not enough snow in the Austrian alps for it to be worthwhile, not like that this year.

With the various climatic changes the sort of weather patterns we are seeing are not surprising and in the longer term many ski resorts may not be viable however so far this season its been OK.


Not just Scandinavia - Temperatures have been well above normal throughout Europe since November. Not directly due to climate change, but rather due to a persistently unfavorable longwave pattern drawing in Atlantic air. You aptly describe the reasons this winter has been poor and then conclude that it's still decent because it's not the worst ever. That's not very convincing.

I've skied for almost 30 years, all over the world. Maybe we just disagree about the definition of "decent skiing." From a west coast, North American perspective, this qualifies as a dreadful winter. Sadly North American skiing is, for the most part, no longer affordable.
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Vallter 2000 (ES) - in the meantime over 100 cm's of fresh snow.
https://www.esquiades.com/en/skiresort/vallter-2000/ski-track-conditions/

Latest photos
https://www.facebook.com/pg/vallter2000/photos/?tab=album&album_id=357058981056362&ref=page_internal

Cambre d'Aze, french side of the same mountain, looks like this
https://www.facebook.com/pg/vallter2000/photos/?tab=album&album_id=357058981056362&ref=page_internal

And even a video
https://www.facebook.com/cambredaze/videos/175182853585767/


And the heaviest snow is still to come, this night.
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altaski8 wrote:

Austria and Germany primarily. Where the ski trails are generally lower than in France and Switzerland. If it weren't for one good storm around Christmas time, there would be almost no snow cover below 2000m.


I can only speak for Tyrol, and again I agree that snowfall has been significantly less than normal, but as well as that Christmas storm we had a lot of snow in November (especially in the big southerly valleys) and skiing to the valley at all my local resorts (apart from Nordkette) since then; plus snow in mid Dec, locally 20-40cm in early Jan, and 20-30cms last weekend. Could be much worse.
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