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The All New 19/20 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Ptspeak wrote:
Toadman wrote:
DanishRider wrote:
Tordi wrote:
@DanishRider, exceptional timing!
No idea how i do it, but it works:-)


Well, if you had been really lucky you would have been a cross the pond skiing Jackson Hole, or Alta, Snowbird, Park City. Or Crystal Mt. WA, or Mt Bachelor OR. They have been getting the goods the past few days.

Whistler has had a sluggish start but playing catch-up . I’m headed there Friday. The Peak and Blackcomb glacier have yet to open.


Lots of high winds the past several days. Wind loading and instability with the snow pack are the issues. Patrol has its work cut out for them. Whistler should see another storm hit on Wed. evening into Thursday. Forecast calling from 20cm-50cm. Cold temps too as the storm is coming out of the Gulf of Alaska and there is some very cold arctic air already in place. A second low pressure further out is forecast to arrive on Friday. Then at 7 days out GFS showing what appears to be some more activity. So your timing is good.
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Big shift west on the GFS 12z...background signals still pointing the right way....slowing vortex, siberian cold, amplified ridge towards Iceland / Greenland.
Extended anomaly charts still favour the eastern end for this pattern, but if the arozes high pulls out of France enough like below then would lead to more widespread cold and snow
gfs-0-228

ECM mean pressure anom's Jan 23-28
ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500-anom-5day-0169600-png-b516114ac92f50f7077a0df58eb3ca7e
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Took me 5 minutes to find Europe on that last one.
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Fair enough....it's just a vague idea of where things might go that week....nicked it from another site

#badsnowhead

easier to see this way up

ECMWF-ENSEMBLE-AVG-NHEMI-Z500-ANOM-5-DAY-0169600-PNG-B516114-AC92-F50-F7077-A0-DF58-EB3-CA7-E

Mostly NW flow...would bring chances for snow to reach northern alps


Last edited by You need to Login to know who's really who. on Tue 14-01-20 20:31; edited 1 time in total
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Cyprus 100% open and having a great season.

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@polo, ha, thanks! I can see it now. Very Happy
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Continuing to slide back and forth here is 18z...

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I have no clue what you guys are talking about but I am sure that St. Anton will have some fresh snow this weekend ...
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Cheapski wrote:
I have no clue what you guys are talking about but I am sure that St. Anton will have some fresh snow this weekend ...


I'm sure too. Looks like maybe foot on Saturday in nearish-by Obergurgl.

Travelling out Friday - quite well timed.
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clarky999 wrote:
parigi wrote:


Is there a handy guide somewhere to what people mean by the different designations like "northern", "western", "eastern" etc? I'm never quite sure and it seems I'm not the only one. Does "western and northern" mean, roughly, everywhere except the Dolomites and the Balkans?


Very roughly:



As above, in terms of weather, it's which side of the alpine ridge that is important, less whether a resort is physically more north or south than another. Ie Chamonix is more southerly than the Dolomites, but is on the north and west side of the alpine ridge so benefits from totally different weather systems.


@clarky999, where does Mayrhofen sit, above or below your horizontal line, it feels almost on it?
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@clarky999, where does Mayrhofen sit, above or below your horizontal line, it feels almost on it?[/quote]

Just above. Suspect Hintertux is just about on it.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
So watching with interest as I have a guide booked from le Praz on Saturday and a mornings XC lesson on the Sunday.

For that area http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-montagne/la-tania/73600

Seems to be suggesting the heavy snow will come in later Friday and may even clear by Sat PM, which would hopefully make Sat a great day for some off piste skiing down after touring up!
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@ribblevalleyblue, as @buchanan101 said, Mayrhofen and most of Zillertal just above it, but the valley snakes south with Hintertux glacier (like Stubai, Sölden, Obergurgl, and most of the other Austrian glaciers) sitting pretty much right on it - ie right in the main alpine ridge.

But to be clear that's a VERY rough annotation (probably Zermatt should be right on the line, for example?). Point is mostly just to show that location relative to the main alpine ridge is key to where snow comes from for a given resort, less so whether x resort is geographically north or south of another. Like Chamonix compared to Dolomites resorts - Cham is south of the Dolomites, but gets snow when it comes from the north (as well as west/etc) due to being on the north side of the ridge, whereas the Dolomites need snow to come from the south, located as they are south of the main alpine ridge.

I'm not particularly familiar with Zillertal, but I assume it works like Obergurgl and Stubai - gets snow whether it comes from north or south, but usually a bit less from either direction than a resort earlier in the firing line would. Mayrhofen itself I would think does much better in a nordstau than when snow comes from the south.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
SNOWjan


Last edited by You know it makes sense. on Wed 15-01-20 22:18; edited 2 times in total
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@sussexmartlet, what are the orange bits?
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
HutToHut wrote:
@sussexmartlet, what are the orange bits?


My apologies, I have updated the image
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Quote:

@sussexmartlet, what are the orange bits?

Snow
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Thought they might be sniw, but the bits over Spain put me off. Ta.
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HutToHut wrote:
Thought they might be sniw, but the bits over Spain put me off. Ta.


Spain gets a lot of snow.

The orange bit also says "schnee" (German for snow) on the chart.
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@Whitegold, sussexmartlet kindly edited the picture to include the legend which cleared it all up.
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Greetings weather gurus,

i booked Val D'Isere from friday 24th Jan for 7 days skiing but tbh I'm regretting not holding off on location, as looking at latest forecasts any freshies seem to be most likely in the Northern Alps.

Any sign of the Jet Stream moving significantly south by Jan 25th say? so we might get a few cold fronts perhaps??
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@horgand,
Val d’isere is in the Northern Alps
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Laughing
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horgand wrote:
Greetings weather gurus,

i booked Val D'Isere from friday 24th Jan for 7 days skiing but tbh I'm regretting not holding off on location, as looking at latest forecasts any freshies seem to be most likely in the Northern Alps.

Any sign of the Jet Stream moving significantly south by Jan 25th say? so we might get a few cold fronts perhaps??


What type of skiing are you into.....? If It’s deep off piste powder that you are after them I’m afraid the whole of Europe won’t satisfy ya.....if it’s more on piste floats your boat then val d’isere should more than satisfy you...... Very Happy
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In the absence of @nozawaonsen's expertise, here's the situation as I understand it for this weekend's snowfall and beyond. Essentially the summary I gave on p. 35 of this thread still sounds about right, but it also looks like northern Austria could also do well as the cold front gets slowed down by high pressure east of the Alps. Going somewhat out on a limb, I would currently hazard a guess at a moderate snowfall (possibly 20-40cm quite widely) for most of France, most of Switzerland away from the far south, and most of Austria away from the far south. Could be more, could be less. Less snow on the south side of the Alpine ridge (basically Italy), and the retour d'est scenario currently looks less likely. Generally cold enough for snow at all levels, except at the start of the storm.

Next week pressure quickly rises. Temperatures also lift after a cold start to the week.

Towards next weekend the latest GFS runs are beginning to look interesting. After a 12Z hinting at cold and snow from the 24th, the 18Z run is even colder and snowier for the N (particularly NW) Alps. The operational run is especially cold, which will lead to some misplaced Snowforecast.com excitement for those with access to the full 12 day detail. However, there's fairly good agreement on cold and snow (just less extreme) from the other ensemble members too. Let's see if it crops up tomorrow as well.

@horgand, I think you have reason to be cautiously optimistic, especially in comparison to the rest of this month so far. And yes, Val d'Isere is in the northern Alps - though in fact due to its position near the Italian border it can do well from storms from both the NW and SE.


Last edited by Ski the Net with snowHeads on Thu 16-01-20 1:31; edited 1 time in total
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Unlikely to need chains this weekend.

But the latest 18z (pub run) for next weekend is different

gfs-0-234

@denfinella seems to have the measure of it, another tasty Op run within the realm of possibilities, notwithstanding the fact that anything seems possible at 1:28 in the morning
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For those coming across the pond to get their snow fix, it's been a very good cycle of storms coming off the Pacific the past week. One right after the other. Things will calm down after this weekend. Then maybe ramp up again after the 25th of January. A bit to far out to know for sure.

The below satellite image is from Wed. afternoon. Should deliver a solid 50cm or so to the BC Coast Range and the North Cascade range. Will work its way across the interior BC and into Northern Idaho and Montana. Might brush the Tetons as well around Friday.

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I am not sure I would be as optimistic from a snow perspective as @denfinella. Light to moderate falls this weekend at all levels and all areas seem very likely with perhaps the heaviest falls (but still relatively light) in the Berner Oberland and some other north western spots. The situation is very fluid and it might be there is a "retour d'este" effect in the southern Italian / French mountains. This is only a short interlude to a typical winter high pressure weather pattern, which continues next week though probably rather less mild than of late. There does appear to be a chance the pattern will break in around week's time but how much change there will be and how much snow is, as always, not clear. There is every chance the potential snowy period next weekend will be another short interlude in the basic stable weather pattern. Hate to say this but the weather we have had does fit very well with the various long term forecasts from the autumn which all suggested a mild winter and the evidence is for that to continue Sad
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
clarky999 wrote:
@ribblevalleyblue, as @buchanan101 said, Mayrhofen and most of Zillertal just above it, but the valley snakes south with Hintertux glacier (like Stubai, Sölden, Obergurgl, and most of the other Austrian glaciers) sitting pretty much right on it - ie right in the main alpine ridge.

But to be clear that's a VERY rough annotation (probably Zermatt should be right on the line, for example?). Point is mostly just to show that location relative to the main alpine ridge is key to where snow comes from for a given resort, less so whether x resort is geographically north or south of another. Like Chamonix compared to Dolomites resorts - Cham is south of the Dolomites, but gets snow when it comes from the north (as well as west/etc) due to being on the north side of the ridge, whereas the Dolomites need snow to come from the south, located as they are south of the main alpine ridge.

I'm not particularly familiar with Zillertal, but I assume it works like Obergurgl and Stubai - gets snow whether it comes from north or south, but usually a bit less from either direction than a resort earlier in the firing line would. Mayrhofen itself I would think does much better in a nordstau than when snow comes from the south.


Indeed, at the Top Mountain Star in Obergurgl you can look down on the Dolomites - you know you are on the main ridge. I think Obergurgl did very well back in November with the snow coming from the south.
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munich_irish wrote:
I am not sure I would be as optimistic... Sad



http://youtube.com/v/Xyh-JpWdGmQ

Looks like 10-20cm pretty widely to low levels. Nice.

12z GFS control went deep cold following weekend as an outlier, 18z op did the same, today it’s the 00z control. Interesting, but would need to start developing consistency.
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Hmmm, I think I've over invested in Italy. I'm off to Sestriere in a week for a lads weekend and then to Aosta valley over feb half term on a dads and daughters week. I t started off very promising in Nov and Dec, but I think i'm correct in saying no snow since and only a light dusting forecast for this weekend, and light (and snow storms) on the horizon?
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@nozawaonsen, its not negative waves we need but a negative NAO Very Happy
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Nozawaonsen, is there a Genoa low, anywhere on the horizon
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@dublin2, There is a suggestion of a Genoa low on Saturday see https://www.wetteronline.de/?pid=p_modell_expert&ireq=true&src=modell/vermarktung/wom/analyse/analyse2wom/ukmo/2020/01/16/ukmo_p048_2020011600_small.jpg . However the number crunching computers at the UK met office dont appear to predict it will develop in such a way to bring a lot of snow to the southern alps https://www.wetteronline.de/?pid=p_modell_expert&ireq=true&src=modell/vermarktung/wom/analyse/analyse2wom/ukmo/2020/01/16/ukmo_p084_2020011600_small.jpg but maybe it will happen in a different way or my interpretation of the squiggles on the map is wrong.
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munich_irish wrote:
@nozawaonsen, its not negative waves we need but a negative NAO Very Happy


Smile
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https://www.meteoalpes.fr/bulletin/alpes-du-nord/

Friday, January 17, 2020:

Disturbed. The sky is rapidly cloudy from the west as the morning progresses after the lightening of the day (especially near Italy). In the afternoon it will be mostly cloudy all over the place with precipitation beginning on the western edge of the region. They become widespread at the end of the day and then escape through the high mountains at night.
It snows above 1500/1600 meters then quickly 1000/1100 meters and even 800/1000 meters in the evening. 10 to 25 cm of snow is expected above 1500 metres from east to west.

Saturday, January 18, 2020:

Variable. A few clouds still hang the reliefs in the middle-mountain at the beginning of the day and then dissipate as the morning passes good moments of sunshine. The moments of sunshine are thwarted by high cloudy passages in the afternoon but the atmosphere remains quite bright.
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A bit FI but looks like from 24 to 25th a pattern change in a good way. For approx schladming, eastern on north alps

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_1447_ens.png
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Those GFS Op snow charts were clearly over-doing it last week, forecasting 50-70cm for parts of west and north, depending on the run. Here's the sober reality when re-aligned to other models....

96-24

Still likely to change a bit, so should look more at short term models for each area.....WRF, Arome, Arpege, along with GFS /ECM data

The GFS is very good at picking out snowy potential, often 10 days away, as shown recently.....but as there are 4 runs a day, you can nearly always find what you're looking for.
I prefer to look at ECM and GFS mean anomalies beyond a week for the general northern hemisphere pattern, and then you know whether the various Op runs fit the envelope of likely possibilities.

So at the moment the 8-10 day pattern shows potential for NW-SE flow next weekend, although ECM on the left still leaves enough high pressure in France to divert all the flow to the eastern end (central europe).
GFS more widespread for northern alps.

test8

Further out into the last week of January, NW alps snow is more guaranteed Cool as my snow magnet mates arrive 29th for a week.....GEFS ensembles are looking lively and here's the latest ECM mean ensemble graph (25th-30th), showing what I was hoping for....vortex is much better for us when displaced to Siberian side (as opposed to its usual residence over Canada / Greenland = +NAO)

ECMWF-ENSEMBLE-AVG-NHEMI-Z500-ANOM-5-DAY-0342400-PNG-8-C4-D20696963570-C4-DF2701-A22-B00363

Whatever the NAO is doing though, we seem to get enough snow to ski to villages at 1200m in the NW every season.

I'll leave you with links for those that like to monitor background signals.....will probably have less time / interest for detailed weather posts for a while....you know, skiing and stuff

Zonal winds in the strat....want to see the red forecast line trend lower to increase chance of northern blocking in Feb/Mar. Looks like we've peaked for the season....at a near record strength yesterday.
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime/u_65N_10hpa.png

MJO forecast (GFS version)....want to see the green forecast lines reach phases 7 / 8 / 1 and stay elevated (ie near the edges of chart, and not sink into the circle of death in the middle)......again these 2 things increase likelihood of favourable high lat blocking. Phase 6 isn't too bad either, and thankfully we've just exited the worst 2 phases ( 4 and 5 where flat zonal westerlies are likely in europe)
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast
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“GFS ensembles now in agreement w operational completing a troposphere-stratosphere-troposphere coupling strong #PolarVortex/positive Arctic Oscillation (AO) event with positive AO predicted for late Jan & early Feb that favors an overall mild pattern across the N Hemisphere

...

To further elaborate completion of this troposphere-stratosphere coupling favors multiple weeks of positive #Arctic Oscillaton and overall mild weather and relatively light #snowfall. At this point hard for #winter to recover.”

https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1217802564928000001?s=21

https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1217805287945621504?s=21

Winter’s not looking good in the long term Sad
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